Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part II. Statistical and ethical considerations on familial searching.

Familial searching consists of searching for a full profile left at a crime scene in a National DNA Database (NDNAD). In this paper we are interested in the circumstance where no full match is returned, but a partial match is found between a database member's profile and the crime stain. Because close relatives share more of their DNA than unrelated persons, this partial match may indicate that the crime stain was left by a close relative of the person with whom the partial match was found. This approach has successfully solved important crimes in the UK and the USA. In a previous paper, a model, which takes into account substructure and siblings, was used to simulate a NDNAD. In this paper, we have used this model to test the usefulness of familial searching and offer guidelines for pre-assessment of the cases based on the likelihood ratio. Siblings of "persons" present in the simulated Swiss NDNAD were created. These profiles (N=10,000) were used as traces and were then compared to the whole database (N=100,000). The statistical results obtained show that the technique has great potential confirming the findings of previous studies. However, effectiveness of the technique is only one part of the story. Familial searching has juridical and ethical aspects that should not be ignored. In Switzerland for example, there are no specific guidelines to the legality or otherwise of familial searching. This article both presents statistical results, and addresses criminological and civil liberties aspects to take into account risks and benefits of familial searching.

No major impact of skin aging on the response of skin blood flow to a submaximal local thermal stimulus

La peau est sujette à un vieillissement intrinsèque (processus naturel et chronologique) et extrinsèque (processus induit par l'environnement et notamment les rayons UV). Plusieurs études ont montré que le vieillissement cutané s'accompagne d'une réduction de la densité capillaire au sein du derme et d'une dégradation de plusieurs protéines de la matrice extracellulaire. Cette atteinte morphologique est associée à une diminution de la capacité vasodilatatrice maximale de la microcirculation dermique et en particulier, de la réponse maximale du flux sanguin cutané à un échauffement local de la surface cutanée à des températures avoisinant les 43-44°C. Cette réponse, appelée hyperémie locale induite par la chaleur (local thermal hyperemia), est facilement mesurable par des investigations non invasives, telles que le laser Doppler. Nous avons entrepris cette étude afin d'investiguer les effets de l'âge sur la réactivité de la microcirculation dermique dans des zones cutanées exposées différemment aux rayons UV. Pour ce faire, nous avons étudié, chez des patients jeunes (18 à 30 ans, n=13) et des patients âgés (> 60 ans, n=13), la vasodilatation cutanée induite par réchauffement local de la peau, au niveau de 3 sites anatomiques différents (la cuisse, l'avant- bras et le front). Les mesures ont été effectuées au moyen d'un laser Doppler. Pour chaque sujet et chaque site, la température cutanée fut tout d'abord amenée à 34°C par 2 corps de chauffe (A et B), disposés de manière adjacente sur la peau. La température fut ensuite augmentée à 39°C (corps de chauffe A) et à 41°C (corps de chauffe B) pour une durée de 30 minutes, dans l'optique d'induire une vasodilatation sous- maximale. Ensuite, la température fut augmentée à 43 °C (corps de chauffe A et B) pour 15 minutes supplémentaires. Enfin, la vasodilatation maximale a été induite par un échauffement local à 44°C pour 15 minutes supplémentaires (corps de chauffe A et B). L'enregistrement séquentiel du flux sanguin cutané, effectué chaque minute par laser Doppler imager, donne des images sur lesquelles peut être calculé le flux sanguin cutané (unités de perfusion, PU). Par la suite, nous avons calculé les conductances vasculaires cutanées (CVC), en divisant le flux sanguin (PU) par la tension artérielle moyenne (mmHg), afin de permettre une normalisation entre les différents sujets. Les CVC, évaluées au temps de départ (température 34°C) et après vasodilatation maximale (température 44°C), étaient plus hautes au niveau du front qu'au niveau des 2 autres sites anatomiques. Sur les 3 sites, la CVC maximale (température 44°C) diminuait avec l'âge mais de façon moins importante au niveau du front, en comparaison avec les 2 autres sites. La réponse aux températures sous-maximales (température 39 et 41°C), exprimée en pourcentage de la CVC maximale, ne variait pas avec l'âge ni en fonction du site anatomique étudié. En conclusion, cette étude est la première à étudier simultanément l'hyperémie locale induite par la chaleur sur 3 sites ayant une exposition différente aux rayons UV. Le processus utilisé (laser Doppler imager) est également unique dans la littérature concernant les altérations de la microcirculation cutanée en lien avec l'âge. Cette étude confirme ainsi que le vieillissement cutané intrinsèque et/ou extrinsèque réduit la capacité vasodilatatrice maximale de la microcirculation dermique. Par contre, la réactivité à réchauffement local à des températures moindres ne semble pas être affectée.

Light-induced retinal degeneration correlates with changes in iron metabolism gene expression, ferritin level, and aging.

