The future of office property

The following paper considers the question, where to office property? In doing so, it focuses, in the first instance, on identifying and describing a selection of key forces for change present within the contemporary operating environment in which office property functions. Given the increasingly complex, dynamic and multi-faceted character of this environment, the paper seeks to identify only the primary forces for change, within the context of the future of office property. These core drivers of change have, for the purposes of this discussion, been characterised as including a range of economic, demographic and socio-cultural factors, together with developments in information and communication technology. Having established this foundation, the paper proceeds to consider the manner in which these forces may, in the future, be manifested within the office property market. Comment is offered regarding the potential future implications of these forces for change together with their likely influence on the nature and management of the physical asset itself. Whilst no explicit time horizon has been envisioned in the preparation of this paper particular attention has been accorded short to medium term trends, that is, those likely to emerge in the office property marketplace over the coming two decades. Further, the paper considers the question posed, in respect of the future of office property, in the context of developed western nations. The degree of commonality seen in these mature markets is such that generalisations may more appropriately and robustly be applied. Whilst some of the comments offered with respect to the target market may find application in other arenas, it is beyond the scope of this paper to explicitly consider highly heterogeneous markets. Given also the wide scope of this paper key drivers for change and their likely implications for the commercial office property market are identified at a global level (within the above established parameters). Accordingly, the focus is necessarily such that it serves to reflect overarching directions at a universal level (with the effect being that direct applicability to individual markets - when viewed in isolation on a geographic or property type specific basis – may not be fitting in all instances)

Creative design and the generative evolutionary paradigm

Design as seen from the designer's perspective is a series of amazing imaginative jumps or creative leaps. But design as seen by the design historian is a smooth progression or evolution of ideas that they seem self-evident and inevitable after the event. But the next step is anything but obvious for the artist/creator/inventor/designer stuck at that point just before the creative leap. They know where they have come from and have a general sense of where they are going, but often do not have a precise target or goal. This is why it is misleading to talk of design as a problem-solving activity - it is better defined as a problem-finding activity. This has been very frustrating for those trying to assist the design process with computer-based, problem-solving techniques. By the time the problem has been defined, it has been solved. Indeed the solution is often the very definition of the problem. Design must be creative-or it is mere imitation. But since this crucial creative leap seem inevitable after the event, the question must arise, can we find some way of searching the space ahead? Of course there are serious problems of knowing what we are looking for and the vastness of the search space. It may be better to discard altogether the term "searching" in the context of the design process: Conceptual analogies such as search, search spaces and fitness landscapes aim to elucidate the design process. However, the vastness of the multidimensional spaces involved make these analogies misguided and they thereby actually result in further confounding the issue. The term search becomes a misnomer since it has connotations that imply that it is possible to find what you are looking for. In such vast spaces the term search must be discarded. Thus, any attempt at searching for the highest peak in the fitness landscape as an optimal solution is also meaningless. Futhermore, even the very existence of a fitness landscape is fallacious. Although alternatives in the same region of the vast space can be compared to one another, distant alternatives will stem from radically different roots and will therefore not be comparable in any straightforward manner (Janssen 2000). Nevertheless we still have this tantalizing possibility that if a creative idea seems inevitable after the event, then somehow might the process be rserved? This may be as improbable as attempting to reverse time. A more helpful analogy is from nature, where it is generally assumed that the process of evolution is not long-term goal directed or teleological. Dennett points out a common minsunderstanding of Darwinism: the idea that evolution by natural selection is a procedure for producing human beings. Evolution can have produced humankind by an algorithmic process, without its being true that evolution is an algorithm for producing us. If we were to wind the tape of life back and run this algorithm again, the likelihood of "us" being created again is infinitesimally small (Gould 1989; Dennett 1995). But nevertheless Mother Nature has proved a remarkably successful, resourceful, and imaginative inventor generating a constant flow of incredible new design ideas to fire our imagination. Hence the current interest in the potential of the evolutionary paradigm in design. These evolutionary methods are frequently based on techniques such as the application of evolutionary algorithms that are usually thought of as search algorithms. It is necessary to abandon such connections with searching and see the evolutionary algorithm as a direct analogy with the evolutionary processes of nature. The process of natural selection can generate a wealth of alternative experiements, and the better ones survive. There is no one solution, there is no optimal solution, but there is continuous experiment. Nature is profligate with her prototyping and ruthless in her elimination of less successful experiments. Most importantly, nature has all the time in the world. As designers we cannot afford prototyping and ruthless experiment, nor can we operate on the time scale of the natural design process. Instead we can use the computer to compress space and time and to perform virtual prototyping and evaluation before committing ourselves to actual prototypes. This is the hypothesis underlying the evolutionary paradigm in design (1992, 1995).

Application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in multi-criteria analysis of the selection of intelligent building systems

The availability of innumerable intelligent building (IB) products, and the current dearth of inclusive building component selection methods suggest that decision makers might be confronted with the quandary of forming a particular combination of components to suit the needs of a specific IB project. Despite this problem, few empirical studies have so far been undertaken to analyse the selection of the IB systems, and to identify key selection criteria for major IB systems. This study is designed to fill these research gaps. Two surveys: a general survey and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) survey are proposed to achieve these objectives. The first general survey aims to collect general views from IB experts and practitioners to identify the perceived critical selection criteria, while the AHP survey was conducted to prioritize and assign the important weightings for the perceived criteria in the general survey. Results generally suggest that each IB system was determined by a disparate set of selection criteria with different weightings. ‘Work efficiency’ is perceived to be most important core selection criterion for various IB systems, while ‘user comfort’, ‘safety’ and ‘cost effectiveness’ are also considered to be significant. Two sub-criteria, ‘reliability’ and ‘operating and maintenance costs’, are regarded as prime factors to be considered in selecting IB systems. The current study contributes to the industry and IB research in at least two aspects. First, it widens the understanding of the selection criteria, as well as their degree of importance, of the IB systems. It also adopts a multi-criteria AHP approach which is a new method to analyse and select the building systems in IB. Further research would investigate the inter-relationship amongst the selection criteria.

Cultural selection and its influence on perceptions of reputation within organisations

The capacity to identify, interpret, and prioritise environmental issues is critical in the management of corporate reputation. In spite of the significance of these abilities for corporate reputation management, there has been little effort to document and describe internal organizational influences on these capacities. Contrary to this state of affairs in the discipline of public relations, a long history of ethnographic research in cultural anthropology documents how sets of shared environmental perceptions can influence and moderate environmental factors in cultural populations (see for example, Durham, 1991 ). This study explores how cultural “frames of reference” derived from shared values and assumptions among organizational members influence organizational perceptions, and consequently, organizational actions. Specifically, this study explores how a central attribute of organizational culture--the property of cultural selection-- influences perceptions of organizational reputation held by organizational members. Perceptions of reputation among organizational members are obvious drivers to both the nature of and rationale for organizational communication strategies and responses. These perceptions are the result of collective processes that synthesise (with varying degrees of consensus) member conceptualisations, interpretations, and representations of the environmental realities in which their organization operate. To explore how cultural selection influences member perceptions of organizational reputation, this study employs ethnographic research including 20 depth interviews and six months of organizational observation in the focal organization. We argue that while external indicators of organizational reputation are acknowledged by members as significant, the internal action of cultural selection is a far stronger influence on organizational action.