Predicting single-vehicle fatal crashes for two-lane rural highways in Southeastern United States

The rural two-lane highway in the southeastern United States is frequently associated with a disproportionate number of serious and fatal crashes and as such remains a focus of considerable safety research. The Georgia Department of Transportation spearheaded a regional fatal crash analysis to identify various safety performances of two-lane rural highways and to offer guidance for identifying suitable countermeasures with which to mitigate fatal crashes. The fatal crash data used in this study were compiled from Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. The database, developed for an earlier study, included 557 randomly selected fatal crashes from 1997 or 1998 or both (this varied by state). Each participating state identified the candidate crashes and performed physical or video site visits to construct crash databases with enhance site-specific information. Motivated by the hypothesis that single- and multiple-vehicle crashes arise from fundamentally different circumstances, the research team applied binary logit models to predict the probability that a fatal crash is a single-vehicle run-off-road fatal crash given roadway design characteristics, roadside environment features, and traffic conditions proximal to the crash site. A wide variety of factors appears to influence or be associated with single-vehicle fatal crashes. In a model transferability assessment, the authors determined that lane width, horizontal curvature, and ambient lighting are the only three significant variables that are consistent for single-vehicle run-off-road crashes for all study locations.

A probability-based approach for assessing the relationship between crash accidents and pavement properties

Skid resistance is a condition parameter characterising the contribution that a road makes to the friction between a road surface and a vehicle tyre. Studies of traffic crash histories around the world have consistently found that a disproportionate number of crashes occur where the road surface has a low level of surface friction and/or surface texture, particularly when the road surface is wet. Various research results have been published over many years and have tried to quantify the influence of skid resistance on accident occurrence and to characterise a correlation between skid resistance and accident frequency. Most of the research studies used simple statistical correlation methods in analysing skid resistance and crash data.----- ------ Preliminary findings of a systematic and extensive literature search conclude that there is rarely a single causation factor in a crash. Findings from research projects do affirm various levels of correlation between skid resistance and accident occurrence. Studies indicate that the level of skid resistance at critical places such as intersections, curves, roundabouts, ramps and approaches to pedestrian crossings needs to be well maintained.----- ----- Management of risk is an integral aspect of the Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR) strategy for managing its infrastructure assets. The risk-based approach has been used in many areas of infrastructure engineering. However, very limited information is reported on using risk-based approach to mitigate crash rates related to road surface. Low skid resistance and surface texture may increase the risk of traffic crashes.----- ----- The objectives of this paper are to explore current issues of skid resistance in relation to crashes, to provide a framework of probability-based approach to be adopted by QDMR in assessing the relationship between crash accidents and pavement properties, and to explain why the probability-based approach is a suitable tool for QDMR in order to reduce accident rates due to skid resistance.

The CARRS-Q advanced driving simulator

Overview of the CARRS-Q Simulators • CARRS-Q has two simulators: The Advanced Driving Simulator and a simpler “Desktop” simulator • Both use the same research grade simulation software SCANeR, produced by French company OKTAL • The Advanced Driving Simulator can integrate three aspects of simulation: – driving simulator – traffic simulator (links to AIMSUN) – control simulator

Improving self-report measures of speeding

There is continuing debate regarding the psychometric properties of self-report measures of behaviour, particularly in road safety research. Practical considerations often preclude the use of objective assessments, leading to reliance on self-report measures. Acknowledging that such measures are likely to remain commonly used, this pilot project sought not to argue whether self-report measures should continue to be used, but to explore factors associated with how individuals respond to self-reported speeding measures. This paper reports preliminary findings from a qualitative study (focus groups and in-depth interviews) conducted with licensed drivers to explore the operational utility of self-reported speeding behaviour measures. Drawing upon concepts from the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB; Ajzen, 1991) and Agency Theory (Bandura, 2001), we identified four dimensions of self-reported speeding: including timeframe, speed zone, degree over the speed limit and, overall frequency of the behaviour, and examined participants’ perceptions of the operational utility of these factors. Issues related to comprehensibility, perceived accuracy, response format and layout were also explored. Results indicated that: heterogeneity in the timeframe of behavioural reflections suggests a need to provide a set timeframe for participants to consider when thinking about their previous speeding behaviour; response categories and formats should be carefully considered to ensure the most accurate representations of the frequency and degree of speeding are captured; the need to clearly articulate “low-level” speeding on self-report measures; and, that self-reports of speeding behaviour are typically context-irrelevant unless stipulated in the question. Limitations and directions for further research are discussed.

The relative importance of factors influencing bicycling crash risk

Government promotion of active transport has renewed interest in cycling safety. Research has shown that bicyclists are up to 20 times more likely to be involved in serious injury crashes than drivers. On-road cycling injuries are under-reported in police data, and many non-serious injuries are not recorded in any official database. This study aims to explore the relationships between rider characteristics and environmental factors that influence per kilometre risk of bicycle-related crash and non-crash injuries.

