Near real-time prediction of Zenith Tropospheric Delays for position estimation over long-baseline CORS network

This paper presents the preliminary results in establishing a strategy for predicting Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) and relative ZTD (rZTD) between Continuous Operating Reference Stations (CORS) in near real-time. It is anticipated that the predicted ZTD or rZTD can assist the network-based Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) performance over long inter-station distances, ultimately, enabling a cost effective method of delivering precise positioning services to sparsely populated regional areas, such as Queensland. This research firstly investigates two ZTD solutions: 1) the post-processed IGS ZTD solution and 2) the near Real-Time ZTD solution. The near Real-Time solution is obtained through the GNSS processing software package (Bernese) that has been deployed for this project. The predictability of the near Real-Time Bernese solution is analyzed and compared to the post-processed IGS solution where it acts as the benchmark solution. The predictability analyses were conducted with various prediction time of 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes to determine the error with respect to timeliness. The predictability of ZTD and relative ZTD is determined (or characterized) by using the previously estimated ZTD as the predicted ZTD of current epoch. This research has shown that both the ZTD and relative ZTD predicted errors are random in nature; the STD grows from a few millimeters to sub-centimeters while the predicted delay interval ranges from 15 to 60 minutes. Additionally, the RZTD predictability shows very little dependency on the length of tested baselines of up to 1000 kilometers. Finally, the comparison of near Real-Time Bernese solution with IGS solution has shown a slight degradation in the prediction accuracy. The less accurate NRT solution has an STD error of 1cm within the delay of 50 minutes. However, some larger errors of up to 10cm are observed.

A practical approach for reliability prediction of pipeline systems

Pipelines play an important role in the modern society. Failures of pipelines can have great impacts on economy, environment and community. Preventive maintenance (PM) is often conducted to improve the reliability of pipelines. Modern asset management practice requires accurate predictability of the reliability of pipelines with multiple PM actions, especially when these PM actions involve imperfect repairs. To address this issue, a split system approach (SSA) based model is developed in this paper through an industrial case study. This new model enables maintenance personnel to predict the reliability of pipelines with different PM strategies and hence effectively assists them in making optimal PM decisions.

Reading the play : adaptation by prediction of agent motion

An adaptive agent improves its performance by learning from experience. This paper describes an approach to adaptation based on modelling dynamic elements of the environment in order to make predictions of likely future state. This approach is akin to an elite sports player being able to “read the play”, allowing for decisions to be made based on predictions of likely future outcomes. Modelling of the agent‟s likely future state is performed using Markov Chains and a technique called “Motion and Occupancy Grids”. The experiments in this paper compare the performance of the planning system with and without the use of this predictive model. The results of the study demonstrate a surprising decrease in performance when using the predictions of agent occupancy. The results are derived from statistical analysis of the agent‟s performance in a high fidelity simulation of a world leading real robot soccer team.

Wide-angle visual feature matching for outdoor localization

Wide-angle images exhibit significant distortion for which existing scale-space detectors such as the scale-invariant feature transform (SIFT) are inappropriate. The required scale-space images for feature detection are correctly obtained through the convolution of the image, mapped to the sphere, with the spherical Gaussian. A new visual key-point detector, based on this principle, is developed and several computational approaches to the convolution are investigated in both the spatial and frequency domain. In particular, a close approximation is developed that has comparable computation time to conventional SIFT but with improved matching performance. Results are presented for monocular wide-angle outdoor image sequences obtained using fisheye and equiangular catadioptric cameras. We evaluate the overall matching performance (recall versus 1-precision) of these methods compared to conventional SIFT. We also demonstrate the use of the technique for variable frame-rate visual odometry and its application to place recognition.

