Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km2), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R 2) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.

A Model-Based Approach for Small-Signal Stability Assessment of Unbalanced Power Systems

In this paper, a modeling technique for small-signal stability assessment of unbalanced power systems is presented. Since power distribution systems are inherently unbalanced, due to its lines and loads characteristics, and the penetration of distributed generation into these systems is increasing nowadays, such a tool is needed in order to ensure a secure and reliable operation of these systems. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a phasor-based model for the study of dynamic phenomena in unbalanced power systems. Using an assumption on the net torque of the generator, it is possible to precisely define an equilibrium point for the phasor model of the system, thus enabling its linearization around this point, and, consequently, its eigenvalue/eigenvector analysis for small-signal stability assessment. The modeling technique presented here was compared to the dynamic behavior observed in ATP simulations and the results show that, for the generator and controller models used, the proposed modeling approach is adequate and yields reliable and precise results.

HF spectrum activity prediction model based on HMM for cognitive radio applications

Although most of the research on Cognitive Radio is focused on communication bands above the HF upper limit (30 MHz), Cognitive Radio principles can also be applied to HF communications to make use of the extremely scarce spectrum more efficiently. In this work we consider legacy users as primary users since these users transmit without resorting to any smart procedure, and our stations using the HFDVL (HF Data+Voice Link) architecture as secondary users. Our goal is to enhance an efficient use of the HF band by detecting the presence of uncoordinated primary users and avoiding collisions with them while transmitting in different HF channels using our broad-band HF transceiver. A model of the primary user activity dynamics in the HF band is developed in this work to make short-term predictions of the sojourn time of a primary user in the band and avoid collisions. It is based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM) which are a powerful tool for modelling stochastic random processes and are trained with real measurements of the 14 MHz band. By using the proposed HMM based model, the prediction model achieves an average 10.3% prediction error rate with one minute-long channel knowledge but it can be reduced when this knowledge is extended: with the previous 8 min knowledge, an average 5.8% prediction error rate is achieved. These results suggest that the resulting activity model for the HF band could actually be used to predict primary users activity and included in a future HF cognitive radio based station.

Dysfunctional 3D model based on structural and neuropsychological information

Acquired brain injury (ABI) 1-2 refers to any brain damage occurring after birth. It usually causes certain damage to portions of the brain. ABI may result in a significant impairment of an individuals physical, cognitive and/or psychosocial functioning. The main causes are traumatic brain injury (TBI), cerebrovascular accident (CVA) and brain tumors. The main consequence of ABI is a dramatic change in the individuals daily life. This change involves a disruption of the family, a loss of future income capacity and an increase of lifetime cost. One of the main challenges in neurorehabilitation is to obtain a dysfunctional profile of each patient in order to personalize the treatment. This paper proposes a system to generate a patient s dysfunctional profile by integrating theoretical, structural and neuropsychological information on a 3D brain imaging-based model. The main goal of this dysfunctional profile is to help therapists design the most suitable treatment for each patient. At the same time, the results obtained are a source of clinical evidence to improve the accuracy and quality of our rehabilitation system. Figure 1 shows the diagram of the system. This system is composed of four main modules: image-based extraction of parameters, theoretical modeling, classification and co-registration and visualization module.

