From deep North to global governance exemplar : Fitzgerald's impact on the International Anti-corruption Movement

In pre-Fitzgerald Queensland, the existence of corruption was widely known but its extent and modes of operation were not fully evident. The Fitzgerald Report identified the need for reform of the structure, procedures and efficiency in public administration in Queensland. What was most striking in the Queensland reform process was that a new model for combating corruption had been developed. Rather than rely upon a single law and a single institution, existing institutions were strengthened and new institutions were instituted to create a set of mutually supporting and mutually checking institutions, agencies and laws that jointly sought to improve governmental standards and combat corruption. Some of the reforms were either unique to Queensland or very rare. One of the strengths of this approach was that it avoided creating a single overarching institution to fight corruption. There are many powerful opponents of reform. Influential institutions and individuals resist any interference with their privileges. In order to cause a mass exodus from an entrenched corruption system, a seminal event or defining process is needed to alter expectations and incentives that are sufficient to encourage significant numbers of individuals to desert the corruption system and assist the integrity system in exposing and destroying it. The Fitzgerald Inquiry was such an event. The article also briefly addresses methods for destroying national corruption system where they emerge and exist.

Induction of anti-chlamydial mucosal immunity by transcutaneous immunization is enhanced by topical application of GM-CSF

Transcutaneous immunization (TCI) involves the direct application of antigen plus adjuvant to skin, taking advantage of the large numbers of Langerhans cells and other resident skin dendritic cells, that process antigen then migrate to draining lymph nodes where immune responses are initiated. We have used this form of immunization to protect mice against genital tract and respiratory tract chlamydial infection. Protection was associated with local antibody responses in the vagina, uterus and lung as well as strong Th1 responses in the lymph nodes draining the reproductive tract and lungs respectively. In this study we show that topical application of GM-CSF to skin enhances the numbers and activation status of epidermal dendritic cells. Topical application of GM-CSF also increased the immune responses elicited by TCI. GM-CSF supplementation greatly increased cytokine (IFNgamma and IL-4) gene expression in lymph node and splenic cells compared to cells from animals immunized without GM-CSF. IgG responses in serum, uterine lavage and bronchoalveolar lavage and IgA responses in vaginal lavage were also increased by topical application of GM-CSF. The studies show that TCI induces protection against genital and respiratory tract chlamydial infections and that topical application of cytokines such as GM-CSF can enhance TCI-induced antibody and cell-mediated immunity.

Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts : how effective are statistical and economic loss functions?

Multivariate volatility forecasts are an important input in many financial applications, in particular portfolio optimisation problems. Given the number of models available and the range of loss functions to discriminate between them, it is obvious that selecting the optimal forecasting model is challenging. The aim of this thesis is to thoroughly investigate how effective many commonly used statistical (MSE and QLIKE) and economic (portfolio variance and portfolio utility) loss functions are at discriminating between competing multivariate volatility forecasts. An analytical investigation of the loss functions is performed to determine whether they identify the correct forecast as the best forecast. This is followed by an extensive simulation study examines the ability of the loss functions to consistently rank forecasts, and their statistical power within tests of predictive ability. For the tests of predictive ability, the model confidence set (MCS) approach of Hansen, Lunde and Nason (2003, 2011) is employed. As well, an empirical study investigates whether simulation findings hold in a realistic setting. In light of these earlier studies, a major empirical study seeks to identify the set of superior multivariate volatility forecasting models from 43 models that use either daily squared returns or realised volatility to generate forecasts. This study also assesses how the choice of volatility proxy affects the ability of the statistical loss functions to discriminate between forecasts. Analysis of the loss functions shows that QLIKE, MSE and portfolio variance can discriminate between multivariate volatility forecasts, while portfolio utility cannot. An examination of the effective loss functions shows that they all can identify the correct forecast at a point in time, however, their ability to discriminate between competing forecasts does vary. That is, QLIKE is identified as the most effective loss function, followed by portfolio variance which is then followed by MSE. The major empirical analysis reports that the optimal set of multivariate volatility forecasting models includes forecasts generated from daily squared returns and realised volatility. Furthermore, it finds that the volatility proxy affects the statistical loss functions’ ability to discriminate between forecasts in tests of predictive ability. These findings deepen our understanding of how to choose between competing multivariate volatility forecasts.