Gasterosteus aculeatus egg traits and fish lengths vs. experiment setup

1) Our study addresses the role of non-genetic and genetic inheritance in shaping the adaptive potential of populations under a warming ocean scenario. We used a combined experimental approach (transgenerational plasticity and quantitative genetics) to partition the relative contribution of maternal vs. paternal (additive genetic) effects to offspring body size (a key component of fitness), and investigated a potential physiological mechanism (mitochondrial respiration capacities) underlying whole organism growth/size responses. 2) In very early stages of growth (up to 30 days), offspring body size of marine sticklebacks benefited from maternal transgenerational plasticity (TGP): offspring of mothers acclimated to17°C were larger when reared at 17°C, and offspring of mothers acclimated to 21°C were larger when reared at 21°C. The benefits of maternal TGP on body size were stronger and persisted longer (up to 60 days) for offspring reared in the warmer (21°C) environment, suggesting that maternal effects will be highly relevant for climate change scenarios in this system. 3) Mitochondrial respiration capacities measured on mature offspring (F1 adults) matched the pattern of TGP for juvenile body size, providing an intuitive mechanistic basis for the maternal acclimation persisting into adulthood. Size differences between temperatures seen at early growth stages remained in the F1 adults, linking offspring body size to maternal inheritance of mitochondria. 4) Lower maternal variance components in the warmer environment were mostly driven by mothers acclimated to ambient (colder) conditions, further supporting our tenet that maternal effects were stronger at elevated temperature. Importantly, all parent-offspring temperature combination groups showed genotype x environment (GxE) interactions, suggesting that reaction norms have the potential to evolve. 5) To summarise, transgenerational plasticity and genotype x environment interactions work in concert to mediate impacts of ocean warming on metabolic capacity and early growth of marine sticklebacks. TGP can buffer short-term detrimental effects of climate warming and may buy time for genetic adaptation to catch up, therefore markedly contributing to the evolutionary potential and persistence of populations under climate change.

Tree line shifts and disturbance events for sites studied in the Torneträsk area of sub-Arctic Sweden for the period 1800-2009

Aim: Models project that climate warming will cause the tree line to move to higher elevations in alpine areas and more northerly latitudes in Arctic environments. We aimed to document changes or stability of the tree line in a sub-Arctic model area at different temporal and spatial scales, and particularly to clarify the ambiguity that currently exists about tree line dynamics and their causes. Location: The study was conducted in the Tornetrask area in northern Sweden where climate warmed by 2.5 °C between 1913 and 2006. Mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) sets the alpine tree line. Methods: We used repeat photography, dendrochronological analysis, field observations along elevational transects and historical documents to study tree line dynamics. Results: Since 1912, only four out of eight tree line sites had advanced: on average the tree line had shifted 24 m upslope (+0.2 m/year assuming linear shifts). Maximum tree line advance was +145 m (+1.5 m/year in elevation and +2.7 m/year in actual distance), whereas maximum retreat was 120 m downslope. Counter-intuitively, tree line advance was most pronounced during the cooler late 1960s and 1970s. Tree establishment and tree line advance were significantly correlated with periods of low reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) population numbers. A decreased anthropozoogenic impact since the early 20th century was found to be the main factor shaping the current tree line ecotone and its dynamics. In addition, episodic disturbances by moth outbreaks and geomorphological processes resulted in descent and long-term stability of the tree line position, respectively. Main conclusions: In contrast to what is generally stated in the literature, this study shows that in a period of climate warming, disturbance may not only determine when tree line advance will occur but if tree line advance will occur at all. In the case of non-climatic climax tree lines, such as those in our study area, both climate-driven model projections of future tree line positions and the use of the tree line position for bioclimatic monitoring should be used with caution.