Commentaries and Responses to "The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as a predictor of accidents: A meta-analysis" [Commentaries lead by Anders af Wahlberg; Responses lead by J.C.F. de Winter]

The following discussion is in response to a 2010 article published in the Journal of Safety Research by J.C.F. de Winter and D. Dodou entitled “The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as a predictor of accidents: A meta-analysis” (Volume 41, Number 6, pp. 463-470, available on sciencedirect.com). The editors are pleased to provide a forum for this exchange and welcome further comments.

Adults cycling on the footpath : what do the data show?

Recent increases in cycling have led to many media articles highlighting concerns about interactions between cyclists and pedestrians on footpaths and off-road paths. Under the Australian Road Rules, adults are not allowed to ride on footpaths unless accompanying a child 12 years of age or younger. However, this rule does not apply in Queensland. This paper reviews international studies that examine the safety of footpath cycling for both cyclists and pedestrians, and relevant Australian crash and injury data. The results of a survey of more than 2,500 Queensland adult cyclists are presented in terms of the frequency of footpath cycling, the characteristics of those cyclists and the characteristics of self-reported footpath crashes. A third of the respondents reported riding on the footpath and, of those, about two-thirds did so reluctantly. Riding on the footpath was more common for utilitarian trips and for new riders, although the average distance ridden on footpaths was greater for experienced riders. About 5% of distance ridden and a similar percentage of self-reported crashes occurred on footpaths. These data are discussed in terms of the Safe Systems principle of separating road users with vastly different levels of kinetic energy. The paper concludes that footpaths are important facilities for both inexperienced and experienced riders and for utilitarian riding, especially in locations riders consider do not provide a safe system for cycling.

Evaluation of the Type I child car restraints fitting service in WA

Child passenger injury remains a major road safety issue despite advances in biomechanical understanding and child restraint design. In Australia, one intervention with parents to encourage universal and consistent use of the most appropriate restraint as well as draw their attention to critical aspects of installation is the RoadWise Type 1 Child Car Restraints Fitting Service, WA. A mixed methods evaluation of this service was conducted in early 2010. Evaluation results suggest that it has been effective in ensuring good quality training of child restraint fitters. In addition, stakeholder and user satisfaction with the Service is high, with participants agreeing that the Service is valuable to the community, and fitters regarding the training course, materials and post-training support as effective. However, a continuing issue for interventions of this type is whether the parents who need them perceive this need. Evidence from the evaluation suggests that only about 25% of parents who could benefit from the Service actually use it. This may be partly due to parental perceptions that such services are not necessary or relevant to them, or to overconfidence about the ease of installing restraints correctly. Thus there is scope for improving awareness of the Service amongst groups most likely to benefit from it (e.g. new parents) and for alerting parents to the importance of correct installation and getting their self-installed restraints checked. Efforts to inform and influence parents should begin when their children are very young, preferably at or prior to birth and/or before the parent installs the first restraint.

Bicycling injuries and perceived risk

Introduction Government promotion of active transport has renewed interest in cycling safety. Research has shown that bicyclists are up to 20 times more likely to be involved in serious injury crashes than drivers. On-road cycling injuries are under-reported in police data, and many non-serious injuries are not recorded in any official database. This study aims to explore the relationships between rider characteristics and environmental factors that influence per kilometre risk of bicycle-related crash and non-crash injuries. Method A survey of 2,532 Queensland adults who had ridden at least once in the past year was conducted from October 2009 to March 2010, with most responses received online (99.3%). Riders were asked where they rode (footpath, bike path, road etc.), average travel speed, purpose of riding, type of bike ridden, how far and how often they rode in. Measures of rider experience, skill, safety perceptions, safety behaviours, crash involvement and demographic characteristics were also collected. RESULTS Increasing exposure and having more expensive bicycles were shown to reduce the risk per km of crash and non-crash injury rates, and to reduce perceived risk. Never wearing bright coloured clothing related to increased crash risk, use of fluorescent and reflective clothing had no effect on crash risk. Riding in low-speed environments, never using a front light, and riding in low-speed environments were associated with reduced non-crash injury risk. Perceived risk was influenced by exposure, use of conspicuity aids and helmets, riding for utilitarian reasons, and group-riding behaviours. DISCUSSION Perceived risk does not appear to influence injury rates and injury rates do not appear to influence the perceived risk of cycling. Riders who perceive cycling to be risky tend not to be commuters, do not engage in group riding and always wear helmets. Not all measures of conspicuity were associated with risk, with rear lights found to have no relationship to injury. The risks of experiencing a crash or non-crash injury were similar, therefore injury prevention strategies should expand their scope to include other factors such as the importance of bicycle set-up.

