Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

The role of intellectual resources, product innovation capability, reputational resources and marketing capability combinations in SME growth

This article examines the extent to which combinations of intellectual resources and product innovation capability, and reputational resources and marketing capability, influence the ability of small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) to meet or exceed performance goals. Empirical results drawn from 171 SMEs suggest that when the combination of intellectual resources and product innovation capability in addition to the combination of reputational resources and marketing capability are high, SME growth is enhanced. However, a high level of intellectual resources combined with a low level of product innovation capability as well as a combination of a high level of reputational resources with a low level of marketing capability (and vice versa) are not significantly related to growth. These results imply that a high level of resources cannot compensate for a low level of capabilities (and vice versa).

Examining the role of within functional area resource–capability complementarity in achieving customer and product-based performance outcomes

Adopting both the resource-based view and dynamic capability theory this study advances the contention that firms must possess both resources and capabilities at a superior level to achieve superior customer and product performance. To examine this contention this study investigates the individual effect of the complementarity between marketing resources and capability and complementarity between innovation resources and capability on customer and product performance respectively. The results of a survey of 171 B2B manufacturing firms show a significant main effect for complementarity between marketing resources–capability and complementarity between innovation resources–capability on customer and product performance. The findings also show that complementarity marketing resources–capability has a stronger positive relationship with customer performance than with product performance, while complementarity between innovation resources–capability has a stronger positive relationship with product performance than with customer performance.

A review selection method using product feature taxonomy

As of today, online reviews have become more and more important in decision making process. In recent years, the problem of identifying useful reviews for users has attracted significant attentions. For instance, in order to select reviews that focus on a particular feature, researchers proposed a method which extracts all associated words of this feature as the relevant information to evaluate and find appropriate reviews. However, the extraction of associated words is not that accurate due to the noise in free review text, and this affects the overall performance negatively. In this paper, we propose a method to select reviews according to a given feature by using a review model generated based upon a domain ontology called product feature taxonomy. The proposed review model provides relevant information about the hierarchical relationships of the features in the review which captures the review characteristics accurately. Our experiment results based on real world review dataset show that our approach is able to improve the review selection performance according to the given criteria effectively.

Malaria rapid diagnostic test performance : results of WHO product testing of malaria RDTs : round 5 (2013)

WHO estimates that half the world’s population is at risk of malaria. In 2012, there were an estimated 207 million cases (with an uncertainty range of 135 million to 287 million) and an estimated 627 000 deaths (with an uncertainty range of 473 000 to 789 000). Approximately 90% of all malaria deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa, and 77% occur in children under 5 years. Malaria remains endemic in 104 countries, and, while parasite-based diagnosis is increasing, most suspected cases of malaria are still not properly confirmed, resulting in over-use of antimalarial drugs and poor disease monitoring (1)...

A rating aggregation method for generating product reputations

Many websites offer the opportunity for customers to rate items and then use customers' ratings to generate items reputation, which can be used later by other users for decision making purposes. The aggregated value of the ratings per item represents the reputation of this item. The accuracy of the reputation scores is important as it is used to rank items. Most of the aggregation methods didn't consider the frequency of distinct ratings and they didn't test how accurate their reputation scores over different datasets with different sparsity. In this work we propose a new aggregation method which can be described as a weighted average, where weights are generated using the normal distribution. The evaluation result shows that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods over different sparsity datasets.

Privacy concerns and purchase of travel product online

The travel and tourism industry has come to rely heavily on information and communication technologies to facilitate relations with consumers. Compiling consumer data profiles has become easier and it is widely thought that consumers place great importance on how that data is handled by firms. Lack of trust may cause consumers to have privacy concerns and may, in turn, have an adverse impact on consumers’ willingness to purchase online. Three specific aspects of privacy that have received attention from researchers are unauthorized use of secondary data, invasion of privacy, and errors. A survey study was undertaken to examine the effects of these factors on both prior purchase of travel products via the Internet and future purchase probability. Surprisingly, no significant relationships were found to indicate that such privacy concerns affect online purchase behavior within the travel industry. Implications for managers are discussed.

A conceptual analysis of strategic capability development within product innovation projects

Strategic capability development refers to the renewal of the organisational capabilities which are sources of competitive advantage. The aim of this paper is to examine how strategic capability and competitive advantage build up over time. Recent literature points to the integration of dynamic capability and ambidexterity perspectives in explaining organisational capability development. Literature analysis reveals the role of knowledge integration and product innovation in integrating dynamic capability and ambidexterity. However, little attention has yet been paid to knowledge integration within innovation projects as a context for capability development. Accordingly, this paper aims to develop a conceptual framework for strategic capability development focusing on the role of knowledge integration within product innovation projects. This framework contributes to identifying and emphasising the role of micro processes in capability renewal which in turn enhances our understanding of strategic capability development.