Application of data mining techniques in the prediction of coronary artery disease : use of anaesthesia time-series and patient risk factor data

The high morbidity and mortality associated with atherosclerotic coronary vascular disease (CVD) and its complications are being lessened by the increased knowledge of risk factors, effective preventative measures and proven therapeutic interventions. However, significant CVD morbidity remains and sudden cardiac death continues to be a presenting feature for some subsequently diagnosed with CVD. Coronary vascular disease is also the leading cause of anaesthesia related complications. Stress electrocardiography/exercise testing is predictive of 10 year risk of CVD events and the cardiovascular variables used to score this test are monitored peri-operatively. Similar physiological time-series datasets are being subjected to data mining methods for the prediction of medical diagnoses and outcomes. This study aims to find predictors of CVD using anaesthesia time-series data and patient risk factor data. Several pre-processing and predictive data mining methods are applied to this data. Physiological time-series data related to anaesthetic procedures are subjected to pre-processing methods for removal of outliers, calculation of moving averages as well as data summarisation and data abstraction methods. Feature selection methods of both wrapper and filter types are applied to derived physiological time-series variable sets alone and to the same variables combined with risk factor variables. The ability of these methods to identify subsets of highly correlated but non-redundant variables is assessed. The major dataset is derived from the entire anaesthesia population and subsets of this population are considered to be at increased anaesthesia risk based on their need for more intensive monitoring (invasive haemodynamic monitoring and additional ECG leads). Because of the unbalanced class distribution in the data, majority class under-sampling and Kappa statistic together with misclassification rate and area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used for evaluation of models generated using different prediction algorithms. The performance based on models derived from feature reduced datasets reveal the filter method, Cfs subset evaluation, to be most consistently effective although Consistency derived subsets tended to slightly increased accuracy but markedly increased complexity. The use of misclassification rate (MR) for model performance evaluation is influenced by class distribution. This could be eliminated by consideration of the AUC or Kappa statistic as well by evaluation of subsets with under-sampled majority class. The noise and outlier removal pre-processing methods produced models with MR ranging from 10.69 to 12.62 with the lowest value being for data from which both outliers and noise were removed (MR 10.69). For the raw time-series dataset, MR is 12.34. Feature selection results in reduction in MR to 9.8 to 10.16 with time segmented summary data (dataset F) MR being 9.8 and raw time-series summary data (dataset A) being 9.92. However, for all time-series only based datasets, the complexity is high. For most pre-processing methods, Cfs could identify a subset of correlated and non-redundant variables from the time-series alone datasets but models derived from these subsets are of one leaf only. MR values are consistent with class distribution in the subset folds evaluated in the n-cross validation method. For models based on Cfs selected time-series derived and risk factor (RF) variables, the MR ranges from 8.83 to 10.36 with dataset RF_A (raw time-series data and RF) being 8.85 and dataset RF_F (time segmented time-series variables and RF) being 9.09. The models based on counts of outliers and counts of data points outside normal range (Dataset RF_E) and derived variables based on time series transformed using Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) with associated time-series pattern cluster membership (Dataset RF_ G) perform the least well with MR of 10.25 and 10.36 respectively. For coronary vascular disease prediction, nearest neighbour (NNge) and the support vector machine based method, SMO, have the highest MR of 10.1 and 10.28 while logistic regression (LR) and the decision tree (DT) method, J48, have MR of 8.85 and 9.0 respectively. DT rules are most comprehensible and clinically relevant. The predictive accuracy increase achieved by addition of risk factor variables to time-series variable based models is significant. The addition of time-series derived variables to models based on risk factor variables alone is associated with a trend to improved performance. Data mining of feature reduced, anaesthesia time-series variables together with risk factor variables can produce compact and moderately accurate models able to predict coronary vascular disease. Decision tree analysis of time-series data combined with risk factor variables yields rules which are more accurate than models based on time-series data alone. The limited additional value provided by electrocardiographic variables when compared to use of risk factors alone is similar to recent suggestions that exercise electrocardiography (exECG) under standardised conditions has limited additional diagnostic value over risk factor analysis and symptom pattern. The effect of the pre-processing used in this study had limited effect when time-series variables and risk factor variables are used as model input. In the absence of risk factor input, the use of time-series variables after outlier removal and time series variables based on physiological variable values’ being outside the accepted normal range is associated with some improvement in model performance.