Geochemistry, grain sizes and radiocarbon age of sediment core Lz1005 from Amery Oasis, East Antarctica

The clay mineralogical composition of a 552 cm long sediment core from Lake Terrasovoje in Amery Oasis, East Antarctica, was analysed and compared with that in surface sediments from other locations in the vicinity. The lower part of the sediment core is formed by sub- and proglacial sediments with a dominance of smectite and illite, and lower amounts of kaolinite and chlorite. The upper part of the core is deposited after 12 500 cal yr bp and mainly composed of illite and kaolinite, with low amounts of smectite and chlorite, such as found in samples from rock outcrops and covering sediments throughout Amery Oasis. The clay composition in the lower section of core Lz1005 suggest that the basin of Lake Terrasovoje was filled by a 150-200 m thickened Nemesis Glacier prior to 12 500 cal yr bp rather than by local ice caps.

50 year means of oxygen isotope data from ice core NGRIP

Two deep ice cores from central Greenland, drilled in the 1990s, have played a key role in climate reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere, but the oldest sections of the cores were disturbed in chronology owing to ice folding near the bedrock. Here we present an undisturbed climate record from a North Greenland ice core, which extends back to 123,000 years before the present, within the last interglacial period. The oxygen isotopes in the ice imply that climate was stable during the last interglacial period, with temperatures 5 °C warmer than today. We find unexpectedly large temperature differences between our new record from northern Greenland and the undisturbed sections of the cores from central Greenland, suggesting that the extent of ice in the Northern Hemisphere modulated the latitudinal temperature gradients in Greenland. This record shows a slow decline in temperatures that marked the initiation of the last glacial period. Our record reveals a hitherto unrecognized warm period initiated by an abrupt climate warming about 115,000 years ago, before glacial conditions were fully developed. This event does not appear to have an immediate Antarctic counterpart, suggesting that the climate see-saw between the hemispheres (which dominated the last glacial period) was not operating at this time.

Fresh biomass of macroalgae collected at Hansneset, Kongsfjorden, Spitsbergen in 1996/1998

We surveyed macroalgae at Hansneset, Blomstrand in Kongsfjorden, Svalbard, down to 30 m depth between 1996 and 1998. In total, 62 species were identified: 16 Chlorophyta, 25 Phaeophyceae, and 21 Rhodophyta. The majority of species (53.5%) belonged to the Arctic cold-temperate group, followed in frequency by species distributed from the Arctic to the warm-temperate region (25.9%). Four endemic Arctic species (Laminaria solidungula, Acrosiphonia flagellata, A. incurva, and Urospora elongata) were found. Two species (Pogotrichum filiforme and Mikrosyphar polysiphoniae) were new to Svalbard. Chlorophyta, Phaeophyceae, and Rhodophyta extended from the eulittoral zone down to 11, 21, and >30 m depths with maximum biomasses at 1-5 m, 5-10 m, and 5-30 m depths, respectively. Annual and pseudoperennial species had highest biomasses in the upper 5 m, while perennials were distributed deeper. The highest biomass (8600 g/m**2 wet weight) at 5 m depth comprised mainly L. digitata, Saccorhiza dermatodea, Alaria esculenta, and Saccharina latissima. The biogeographic composition of macroalgae at Hansneset was rather similar to that of northeastern Greenland, but different from that of northern Norway, which has a higher proportion of temperate species. Climate warming and ship traffic may extend some of the distribution ranges of macroalgae from mainland Norway to Svalbard.

Mass balances of different sectors in Antarctica in 1996, 2000 and 2006

Large uncertainties remain in the current and future contribution to sea level rise from Antarctica. Climate warming may increase snowfall in the continent's interior, but enhance glacier discharge at the coast where warmer air and ocean temperatures erode the buttressing ice shelves. Here, we use satellite interferometric synthetic-aperture radar observations from 1992 to 2006 covering 85% of Antarctica's coastline to estimate the total mass flux into the ocean. We compare the mass fluxes from large drainage basin units with interior snow accumulation calculated from a regional atmospheric climate model for 1980 to 2004. In East Antarctica, small glacier losses in Wilkes Land and glacier gains at the mouths of the Filchner and Ross ice shelves combine to a near-zero loss of 4 ± 61 Gt/yr. In West Antarctica, widespread losses along the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas increased the ice sheet loss by 59% in 10 years to reach 132 ± 60 Gt/yr in 2006. In the Peninsula, losses increased by 140% to reach 60 ± 46 Gt/yr in 2006. Losses are concentrated along narrow channels occupied by outlet glaciers and are caused by ongoing and past glacier acceleration. Changes in glacier flow therefore have a significant, if not dominant impact on ice sheet mass balance.

