Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? a Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence

This paper tests the predictions of the Barro-Gordon model using US data on inflation and unemployment. To that end, it constructs a general game-theoretical model with asymmetric preferences that nests the Barro-Gordon model and a version of Cukierman’s model as special cases. Likelihood Ratio tests indicate that the restriction imposed by the Barro-Gordon model is rejected by the data but the one imposed by the version of Cukierman’s model is not. Reduced-form estimates are consistent with the view that the Federal Reserve weights more heavily positive than negative unemployment deviations from the expected natural rate.

Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S.

This paper derives optimal monetary policy rules in setups where certainty equivalence does not hold because either central bank preferences are not quadratic, and/or the aggregate supply relation is nonlinear. Analytical results show that these features lead to sign and size asymmetries, and nonlinearities in the policy rule. Reduced-form estimates indicate that US monetary policy can be characterized by a nonlinear policy rule after 1983, but not before 1979. This finding is consistent with the view that the Fed's inflation preferences during the Volcker-Greenspan regime differ considerably from the ones during the Burns-Miller regime.

The Effect of Public Spending on Consumption: Reconciling Theory and Evidence

Recent empirical evidence from vector autoregressions (VARs) suggests that public spending shocks increase (crowd in) private consumption. Standard general equilibrium models predict the opposite. We show that a standard real business cycle (RBC) model in which public spending is chosen optimally can rationalize the crowding-in effect documented in the VAR literature. When such a model is used as a data-generating process, a VAR estimated using the artificial data yields a positive consumption response to an increase in public spending, consistent with the empirical findings. This result holds regardless of whether private and public purchases are complements or substitutes.

Conflict-induced poverty: Evidence from Colombia

En Colombia, la pobreza y el conflicto están estrechamente relacionados. Este estudio usa medidas de disuasión del gobierno como instrumentos de varias variables específicas de conflicto para estimar el impacto del conflicto sobre la pobreza en Colombia. Usando datos del censo a nivel municipal para el año 2005, evalúo el efecto sobre la incidencia urbana y rural del recientemente-desarrollado Índice de Pobreza Multidimensional. Los resultados sugieren que el conflicto aumenta significativamente la pobreza rural. Esto es consistente con el hecho que la mayor parte del conflicto en Colombia ocurre en las áreas rurales. También evalúo el efecto rezagado del conflicto en la pobreza para concluir que éste dura por al menos tres años pero que decae en el tiempo. Finalmente, pruebo que mis resultados son robustos a una batería de especificaciones adicionales, incluyendo una versión modificada de mi variable dependiente y el uso de una base alternativa de conflicto.

Genome-wide evidence for speciation with gene flow in Heliconius butterflies

Most speciation events probably occur gradually, without complete and immediate reproductive isolation, but the full extent of gene flow between diverging species has rarely been characterized on a genome-wide scale. Documenting the extent and timing of admixture between diverging species can clarify the role of geographic isolation in speciation. Here we use new methodology to quantify admixture at different stages of divergence in Heliconius butterflies, based on whole-genome sequences of 31 individuals. Comparisons between sympatric and allopatric populations of H. melpomene, H. cydno, and H. timareta revealed a genome-wide trend of increased shared variation in sympatry, indicative of pervasive interspecific gene flow. Up to 40% of 100-kb genomic windows clustered by geography rather than by species, demonstrating that a very substantial fraction of the genome has been shared between sympatric species. Analyses of genetic variation shared over different time intervals suggested that admixture between these species has continued since early in speciation. Alleles shared between species during recent time intervals displayed higher levels of linkage disequilibrium than those shared over longer time intervals, suggesting that this admixture took place at multiple points during divergence and is probably ongoing. The signal of admixture was significantly reduced around loci controlling divergent wing patterns, as well as throughout the Z chromosome, consistent with strong selection for Müllerian mimicry and with known Z-linked hybrid incompatibility. Overall these results show that species divergence can occur in the face of persistent and genome-wide admixture over long periods of time.

Evidence of induced innovation in US Sectoral Capital’s Shares

We use annual data on capital’s share and relative factor prices from 35 US industries from 1960 to 2005 to test the induced innovation hypothesis. We derive, from a production function framework, testable implications for the effect of contemporaneous and lagged factor price ratios on capital’s share of production. The predicted effect is positive or negative depending on the elasticity of substitution between labor and capital. From panel regressions, the estimated effect of the contemporaneous factor price ratio implies an elasticity of substitution that is less than unity, consistent with the consensus from the literature. Based on this, our negative estimated effects for lagged price ratios are both statistically significant and consistent with the induced innovation hypothesis.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.

