Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Application of Fuzzy Variables for Systems of Management Decision Support

The following article describes an approach covering the variety of opinions and uncertainties of estimates within the chosen technique of decision support. Mathematical operations used for assessment of options are traced to operations of working with functions that are used for assessment of possible options of decision-making. Approach proposed could be used within any technique of decision support based on elementary mathematical operations. In this article the above-mentioned approach is described under analytical hierarchy process.

Modelling, control and supervision for a class of hybrid systems

The aim of this thesis is to narrow the gap between two different control techniques: the continuous control and the discrete event control techniques DES. This gap can be reduced by the study of Hybrid systems, and by interpreting as Hybrid systems the majority of large-scale systems. In particular, when looking deeply into a process, it is often possible to identify interaction between discrete and continuous signals. Hybrid systems are systems that have both continuous, and discrete signals. Continuous signals are generally supposed continuous and differentiable in time, since discrete signals are neither continuous nor differentiable in time due to their abrupt changes in time. Continuous signals often represent the measure of natural physical magnitudes such as temperature, pressure etc. The discrete signals are normally artificial signals, operated by human artefacts as current, voltage, light etc. Typical processes modelled as Hybrid systems are production systems, chemical process, or continuos production when time and continuous measures interacts with the transport, and stock inventory system. Complex systems as manufacturing lines are hybrid in a global sense. They can be decomposed into several subsystems, and their links. Another motivation for the study of Hybrid systems is the tools developed by other research domains. These tools benefit from the use of temporal logic for the analysis of several properties of Hybrid systems model, and use it to design systems and controllers, which satisfies physical or imposed restrictions. This thesis is focused in particular types of systems with discrete and continuous signals in interaction. That can be modelled hard non-linealities, such as hysteresis, jumps in the state, limit cycles, etc. and their possible non-deterministic future behaviour expressed by an interpretable model description. The Hybrid systems treated in this work are systems with several discrete states, always less than thirty states (it can arrive to NP hard problem), and continuous dynamics evolving with expression: with Ki ¡ Rn constant vectors or matrices for X components vector. In several states the continuous evolution can be several of them Ki = 0. In this formulation, the mathematics can express Time invariant linear system. By the use of this expression for a local part, the combination of several local linear models is possible to represent non-linear systems. And with the interaction with discrete events of the system the model can compose non-linear Hybrid systems. Especially multistage processes with high continuous dynamics are well represented by the proposed methodology. Sate vectors with more than two components, as third order models or higher is well approximated by the proposed approximation. Flexible belt transmission, chemical reactions with initial start-up and mobile robots with important friction are several physical systems, which profits from the benefits of proposed methodology (accuracy). The motivation of this thesis is to obtain a solution that can control and drive the Hybrid systems from the origin or starting point to the goal. How to obtain this solution, and which is the best solution in terms of one cost function subject to the physical restrictions and control actions is analysed. Hybrid systems that have several possible states, different ways to drive the system to the goal and different continuous control signals are problems that motivate this research. The requirements of the system on which we work is: a model that can represent the behaviour of the non-linear systems, and that possibilities the prediction of possible future behaviour for the model, in order to apply an supervisor which decides the optimal and secure action to drive the system toward the goal. Specific problems can be determined by the use of this kind of hybrid models are: - The unity of order. - Control the system along a reachable path. - Control the system in a safe path. - Optimise the cost function. - Modularity of control The proposed model solves the specified problems in the switching models problem, the initial condition calculus and the unity of the order models. Continuous and discrete phenomena are represented in Linear hybrid models, defined with defined eighth-tuple parameters to model different types of hybrid phenomena. Applying a transformation over the state vector : for LTI system we obtain from a two-dimensional SS a single parameter, alpha, which still maintains the dynamical information. Combining this parameter with the system output, a complete description of the system is obtained in a form of a graph in polar representation. Using Tagaki-Sugeno type III is a fuzzy model which include linear time invariant LTI models for each local model, the fuzzyfication of different LTI local model gives as a result a non-linear time invariant model. In our case the output and the alpha measure govern the membership function. Hybrid systems control is a huge task, the processes need to be guided from the Starting point to the desired End point, passing a through of different specific states and points in the trajectory. The system can be structured in different levels of abstraction and the control in three layers for the Hybrid systems from planning the process to produce the actions, these are the planning, the process and control layer. In this case the algorithms will be applied to robotics ¡V a domain where improvements are well accepted ¡V it is expected to find a simple repetitive processes for which the extra effort in complexity can be compensated by some cost reductions. It may be also interesting to implement some control optimisation to processes such as fuel injection, DC-DC converters etc. In order to apply the RW theory of discrete event systems on a Hybrid system, we must abstract the continuous signals and to project the events generated for these signals, to obtain new sets of observable and controllable events. Ramadge & Wonham¡¦s theory along with the TCT software give a Controllable Sublanguage of the legal language generated for a Discrete Event System (DES). Continuous abstraction transforms predicates over continuous variables into controllable or uncontrollable events, and modifies the set of uncontrollable, controllable observable and unobservable events. Continuous signals produce into the system virtual events, when this crosses the bound limits. If this event is deterministic, they can be projected. It is necessary to determine the controllability of this event, in order to assign this to the corresponding set, , controllable, uncontrollable, observable and unobservable set of events. Find optimal trajectories in order to minimise some cost function is the goal of the modelling procedure. Mathematical model for the system allows the user to apply mathematical techniques over this expression. These possibilities are, to minimise a specific cost function, to obtain optimal controllers and to approximate a specific trajectory. The combination of the Dynamic Programming with Bellman Principle of optimality, give us the procedure to solve the minimum time trajectory for Hybrid systems. The problem is greater when there exists interaction between adjacent states. In Hybrid systems the problem is to determine the partial set points to be applied at the local models. Optimal controller can be implemented in each local model in order to assure the minimisation of the local costs. The solution of this problem needs to give us the trajectory to follow the system. Trajectory marked by a set of set points to force the system to passing over them. Several ways are possible to drive the system from the Starting point Xi to the End point Xf. Different ways are interesting in: dynamic sense, minimum states, approximation at set points, etc. These ways need to be safe and viable and RchW. And only one of them must to be applied, normally the best, which minimises the proposed cost function. A Reachable Way, this means the controllable way and safe, will be evaluated in order to obtain which one minimises the cost function. Contribution of this work is a complete framework to work with the majority Hybrid systems, the procedures to model, control and supervise are defined and explained and its use is demonstrated. Also explained is the procedure to model the systems to be analysed for automatic verification. Great improvements were obtained by using this methodology in comparison to using other piecewise linear approximations. It is demonstrated in particular cases this methodology can provide best approximation. The most important contribution of this work, is the Alpha approximation for non-linear systems with high dynamics While this kind of process is not typical, but in this case the Alpha approximation is the best linear approximation to use, and give a compact representation.

