UK Public Private Partnerships and the Credit Crunch: A Case of Risk Contagion?

During the past twenty years, the UK has relied heavily on Public Private Partnerships (PPP) and especially the Private Finance Initiative in the procurement of infrastructure and services. Discussing the causes of the credit crunch and its effects on PPP, this paper notes that the provision of new public sector infrastructure and related services has been adversely affected by the impact of the credit crunch on Private Finance Initiatives (PFIs). These problems have arisen primarily from the unwillingness of commercial banks to replace collapsed PFI bond financing unless new PFI contracts reduce financial risks; which, in turn, is likely to increase the cost of these projects to the public sector. Additional financial strains have arisen for the UK government from the need to bail out collapsed PFI projects. Overall we find evidence that the UK commitment to PFI has not only increased immediate fiscal pressures on the UK when these have become least palatable, but has also created fiscal vulnerabilities at local and national levels which are likely to hamper the country’s ability to launch counter-cyclical responses to the ongoing crisis.

Realist Evaluation: a theory driven approach.

Realistic Evaluation assumes that all programmes implemented in practice have an underlying theory to explain how a particular intervention is meant to work. The purpose of realist evaluation is to test the theoretical propositions underpinning the implementation of a programme in order to understand how and why it works, or might not work, in certain circumstances. The first stage of the realist evaluation is to track and articulate the programme theories to determine the evidence on the ‘official conjecture’ (Pawson et al 2004 pg 16) of how the programme is suppose to work in practice. These official conjectures are then tested and refined by gathering empirical evidence to establish causal relationships between a programme and its outcome. Evaluation of the factors and interactions between factors, supporting or hindering the implementation of a programme in practice facilitate theory refinement. Theory refinement is viewed as an iterative and cyclical process undertaken to synthesise the empirical evidence and develop mid-range theories which can be generalised and applied to other programmes to improve implementation and sustainability. In this symposium an example of realist evaluation used to test and refine the theory underpinning the implementation of Early Warning Systems (EWS) is provided to clarify how this theory driven approach can be applied in practice.

The Baltic Dry Index: cyclicalities, forecasting and hedging strategies

The cyclical properties of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and their implications for forecasting performance are investigated. We find that changes in the BDI can lead to permanent shocks to trade of major exporting economies. In our forecasting exercise, we show that commodities and trigonometric regression can lead to improved predictions and then use our forecasting results to perform an investment exercise and to show how they can be used for improved risk management in the freight sector.

Development of a novel immersive interactive virtual reality cricket simulator for cricket batting

Research in the field of sports performance is constantly developing new technology to help extract meaningful data to aid in understanding in a multitude of areas such as improving technical or motor performance. Video playback has previously been extensively used for exploring anticipatory behaviour. However, when using such systems, perception is not active. This loses key information that only emerges from the dynamics of the action unfolding over time and the active perception of the observer. Virtual reality (VR) may be used to overcome such issues. This paper presents the architecture and initial implementation of a novel VR cricket simulator, utilising state of the art motion capture technology (21 Vicon cameras capturing kinematic profile of elite bowlers) and emerging VR technology (Intersense IS-900 tracking combined with Qualisys Motion capture cameras with visual display via Sony Head Mounted Display HMZ-T1), applied in a cricket scenario to examine varying components of decision and action for cricket batters. This provided an experience with a high level of presence allowing for a real-time egocentric view-point to be presented to participants. Cyclical user-testing was carried out, utilisng both qualitative and quantitative approaches, with users reporting a positive experience in use of the system.

Polarimetry In Radar Backscattering from Soil and Vegetated Surfaces

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015

The Asia Minor Greek adpositional cycle: a tale of multiple causation

This paper examines the interplay of language-internal continuity and external influence in the cyclical development of the Asia Minor Greek adpositional system. The Modern Greek dialects of Asia Minor inherited an adpositional system of the Late Medieval Greek type whereby secondary adpositions regularly combined with primary adpositions to encode spatial region. Secondary adpositions could originally precede simple adpositions ([PREPOSITION + PREPOSITION + NPACC]) or follow the adpositional complement ([PREPOSITION + NPACC + POSTPOSITION]). Asia Minor Greek replicated the structure of Ottoman Turkish postpositional phrases to resolve this variability, fixing the position of secondary adpositions after the complement and thus developing circumpositions of the type [PREPOSITION + NPACC + POSTPOSITION]. Later, some varieties dropped the primary preposition SE from circumpositional phrases, leaving (secondary) postpositions as the only overt relator ([NPACC + POSTPOSITION]) in some environments. In addition, a number of Turkish postpositions were borrowed wholesale, thus enriching the Greek adpositional inventory.