Flood frequency analysis by a bivariate model based on copulas

La adecuada estimación de avenidas de diseño asociadas a altos periodos de retorno es necesaria para el diseño y gestión de estructuras hidráulicas como presas. En la práctica, la estimación de estos cuantiles se realiza normalmente a través de análisis de frecuencia univariados, basados en su mayoría en el estudio de caudales punta. Sin embargo, la naturaleza de las avenidas es multivariada, siendo esencial tener en cuenta características representativas de las avenidas, tales como caudal punta, volumen y duración del hidrograma, con el fin de llevar a cabo un análisis apropiado; especialmente cuando el caudal de entrada se transforma en un caudal de salida diferente durante el proceso de laminación en un embalse o llanura de inundación. Los análisis de frecuencia de avenidas multivariados han sido tradicionalmente llevados a cabo mediante el uso de distribuciones bivariadas estándar con el fin de modelar variables correlacionadas. Sin embargo, su uso conlleva limitaciones como la necesidad de usar el mismo tipo de distribuciones marginales para todas las variables y la existencia de una relación de dependencia lineal entre ellas. Recientemente, el uso de cópulas se ha extendido en hidrología debido a sus beneficios en relación al contexto multivariado, permitiendo superar los inconvenientes de las técnicas tradicionales. Una copula es una función que representa la estructura de dependencia de las variables de estudio, y permite obtener la distribución de frecuencia multivariada de dichas variables mediante sus distribuciones marginales, sin importar el tipo de distribución marginal utilizada. La estimación de periodos de retorno multivariados, y por lo tanto, de cuantiles multivariados, también se facilita debido a la manera en la que las cópulas están formuladas. La presente tesis doctoral busca proporcionar metodologías que mejoren las técnicas tradicionales usadas por profesionales para estimar cuantiles de avenida más adecuados para el diseño y la gestión de presas, así como para la evaluación del riesgo de avenida, mediante análisis de frecuencia de avenidas bivariados basados en cópulas. Las variables consideradas para ello son el caudal punta y el volumen del hidrograma. Con el objetivo de llevar a cabo un estudio completo, la presente investigación abarca: (i) el análisis de frecuencia de avenidas local bivariado centrado en examinar y comparar los periodos de retorno teóricos basados en la probabilidad natural de ocurrencia de una avenida, con el periodo de retorno asociado al riesgo de sobrevertido de la presa bajo análisis, con el fin de proporcionar cuantiles en una estación de aforo determinada; (ii) la extensión del enfoque local al regional, proporcionando un procedimiento completo para llevar a cabo un análisis de frecuencia de avenidas regional bivariado para proporcionar cuantiles en estaciones sin aforar o para mejorar la estimación de dichos cuantiles en estaciones aforadas; (iii) el uso de cópulas para investigar tendencias bivariadas en avenidas debido al aumento de los niveles de urbanización en una cuenca; y (iv) la extensión de series de avenida observadas mediante la combinación de los beneficios de un modelo basado en cópulas y de un modelo hidrometeorológico. Accurate design flood estimates associated with high return periods are necessary to design and manage hydraulic structures such as dams. In practice, the estimate of such quantiles is usually done via univariate flood frequency analyses, mostly based on the study of peak flows. Nevertheless, the nature of floods is multivariate, being essential to consider representative flood characteristics, such as flood peak, hydrograph volume and hydrograph duration to carry out an appropriate analysis; especially when the inflow peak is transformed into a different outflow peak during the routing process in a reservoir or floodplain. Multivariate flood frequency analyses have been traditionally performed by using standard bivariate distributions to model correlated variables, yet they entail some shortcomings such as the need of using the same kind of marginal distribution for all variables and the assumption of a linear dependence relation between them. Recently, the use of copulas has been extended in hydrology because of their benefits regarding dealing with the multivariate context, as they overcome the drawbacks of the traditional approach. A copula is a function that represents the dependence structure of the studied variables, and allows obtaining the multivariate frequency distribution of them by using their marginal distributions, regardless of the kind of marginal distributions considered. The estimate of multivariate return periods, and therefore multivariate quantiles, is also facilitated by the way in which copulas are formulated. The present doctoral thesis seeks to provide methodologies that improve traditional techniques used by practitioners, in order to estimate more appropriate flood quantiles for dam design, dam management and flood risk assessment, through bivariate flood frequency analyses based on the copula approach. The flood variables considered for that goal are peak flow and hydrograph volume. In order to accomplish a complete study, the present research addresses: (i) a bivariate local flood frequency analysis focused on examining and comparing theoretical return periods based on the natural probability of occurrence of a flood, with the return period associated with the risk of dam overtopping, to estimate quantiles at a given gauged site; (ii) the extension of the local to the regional approach, supplying a complete procedure for performing a bivariate regional flood frequency analysis to either estimate quantiles at ungauged sites or improve at-site estimates at gauged sites; (iii) the use of copulas to investigate bivariate flood trends due to increasing urbanisation levels in a catchment; and (iv) the extension of observed flood series by combining the benefits of a copula-based model and a hydro-meteorological model.