Evidence Suggesting that Ivory-billed Woodpeckers (Campephilus principalis) Exist in Florida

The Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) disappeared from the forests of southeastern North America in the early 20th Century and for more than 50 years has been widely considered extinct. On 21 May 2005, we detected a bird that we identified as an Ivory-billed Woodpecker in the mature swamp forest along the Choctawhatchee River in the panhandle of Florida. During a subsequent year of research, members of our small search team observed birds that we identified as Ivory-billed Woodpeckers on 14 occasions. We heard sounds that matched descriptions of Ivory-billed Woodpecker acoustic signals on 41 occasions. We recorded 99 putative double knocks and 210 putative kent calls. We located cavities in the size range reported for Ivory-billed Woodpeckers and larger than those of Pileated Woodpeckers (Dryocopus pileatus) that have been reported in the literature or that we measured in Alabama. We documented unique foraging signs consistent with the feeding behavior of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. Our evidence suggests that Ivory-billed Woodpeckers may be present in the forests along the Choctawhatchee River and warrants an expanded search of this bottomland forest habitat.

Diet and diversity at later medieval Fishergate: The isotopic evidence

We present the results of stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis of bone collagen for 155 individuals buried at the Later Medieval (13th to early 16th century AD) Gilbertine priory of St. Andrew, Fishergate in the city of York (UK). The data show significant variation in the consumption of marine foods between males and females as well as between individuals buried in different areas of the priory. Specifically, individuals from the crossing of the church and the cloister garth had consumed significantly less marine protein than those from other locations. Isotope data for four individuals diagnosed with diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis (DISH) are consistent with a diet rich in animal protein. We also observe that isotopic signals of individuals with perimortem sharp force trauma are unusual in the context of the Fishergate dataset. We discuss possible explanations for these patterns and suggest that there may have been a specialist hospital or a local tradition of burying victims of violent conflict at the priory. The results demonstrate how the integration of archaeological, osteological, and isotopic data can provide novel information about Medieval burial and society.

Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa

[ 1] There has been a paucity of information on trends in daily climate and climate extremes, especially from developing countries. We report the results of the analysis of daily temperature ( maximum and minimum) and precipitation data from 14 south and west African countries over the period 1961 - 2000. Data were subject to quality control and processing into indices of climate extremes for release to the global community. Temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming over most of the regions analyzed, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. Over 1961 to 2000, the regionally averaged occurrence of extreme cold ( fifth percentile) days and nights has decreased by - 3.7 and - 6.0 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme hot (95th percentile) days and nights has increased by 8.2 and 8.6 days/decade, respectively. The average duration of warm ( cold) has increased ( decreased) by 2.4 (0.5) days/decade and warm spells. Overall, it appears that the hot tails of the distributions of daily maximum temperature have changed more than the cold tails; for minimum temperatures, hot tails show greater changes in the NW of the region, while cold tails have changed more in the SE and east. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) does not exhibit a consistent trend across the region, with many neighboring stations showing opposite trends. However, the DTR shows consistent increases in a zone across Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, and Mozambique, coinciding with more rapid increases in maximum temperature than minimum temperature extremes. Most precipitation indices do not exhibit consistent or statistically significant trends across the region. Regionally averaged total precipitation has decreased but is not statistically significant. At the same time, there has been a statistically significant increase in regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity and dry spell duration. While the majority of stations also show increasing trends for these two indices, only a few of these are statistically significant. There are increasing trends in regionally averaged rainfall on extreme precipitation days and in maximum annual 5-day and 1-day rainfall, but only trends for the latter are statistically significant.

The neural processing of masked speech: Evidence for different mechanisms in the left and right temporal lobes

It has been previously demonstrated that extensive activation in the dorsolateral temporal lobes associated with masking a speech target with a speech masker, consistent with the hypothesis that competition for central auditory processes is an important factor in informational masking. Here, masking from speech and two additional maskers derived from the original speech were investigated. One of these is spectrally rotated speech, which is unintelligible and has a similar (inverted) spectrotemporal profile to speech. The authors also controlled for the possibility of “glimpsing” of the target signal during modulated masking sounds by using speech-modulated noise as a masker in a baseline condition. Functional imaging results reveal that masking speech with speech leads to bilateral superior temporal gyrus (STG) activation relative to a speech-in-noise baseline, while masking speech with spectrally rotated speech leads solely to right STG activation relative to the baseline. This result is discussed in terms of hemispheric asymmetries for speech perception, and interpreted as showing that masking effects can arise through two parallel neural systems, in the left and right temporal lobes. This has implications for the competition for resources caused by speech and rotated speech maskers, and may illuminate some of the mechanisms involved in informational masking.

