Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.

Growing up in Affiliation with a Religious Community : A Case Study of Seventh-day Adventist Youth in Finland

This study investigates how the religious community as a socialization context affects the development of young people's religious identity and values, using Finnish Seventh-day Adventism as a context for the case study. The research problem is investigated through the following questions: (1) What aspects support the intergenerational transmission of values and tradition in religious home education? (2) What is the role of social capital and the social networks of the religious community in the religious socialization process? (3) How does the religious composition of the peer group at school (e.g., a denominational school in comparison to a mainstream school) affect these young people s social relations and choices and their religious identity (as challenged versus as reinforced by values at school)? And (4) How do the young people studied negotiate their religious values and religious membership in the diverse social contexts of the society at large? The mixed method study includes both quantitative and qualitative data sets (3 surveys: n=106 young adults, n=100 teenagers, n=55 parents; 2 sets of interviews: n=10 young adults and n=10 teenagers; and fieldwork data from youth summer camps). The results indicate that, in religious home education, the relationship between parents and children, the parental example of a personally meaningful way of life, and encouraging critical thinking in order for young people to make personalized value choices were important factors in socialization. Overall, positive experiences of the religion and the religious community were crucial in providing direction for later choices of values and affiliations. Education that was experienced as either too severe or too permissive was not regarded as a positive influence for accepting similar values and lifestyle choices to those of the parents. Furthermore, the religious community had an important influence on these young people s religious socialization in terms of the commitment to denominational values and lifestyle and in providing them with religious identity and rooting them in the social network of the denomination. The network of the religious community generated important social resources, or social capital, for both the youth and their families, involving both tangible and intangible benefits, and bridging and bonding effects. However, the study also illustrates the sometimes difficult negotiations the youth face in navigating between differentiation and belonging when there is a tension between the values of a minority group and the larger society, and one wants to and does belong to both. It also demonstrates the variety within both the majority and the minority communities in society, as well as the many different ways one can find a personally meaningful way of being an Adventist. In the light of the previous literature about socialization-in-context in an increasingly pluralistic society, the findings were examined at four levels: individual, family, community and societal. These were seen as both a nested structure and as constructing a funnel in which each broader level directs the influences that reach the narrower ones. The societal setting directs the position and operation of religious communities, families and individuals, and the influences that reach the developing children and young people are in many ways directed by societal, communal and family characteristics. These levels are by nature constantly changing, as well as being constructed of different parts, like the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, each of which alters in significance: for some negotiations on values and memberships the parental influence may be greater, whereas for others the peer group influences are. Although agency does remain somewhat connected to others, the growing youth are gradually able to take more responsibility for their own choices and their agency plays a crucial role in the process of choosing values and group memberships. Keywords: youth, community, Adventism, socialization, values, identity negotiations

The expiration day effect of indexoptions and index futures on the underlying shares

This paper studies the effect of the expiration day of index options and futures on the trading volume, variance and price of the underlying shares. The data consists of all trades for the underlying shares in the FOX-index for expiration days during the period October 1995 to the mid of yer 1999. The main results seem to support the findings of Kan 2001, i.e. no manipulation on a larger scale. However, some indication of manipulation could be found if certain characteristics are favorable. These characteristics include: a) a large quantity of outstanding futures or at/in the money options contracts, b) there exists shares with high index weight but fairly low trading volume. Lastly, there is some indication that manipulation might be more popular towards the end of the examined time period.

The Day of the Week Effect and Option Pricing - A Study of the German Option Market

The use of different time units in option pricing may lead to inconsistent estimates of time decay and spurious jumps in implied volatilities. Different time units in the pricing model leads to different implied volatilities although the option price itself is the same.The chosen time unit should make it necessary to adjust the volatility parameter only when there are some fundamental reasons for it and not due to wrong specifications of the model. This paper examined the effects of option pricing using different time hypotheses and empirically investigated which time frame the option markets in Germany employ over weekdays. The paper specifically tries to get a picture of how the market prices options. The results seem to verify that the German market behaves in a fashion that deviates from the most traditional time units in option pricing, calendar and trading days. The study also showed that the implied volatility of Thursdays was somewhat higher and thus differed from the pattern of other days of the week. Using a GARCH model to further investigate the effect showed that although a traditional tests, like the analysis of variance, indicated a negative return for Thursday during the same period as the implied volatilities used, this was not supported using a GARCH model.