A fuzzy AHP based integer linear programming model for the multi-criteria transshipment problem

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to develop a holistic approach to maximize the customer service level while minimizing the logistics cost by using an integrated multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) method for the contemporary transshipment problem. Unlike the prevalent optimization techniques, this paper proposes an integrated approach which considers both quantitative and qualitative factors in order to maximize the benefits of service deliverers and customers under uncertain environments. Design/methodology/approach – This paper proposes a fuzzy-based integer linear programming model, based on the existing literature and validated with an example case. The model integrates the developed fuzzy modification of the analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), and solves the multi-criteria transshipment problem. Findings – This paper provides several novel insights about how to transform a company from a cost-based model to a service-dominated model by using an integrated MCDM method. It suggests that the contemporary customer-driven supply chain remains and increases its competitiveness from two aspects: optimizing the cost and providing the best service simultaneously. Research limitations/implications – This research used one illustrative industry case to exemplify the developed method. Considering the generalization of the research findings and the complexity of the transshipment service network, more cases across multiple industries are necessary to further enhance the validity of the research output. Practical implications – The paper includes implications for the evaluation and selection of transshipment service suppliers, the construction of optimal transshipment network as well as managing the network. Originality/value – The major advantages of this generic approach are that both quantitative and qualitative factors under fuzzy environment are considered simultaneously and also the viewpoints of service deliverers and customers are focused. Therefore, it is believed that it is useful and applicable for the transshipment service network design.

A gloss composition and context clustering based distributed word sense representation model

In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in learning a distributed representation of word sense. Traditional context clustering based models usually require careful tuning of model parameters, and typically perform worse on infrequent word senses. This paper presents a novel approach which addresses these limitations by first initializing the word sense embeddings through learning sentence-level embeddings from WordNet glosses using a convolutional neural networks. The initialized word sense embeddings are used by a context clustering based model to generate the distributed representations of word senses. Our learned representations outperform the publicly available embeddings on half of the metrics in the word similarity task, 6 out of 13 sub tasks in the analogical reasoning task, and gives the best overall accuracy in the word sense effect classification task, which shows the effectiveness of our proposed distributed distribution learning model.

Evaluating Effects of Everglades Restoration on American Crocodile Populations in South Florida Using a Spatially-Explicit, Stage-Based Population Model

The distribution and abundance of the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in the Florida Everglades is dependent on the timing, amount, and location of freshwater flow. One of the goals of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is to restore historic freshwater flows to American crocodile habitat throughout the Everglades. To predict the impacts on the crocodile population from planned restoration activities, we created a stage-based spatially explicit crocodile population model that incorporated regional hydrology models and American crocodile research and monitoring data. Growth and survival were influenced by salinity, water depth, and density-dependent interactions. A stage-structured spatial model was used with discrete spatial convolution to direct crocodiles toward attractive sources where conditions were favorable. The model predicted that CERP would have both positive and negative impacts on American crocodile growth, survival, and distribution. Overall, crocodile populations across south Florida were predicted to decrease approximately 3 % with the implementation of CERP compared to future conditions without restoration, but local increases up to 30 % occurred in the Joe Bay area near Taylor Slough, and local decreases up to 30 % occurred in the vicinity of Buttonwood Canal due to changes in salinity and freshwater flows.