Web-based occupant feedback for building energy management systems using fuzzy logic

This paper describes the development and validation of a novel web-based interface for the gathering of feedback from building occupants about their environmental discomfort including signs of Sick Building Syndrome (SBS). The gathering of such feedback may enable better targeting of environmental discomfort down to the individual as well as the early detection and subsequently resolution by building services of more complex issues such as SBS. The occupant's discomfort is interpreted and converted to air-conditioning system set points using Fuzzy Logic. Experimental results from a multi-zone air-conditioning test rig have been included in this paper.

Distributed fuzzy logic for building management systems using local operating networks

This paper describes the development of an experimental distributed fuzzy control system for heating and ventilation (HVAC) systems within a building. Each local control loop is affected by a number of local variables, as well as information from neighboring controllers. By including this additional information it is hoped that a more equal allocation of resources can be achieved.

Incorporating semiotics into fuzzy logic to enhance Clinical Decision Support Systems

In order to enhance the quality of care, healthcare organisations are increasingly resorting to clinical decision support systems (CDSSs), which provide physicians with appropriate health care decisions or recommendations. However, how to explicitly represent the diverse vague medical knowledge and effectively reason in the decision-making process are still problems we are confronted. In this paper, we incorporate semiotics into fuzzy logic to enhance CDSSs with the aim of providing both the abilities of describing medical domain concepts contextually and reasoning with vague knowledge. A semiotically inspired fuzzy CDSSs framework is presented, based on which the vague knowledge representation and reasoning process are demonstrated.

