Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

Managing project risk using combined analytic hierarchy process and risk map

The main purpose of the study is to develop an integrated framework for managing project risks by analyzing risk across project, work package and activity levels, and developing responses. Design/methodology/approach: The study first reviews the literature of various contemporary risk management frameworks in order to identify gaps in project risk management knowledge. Then it develops a conceptual risk management framework using combined analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and risk map for managing project risks. The proposed framework has then been applied to a 1500 km oil pipeline construction project in India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. The concerned project stakeholders were involved through focus group discussions for applying the proposed risk management framework in the project under study. Findings: The combined AHP and risk map approach is very effective to manage project risks across project, work package and activity levels. The risk factors in project level are caused because of external forces such as business environment (e.g. customers, competitors, technological development, politics, socioeconomic environment). The risk factors in work package and activity levels are operational in nature and created due to internal causes such as lack of material and labor productivity, implementation issues, team ineffectiveness, etc. Practical implications: The suggested model can be applied to any complex project and helps manage risk throughout the project life cycle. Originality/value: Both business and operational risks constitute project risks. In one hand, the conventional project risk management frameworks emphasize on managing business risks and often ignore operational risks. On the other hand, the studies that deal with operational risk often do not link them with business risks. However, they need to be addressed in an integrated way as there are a few risks that affect only the specific level. Hence, this study bridges the gaps. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using AHP and the IPMA Competence Baseline in the project managers selection process

This paper proposes the joint use of the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and the ICB (IPMA Competence Baseline), as a tool for the decision-making process of selecting the most suitable managers for projects. A hierarchical structure, comprising the IPMA’s ICB 3.0 contextual, behavioural and technical competence elements, is constructed for the selection of project managers. It also describes the AHP implementation, illustrating the whole process with an example using all the 46 ICB competence elements as model criteria. This tool can be of high interest to decision-makers because it allows comparing the candidates for managing a project using a systematic and rigorous process with a rich set of proven criteria.

From F energy rating to Nearly ZEB: project of energy retrofit and architectural upgrade of a brick terraced house in Co. Dublin, Ireland

Questo progetto è stato sviluppato durante un periodo di ricerca presso il Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile del Trinity College e continuato presso l’Università di Bologna. Il progetto ha l’obiettivo di analizzare le soluzioni per l’ampliamento, la sostituzione degli impianti e l’ottimizzazione energetica di un tipico edificio residenziale Irlandese, una end of terrace in mattoni costruita negli anni ’20, collocata a Blackrock (Dublino). Diversi studi sostengono che lo stock abitativo irlandese è il peggiore del nord Europa per quanto riguarda la performance energetica. Questa tesi consta di una prima parte di studio del contesto e delle tecniche costruttive tradizionali irlandesi; è presente un capitolo di approfondimento sulle leggi riguardanti le costruzioni e gli incentivi forniti dal governo irlandese per interventi di retrofit energetico. Il terzo capitolo è un’analisi dell'esistente, con disegni del rilievo geometrico, immagini dell’edificio originale, termogrammi e dati riguardanti l’attuale performance energetica. Vengono poi mostrate diverse ipotesi di progetto e, una volta determinata la disposizione degli spazi interni, vengono considerate due soluzioni simili, ma costruite con pacchetti costruttivi diversi. Nel Progetto A l’involucro dell’addizione ha una struttura in muratura, nel Progetto B la struttura è in X-lam. Le performance energetiche delle due proposte vengono confrontate tramite una simulazione attuata grazie all'utilizzo del software dinamico IES-VE. Viene valutata l’applicazione di energie rinnovabili, quali l’energia solare e eolica e l’apporto che queste possono dare al bilancio energetico. Infine viene fatta un’analisi dei costi, valutando possibili suddivisioni dei lavori e ipotizzando un piano di ritorno dell’investimento, anche in combinazione con l’applicazione di energie rinnovabili. Alla fine del progetto si trova una valutazione quantitativa dei miglioramenti dell’edificio e un’analisi critica dei limiti del progetto.

Science-based entrepreneur project development process for pre-service science teachers: difficulties faced*

This study used a phenomenological research design to determine the difficulties faced in the science-based entrepreneur project development process for pre-service science teachers.. Qualitative data were obtained through interviews conducted with ten pre-service science teachers. The data were analysed using an inductive thematic analysis. The results indicated that pre-service science teachers have most difficulty ‘making decisions on one of the innovative ideas’ and ‘making predictions about unexpected situations’. They also have difficulties ‘calculating the cost as a result of design or work analysis’, ‘identifying if the idea already existed (similarity analysis)’ and ‘making decisions on the required materials, tools, services’. These results show the need for pre-service science teachers to communicate with other institutions and organisations.

