Project time risk analysis through simulation

An inherent weakness in the management of large scale projects is the failure to achieve the scheduled completion date. When projects are planned with the objective of time achievement, the initial planning plays a vital role in the successful achievement of project deadlines. Cost and quality are additional priorities when such projects are being executed. This article proposes a methodology for achieving time duration of a project through risk analysis with the application of a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodology is demonstrated using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline construction project.

Time series analysis in the assessment of ICT impact at the aggregate level – lessons and implications for the new economy

The major role of information and communication technology (ICT) in the new economy is well documented: countries worldwide are pouring resources into their ICT infrastructure despite the widely acknowledged “productivity paradox”. Evaluating the contribution of ICT investments has become an elusive but important goal of IS researchers and economists. But this area of research is fraught with complexity and we have used Solow's Residual together with time-series analysis tools to overcome some methodological inadequacies of previous studies. Using this approach, we conduct a study of 20 countries to determine if there was empirical evidence to support claims that ICT investments are worthwhile. The results show that ICT contributes to economic growth in many developed countries and newly industrialized economies (NIEs), but not in developing countries. We finally suggest ICT-complementary factors, in an attempt to rectify possible flaws in ICT policies as a contribution towards improvement in global productivity.

Environmental scanning electron microscopy offers real-time morphological analysis of liposomes and niosomes

Liposomes have been imaged using a plethora of techniques. However, few of these methods offer the ability to study these systems in their natural hydrated state without the requirement of drying, staining, and fixation of the vesicles. However, the ability to image a liposome in its hydrated state is the ideal scenario for visualization of these dynamic lipid structures and environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM), with its ability to image wet systems without prior sample preparation, offers potential advantages to the above methods. In our studies, we have used ESEM to not only investigate the morphology of liposomes and niosomes but also to dynamically follow the changes in structure of lipid films and liposome suspensions as water condenses on to or evaporates from the sample. In particular, changes in liposome morphology were studied using ESEM in real time to investigate the resistance of liposomes to coalescence during dehydration thereby providing an alternative assay of liposome formulation and stability. Based on this protocol, we have also studied niosome-based systems and cationic liposome/DNA complexes. Copyright © Informa Healthcare.

Time scale analysis for fluidizedbedmeltgranulation-II: binder spreading rate

The spreading time of liquid binder droplet on the surface a primary particle is analyzed for Fluidized Bed Melt Granulation (FBMG). As discussed in the first paper of this series (Chua et al., in press) the droplet spreading rate has been identified as one of the important parameters affecting the probability of particles aggregation in FBMG. In this paper, the binder droplet spreading time has been estimated using Computational Fluid Dynamic modeling (CFD) based on Volume of Fluid approach (VOF). A simplified analytical solution has been developed and tested to explore its validity for predicting the spreading time. For the purpose of models validation, the droplet spreading evolution was recorded using a high speed video camera. Based on the validated model, a generalized correlative equation for binder spreading time is proposed. For the operating conditions considered here, the spreading time for Polyethylene Glycol (PEG1500) binder was found to fall within the range of 10-2 to 10-5 s. The study also included a number of other common binders used in FBMG. The results obtained here will be further used in paper III, where the binder solidification rate is discussed.

Time scale analysis for fluidizedbedmeltgranulation III: binder solidification rate

In series I and II of this study ([Chua et al., 2010a] and [Chua et al., 2010b]), we discussed the time scale of granule–granule collision, droplet–granule collision and droplet spreading in Fluidized Bed Melt Granulation (FBMG). In this third one, we consider the rate at which binder solidifies. Simple analytical solution, based on classical formulation for conduction across a semi-infinite slab, was used to obtain a generalized equation for binder solidification time. A multi-physics simulation package (Comsol) was used to predict the binder solidification time for various operating conditions usually considered in FBMG. The simulation results were validated with experimental temperature data obtained with a high speed infrared camera during solidification of ‘macroscopic’ (mm scale) droplets. For the range of microscopic droplet size and operating conditions considered for a FBMG process, the binder solidification time was found to fall approximately between 10-3 and 10-1 s. This is the slowest compared to the other three major FBMG microscopic events discussed in this series (granule–granule collision, granule–droplet collision and droplet spreading).