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire management’ scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Transient stability analysis of electric energy systems via a fuzzy ART-ARTMAP neural network

This work presents a methodology to analyze transient stability (first oscillation) of electric energy systems, using a neural network based on ART architecture (adaptive resonance theory), named fuzzy ART-ARTMAP neural network for real time applications. The security margin is used as a stability analysis criterion, considering three-phase short circuit faults with a transmission line outage. The neural network operation consists of two fundamental phases: the training and the analysis. The training phase needs a great quantity of processing for the realization, while the analysis phase is effectuated almost without computation effort. This is, therefore the principal purpose to use neural networks for solving complex problems that need fast solutions, as the applications in real time. The ART neural networks have as primordial characteristics the plasticity and the stability, which are essential qualities to the training execution and to an efficient analysis. The fuzzy ART-ARTMAP neural network is proposed seeking a superior performance, in terms of precision and speed, when compared to conventional ARTMAP, and much more when compared to the neural networks that use the training by backpropagation algorithm, which is a benchmark in neural network area. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust fault diagnosis in power distribution systems based on fuzzy ARTMAP neural network-aided evidence theory

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

On Fuzzy Implication Classes - Towards Extensions of Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems

Atualmente, há diferentes definições de implicações fuzzy aceitas na literatura. Do ponto de vista teórico, esta falta de consenso demonstra que há discordâncias sobre o real significado de "implicação lógica" nos contextos Booleano e fuzzy. Do ponto de vista prático, isso gera dúvidas a respeito de quais "operadores de implicação" os engenheiros de software devem considerar para implementar um Sistema Baseado em Regras Fuzzy (SBRF). Uma escolha ruim destes operadores pode implicar em SBRF's com menor acurácia e menos apropriados aos seus domínios de aplicação. Uma forma de contornar esta situação e conhecer melhor os conectivos lógicos fuzzy. Para isso se faz necessário saber quais propriedades tais conectivos podem satisfazer. Portanto, a m de corroborar com o significado de implicação fuzzy e corroborar com a implementação de SBRF's mais apropriados, várias leis Booleanas têm sido generalizadas e estudadas como equações ou inequações nas lógicas fuzzy. Tais generalizações são chamadas de leis Boolean-like e elas não são comumente válidas em qualquer semântica fuzzy. Neste cenário, esta dissertação apresenta uma investigação sobre as condições suficientes e necessárias nas quais três leis Booleanlike like — y ≤ I(x, y), I(x, I(y, x)) = 1 e I(x, I(y, z)) = I(I(x, y), I(x, z)) — se mantém válidas no contexto fuzzy, considerando seis classes de implicações fuzzy e implicações geradas por automorfismos. Além disso, ainda no intuito de implementar SBRF's mais apropriados, propomos uma extensão para os mesmos

Applying fuzzy logic systems in the estimation of crossflow filtration processes

The crossflow filtration process differs of the conventional filtration by presenting the circulation flow tangentially to the filtration surface. The conventional mathematical models used to represent the process have some limitations in relation to the identification and generalization of the system behavior. In this paper, a system based on fuzzy logic systems is developed to overcome the problems usually found in the conventional mathematical models. Imprecisions and uncertainties associated with the measurements made on the system are automatically incorporated in the fuzzy approach. Simulation results are presented to justify the validity of the proposed approach.

Transient stability analysis of electrical power systems using a neural network based on fuzzy ARTMAP

This work presents a methodology to analyze transient stability for electric energy systems using artificial neural networks based on fuzzy ARTMAP architecture. This architecture seeks exploring similarity with computational concepts on fuzzy set theory and ART (Adaptive Resonance Theory) neural network. The ART architectures show plasticity and stability characteristics, which are essential qualities to provide the training and to execute the analysis. Therefore, it is used a very fast training, when compared to the conventional backpropagation algorithm formulation. Consequently, the analysis becomes more competitive, compared to the principal methods found in the specialized literature. Results considering a system composed of 45 buses, 72 transmission lines and 10 synchronous machines are presented. © 2003 IEEE.

Adaptive fuzzy knowledge-based systems for control metabots' mobility on virtual environments

The confluence of three-dimensional (3D) virtual worlds with social networks imposes on software agents, in addition to conversational functions, the same behaviours as those common to human-driven avatars. In this paper, we explore the possibilities of the use of metabots (metaverse robots) with motion capabilities in complex virtual 3D worlds and we put forward a learning model based on the techniques used in evolutionary computation for optimizing the fuzzy controllers which will subsequently be used by metabots for moving around a virtual environment.

Cross-entropy optimization for scaling factors of a fuzzy controller: a see-and-avoid approach for unmanned aerial systems

The Cross-Entropy (CE) is an efficient method for the estimation of rare-event probabilities and combinatorial optimization. This work presents a novel approach of the CE for optimization of a Soft-Computing controller. A Fuzzy controller was designed to command an unmanned aerial system (UAS) for avoiding collision task. The only sensor used to accomplish this task was a forward camera. The CE is used to reach a near-optimal controller by modifying the scaling factors of the controller inputs. The optimization was realized using the ROS-Gazebo simulation system. In order to evaluate the optimization a big amount of tests were carried out with a real quadcopter.