Developing a transdisciplinary approach to improve urban traffic congestion based on Product Ecosystem theory

Product Ecosystem theory is an emerging theory that shows that disruptive “game changing” innovation is only possible when the entire ecosystem is considered. When environmental variables change faster than products or services can adapt, disruptive innovation is required to keep pace. This has many parallels with natural ecosystems where species that cannot keep up with changes to the environment will struggle or become extinct. In this case the environment is the city, the environmental pressures are pollution and congestion, the product is the car and the product ecosystem is comprised of roads, bridges, traffic lights, legislation, refuelling facilities etc. Each one of these components is the responsibility of a different organisation and so any change that affects the whole ecosystem requires a transdisciplinary approach. As a simple example, cars that communicate wirelessly with traffic lights are only of value if wireless-enabled traffic lights exist and vice versa. Cars that drive themselves are technically possible but legislation in most places doesn’t allow their use. According to innovation theory, incremental innovation tends to chase ever diminishing returns and becomes increasingly unable to tackle the “big issues.” Eventually “game changing” disruptive innovation comes along and solves the “big issues” and/or provides new opportunities. Seen through this lens, the environmental pressures of urban traffic congestion and pollution are the “big issues.” It can be argued that the design of cars and the other components of the product ecosystem follow an incremental innovation approach. That is why the “big issues” remain unresolved. This paper explores the problems of pollution and congestion in urban environments from a Product Ecosystem perspective. From this a strategy will be proposed for a transdisciplinary approach to develop and implement solutions.

Identifying product families using data mining techniques in manufacturing paradigm

Identifying product families has been considered as an effective way to accommodate the increasing product varieties across the diverse market niches. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to identifying product families by using a similarity measure for a common product design data BOM (Bill of Materials) based on data mining techniques such as frequent mining and clus-tering. For calculating the similarity between BOMs, a novel Extended Augmented Adjacency Matrix (EAAM) representation is introduced that consists of information not only of the content and topology but also of the fre-quent structural dependency among the various parts of a product design. These EAAM representations of BOMs are compared to calculate the similarity between products and used as a clustering input to group the product fami-lies. When applied on a real-life manufacturing data, the proposed framework outperforms a current baseline that uses orthogonal Procrustes for grouping product families.

Audit pricing and product differentiation in small private firms : evidence from Thailand

Purpose – There is limited evidence on how differences in economic environments affect the demand for and supply of auditing. Research on audit pricing has mainly focused on large client markets in developed economies; in contrast, the purpose of this paper is to focus on the small client segment in the emerging economy of Thailand which offers a choice between auditors of two different qualities. Design/methodology/approach – This paper is based on a random stratified sample of small clients in Thailand qualifying for audit exemption. The final sample consists of 1,950 firm-year observations for 2002-2006. Findings – The authors find evidence of product differentiation in the small client market, suggesting that small firms view certified public accountants as superior and pay a premium for their services. The authors also find that audit fees have a positive significant association with leverage, metropolitan location and client size. Audit risk and audit opinion are not, however, significantly associated with audit fees. Furthermore, the authors find no evidence that clients whose financial year ends in the auditors’ busy period pay significantly higher audit fees, and auditors engage in low-balling on initial engagements to attract audit clients. Research limitations/implications – The research shows the importance of exploring actual decisions regarding audit practice and audit pricing in different institutional and organizational settings. Originality/value – The paper extends the literature from developed economies and large/listed market setting to the emerging economy and small client market setting. As far as the authors are aware, this is the first paper to examine audit pricing in the small client market in an emerging economy.

Book review - Richard Goldberg, Medicinal Product Liability and Regulation (Hart Publishing, Oxford, 2013) 214pp

In December 2013, settlement was reached between approximately 100 Australian and New Zealand Thalidomide victims and the company which had acted as the Australian distributor of the infamous drug, thus putting to rest the possibility of litigation. Around the same time, Thalidomide victims in the United Kingdom (UK) launched a similar bid for compensation against the manufacturer and distributor. It is clear that despite a lengthy amount of time having passed ever since the thalidomide disaster commenced in 1962, the controversy over compensation continues. Indeed, the author of Medicinal Product Liability and Regulation (published before the announcement of the British legal claim), Professor Goldberg, notes that claims for resulting birth defects continue to emerge right into the present day. His prescient insight into the contemporary relevance of compensation for pharmaceutical injuries thus makes Medicinal Product Liability and Regulation a very relevant addition to the small body of scholarship that is available on this rather specific and complex issue.

Dynamics of industry architecture and firm’s capability development : role of knowledge integration within product innovation

Aligned with the decline of Marshalian view of industry as constituting homogeneous set of firms, the new perspective is emerging by concentrating more on dynamics of sectors as the building block of industrial changes. Based on new assumptions, much of the action in terms of strategy, technology, and knowledge development does not happen either among firms within a stable industry, or through the growth or decline of certain sectors compared to others. Instead, the action happens in terms of the definition, redefinition, drawing, and redrawing of the very nature of these sectors. Technology does not progress and develop within a sector; rather it shapes (and is shaped by) the encompassing architecture of multiple sectors.