Susceptibility, d13C and Iron of Site 171-1051

Current models of the global carbon cycle lack natural mechanisms to explain known large, transient shifts in past records of the stable carbon-isotope ratio (delta13C) of carbon reservoirs. The injection into the atmosphere of ~1,200-2,000 gigatons of carbon, as methane from the decomposition of sedimentary methane hydrates, has been proposed to explain a delta13C anomaly associated with high-latitude warming and changes in marine and terrestrial biota near the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary, about 55 million years ago. These events may thus be considered as a natural 'experiment' on the effects of transient greenhouse warming. Here we use physical, chemical and spectral analyses of a sediment core from the western North Atlantic Ocean to show that two-thirds of the carbon-isotope anomaly occurred within no more than a few thousand years, indicating that carbon was catastrophically released into the ocean and atmosphere. Both the delta13C anomaly and biotic changes began between 54.93 and 54.98 million years ago, and are synchronous in oceans and on land. The longevity of the delta13C anomaly suggests that the residence time of carbon in the Palaeocene global carbon cycle was ~120 thousand years, which is similar to the modelled response after a massive input of methane. Our results suggest that large natural perturbations to the global carbon cycle have occurred in the past-probably by abrupt failure of sedimentary carbon reservoirs-at rates that are similar to those induced today by human activity.

Paleoclimate investiations on sediment core PG1984 from Lake Sysy-Kyuele, northern Siberia

In northeastern Siberia, Russia, a 1.2 m sediment core was retrieved and radiocarbon dated from a small and shallow lake located at the western side of the lower Lena River (N 69°24', E 123°50', 81 m a.s.l.). The objective of this paper is to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental variability and to infer major palaeoclimate trends that have occurred since ~ 13.3 cal. kyrs BP. We analysed the diatom assemblages, sedimentology (grain size, total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN)), and the elemental and mineralogical composition using X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and X-ray diffractometry (XRD) of the sediment core. Our results show parallel changes in the diatom species composition and sediment characteristics. Enhanced minerogenic sediment input and the occurrence of pyrite is indicative of a cold period between ~ 12.7-11.6 cal. kyrs BP. The diatom data enable a qualitative inference about the local ecological conditions to be made, and reveal an oligotrophic lake system with alkaline and cold conditions during the earliest Holocene. Moderately warmer climates are inferred for the period from ~ 9.1 to 5.7 cal. kyrs BP. The major shift in the diatom assemblage, from dominance of small benthic fragilarioid taxa to a more complex diatom flora with an influx of several achnanthoid and naviculoid diatom species, occurred after a transitional period of about 1400 years (7.1 to 5.7 cal. kyrs BP) at ~ 5.7 cal. kyrs BP, indicating a circumneutral and warmer hydrological regime during the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM). Diatom valve concentrations declined starting ~ 2.8 cal. kyrs BP, but have been rising again since less than or equalt to 600 cal. years BP. This has occurred in parallel to the increased presence of acidophilous diatom taxa (e.g. Eunotia spp.) and decreased presence of small benthic fragilarioid species in the most recent sediments, which is interpreted as the result of neoglacial cooling and subsequent recent climate warming. Our findings are compared to other lake-inferred climate reconstructions along the Lena River. We conclude that the timing and spatial variability of the HTM in the lower Lena River area reveal a temporal delay from north to south.