An integrated rail track degradation model

There has been a worldwide trend to increase axle loads and train speeds. This means that railway track degradation will be accelerated, and track maintenance costs will be increased significantly. There is a need to investigate the consequences of increasing traffic load. The aim of the research is to develop a model for the analysis of physical degradation of railway tracks in response to changes in traffic parameters, especially increased axle loads and train speeds. This research has developed an integrated track degradation model (ITDM) by integrating several models into a comprehensive framework. Mechanistic relationships for track degradation hav~ ?een used wherever possible in each of the models contained in ITDM. This overcc:mes the deficiency of the traditional statistical track models which rely heavily on historical degradation data, which is generally not available in many railway systems. In addition statistical models lack the flexibility of incorporating future changes in traffic patterns or maintenance practices. The research starts with reviewing railway track related studies both in Australia and overseas to develop a comprehensive understanding of track performance under various traffic conditions. Existing railway related models are then examined for their suitability for track degradation analysis for Australian situations. The ITDM model is subsequently developed by modifying suitable existing models, and developing new models where necessary. The ITDM model contains four interrelated submodels for rails, sleepers, ballast and subgrade, and track modulus. The rail submodel is for rail wear analysis and is developed from a theoretical concept. The sleeper submodel is for timber sleepers damage prediction. The submodel is developed by modifying and extending an existing model developed elsewhere. The submodel has also incorporated an analysis for the likelihood of concrete sleeper cracking. The ballast and subgrade submodel is evolved from a concept developed in the USA. Substantial modifications and improvements have been made. The track modulus submodel is developed from a conceptual method. Corrections for more global track conditions have been made. The integration of these submodels into one comprehensive package has enabled the interaction between individual track components to be taken into account. This is done by calculating wheel load distribution with time and updating track conditions periodically in the process of track degradation simulation. A Windows-based computer program ~ssociated with ITDM has also been developed. The program enables the user to carry out analysis of degradation of individual track components and to investigate the inter relationships between these track components and their deterioration. The successful implementation of this research has provided essential information for prediction of increased maintenance as a consequence of railway trackdegradation. The model, having been presented at various conferences and seminars, has attracted wide interest. It is anticipated that the model will be put into practical use among Australian railways, enabling track maintenance planning to be optimized and potentially saving Australian railway systems millions of dollars in operating costs.

Swept frequency biompedance analysis for the determination of body water compartments

Bioelectrical impedance analysis, (BIA), is a method of body composition analysis first investigated in 1962 which has recently received much attention by a number of research groups. The reasons for this recent interest are its advantages, (viz: inexpensive, non-invasive and portable) and also the increasing interest in the diagnostic value of body composition analysis. The concept utilised by BIA to predict body water volumes is the proportional relationship for a simple cylindrical conductor, (volume oc length2/resistance), which allows the volume to be predicted from the measured resistance and length. Most of the research to date has measured the body's resistance to the passage of a 50· kHz AC current to predict total body water, (TBW). Several research groups have investigated the application of AC currents at lower frequencies, (eg 5 kHz), to predict extracellular water, (ECW). However all research to date using BIA to predict body water volumes has used the impedance measured at a discrete frequency or frequencies. This thesis investigates the variation of impedance and phase of biological systems over a range of frequencies and describes the development of a swept frequency bioimpedance meter which measures impedance and phase at 496 frequencies ranging from 4 kHz to 1 MHz. The impedance of any biological system varies with the frequency of the applied current. The graph of reactance vs resistance yields a circular arc with the resistance decreasing with increasing frequency and reactance increasing from zero to a maximum then decreasing to zero. Computer programs were written to analyse the measured impedance spectrum and determine the impedance, Zc, at the characteristic frequency, (the frequency at which the reactance is a maximum). The fitted locus of the measured data was extrapolated to determine the resistance, Ro, at zero frequency; a value that cannot be measured directly using surface electrodes. The explanation of the theoretical basis for selecting these impedance values (Zc and Ro), to predict TBW and ECW is presented. Studies were conducted on a group of normal healthy animals, (n=42), in which TBW and ECW were determined by the gold standard of isotope dilution. The prediction quotients L2/Zc and L2/Ro, (L=length), yielded standard errors of 4.2% and 3.2% respectively, and were found to be significantly better than previously reported, empirically determined prediction quotients derived from measurements at a single frequency. The prediction equations established in this group of normal healthy animals were applied to a group of animals with abnormally low fluid levels, (n=20), and also to a group with an abnormal balance of extra-cellular to intracellular fluids, (n=20). In both cases the equations using L2/Zc and L2/Ro accurately and precisely predicted TBW and ECW. This demonstrated that the technique developed using multiple frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis, (MFBIA), can accurately predict both TBW and ECW in both normal and abnormal animals, (with standard errors of the estimate of 6% and 3% for TBW and ECW respectively). Isotope dilution techniques were used to determine TBW and ECW in a group of 60 healthy human subjects, (male. and female, aged between 18 and 45). Whole body impedance measurements were recorded on each subject using the MFBIA technique and the correlations between body water volumes, (TBW and ECW), and heighe/impedance, (for all measured frequencies), were compared. The prediction quotients H2/Zc and H2/Ro, (H=height), again yielded the highest correlation with TBW and ECW respectively with corresponding standard errors of 5.2% and 10%. The values of the correlation coefficients obtained in this study were very similar to those recently reported by others. It was also observed that in healthy human subjects the impedance measured at virtually any frequency yielded correlations not significantly different from those obtained from the MFBIA quotients. This phenomenon has been reported by other research groups and emphasises the need to validate the technique by investigating its application in one or more groups with abnormalities in fluid levels. The clinical application of MFBIA was trialled and its capability of detecting lymphoedema, (an excess of extracellular fluid), was investigated. The MFBIA technique was demonstrated to be significantly more sensitive, (P<.05), in detecting lymphoedema than the current technique of circumferential measurements. MFBIA was also shown to provide valuable information describing the changes in the quantity of muscle mass of the patient during the course of the treatment. The determination of body composition, (viz TBW and ECW), by MFBIA has been shown to be a significant improvement on previous bioelectrical impedance techniques. The merit of the MFBIA technique is evidenced in its accurate, precise and valid application in animal groups with a wide variation in body fluid volumes and balances. The multiple frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis technique developed in this study provides accurate and precise estimates of body composition, (viz TBW and ECW), regardless of the individual's state of health.