Time scale analysis for fluidized bed melt granulation I: granule-granule and granule-droplet collision rates

Fluidized bed spray granulators (FBMG) are widely used in the process industry for particle size growth; a desirable feature in many products, such as granulated food and medical tablets. In this paper, the first in a series of four discussing the rate of various microscopic events occurring in FBMG, theoretical analysis coupled with CFD simulations have been used to predict granule–granule and droplet–granule collision time scales. The granule–granule collision time scale was derived from principles of kinetic theory of granular flow (KTGF). For the droplet–granule collisions, two limiting models were derived; one is for the case of fast droplet velocity, where the granule velocity is considerable lower than that of the droplet (ballistic model) and another for the case where the droplet is traveling with a velocity similar to the velocity of the granules. The hydrodynamic parameters used in the solution of the above models were obtained from the CFD predictions for a typical spray fluidized bed system. The granule–granule collision rate within an identified spray zone was found to fall approximately within the range of 10-2–10-3 s, while the droplet–granule collision was found to be much faster, however, slowing rapidly (exponentially) when moving away from the spray nozzle tip. Such information, together with the time scale analysis of droplet solidification and spreading, discussed in part II and III of this study, are useful for probability analysis of the various event occurring during a granulation process, which then lead to be better qualitative and, in part IV, quantitative prediction of the aggregation rate.

Brillouin optical time-domain analysis assisted by second-order Raman amplification

We propose and experimentally demonstrate a new method to extend the range of Brillouin optical time domain analysis (BOTDA) systems. It exploits the virtual transparency created by second-order Raman pumping in optical fibers. The idea is theoretically analyzed and experimentally demonstrated in a 50 km fiber. By working close to transparency, we also show that the measurement length of the BOTDA can be increased up to 100 km with 2 meter resolution. We envisage extensions of this technique to measurement lengths well beyond this value, as long as the issue of relative intensity noise (RIN) of the primary Raman pump can be avoided. © 2010 Optical Society of America.

Az 1990-2000 között benyújtott magyar szabadalmi bejelentések környezeti hatásának idősoros elemzése (Time series analysis of environmental effects of submitted Hungarian patents between 1990 and 2000)

A szerző e kutatás keretében az 1990–2000 közötti időszak magyar intézményi és egyéni szabadalmi bejelentők, illetve jogosultak („szabadalmasok”) szabadalmainak környezeti hatását vizsgálja. Konkrétan az ebben az időszakban a Magyar Szabadalmi Hivatalnál benyújtott szabadalmi bejelentésekből elfogadott szabadalmakat tanulmányozza, a PIPACS adatbázisban található szabadalmi leírások alapján. A pozitív környezeti hatású szabadalmak száma, valamint az összes szabadalomhoz viszonyított aránya alapján von le következtetéseket a magyar környezeti innovációs tevékenységről, és ennek potenciális magyar környezeti hatásáról. A pozitív környezeti hatású szabadalmak összes megadott szabadalomhoz viszonyított aránya az időszakban 92%-os szignifikanciaszinten növekszik. _______

Application of time series analysis for bridge monitoring

Peer reviewed

Application of time series analysis for bridge monitoring

Peer reviewed

Detection of seismic damage in buildings using time series analysis and pattern recognition

Peer reviewed

Development of a real time Image analysis system for traffic monitoring applications.

Image processing offers unparalleled potential for traffic monitoring and control. For many years engineers have attempted to perfect the art of automatic data abstraction from sequences of video images. This paper outlines a research project undertaken at Napier University by the authors in the field of image processing for automatic traffic analysis. A software based system implementing TRIP algorithms to count cars and measure vehicle speed has been developed by members of the Transport Engineering Research Unit (TERU) at the University. The TRIP algorithm has been ported and evaluated on an IBM PC platform with a view to hardware implementation of the pre-processing routines required for vehicle detection. Results show that a software based traffic counting system is realisable for single window processing. Due to the high volume of data required to be processed for full frames or multiple lanes, system operations in real time are limited. Therefore specific hardware is required to be designed. The paper outlines a hardware design for implementation of inter-frame and background differencing, background updating and shadow removal techniques. Preliminary results showing the processing time and counting accuracy for the routines implemented in software are presented and a real time hardware pre-processing architecture is described.