Priorities for developing and evaluating data quality characteristics of road crash data in Australia

The National Road Safety Strategy 2011-2020 outlines plans to reduce the burden of road trauma via improvements and interventions relating to safe roads, safe speeds, safe vehicles, and safe people. It also highlights that a key aspect in achieving these goals is the availability of comprehensive data on the issue. The use of data is essential so that more in-depth epidemiologic studies of risk can be conducted as well as to allow effective evaluation of road safety interventions and programs. Before utilising data to evaluate the efficacy of prevention programs it is important for a systematic evaluation of the quality of underlying data sources to be undertaken to ensure any trends which are identified reflect true estimates rather than spurious data effects. However, there has been little scientific work specifically focused on establishing core data quality characteristics pertinent to the road safety field and limited work undertaken to develop methods for evaluating data sources according to these core characteristics. There are a variety of data sources in which traffic-related incidents and resulting injuries are recorded, which are collected for a variety of defined purposes. These include police reports, transport safety databases, emergency department data, hospital morbidity data and mortality data to name a few. However, as these data are collected for specific purposes, each of these data sources suffers from some limitations when seeking to gain a complete picture of the problem. Limitations of current data sources include: delays in data being available, lack of accurate and/or specific location information, and an underreporting of crashes involving particular road user groups such as cyclists. This paper proposes core data quality characteristics that could be used to systematically assess road crash data sources to provide a standardised approach for evaluating data quality in the road safety field. The potential for data linkage to qualitatively and quantitatively improve the quality and comprehensiveness of road crash data is also discussed.

A roadside survey of unlicensed driving in Queensland

Unlicensed driving remains a serious problem in many jurisdictions, and while it does not play a direct causative role in road crashes, it undermines driver licensing systems and is linked to other high risk driving behaviours. Roadside licence check surveys represent the most direct means of estimating the prevalence of unlicensed driving. The current study involved the Queensland Police Service (QPS) checking the licences of 3,112 drivers intercepted at random breath testing operations across Queensland between February and April 2010. Data was matched with official licensing records from Transport and Main Roads (TMR) via the drivers’ licence number. In total, 2,914 (93.6%) records were matched, with the majority of the 198 unmatched cases representing international or interstate licence holders (n = 156), leaving 42 unknown cases. Among the drivers intercepted at the roadside, 20 (0.6%) were identified as being unlicensed at the time, while a further 11 (0.4%) were driving unaccompanied on a Learner Licence. However, the examination of TMR licensing records revealed that an additional 9 individuals (0.3%) had a current licence sanction but were not identified as unlicensed by QPS. Thus, in total 29 of the drivers were unlicensed at the time, representing 0.9% of all the drivers intercepted and 1% of those for whom their licence records could be checked. This is considerably lower than the involvement of unlicensed drivers in fatal and serious injury crashes in Queensland, which is consistent with other research confirming the increased crash risk of the group. However, the number of unmatched records suggest that it is possible the on-road survey may have under-estimated the prevalence of unlicensed driving, so further development of the survey method is recommended.

Hierarchical modeling of perceived collision risks in port fairways

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. Despite the extent of recent works done on port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in port fairways. This paper uses a hierarchical ordered probit model to investigate associations between perceived risks and the geometric and traffic characteristics of fairways and the pilot attributes. Perceived risk data, collected through a risk perception survey conducted among the Singapore port pilots, are used to calibrate the model. Intra-class correlation coefficient justifies use of the hierarchical model in comparison with an ordinary model. Results show higher perceived risks in fairways attached to anchorages, and in those featuring sharper bends and higher traffic operating speeds. Lesser risks are perceived in fairways attached to shoreline and confined waters, and in those with one-way traffic, traffic separation scheme, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Risk is also found to be perceived higher in night.

On the significance of omitted variables in intersection crash modeling

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causes and contributing factors—rest upon the pursuit of numerous lines of research inquiry. The research community has focused considerable attention on analytical methods development (negative binomial models, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might logically seek to know which lines of inquiry might provide the most significant improvements in understanding crash causation and/or prediction. It is the contention of this paper that the exclusion of important variables (causal or surrogate measures of causal variables) cause omitted variable bias in model estimation and is an important and neglected line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant opportunities to better understand contributing factors and/or causes of crashes. This study examines the role of important variables (other than Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)) that are generally omitted from intersection crash prediction models. In addition to the geometric and traffic regulatory information of intersection, the proposed model includes many spatial factors such as local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools—representing a mix of potential environmental and human factors that are theoretically important, but rarely used. Results suggest that these variables in addition to AADT have significant explanatory power, and their exclusion leads to omitted variable bias. Provided is evidence that variable exclusion overstates the effect of minor road AADT by as much as 40% and major road AADT by 14%.