Conditional probability applied to the definition of limestone geochemical facies: A new Methodological Approach

A new method, based on linear correlation and phase diagrams was successfully developed for processes like the sedimentary process, where the deposition phase can have different time duration - represented by repeated values in a series - and where the erosion can play an important rule deleting values of a series. The sampling process itself can be the cause of repeated values - large strata twice sampled - or deleted values: tiny strata fitted between two consecutive samples. What we developed was a mathematical procedure which, based upon the depth chemical composition evolution, allows the establishment of frontiers as well as the periodicity of different sedimentary environments. The basic tool isn't more than a linear correlation analysis which allow us to detect the existence of eventual evolution rules, connected with cyclical phenomena within time series (considering the space assimilated to time), with the final objective of prevision. A very interesting discovery was the phenomenon of repeated sliding windows that represent quasi-cycles of a series of quasi-periods. An accurate forecast can be obtained if we are inside a quasi-cycle (it is possible to predict the other elements of the cycle with the probability related with the number of repeated and deleted points). We deal with an innovator methodology, reason why it's efficiency is being tested in some case studies, with remarkable results that shows it's efficacy. Keywords: sedimentary environments, sequence stratigraphy, data analysis, time-series, conditional probability.

Relatório de estágio em ensino do 1º ciclo do ensino básico

O presente relatório de estágio de qualificação profissional para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Educação Pré-Escolar e Ensino do 1.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico pretende refletir o percurso realizado em dois momentos de estágio, um desenvolvido em contexto de educação pré-escolar, com um grupo de crianças entre o 4 e os 5 anos, e o outro no ensino do 1.º ciclo do ensino básico, com uma turma do 3.º ano de escolaridade. A opção metodológica recaiu sobre a investigação-ação, que implica uma atitude de reflexão constante, tendo em vista a melhoria da ação educativa e o desenvolvimento profissional da formanda. Esta metodologia é cíclica, integrando diferentes fases, como a observação, planificação, ação, reflexão e avaliação. De forma a apoiar esta metodologia foram utilizadas estratégias formativas, como o estágio em díade, os guiões de pré-observação, a grelha de observação do ambiente educativo, as narrativas colaborativas e individuais, as planificações, a supervisão institucional e a avaliação reguladora. O presente relatório encontra-se dividido em três capítulos, sendo o primeiro de enquadramento teórico e conceptual, no qual se convocam autores e documentos legais para fundamentar a componente prática, o segundo de caracterização da instituição e meio envolvente e o terceiro de apresentação e análise das práticas desenvolvidas em contexto de estágio, enfatizando o desenvolvimento das competências profissionais. Em suma, a realização dos estágios em contextos distintos permitiu um desenvolvimento pessoal e profissional, que deverá continuar a ser um enfoque através da formação contínua

Relatório de estágio

No presente relatório é explanado o desenvolvimento profissional da formanda durante a prática pedagógica supervisionada em Educação Pré- Escolar (com crianças dos três aos seis anos) e na prática pedagógica supervisionada no 1.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico (com um grupo do 3.º ano). Neste documento, a formanda procurou descrever, analisar e refletir acerca da sua prática, evidenciando o seu desenvolvimento e dificuldades sentidas e as potencialidades do trabalho cooperativo e colaborativo. Durante as práticas pedagógicas supervisionadas a formanda mobilizou a metodologia de investigação-ação, com as suas etapas inerentes (observação, planificação, ação, avaliação e reflexão), o que possibilitou o seu desenvolvimento pessoal e profissional, ao ser desenvolvida de forma cíclica e continuada e articulando-se com a estratégia do portefólio de formação. O portefólio de formação, desenvolvido no percurso dos estágios, possibilitou a reflexão crítica por parte da formanda acerca do contexto e atividades propostas, bem como a observação e reflexão acerca do seu próprio desenvolvimento. Assim, esta formação inicial de docentes fomentou a aquisição e mobilização de competências e conhecimentos científicos, pedagógicos e didáticos, basilares para o desempenho proficiente da prática docente. Efetivamente as práticas pedagógicas supervisionadas possibilitaram à formanda a mobilização de uma postura investigativa e reflexiva, promotoras do desenvolvimento de competências e conhecimentos profissionais fundamentais e melhoria gradual da sua prática. Ressalva-se, no entanto, a importância da formação contínua da formanda, através da mobilização das características da metodologia de investigação-ação visando