Parametric CAD model based shape optimization using adjoint functions

Adjoint methods have proven to be an efficient way of calculating the gradient of an objective function with respect to a shape parameter for optimisation, with a computational cost nearly independent of the number of the design variables [1]. The approach in this paper links the adjoint surface sensitivities (gradient of objective function with respect to the surface movement) with the parametric design velocities (movement of the surface due to a CAD parameter perturbation) in order to compute the gradient of the objective function with respect to CAD variables.
For a successful implementation of shape optimization strategies in practical industrial cases, the choice of design variables or parameterisation scheme used for the model to be optimized plays a vital role. Where the goal is to base the optimization on a CAD model the choices are to use a NURBS geometry generated from CAD modelling software, where the position of the NURBS control points are the optimisation variables [2] or to use the feature based CAD model with all of the construction history to preserve the design intent [3]. The main advantage of using the feature based model is that the optimized model produced can be directly used for the downstream applications including manufacturing and process planning.
This paper presents an approach for optimization based on the feature based CAD model, which uses CAD parameters defining the features in the model geometry as the design variables. In order to capture the CAD surface movement with respect to the change in design variable, the “Parametric Design Velocity” is calculated, which is defined as the movement of the CAD model boundary in the normal direction due to a change in the parameter value.
The approach presented here for calculating the design velocities represents an advancement in terms of capability and robustness of that described by Robinson et al. [3]. The process can be easily integrated to most industrial optimisation workflows and is immune to the topology and labelling issues highlighted by other CAD based optimisation processes. It considers every continuous (“real value”) parameter type as an optimisation variable, and it can be adapted to work with any CAD modelling software, as long as it has an API which provides access to the values of the parameters which control the model shape and allows the model geometry to be exported. To calculate the movement of the boundary the methodology employs finite differences on the shape of the 3D CAD models before and after the parameter perturbation. The implementation procedure includes calculating the geometrical movement along a normal direction between two discrete representations of the original and perturbed geometry respectively. Parametric design velocities can then be directly linked with adjoint surface sensitivities to extract the gradients to use in a gradient-based optimization algorithm.
The optimisation of a flow optimisation problem is presented, in which the power dissipation of the flow in an automotive air duct is to be reduced by changing the parameters of the CAD geometry created in CATIA V5. The flow sensitivities are computed with the continuous adjoint method for a laminar and turbulent flow [4] and are combined with the parametric design velocities to compute the cost function gradients. A line-search algorithm is then used to update the design variables and proceed further with optimisation process.

Towards a new employment relationship model

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine and extend Noer’s theoretical model of the new employment relationship. Design/methodology/approach – Case study methodology is used to scrutinise the model. The results of a literature-based survey on the elements underpinning the five values in the model are analysed from dual perspectives of individual and organization using a multi-source assessment instrument. A schema is developed to guide and inform a series of focus group discussions from an analysis of the survey data. Using content analysis, the transcripts from the focus group discussions are evaluated using the model’s values and their elements. The transcripts are also reviewed for implicit themes. The case studied is Flight Centre Limited, an Australian-based international retail travel company. Findings – Using this approach, some elements of the five values in Noer’s model are identified as characteristic of the company’s psychological contract. Specifically, to some extent, the model’s values of flexible deployment, customer focus, performance focus, project-based work, and human spirit and work can be applied in this case. A further analysis of the transcripts validates three additional values in the psychological contract literature: commitment; learning and development; and open information. As a result of the findings, Noer’s model is extended to eight values. Research limitations/implications – The study offers a research-based model of the new employment relationship. Since generalisations from the case study findings cannot be applied directly to other settings, the opportunity to test this model in a variety of contexts is open to other researchers. Originality/value – In practice, the methodology used is a unique process for benchmarking the psychological contract. The process may be applied in other business settings. By doing so, organization development professionals have a consulting framework for comparing an organization’s dominant psychological contract with the extended model presented here.

The applicability of biased estimation in model and model order selection

Biased estimation has the advantage of reducing the mean squared error (MSE) of an estimator. The question of interest is how biased estimation affects model selection. In this paper, we introduce biased estimation to a range of model selection criteria. Specifically, we analyze the performance of the minimum description length (MDL) criterion based on biased and unbiased estimation and compare it against modern model selection criteria such as Kay's conditional model order estimator (CME), the bootstrap and the more recently proposed hook-and-loop resampling based model selection. The advantages and limitations of the considered techniques are discussed. The results indicate that, in some cases, biased estimators can slightly improve the selection of the correct model. We also give an example for which the CME with an unbiased estimator fails, but could regain its power when a biased estimator is used.