PURPOSE: Retinal degeneration is associated with iron accumulation in several rodent models in which iron-regulating proteins are impaired. Oxidative stress is catalyzed by unbound iron. METHODS: The role of the heavy chain of ferritin, which sequesters iron, in regulating the thickness of the photoreceptor nuclear layer in the 4- and 16-month-old wild-type H ferritin (HFt(+/+)) and heterozygous H ferritin (HFt(+/-)) mice was investigated, before and 12 days after exposure to 13,000-lux light for 24 hours. The regulation of gene expression of the various proteins involved in iron homeostasis, such as transferrin, transferrin receptor, hephaestin, ferroportin, iron regulatory proteins 1 and 2, hepcidin, ceruloplasmin, and heme-oxygenase 1, was analyzed by quantitative (q)RT-PCR during exposure (2, 12, and 24 hours) and 24 hours after 1 day of exposure in the 4-month-old HFt(+/+) and HFt(+/-) mouse retinas. RESULTS: Retinal degeneration in the 4-month-old HFt(+/-) mice was more extensive than in the HFt(+/+) mice. Yet, it was more extensive in both of the 16-month-old mouse groups, revealing the combined effect of age and excessive light. Injury caused by excessive light modified the temporal gene expression of iron-regulating proteins similarly in the HFt(+/-) and HFt(+/+) mice. CONCLUSIONS: Loss of one allele of H ferritin appears to increase light-induced degeneration. This study highlighted that oxidative stress related to light-induced injury is associated with major changes in gene expression of iron metabolism proteins.

Solving Large Location-Allocation problems by Clustering and Simulated Annealing

Globalization involves several facility location problems that need to be handled at large scale. Location Allocation (LA) is a combinatorial problem in which the distance among points in the data space matter. Precisely, taking advantage of the distance property of the domain we exploit the capability of clustering techniques to partition the data space in order to convert an initial large LA problem into several simpler LA problems. Particularly, our motivation problem involves a huge geographical area that can be partitioned under overall conditions. We present different types of clustering techniques and then we perform a cluster analysis over our dataset in order to partition it. After that, we solve the LA problem applying simulated annealing algorithm to the clustered and non-clustered data in order to work out how profitable is the clustering and which of the presented methods is the most suitable

Adult hippocampal neurogenesis inversely correlates with microglia in conditions of voluntary running and aging.

Adult hippocampal neurogenesis results in the formation of new neurons and is a process of brain plasticity involved in learning and memory. The proliferation of adult neural stem or progenitor cells is regulated by several extrinsic factors such as experience, disease or aging and intrinsic factors originating from the neurogenic niche. Microglia is very abundant in the dentate gyrus (DG) and increasing evidence indicates that these cells mediate the inflammation-induced reduction in neurogenesis. However, the role of microglia in neurogenesis in physiological conditions remains poorly understood. In this study, we monitored microglia and the proliferation of adult hippocampal stem/progenitor cells in physiological conditions known to increase or decrease adult neurogenesis, voluntary running and aging respectively. We found that the number of microglia in the DG was strongly inversely correlated with the number of stem/progenitor cells and cell proliferation in the granule cell layer. Accordingly, co-cultures of decreasing neural progenitor/glia ratio showed that microglia but not astroglia reduced the number of progenitor cells. Together, these results suggest that microglia inhibits the proliferation of neural stem/progenitor cells despite the absence of inflammatory stimulus.

Anti-aging : Una relectura contemporània de Dorian Gray

Partint de l'estudi del llibre El retrat de Dorian Gray d'Oscar Wilde s'analitzarà, des del punt de vista de la cultura actual, una societat que s'aferra a la joventut i utilitza tots els mètodes tecnològics per defugir de la vellesa.

Differential damage in the frontal cortex with aging, sporadic and familial Alzheimer's disease.

In order to understand relationships between executive and structural deficits in the frontal cortex of patients within normal aging or Alzheimer's disease, we studied frontal pathological changes in young and old controls compared to cases with sporadic (AD) or familial Alzheimer's disease (FAD). We performed a semi-automatic computer assisted analysis of the distribution of beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits revealed by Abeta immunostaining as well as of neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) revealed by Gallyas silver staining in Brodman areas 10 (frontal polar), 12 (ventro-infero-median) and 24 (anterior cingular), using tissue samples from 5 FAD, 6 sporadic AD and 10 control brains. We also performed densitometric measurements of glial fibrillary acidic protein, principal compound of intermediate filaments of astrocytes, and of phosphorylated neurofilament H and M epitopes in areas 10 and 24. All regions studied seem almost completely spared in normal old controls, with only the oldest ones exhibiting a weak percentage of beta-amyloid deposit and hardly any NFT. On the contrary, all AD and FAD cases were severely damaged as shown by statistically significant increased percentages of beta-amyloid deposit, as well as by a high number of NFT. FAD cases (all from the same family) had statistically more beta-amyloid and GFAP than sporadic AD cases in both areas 10 and 24 and statistically more NFT only in area 24. The correlation between the percentage of beta-amyloid and the number of NFT was significant only for area 24. Altogether, these data suggest that the frontal cortex can be spared by AD type lesions in normal aging, but is severely damaged in sporadic and still more in familial Alzheimer's disease. The frontal regions appear to be differentially vulnerable, with area 12 having the less amyloid burden, area 24 the less NFT and area 10 having both more amyloid and more NFT. This pattern of damage in frontal regions may represent a strong neuroanatomical support for the deterioration of attention and cognitive capacities as well as for the presence of emotional and behavioral troubles in AD patients.