A film director’s challenge : To manage – to manage? – The creative process in a film project

The aim of this text is to discuss how it is possible to manage the art creating process in a film project, where the circumstances are often turbulent. In normative project management literature one proceeds from the idea that a project is realised in a stable world from a clear goal. In a film project there is often a need to change your plans, to improvise both in front of the camera as well as behind the camera. In the theoretical cinematic literature the responsibility for the final film text is more and more being viewed as a product of not only the director, but of the whole team’s work. Consequently, the narrative of leadership/management in a film team can be viewed from a relational perspective where the director and those s/he interacts with, are responsible for the action, relations and social situations they construe jointly in the process of filmmaking. The organization of a film project is a temporary one. The members of a team are seldom the same from one production to another, as well as the creative process always being unique. According to process thinking, organizing can be seen as the ongoing creative activity where we structure and stabilize the chaotic, moving reality. As concerns a film project, the process of becoming of the filmic expression; careful plans, on the one hand, and improvisation and flexibility in action, on the other hand, are a precondition for its realisation. The director when setting a linguistic formulation to what is to be done, can be considered as a practical author.

Business Process Management and Process Mining within a Real Business Environment: An Empirical Analysis of Event Logs Data in a Consulting Project

Il presente elaborato esplora l’attitudine delle organizzazioni nei confronti dei processi di business che le sostengono: dalla semi-assenza di struttura, all’organizzazione funzionale, fino all’avvento del Business Process Reengineering e del Business Process Management, nato come superamento dei limiti e delle problematiche del modello precedente. All’interno del ciclo di vita del BPM, trova spazio la metodologia del process mining, che permette un livello di analisi dei processi a partire dagli event data log, ossia dai dati di registrazione degli eventi, che fanno riferimento a tutte quelle attività supportate da un sistema informativo aziendale. Il process mining può essere visto come naturale ponte che collega le discipline del management basate sui processi (ma non data-driven) e i nuovi sviluppi della business intelligence, capaci di gestire e manipolare l’enorme mole di dati a disposizione delle aziende (ma che non sono process-driven). Nella tesi, i requisiti e le tecnologie che abilitano l’utilizzo della disciplina sono descritti, cosi come le tre tecniche che questa abilita: process discovery, conformance checking e process enhancement. Il process mining è stato utilizzato come strumento principale in un progetto di consulenza da HSPI S.p.A. per conto di un importante cliente italiano, fornitore di piattaforme e di soluzioni IT. Il progetto a cui ho preso parte, descritto all’interno dell’elaborato, ha come scopo quello di sostenere l’organizzazione nel suo piano di improvement delle prestazioni interne e ha permesso di verificare l’applicabilità e i limiti delle tecniche di process mining. Infine, nell’appendice finale, è presente un paper da me realizzato, che raccoglie tutte le applicazioni della disciplina in un contesto di business reale, traendo dati e informazioni da working papers, casi aziendali e da canali diretti. Per la sua validità e completezza, questo documento è stata pubblicato nel sito dell'IEEE Task Force on Process Mining.

When the virtual influences reality. The conservation project of the toledo gate in ciudad real (Spain)

The Toledo Gate of Ciudad Real, Spain, constructed between the late 13th and early 14th centuries, is the last remaining portion of a once complete medieval city wall. It represents the long history of the city and constitutes its main heritage symbol, dividing the historic city centre from the later 19th and 20th century expansions. In October 2012, the Town Hall and the Montemadrid Foundation started the conservation works to preserve this important monument. The preliminary phase of this project included an in-depth series of scientific studies which were carried out by a multidisciplinary team focusing on archival research, historic investigations, archaeological excavations as well as material composition analysis and main treatment application tests. As a result of these studies a series of virtual 3D models were created to inform, discuss and study the monument. A first digital model permitted visualization of the gate in the 19th century and how the main entrance to the city was integrated as a fundamental part of the city walls. This virtual reconstruction also became an important part of the campaign to raise awareness among the citizens towards a monument that had remained in the shadows for the last century, isolated in a roundabout after the systematic demolition of the city walls in the late 19th century. Over the last three years and as a result of these archaeological and historic investigations and subsequent virtual models, surprisingly new and interesting data were brought to light thus permitting the establishment and corroboration of a new and updated hypothesis of the Toledo Gate that goes beyond the previous ideas. As a result of these studies a new architectural typology with construction techniques of has been suggested. This paper describes how the results of this continuous and interdisciplinary documentation process have benefitted from a computer graphic reconstruction of the gate. It highlights how virtual reconstruction can be a powerful tool for conservation decision making and awareness raising. Furthermore, the interesting results of the final reconstruction hypothesis convinced the technical team responsible for the conservation to alter some aspects of the final project physical interventions in order to focus on some of the features and conclusions discovered through the virtual model study.

The Process of Simulation Authoring/Creation by Chemistry Teachers: A Service Learning Experience

Two case studies are presented to describe the process of public school teachers authoring and creating chemistry simulations. They are part of the Virtual Didactic Laboratory for Chemistry, a project developed by the School of the Future of the University of Sao Paulo. the documental analysis of the material produced by two groups of teachers reflects different selection process for both themes and problem-situations when creating simulations. The study demonstrates the potential for chemistry learning with an approach that takes students' everyday lives into account and is based on collaborative work among teachers and researches. Also, from the teachers' perspectives, the possibilities of interaction that a simulation offers for classroom activities are considered.