A discourse delivered on Thanksgiving Day, Dec. 7, 1837 : in the Unitarian Church, Keene, N.H.

The print copy of this sermon is held by Pitts Theology Library. The Pitts Theology Library's digital copy was produced as part of the ATLA/ATS Cooperative Digital Resources Initiative (CDRI), funded by the Luce Foundation. Electronic reproduction. Atlanta, Georgia : Pitts Theology Library, Emory University, 2003. (Thanksgiving Day Sermons, ATLA Cooperative Digital Resources Initiative, CDRI). Joint CDRI project by: Andover-Harvard Library (Harvard Divinity School), Pitts Theology Library (Emory University), and Princeton Theological Seminary Libraries.

Longitudinal study of changes in body mass index, anthropometric measures, dietary intake and physical activity in cohorts of school-going Irish adolescents

The prevalence of obesity worldwide has increased dramatically over the last few decades. Poor dietary habits and low levels of exercise in adolescence are often maintained into adulthood where they can impact on the incidence of obesity and chronic diseases. A 3-year longitudinal study of anthropometric, dietary and exercise parameters was carried out annually (2005 - 2007) in 3 Irish secondary schools. Anthropometric measurements were taken in each year and analysed longitudinally. Overweight and obesity were at relatively low levels in these adolescents. Height, weight, BMI, waist and hip circumferences and TST increased significantly over the 3 years. Waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) decreased significantly over time. Boys were significantly taller than girls across the 3 years. A 3-day weighed food diary was used to assess food intake by the adolescents. Analysis of dietary intake data was determined using WISP©. Mean daily energy and nutrient intakes were reported. Mean daily energy and macronutrient intakes were analysed longitudinally. The adolescents’ diet was characterised by relatively high saturated fat intakes and insufficient fruit and vegetable consumption. The dietary pattern did not change significantly over the 3 years. Boys consumed more energy than girls over the study period. A validated questionnaire was used to assess physical activity and sedentary activity levels. Boys were substantially more active and had higher energy expenditure estimates than girls throughout the study. A significant longitudinal decrease in physical activity levels among the adolescents was observed. Both genders spent more than the recommended amount of time (hrs/day) pursing sedentary activities. The dietary pattern in these Irish adolescents is relatively poor. Of additional concern is the overall longitudinal decrease in physical activity levels. Promoting consumption of a balanced diet and increased exercise levels among adolescents will help to reduce future public health care costs due to weight-related diseases.

Micronutrient intakes and the role of nutritional supplements in the diets of Irish adults and pre-school children

To investigate micronutrient intakes and the role of nutritional supplements in the diets of Irish adults aged 18-64 years and pre-school children aged 1-4 years. Analysis is based on data from the National Adult Nutrition Survey (NANS) (n=1274) and the National Pre-School Nutrition Survey (NPNS) (n=500). Food and beverage intakes and nutritional supplement use were recorded using 4-day food records. Nutrients were estimated using WISP© which is based on McCance and Widdowson’s The Composition of Foods, 6thEd and the Irish Food Composition Database. “Meats”, “milk/yoghurt”, “breads”, “fruit/fruit juices” and “breakfast cereals” made important contributions to the intakes of a number of micronutrients. Micronutrient intakes were generally adequate, with the exception of iron (in adult females and 1 year olds) and vitamin D (in all population groups). For iron, zinc, copper and vitamin B6, up to 2% of adults had intakes that exceeded the upper limit (UL). Small proportions of children had intakes of zinc (11%), copper (2%), retinol (4%) and folic acid (5%) exceeding the UL. Nutritional supplements (predominantly multivitamin and/or mineral preparations) were consumed by 28% of adults and 20% of pre-school children. Among users, supplements were effective in reducing the % with inadequate intakes for vitamins A and D (both population groups) and iron (adult females only). Supplement users had a lower prevalence of inadequate intakes for vitamin A and iron compared to non-users. In adults only, users had a lower prevalence of inadequate intakes for magnesium, calcium and zinc, and displayed better compliance with dietary recommendations and lifestyle characteristics compared with non-users. There is poor compliance among women of childbearing age for the recommendation to take a supplement containing 400µg/day of folic acid. These findings are important for the development of nutrition policies and future recommendations for adults and pre-school children in Ireland and the EU.