Relatório de estágio

O presente relatório de qualificação profissional, como requisito (parcial) para obtenção do grau de mestre em Educação Pré-Escolar e Ensino do 1.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico, é o reflexo dos saberes e competências profissionais adquiridas pelas experiências vividas durante a prática pedagógica supervisionada, desenvolvida em dois contextos de estágio: Educação Pré- Escolar e 1.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico. Ao longo desta formação inicial a mestranda adquiriu saberes científicos, pedagógicos, didáticos, culturais e de investigação que lhe possibilitaram o desenvolvimento de práticas sustentadas. A interação entre os saberes teóricos mobilizados e a reflexão sobre a prática, possibilitaram a construção de um quadro teórico próprio, com visão e pensamento pessoal, permitindo à futura profissional de educação melhorar e transformar a prática educativa, agindo nos contextos de forma adequada, visando a inclusão e equidade. Através da adoção de uma postura crítica, reflexiva e indagadora, apoiada nos processos da metodologia de investigação-ação – observação, planificação, ação, reflexão e avaliação – a mestranda desenvolveu a práxis de forma cíclica e articulada. Com efeito, a mestranda procurou desenvolver práticas que promovessem aprendizagens significativas e efetivas para as diferentes crianças e que lhes permitissem ser construtoras ativas do seu próprio conhecimento, numa perspetiva holística da educação e do desenvolvimento da criança, encarando-a como centro do processo de ensino e aprendizagem. Em conformidade, os estágios desenvolvidos em ambos os contextos permitiram a construção de um perfil generalista, através do desenvolvimento de competências marcadas por uma (re)construção pessoal e profissional, auxiliadas por processos colaborativos e reflexivos.

Tax policy stance over the business cycle: evidence from Europe

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Launching platforms for user-generated content

Field lab: Entrepreneurial and innovative ventures

Self, mémoire épisodique et narration chez l'enfant de 6 à 9 ans

Le self est une notion polysémique qui fait l'objet d'un consensus relatif dans plusieurs domaines, dont la psychologie du développement. Elle rend compte de la faculté de s'éprouver le même au fil du temps et de distinguer le « je » qui regarde du « moi » regardé. C'est le garant d'un sens de soi plus ou moins cohérent au fil du temps, en dépit des changements qui surviennent au cours de la vie. Le self combine des processus de réflexivité et d'intersubjectivité. Nous en avons analysé trois composantes fonctionnelles : la mémoire de travail, la mémoire épisodique et la narration, à partir d'un protocole expérimental témoignant de son ontogenèse chez des enfants de 6 à 9 ans (n=24 répartis en deux groupes de 6‐7 et 8-9 ans). Nous avons créé le « jeu informatique du lutin » qui propose un parcours semiorienté dans un monde imaginaire. C'est une narration de soi, opérant la mise en sens des temporalités et des espaces auxquels les événements se réfèrent. Deux semaines après cette « aventure », on recueille la narration des souvenirs épisodiques de cette histoire. Nous avons également utilisé un test de mémoire de travail visuospatiale non verbale. Des différences développementales affectent les dimensions narratives de la mémoire de l'épisode du jeu, comme l'efficacité de la mémoire de travail visuospatiale. Ces développements témoignent d'une augmentation de « l'épaisseur temporelle de la conscience» entre 6 et 9 ans. L'épaisseur de la conscience renvoie fondamentalement à la faculté du self de vivre le temps dans une cyclicité incluant le passé, le présent et le futur anticipé. Le développment observé élargit les possibilités de mettre en lien des mémoires et des scénarios futurs, tout comme les mises en sens des relations aux autres et à soi-­même. Self is a polysemic concept of common use in various scientific fields, among which developmental psychology. It accounts for the capacity to maintain the conviction to be « oneself », always the same through circumstances and throughout my life. This important function contributes in maintaining coherence and some sorte of Ariadne's thread in memory. To analyse the ontogeny of the self, we have focused upon three components : working memory, episodic memory and narration in children aged between 6 and 9 years. We used a non verbal working memory task. It was completed by a video game specially designed for our purpose, in which children were engaged in moving an elf in a landscape changing through seasons, in order to deliver a princess from a mischievous wizard. Two weeks after the game, the children had to tell what happened while they moved the elf. It is a self-narrative that creates a link‐up of temporality and spaces to which the events refer. The narrated episode was assessed for its coherence and continuity dimensions. Developmental differences affect the narrative dimensions of the memory of the episode of the game, as the effectiveness of visuospatial working memory. These developments show an increase in "temporal thickness of consciousness" between 6 and 9 years. The thickness of consciousness basically refers to the ability of the self to live in a cyclical time including past, present and anticipated future. The observed development broadens the possibilities to link memories and future scenarios, like setting sense of relations with others and with oneself.