Port of Brisbane stormwater quality : stage 2 development of a port specific water quality model

Background: The quality of stormwater runoff from ports is significant as it can be an important source of pollution to the marine environment. This is also a significant issue for the Port of Brisbane as it is located in an area of high environmental values. Therefore, it is imperative to develop an in-depth understanding of stormwater runoff quality to ensure that appropriate strategies are in place for quality improvement, where necessary. To this end, the Port of Brisbane Corporation aimed to develop a port specific stormwater model for the Fisherman Islands facility. The need has to be considered in the context of the proposed future developments of the Port area. ----------------- The Project: The research project is an outcome of the collaborative Partnership between the Port of Brisbane Corporation (POBC) and Queensland University of Technology (QUT). A key feature of this Partnership is that it seeks to undertake research to assist the Port in strengthening the environmental custodianship of the Port area through ‘cutting edge’ research and its translation into practical application. ------------------ The project was separated into two stages. The first stage developed a quantitative understanding of the generation potential of pollutant loads in the existing land uses. This knowledge was then used as input for the stormwater quality model developed in the subsequent stage. The aim is to expand this model across the yet to be developed port expansion area. This is in order to predict pollutant loads associated with stormwater flows from this area with the longer term objective of contributing to the development of ecological risk mitigation strategies for future expansion scenarios. ----------------- Study approach: Stage 1 of the overall study confirmed that Port land uses are unique in terms of the anthropogenic activities occurring on them. This uniqueness in land use results in distinctive stormwater quality characteristics different to other conventional urban land uses. Therefore, it was not scientifically valid to consider the Port as belonging to a single land use category or to consider as being similar to any typical urban land use. The approach adopted in this study was very different to conventional modelling studies where modelling parameters are developed using calibration. The field investigations undertaken in Stage 1 of the overall study helped to create fundamental knowledge on pollutant build-up and wash-off in different Port land uses. This knowledge was then used in computer modelling so that the specific characteristics of pollutant build-up and wash-off can be replicated. This meant that no calibration processes were involved due to the use of measured parameters for build-up and wash-off. ---------------- Conclusions: Stage 2 of the study was primarily undertaken using the SWMM stormwater quality model. It is a physically based model which replicates natural processes as closely as possible. The time step used and catchment variability considered was adequate to accommodate the temporal and spatial variability of input parameters and the parameters used in the modelling reflect the true nature of rainfall-runoff and pollutant processes to the best of currently available knowledge. In this study, the initial loss values adopted for the impervious surfaces are relatively high compared to values noted in research literature. However, given the scientifically valid approach used for the field investigations, it is appropriate to adopt the initial losses derived from this study for future modelling of Port land uses. The relatively high initial losses will reduce the runoff volume generated as well as the frequency of runoff events significantly. Apart from initial losses, most of the other parameters used in SWMM modelling are generic to most modelling studies. Development of parameters for MUSIC model source nodes was one of the primary objectives of this study. MUSIC, uses the mean and standard deviation of pollutant parameters based on a normal distribution. However, based on the values generated in this study, the variation of Event Mean Concentrations (EMCs) for Port land uses within the given investigation period does not fit a normal distribution. This is possibly due to the fact that only one specific location was considered, namely the Port of Brisbane unlike in the case of the MUSIC model where a range of areas with different geographic and climatic conditions were investigated. Consequently, the assumptions used in MUSIC are not totally applicable for the analysis of water quality in Port land uses. Therefore, in using the parameters included in this report for MUSIC modelling, it is important to note that it may result in under or over estimations of annual pollutant loads. It is recommended that the annual pollutant load values given in the report should be used as a guide to assess the accuracy of the modelling outcomes. A step by step guide for using the knowledge generated from this study for MUSIC modelling is given in Table 4.6. ------------------ Recommendations: The following recommendations are provided to further strengthen the cutting edge nature of the work undertaken: * It is important to further validate the approach recommended for stormwater quality modelling at the Port. Validation will require data collection in relation to rainfall, runoff and water quality from the selected Port land uses. Additionally, the recommended modelling approach could be applied to a soon-to-be-developed area to assess ‘before’ and ‘after’ scenarios. * In the modelling study, TSS was adopted as the surrogate parameter for other pollutants. This approach was based on other urban water quality research undertaken at QUT. The validity of this approach should be further assessed for Port land uses. * The adoption of TSS as a surrogate parameter for other pollutants and the confirmation that the <150 m particle size range was predominant in suspended solids for pollutant wash-off gives rise to a number of important considerations. The ability of the existing structural stormwater mitigation measures to remove the <150 m particle size range need to be assessed. The feasibility of introducing source control measures as opposed to end-of-pipe measures for stormwater quality improvement may also need to be considered.