National food consumption surveys: micronutrient intakes and the role of fortified foods in the diets of Irish pre-school children and adults

This research investigated the micronutrient intakes of Irish pre-school children (1-4 years) and adults (18-64 years) and the role that fortified foods (FFs) play in the diets of these population groups. Dietary intake data were collected as part of the National Pre-school Nutrition Survey (NPNS) (2010-2011) and the National Adult Nutrition Survey (NANS) (2008-2010) using 4-day food and beverage records. Nutrient intakes were estimated using WISP©, which encompasses McCance and Widdowson’s The Composition of Foods and the Irish Food Composition Database. A FF is one in which one or more micronutrients are added. Key dietary sources of micronutrients in NPNS and NANS were “milk”, “meat & meat products”, “breakfast cereals”, “fruit & fruit juices” and “breads”. In general, intakes of most micronutrients were adequate with the exception of iron (1 year old children and adult women) and vitamin D (in all population groups). Small proportions of the pre-school population had intakes which exceeded the upper level (UL) (zinc: 11%, folic acid: 5%, retinol: 4%, copper: 2%). Less than 2% of adults had intakes of iron, copper, zinc and vitamin B6 which exceeded the UL. FFs were consumed by 97% of pre-school children and 82% of adults, representing 17% and 9% of mean daily energy intake respectively. Relative to energy intake, FFs contributed substantially greater proportions to intakes of key micronutrients, such as iron and vitamin D. FFs were effective in reducing the prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intakes in these population groups, particularly for iron in women and 1 year old children. FFs made a significant contribution to folate intake in women of childbearing age (72µg). FFs contributed greater proportions of carbohydrate and lower proportions of fat to the diets of consumers. Voluntary addition of nutrients to foods did not contribute appreciably to intakes exceeding the UL in these population groups.

Time use, daily activities, and health-related quality of life of school-going late adolescents in Cork city and county: A cross-sectional study

Aim: This thesis examines a question posed by founding occupational scientist Dr. Elizabeth Yerxa (1993) – “what is the relationship between human engagement in a daily round of activity (such as work, play, rest and sleep) and the quality of life people experience including their healthfulness” (p. 3). Specifically, I consider Yerxa’s question in relation to the quotidian activities and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of late adolescents (aged 15 - 19 years) in Ireland. This research enquiry was informed by an occupational perspective of health and by population health, ecological, and positive youth development perspectives. Methods: This thesis is comprised of five studies. Two scoping literature reviews informed the direction of three empirical studies. In the latter, cross-sectional time use and HRQoL data were collected from a representative sample of 731 school-going late adolescents (response rate 52%) across 28 schools across Cork city and county (response rate 76%). In addition to socio-demographic data, time use data were collected using a standard time diary instrument while a nationally and internationally validated instrument, the KIDSCREEN-52, was used to measure HRQoL. Variable-centred and person-centred analyses were used. Results: The scoping reviews identified the lack of research on well populations or an adolescent age range within occupational therapy and occupational science; limited research testing the popular assumption that time use is related to overall well-being and quality of life; and the absence of studies that examined adolescent 24-hour time use and quality of life. Established international trends were mirrored in the findings of the examination of weekday and weekend time use. Aggregate-level, variable-centred analyses yielded some significant associations between HRQoL and individual activities, independent of school year, school location, family context, social class, nationality or diary day. The person-centred analysis of overall time use identified three male profiles (productive, high leisure and all-rounder) and two female profiles (higher study/lower leisure and moderate study/higher leisure). There was tentative support for the association between higher HRQoL and more balanced time use profiles. Conclusion: The findings of this thesis highlight the gendered nature of adolescent time use and HRQoL. Participation in daily activities, singly and in combination, appears to be associated with HRQoL. However, the nature of this relationship is complex. Individually and collectively, adolescents need to be educated and supported to create health through their everyday patterns of doing.