Support Tool to the Validation Process of Functional Requirements

The activity of validating identified requirements for an information system helps to improve the quality of a requirements specification document and, consequently, the success of a project. Although various different support tools to requirements engineering exist in the market, there is still a lack of automated support for validation activity. In this context, the purpose of this paper is to make up for that deficiency, with the use of an automated tool, to provide the resources for the execution of an adequate validation activity. The contribution of this study is to enable an agile and effective follow-up of the scope established for the requirements, so as to lead the development to a solution which would satisfy the real necessities of the users, as well as to supply project managers with relevant information about the maturity of the analysts involved in requirements specification.

Tiering strategic environmental assessment and project environmental impact assessment in highway planning in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Constructing highways in dense urban areas is always a challenge. In Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region, heavy truck traffic contributes to clog streets and expressways alike. As part of the traffic neither originates nor head to the region, a peripheral highway has been proposed to reduce traffic problems. This project called Rodoanel, is an expressway approximately 175 km long. The fact that the projected south and north sections would cross catchments that supply most of the metropolis water demand was strongly disputed and made the environmental permitting process particularly difficult. The agency in charge commissioned a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of a revamped project, and called it the Rodoanel Programme. However, the SEA report failed to satisfactorily take account of significant strategic issues. Among these, the highway potential effect of inducing urban sprawl over water protection zones is the most critical issue, as it emerged later as a hurdle to project licensing. Conclusion is that, particularly where no agreed-upon framework for SEA exists, when vertical tiering with downstream project EIA is sought, then a careful scoping of strategic issues is more than necessary. If an agreement on `what is strategic` is not reached and not recognized by influential stakeholders, then the unsettled conflicts will be transferred to project EIA. In such a context, SEA will have added another loop to the usually long road to project approval. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

And then came Complex Project Management

The subject of management is renowned for its addiction to fads and fashions. Project Management is no exception. The issue of interest for this paper is the establishment of the 'College of Complex Project Managers' and their 'competency standard for complex project managers.' Both have generated significant interest in the Project Management community, and like any other human endeavour they should be subject to critical evaluation. The results of this evaluation show significant flaws in the definition of complex in this case, the process by which the College and its standard have emerged, and the content of the standard. However, there is a significant case for a portfolio of research that extends the existing bodies of knowledge into large-scale complicated (or major) projects that would be owned by the relevant practitioner communities, rather than focused on one organization. Research questions are proposed that would commence this stream of activity towards an intelligent synthesis of what is required to manage in both complicated and truly complex environments.

A Step-by-Step Approach to Transit Oriented Development Project Delivery

A major challenge in successfully implementing transit-oriented development (TOD) is having a robust process that ensures effective appraisal, initiation and delivery of multi-stakeholder TOD projects. A step-by step project development process can assist in the methodic design, evaluation, and initiation of TOD projects. Successful TOD requires attention to transit, mixed-use development and public space. Brisbane, Australia provides a case-study where recent planning policies and infrastructure documents have laid a foundation for TOD, but where barriers lie in precinct level planning and project implementation. In this context and perhaps in others, the research effort needs to shift toward identification of appropriate project processes and strategies. This paper presents the outcomes of research conducted to date. Drawing on the mainstream approach to project development and financial evaluation for property projects, key steps for potential use in successful delivery of TOD projects have been identified, including: establish the framework; location selection; precinct context review; preliminary precinct design; the initial financial viability study; the decision stage; establishment of project structure; land acquisition; development application; and project delivery. The appropriateness of this mainstream development and appraisal process will be tested through stakeholder research, and the proposed process will then be refined for adoption in TOD projects. It is suggested that the criteria for successful TOD should be broadened beyond financial concerns in order to deliver public sector support for project initiation.

Virtual plants - integrating architectural and physiological models

Recent advances in computer technology have made it possible to create virtual plants by simulating the details of structural development of individual plants. Software has been developed that processes plant models expressed in a special purpose mini-language based on the Lindenmayer system formalism. These models can be extended from their architectural basis to capture plant physiology by integrating them with crop models, which estimate biomass production as a consequence of environmental inputs. Through this process, virtual plants will gain the ability to react to broad environmental conditions, while crop models will gain a visualisation component. This integration requires the resolution of the fundamentally different time scales underlying the approaches. Architectural models are usually based on physiological time; each time step encompasses the same amount of development in the plant, without regard to the passage of real time. In contrast, physiological models are based in real time; the amount of development in a time step is dependent on environmental conditions during the period. This paper provides a background on the plant modelling language, then describes how widely-used concepts of thermal time can be implemented to resolve these time scale differences. The process is illustrated using a case study. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.