Modelling of some biological materials using continuum mechanics

Continuum mechanics provides a mathematical framework for modelling the physical stresses experienced by a material. Recent studies show that physical stresses play an important role in a wide variety of biological processes, including dermal wound healing, soft tissue growth and morphogenesis. Thus, continuum mechanics is a useful mathematical tool for modelling a range of biological phenomena. Unfortunately, classical continuum mechanics is of limited use in biomechanical problems. As cells refashion the �bres that make up a soft tissue, they sometimes alter the tissue's fundamental mechanical structure. Advanced mathematical techniques are needed in order to accurately describe this sort of biological `plasticity'. A number of such techniques have been proposed by previous researchers. However, models that incorporate biological plasticity tend to be very complicated. Furthermore, these models are often di�cult to apply and/or interpret, making them of limited practical use. One alternative approach is to ignore biological plasticity and use classical continuum mechanics. For example, most mechanochemical models of dermal wound healing assume that the skin behaves as a linear viscoelastic solid. Our analysis indicates that this assumption leads to physically unrealistic results. In this thesis we present a novel and practical approach to modelling biological plasticity. Our principal aim is to combine the simplicity of classical linear models with the sophistication of plasticity theory. To achieve this, we perform a careful mathematical analysis of the concept of a `zero stress state'. This leads us to a formal de�nition of strain that is appropriate for materials that undergo internal remodelling. Next, we consider the evolution of the zero stress state over time. We develop a novel theory of `morphoelasticity' that can be used to describe how the zero stress state changes in response to growth and remodelling. Importantly, our work yields an intuitive and internally consistent way of modelling anisotropic growth. Furthermore, we are able to use our theory of morphoelasticity to develop evolution equations for elastic strain. We also present some applications of our theory. For example, we show that morphoelasticity can be used to obtain a constitutive law for a Maxwell viscoelastic uid that is valid at large deformation gradients. Similarly, we analyse a morphoelastic model of the stress-dependent growth of a tumour spheroid. This work leads to the prediction that a tumour spheroid will always be in a state of radial compression and circumferential tension. Finally, we conclude by presenting a novel mechanochemical model of dermal wound healing that takes into account the plasticity of the healing skin.