Chironomid-inferred July-air temperature of Lago Piccolo di Avigliana

Chironomid headcapsules were used to reconstruct late glacial and early-Holocene summer temperatures at Lago Piccolo di Avigliana (LPA). Two training sets (northern Sweden, North America) were used to infer temperatures. The reconstructed patterns of temperature change agreed well with the GRIP and NGRIP d18O records. Inferred temperatures were high during the Bølling (ca 19 °C), slowly decreased to ca 17.5 °C during the Allerød, reached lowest temperatures (ca 16 °C) during the Younger Dryas, and increased to ca. 18.5 °C during the Preboreal. The amplitudes of change at climate transitions (i.e. Oldest Dryas/Bølling: 3 °C, Allerød/Younger Dryas: 1.5 °C, and Younger Dryas/Preboreal: 2.5 °C) were smaller than in the northern Alps but similar to those recorded at another site in northeastern Italy. Our results suggest that (1) Allerød temperatures were higher in the southern Alps and (2) higher during the Preboreal (1 °C) than during the Allerød. These differences might provide an explanation for the different responses of terrestrial-vegetation to late glacial and early-Holocene climatic changes in the two regions. Other sites on both sides of the Alps should be studied to confirm these two hypotheses.

Gridded results of swath bathymetric mapping of Disko Bay, Western Greenland, 2007-2008

A ship-based acoustic mapping campaign was conducted at the exit of Ilulissat Ice Fjord and in the sedimentary basin of Disko Bay to the west of the fjord mouth. Submarine landscape and sediment distribution patterns are interpreted in terms of glaciomarine facies types that are related to variations in the past position of the glacier front. In particular, asymmetric ridges that form a curved entity and a large sill at the fjord mouth may represent moraines that depict at least two relatively stable positions of the ice front in the Disko Bay and at the fjord mouth. In this respect, Ilulissat Glacier shows prominent differences to the East Greenland Kangerlussuaq Glacier which is comparable in present size and present role for the ice discharge from the inland ice sheet. Two linear clusters of pockmarks in the center of the sedimentary basin seem to be linked to ongoing methane release due to dissociation of gas hydrates, a process fueled by climate warming in the Arctic realm.

Remote Sensing of Vegetation Change Across a Latitudinal Gradient in the Canadian Arctic

Global air surface temperatures and precipitation have increased over the last several decades resulting in a trend of greening across the Circumpolar Arctic. The spatial variability of warming and the inherent effects on plant communities has not proven to be uniform or homogeneous on global or local scales. We can apply remote sensing vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to map and monitor vegetation change (e.g., phenology, greening, percent cover, and biomass) over time. It is important to document how Arctic vegetation is changing, as it will have large implications related to global carbon and surface energy budgets. The research reported here examined vegetation greening across different spatial and temporal scales at two disparate Arctic sites: Apex River Watershed (ARW), Baffin Island, and Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (CBAWO), Melville Island, NU. To characterize the vegetation in the ARW, high spatial resolution WorldView-2 data were processed to create a supervised land-cover classification and model percent vegetation cover (PVC) (a similar process had been completed in a previous study for the CBAWO). Meanwhile, NDVI data spanning the past 30 years were derived from intermediate resolution Landsat data at the two Arctic sites. The land-cover classifications at both sites were used to examine the Landsat NDVI time series by vegetation class. Climate variables (i.e., temperature, precipitation and growing season length (GSL) were examined to explore the potential relationships of NDVI to climate warming. PVC was successfully modeled using high resolution data in the ARW. PVC and plant communities appear to reside along a moisture and altitudinal gradient. The NDVI time series demonstrated an overall significant increase in greening at the CBAWO (High Arctic site), specifically in the dry and mesic vegetation type. However, similar overall greening was not observed for the ARW (Low Arctic site). The overall increase in NDVI at the CBAWO was attributed to a significant increase in July temperatures, precipitation and GSL.