Citizenship education in Irish secondary schools: the influence of curriculum content, school culture and stakeholder perspectives

This research interrogates the status of citizenship education in Irish secondary schools. The following questions are examined: How does school culture impact on citizenship education? What value is accorded to the subjects, Civic, Social and Political Education (CSPE) and Social, Personal and Health Education (SPHE)? To what extent are the subjects of both the cognitive and non-cognitive curricula affirmed? The importance of these factors in supporting the social, ethical, personal, political and emotional development of students is explored. The concept of citizenship is dynamic and constantly evolving in response to societal change. Society is increasingly concerned with issues such as: globalisation; cosmopolitanism; the threat of global risk; environment sustainability; socio-economic inequality; and recognition/misrecognition of new identities and group rights. The pedagogical philosophy of Paulo Freire which seeks to educate for the conscientisation and humanisation of the student is central to this research. Using a mixed methods approach, data on the insights of students, parents, teachers and school Principals was collected. In relation to Irish secondary school education, the study reached three main conclusions. (1) The educational stakeholders rate the subjects of the non-cognitive curriculum poorly. (2) The subjects Civic, Social and Political education (CSPE), and Social, Personal and Health Education (SPHE) command a low status in the secondary school setting. (3) The day-to-day school climate is influenced by an educational philosophy that is instrumentalist in character. Elements of school culture such as: the ethic of care; the informal curriculum; education for life after school; and affirmation of teachers, are not sufficiently prioritised in supporting education for citizenship. The research concludes that the approach to education for citizenship needs to be more robust within the overall curriculum, and culture and ethos of the Irish education system.

Out of the Shadows: A one day investigation of the politics of architecture explored through the lens of post-conflict, Belfast

This booklet covers the itinerary and some of the findings of a day-long visit to Belfast on the 7th November 2014 by Peter Oborn; Vice President International of the Royal Institute of British Architects. His visit was in response to a motion submitted to the RIBA council (19.05.2014) calling for the suspension of the Israeli Association of United Architects from the International Union of Architects. Despite members of council speaking against the motion it was carried; 23 members voting for, 16 against, and 10 abstentions. Subsequently the RIBA came under considerable pressure to consider its position in such critical contexts. This visit to Belfast was part of a wider fact-finding mission and evidence taking. At its heart was the question: 'Is it appropriate for the institute (RIBA) to engage with communities facing civil conflict and/or natural disaster and, if so, how it can do so most effectively.' The visit was facilitated by Ruth Morrow, Professor of Architecture, School of Planning, Architecture & Civil Engineering, Queen's University Belfast, and Martin Hare, Royal Society of Ulster Architects (RSUA) president.

Research into the Impact of School Leadership on Pupil Outcomes: Policy and Research Contexts

This paper extends the introduction to the authors’ study of successful school leadership and how it influences pupil outcomes begun in the Editorial introduction. Critical to an appreciation especially of the external validity of their results is an understanding of the policy context in which the English leaders in their study found themselves; this is a policy context dominated by concerns for external accountability and increases in the academic performance of pupils. In addition to describing this context, the paper summarises the conceptual and methodological framework that guided the early stage of their research and outlines their mixed-methods research design.

Testing the weak-form market efficiency and the day of the week effects of some African countries

The aims of this work are twofold. On the one hand, it aims to find evidence supporting the presence of the weak form efficiency of several emerging African stock markets by using both parametric as well as non parametric tests. The results indicate that none of the markets are characterised by random walks with the exception of the South African stock market. On the other hand, this study aims to detect the presence of the day of the week effects of these African stock markets. Results show the existence of day of the week effects, that is the typical negative Monday and Friday positive effects in several stock markets.