Barley oxalate oxidase is a hexameric protein related to seed storage proteins: evidence from X-ray crystallography

The oxalate oxidase enzyme expressed in barley roots is a thermostable, protease-resistant enzyme that generates H2O2. It has great medical importance because of its use to assay plasma and urinary oxalate, and it has also been used to generate transgenic, pathogen-resistant crops. This protein has now been purified and three types of crystals grown. X-ray analysis shows that the symmetry present in these crystals is consistent with a hexameric arrangement of subunits, probably a trimer of dimers. This structure may be similar to that found in the related seed storage proteins.

Effect of Information about benefits of biotechnology on consumer acceptance of genetically modified food; evidence from experimental auctions in the United States, England, and France

This study investigates the effect of information about potential benefits of biotechnology on consumer acceptance of genetically modified (GM) foods. Consumer willingness to accept compensation to consume a GM food was elicited using an incentive compatible auction mechanism in three US states (California, Florida, and Texas) and in two European countries (England and France). Results indicate that information on environmental benefits, health benefits and benefits to the third world significantly decreased the amount of money consumers demanded to consume GM food; however, the effect of information varied by type of information and location. Consistent with prior research, we find that initial attitudes toward biotechnology have a significant effect on how individuals responded to new information.

Evidence for an inhibitory role of bone morphogenetic protein(s) in the follicular-luteal transition in cattle

Bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) and their receptors are expressed in ovarian theca cells (TC) and granulosa cells (GC) and BMPs have been implicated in the regulation of several aspects of follicle development including thecal androgen production and granulosal oestrogen production. Their potential involvement in luteal function has received less attention. in this study, we first compared relative abundance of mRNA transcripts for BMPs, activin-beta A and BMP/activin receptors in bovine corpus luteum (CL) and follicular theca and granulosa layers before undertaking functional in vitro experiments to test the effect of selected ligands (BMP6 and activin A) on luteinizing bovine TC and GC. Relative to P-actin transcript abundance, CL tissue contained more BMP4 and -6 mRNA than granulosa, more BMP2 mRNA than theca but much less activin-beta A mRNA than both granulosa and theca. Transcripts for all seven BMP/activin receptors were readily detected in each tissue and two transcripts (BMPRII, ActRIIA) were more abundant in CL than either theca or granulosa, consistent with tissue responsiveness. In vitro luteinization of TC and GC from antral follicles (4-6 mm) was achieved by culturing with 5% serum for 6 days. Treatment with BMP6 (0, 2, 10, and 50 ng/ml) and activin A (0, 2, 10 and 50 ng/ml) under these conditions dose-dependently suppressed forskolin-induced progesterone (P-4) secretion from both cell types without affecting cell number. BMP6 reduced forskolin-stimulated upregulation of STAR mRNA and raised 'basal' CYP17A1 mRNA level in theca-lutein cells without affecting expression of CYP11A1 or hydroxy-Delta-5-steroid dehydrogenase, 3 beta- and steroid Delta-isomerase 1 (HSD3B1). In granulosa-lutein cells, STAR transcript abundance was not affected by BMP6, whereas forskolin-induced expression of CYP11A1, HSD3B1, CYP19A1 and oxytocin transcripts was reduced. In both cell types, follistatin attenuated the suppressive effect of activin A and BMP6 on forskolin-induced P4 secretion but had no effect alone. Granulosa-lutein cells secreted low levels of endogenous activin A (similar to 1 ng/ml); BMP6 reduced this, while raising follistatin secretion thus decreasing activin A:follistatin ratio. Collectively, these findings support inhibitory roles for BMP/activin signalling in luteinization and steroidogenesis in both TC and GC.

Evidence for a reversal with age in the pattern of near-wall blood flow around aortic branches

The changes that occur with age in the distribution of atherosclerotic lesions around arterial branch points challenge accepted theories relating disease to haemodynamic stresses. We investigated whether flow near branch points changes with age in a way that can account for the different lesion distributions. Flow around 20 branches from immature and mature aortas was investigated by examining the length:width ratio and orientation of endothelial nuclei; these properties depend on the magnitude and direction of near-wall flows, respectively. There were significant changes in the pattern of nuclear shape with age, consistent with a reversal in the pattern of shear around branches. In control regions away from branches, there were no such changes. The role of haemodynamic stresses in atherogenesis may require re-evaluation in the light of these results. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.