Juniperus navicularis - a study of Portuguese population structure and fitness

Juniperus navicularis Gand. is a dioecious endemic conifer that constitutes the understory of seaside pine forests in Portugal, areas currently threatened by increasing urban expansion. The aim of this study is to assess the conservation status of previously known populations of this species located on its core area of distribution. The study was performed in south-west coast of Portugal. Three populations varying in size and pine density were analyzed. Number of individuals, population density, spatial distribution and individual characteristics of junipers were estimated. Female cone, seed characteristics and seed viability were also evaluated. Results suggest that J. navicularis populations are vulnerable because seminal recruitment is scarce, what may lead to a reduction of genetic variability due solely to vegetative propagation. This vulnerability seems to be strongly determined by climatic constraints toward increasing aridity. Ratio between male and female shrubs did not differ from 1:1 in any population. Deviations from 1:1 between mature and non-mature plants were found in all populations, denoting population ageing. Very low seed viability was observed. A major part of described Juniperus navicularis populations have disappeared through direct habitat loss to urban development, loss of fitness in drier and warmer locations and low seed viability. This study is the first to address J. navicularis conservation, and represents a valuable first step toward this species preservation. 

Historical comparisons reveal multiple drivers of decadal change of an ecosystem engineer at the range edge

Biogenic reefs are important for habitat provision and coastal protection. Long-term datasets on the distribution and abundance of Sabellaria alveolata (L.) are available from Britain. The aim of this study was to combine historical records and contemporary data to (1) describe spatiotemporal variation in winter temperatures, (2) document short-term and long-term changes in the distribution and abundance of S. alveolata and discuss these changes in relation to extreme weather events and recent warming, and (3) assess the potential for artificial coastal defense structures to function as habitat for S. alveolata. A semi-quantitative abundance scale (ACFOR) was used to compare broadscale, long-term and interannual abundance of S. alveolata near its range edge in NW Britain. S. alveolata disappeared from the North Wales and Wirral coastlines where it had been abundant prior to the cold winter of 1962/1963. Population declines were also observed following the recent cold winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Extensive surveys in 2004 and 2012 revealed that S. alveolata had recolonized locations from which it had previously disappeared. Furthermore, it had increased in abundance at many locations, possibly in response to recent warming. S. alveolata was recorded on the majority of artificial coastal defense structures surveyed, suggesting that the proliferation of artificial coastal defense structures along this stretch of coastline may have enabled S. alveolata to spread across stretches of unsuitable natural habitat. Long-term and broadscale contextual monitoring is essential for monitoring responses of organisms to climate change. Historical data and gray literature can be invaluable sources of information. Our results support the theory that Lusitanian species are responding positively to climate warming but also that short-term extreme weather events can have potentially devastating widespread and lasting effects on organisms. Furthermore, the proliferation of coastal defense structures has implications for phylogeography, population genetics, and connectivity of coastal populations.

Historical comparisons reveal multiple drivers of decadal change of an ecosystem engineer at the range edge

Biogenic reefs are important for habitat provision and coastal protection. Long-term datasets on the distribution and abundance of Sabellaria alveolata (L.) are available from Britain. The aim of this study was to combine historical records and contemporary data to (1) describe spatiotemporal variation in winter temperatures, (2) document short-term and long-term changes in the distribution and abundance of S. alveolata and discuss these changes in relation to extreme weather events and recent warming, and (3) assess the potential for artificial coastal defense structures to function as habitat for S. alveolata. A semi-quantitative abundance scale (ACFOR) was used to compare broadscale, long-term and interannual abundance of S. alveolata near its range edge in NW Britain. S. alveolata disappeared from the North Wales and Wirral coastlines where it had been abundant prior to the cold winter of 1962/1963. Population declines were also observed following the recent cold winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Extensive surveys in 2004 and 2012 revealed that S. alveolata had recolonized locations from which it had previously disappeared. Furthermore, it had increased in abundance at many locations, possibly in response to recent warming. S. alveolata was recorded on the majority of artificial coastal defense structures surveyed, suggesting that the proliferation of artificial coastal defense structures along this stretch of coastline may have enabled S. alveolata to spread across stretches of unsuitable natural habitat. Long-term and broadscale contextual monitoring is essential for monitoring responses of organisms to climate change. Historical data and gray literature can be invaluable sources of information. Our results support the theory that Lusitanian species are responding positively to climate warming but also that short-term extreme weather events can have potentially devastating widespread and lasting effects on organisms. Furthermore, the proliferation of coastal defense structures has implications for phylogeography, population genetics, and connectivity of coastal populations.