Performance analysis in soccer: applications of player tracking technology

The aim of this thesis was threefold, firstly, to compare current player tracking technology in a single game of soccer. Secondly, to investigate the running requirements of elite women’s soccer, in particular the use and application of athlete tracking devices. Finally, how can game style be quantified and defined. Study One compared four different match analysis systems commonly used in both research and applied settings: video-based time-motion analysis, a semi-automated multiple camera based system, and two commercially available Global Positioning System (GPS) based player tracking systems at 1 Hertz (Hz) and 5 Hz respectively. A comparison was made between each of the systems when recording the same game. Total distance covered during the match for the four systems ranged from 10 830 ± 770 m (semi-automated multiple camera based system) to 9 510 ± 740m (video-based time-motion analysis). At running speeds categorised as high-intensity running (>15 km⋅h-1), the semi-automated multiple camera based system reported the highest distance of 2 650 ± 530 m with video-based time-motion analysis reporting the least amount of distance covered with 1 610 ± 370 m. At speeds considered to be sprinting (>20 km⋅h-1), the video-based time-motion analysis reported the highest value (420 ± 170 m) and 1 Hz GPS units the lowest value (230 ± 160 m). These results demonstrate there are differences in the determination of the absolute distances, and that comparison of results between match analysis systems should be made with caution. Currently, there is no criterion measure for these match analysis methods and as such it was not possible to determine if one system was more accurate than another. Study Two provided an opportunity to apply player-tracking technology (GPS) to measure activity profiles and determine the physical demands of Australian international level women soccer players. In four international women’s soccer games, data was collected on a total of 15 Australian women soccer players using a 5 Hz GPS based athlete tracking device. Results indicated that Australian women soccer players covered 9 140 ± 1 030 m during 90 min of play. The total distance covered by Australian women was less than the 10 300 m reportedly covered by female soccer players in the Danish First Division. However, there was no apparent difference in the estimated "#$%&', as measured by multi-stage shuttle tests, between these studies. This study suggests that contextual information, including the “game style” of both the team and opposition may influence physical performance in games. Study Three examined the effect the level of the opposition had on the physical output of Australian women soccer players. In total, 58 game files from 5 Hz athlete-tracking devices from 13 international matches were collected. These files were analysed to examine relationships between physical demands, represented by total distance covered, high intensity running (HIR) and distances covered sprinting, and the level of the opposition, as represented by the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) ranking at the time of the match. Higher-ranking opponents elicited less high-speed running and greater low-speed activity compared to playing teams of similar or lower ranking. The results are important to coaches and practitioners in the preparation of players for international competition, and showed that the differing physical demands required were dependent on the level of the opponents. The results also highlighted the need for continued research in the area of integrating contextual information in team sports and demonstrated that soccer can be described as having dynamic and interactive systems. The influence of playing strategy, tactics and subsequently the overall game style was highlighted as playing a significant part in the physical demands of the players. Study Four explored the concept of game style in field sports such as soccer. The aim of this study was to provide an applied framework with suggested metrics for use by coaches, media, practitioners and sports scientists. Based on the findings of Studies 1- 3 and a systematic review of the relevant literature, a theoretical framework was developed to better understand how a team’s game style could be quantified. Soccer games can be broken into key moments of play, and for each of these moments we categorised metrics that provide insight to success or otherwise, to help quantify and measure different methods of playing styles. This study highlights that to date, there had been no clear definition of game style in team sports and as such a novel definition of game style is proposed that can be used by coaches, sport scientists, performance analysts, media and general public. Studies 1-3 outline four common methods of measuring the physical demands in soccer: video based time motion analysis, GPS at 1 Hz and at 5 Hz and semiautomated multiple camera based systems. As there are no semi-automated multiple camera based systems available in Australia, primarily due to cost and logistical reasons, GPS is widely accepted for use in team sports in tracking player movements in training and competition environments. This research identified that, although there are some limitations, GPS player-tracking technology may be a valuable tool in assessing running demands in soccer players and subsequently contribute to our understanding of game style. The results of the research undertaken also reinforce the differences between methods used to analyse player movement patterns in field sports such as soccer and demonstrate that the results from different systems such as GPS based athlete tracking devices and semi-automated multiple camera based systems cannot be used interchangeably. Indeed, the magnitude of measurement differences between methods suggests that significant measurement error is evident. This was apparent even when the same technologies are used which measure at different sampling rates, such as GPS systems using either 1 Hz or 5 Hz frequencies of measurement. It was also recognised that other factors influence how team sport athletes behave within an interactive system. These factors included the strength of the opposition and their style of play. In turn, these can impact the physical demands of players that change from game to game, and even within games depending on these contextual features. Finally, the concept of what is game style and how it might be measured was examined. Game style was defined as "the characteristic playing pattern demonstrated by a team during games. It will be regularly repeated in specific situational contexts such that measurement of variables reflecting game style will be relatively stable. Variables of importance are player and ball movements, interaction of players, and will generally involve elements of speed, time and space (location)".