Proteostasis of aging and stem cells

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada a la the Salk Institute, Estats Units, entre 2010 i 2012. L'estabilitat del genoma és essencial per a la supervivència de les cèl • lules mare, però, l'estabilitat del proteoma pot tenir un paper igualment important en la identitat de cèl • lules mare i la seva funció. La nostra hipòtesi és que les cèl • lules mare tenen la capacitat de proteostasis augmentada en comparació amb els seus homòlegs diferenciats i ens varem preguntar si l'activitat del proteasoma és diferent a les cèl • lules mare embrionàries humanes (hESCs). En particular, els nostres resultats mostren que les poblacions de cèl• lules mare presenten una activitat del proteasoma que es correlaciona amb majors nivells de la subunitat 19S del proteasoma PSMD11/RPN-6 i un corresponent augment del ensamblatge del 26S/30S proteasoma. L'expressió ectòpica de PSMD11 és suficient per augmentar l'activitat del proteasoma. Sorprenentment, varem trobar que la llarga vida del GLP-1 C. elegans mutant té també un augment dramàtic en l'activitat del proteasoma associat a nivells augmentats en l'expressió de RPN-6. El factor de transcripció DAF-16 és essencial per l'augment de la longevitat de GLP-1 i els cucs mutants que trobem DAF-16 necessari per a l'augment d'expressió de RPN-6 i, per tant, per l'activació de l'activitat del proteasoma en GLP-1 mutant animals. Una possibilitat interessant és que els gens que regulen la vida i la resistència a l'estrès en C. elegans poden també regular la funció hESCs de mamífer, cèl • lules que son considerades immortals. Aquests resultats ens van portar a la conclusió de que FOXO4, un factor de transcripció sensible a la insulina/IGF-1, regula l'activitat del proteasoma en hESCs, el que suggereix un paper per FOXO4 en la funció d’aquestes cèl • lules. En efecte, FOXO4 es necessari per a la diferenciació en llinatges neuronals de les hESCs. Els nostres resultats estableixen una nova regulació de laproteostasis en hESCs que uneix la longevitat i la resistència a l'estrès en invertebrats amb la funció i identitat de les hESCs.

Generation of Simulated Daily Precipitation and Air and Soil Temperatures, January 2000

This paper describes a maximum likelihood method using historical weather data to estimate a parametric model of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperatures. Parameter estimates are reported for Brookings, SD, and Boone, IA, to illustrate the procedure. The use of this parametric model to generate stochastic time series of daily weather is then summarized. A soil temperature model is described that determines daily average, maximum, and minimum soil temperatures based on air temperatures and precipitation, following a lagged process due to soil heat storage and other factors.

Epidemiology of incident heart failure in a contemporary elderly cohort: the health, aging, and body composition study.

BACKGROUND: The race- and sex-specific epidemiology of incident heart failure (HF) among a contemporary elderly cohort are not well described. METHODS: We studied 2934 participants without HF enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [2.9] years; 47.9% men; 58.6% white; and 41.4% black) and assessed the incidence of HF, population-attributable risk (PAR) of independent risk factors for HF, and outcomes of incident HF. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.1 years, 258 participants (8.8%) developed HF (13.6 cases per 1000 person-years; 95% confidence interval, 12.1-15.4). Men and black participants were more likely to develop HF. No significant sex-based differences were observed in risk factors. Coronary heart disease (PAR, 23.9% for white participants and 29.5% for black participants) and uncontrolled blood pressure (PAR, 21.3% for white participants and 30.1% for black participants) carried the highest PAR in both races. Among black participants, 6 of 8 risk factors assessed (smoking, increased heart rate, coronary heart disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, uncontrolled blood pressure, and reduced glomerular filtration rate) had more than 5% higher PAR compared with that among white participants, leading to a higher overall proportion of HF attributable to modifiable risk factors in black participants vs white participants (67.8% vs 48.9%). Participants who developed HF had higher annual mortality (18.0% vs 2.7%). No racial difference in survival after HF was noted; however, rehospitalization rates were higher among black participants (62.1 vs 30.3 hospitalizations per 100 person-years, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Incident HF is common in older persons; a large proportion of HF risk is attributed to modifiable risk factors. Racial differences in risk factors for HF and in hospitalization rates after HF need to be considered in prevention and treatment efforts.

Face the Facts: Topics to Discuss Now with Your Aging Parents, 2003

The The Eldercare Locator, a nationwide service funded by the U.S. Administration on Aging that links older consumers and their families to local aging services, produced this guide to help families “face the facts” about these important topics. The overview below addresses some key areas of concern, suggested questions to ask, and ways in which families might initiate conversations about these often difficult to discuss topics with their aging parents.