Female administrators and the mentors who give them full support /

A looming attrition rate, a steady increase in the number of women in administration, and a lack of Canadian research all provided the rationale for this study. The problem in this study was to investigate the needs and challenges of new female administrators and to examine the role that mentors play in addressing these issues. This study also explored the perceived benefits of having a mentor. This study examined the inductive year of 33 female administrators from 3 Ontario school boards. It was a qualitative and quantitative design, using questionnaire and interview data. It was found that the majority felt that they struggled with biases and expectations that were gender specific. The challenges that were perceived to be most prevalent were categorized into 4 thematic areas: Maintaining Balance, Feeling Pressured, The Perceptions of Others, and Being Challenged by Others. Regarding the benefits of mentoring, the participants perceived mentoring to be most beneficial in terms of professional growth, followed by learning how to run a school, and then career advancement. The significance of this study was threefold: it had theoretical implications as well as implications for practice and future research. Suggestions included: facilitating longitudinal relationships, having the board become more actively involved in facilitating the relationship, and implementing an internship program. This study attempted to extend the current literature by theorizing that a mentorship is cyclical in nature. Future research could include program design and implementation, as well as providing consistent and accessible mentoring opportunities for all.

The seasons of Zarathustra and their correspondence to the metamorphoses of the spirit

Nietzsche employed metaphors frequently throughout his works. This is especially true in Thus Spoke Zarathustra. Although this is often aesthetically pleasing, it can be very difficult for the reader to understand the nuances and interconnections with the various metaphors. This is generally considered one of the main drawbacks of Thus Spoke Zarathustra. While it is beautifully written in a style that is incomparable today, much of what it is attempting to communicate is lost on the reader. This thesis explores the connection between the metamorphoses of the spirit and the seasons in Thus'Spoke Zarathustra, with the camel spirit corresponding to autumn, the lion spirit with winter, the child spirit with spring, and finally the Overman with summer. Although the Overman is not included among the three metamorphoses of the spirit, it will be argued that the Overman is a separate metamorphosis and must not be conflated with the child spirit despite their similarities. While Thus Spoke Zarathustra will be the primary text used, Nietzsche's other works will be employed to demonstrate that this connection between the metamorphoses of the spirit and the seasons runs through much of his thought. By demonstrating how the seasons are used in Thus Spoke Zarathustra, a deeper understanding of the work will be revealed. Further, this thesis will demonstrate that it is an intentional connection, and not merely coincidental or something that has been constructed and imposed upon the work. Bringing this correspondence between the metamorphoses of the spirit and the seasons to light will result in the need to rethink particular notions of Nietzsche's philosophy. The most apparent involves the Overman and the process of overcoming. Although the Overman has often been viewed as "the end" in the cycle of metamorphoses, it will be argued that this is not the case. The typical interpretation of the metamorphoses of the spirit regard it as a linear progression; however, it will be shown that the metamorphoses of the spirit is cyclical with the camel, lion, and child spirits endlessly repeating, much like the seasons.