Assessing the leanness in product design : a model for planned design reuse

Shrinking product lifecycles, tough international competition, swiftly changing technologies, ever increasing customer quality expectation and demanding high variety options are some of the forces that drive next generation of development processes. To overcome these challenges, design cost and development time of product has to be reduced as well as quality to be improved. Design reuse is considered one of the lean strategies to win the race in this competitive environment. design reuse can reduce the product development time, product development cost as well as number of defects which will ultimately influence the product performance in cost, time and quality. However, it has been found that no or little work has been carried out for quantifying the effectiveness of design reuse in product development performance such as design cost, development time and quality. Therefore, in this study we propose a systematic design reuse based product design framework and developed a design leanness index (DLI) as a measure of effectiveness of design reuse. The DLI is a representative measure of reuse effectiveness in cost, development time and quality. Through this index, a clear relationship between reuse measure and product development performance metrics has been established. Finally, a cost based model has been developed to maximise the design leanness index for a product within the given set of constraints achieving leanness in design process.

Engineering-based modelling experiences in the elementary classroom

Introducing engineering-based model-eliciting experiences in the elementary curriculum is a new and increasingly important domain of research by mathematics, science, technology, and engineering educators. Recent research has raised questions about the context of engineering problems that are meaningful, engaging, and inspiring for young students. In the present study an environmental engineering activity was implemented in two classes of 11-year-old students in Cyprus. The problem required students to develop a procedure for selecting among alternative countries from which to buy water. Students created a range of models that adequately solved the problem although not all models took into account all of the data provided. The models varied in the number of problem factors taken into consideration and also in the different approaches adopted in dealing with the problem factors. At least two groups of students integrated into their models the environmental aspect of the problem (energy consumption, water pollution) and further refined their models. Results indicate that engineering model-eliciting activities can be introduced effectively into the elementary curriculum, providing rich opportunities for students to deal with engineering contexts and to apply their learning in mathematics and science to solving real-world engineering problems.

Models of collective cell behaviour with crowding effects : comparing lattice-based and lattice-free approaches

Individual-based models describing the migration and proliferation of a population of cells frequently restrict the cells to a predefined lattice. An implicit assumption of this type of lattice based model is that a proliferative population will always eventually fill the lattice. Here we develop a new lattice-free individual-based model that incorporates cell-to-cell crowding effects. We also derive approximate mean-field descriptions for the lattice-free model in two special cases motivated by commonly used experimental setups. Lattice-free simulation results are compared to these mean-field descriptions and to a corresponding lattice-based model. Data from a proliferation experiment is used to estimate the parameters for the new model, including the cell proliferation rate, showing that the model fits the data well. An important aspect of the lattice-free model is that the confluent cell density is not predefined, as with lattice-based models, but an emergent model property. As a consequence of the more realistic, irregular configuration of cells in the lattice-free model, the population growth rate is much slower at high cell densities and the population cannot reach the same confluent density as an equivalent lattice-based model.