A general method to determine sampling windows for nonlinear mixed effects models with an application to population pharmacokinetic studies

Optimal design methods have been proposed to determine the best sampling times when sparse blood sampling is required in clinical pharmacokinetic studies. However, the optimal blood sampling time points may not be feasible in clinical practice. Sampling windows, a time interval for blood sample collection, have been proposed to provide flexibility in blood sampling times while preserving efficient parameter estimation. Because of the complexity of the population pharmacokinetic models, which are generally nonlinear mixed effects models, there is no analytical solution available to determine sampling windows. We propose a method for determination of sampling windows based on MCMC sampling techniques. The proposed method attains a stationary distribution rapidly and provides time-sensitive windows around the optimal design points. The proposed method is applicable to determine sampling windows for any nonlinear mixed effects model although our work focuses on an application to population pharmacokinetic models.

Population structure of Bactrocera dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis (Diptera: Tephritidae) in southeast Asia: evidence for a single species hypothesis using mitochondrial DNA and wingshape data

Background Bactrocera dorsalis s.s. is a pestiferous tephritid fruit fly distributed from Pakistan to the Pacific, with the Thai/Malay peninsula its southern limit. Sister pest taxa, B. papayae and B. philippinensis, occur in the southeast Asian archipelago and the Philippines, respectively. The relationship among these species is unclear due to their high molecular and morphological similarity. This study analysed population structure of these three species within a southeast Asian biogeographical context to assess potential dispersal patterns and the validity of their current taxonomic status. Results Geometric morphometric results generated from 15 landmarks for wings of 169 flies revealed significant differences in wing shape between almost all sites following canonical variate analysis. For the combined data set there was a greater isolation-by-distance (IBD) effect under a ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario which used geographical distances within a biogeographical ‘Sundaland context’ (r2 = 0.772, P < 0.0001) as compared to a ‘Euclidean’ scenario for which direct geographic distances between sample sites was used (r2 = 0.217, P < 0.01). COI sequence data were obtained for 156 individuals and yielded 83 unique haplotypes with no correlation to current taxonomic designations via a minimum spanning network. BEAST analysis provided a root age and location of 540kya in northern Thailand, with migration of B. dorsalis s.l. into Malaysia 470kya and Sumatra 270kya. Two migration events into the Philippines are inferred. Sequence data revealed a weak but significant IBD effect under the ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario (r2 = 0.110, P < 0.05), with no historical migration evident between Taiwan and the Philippines. Results are consistent with those expected at the intra-specific level. Conclusions Bactrocera dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis likely represent one species structured around the South China Sea, having migrated from northern Thailand into the southeast Asian archipelago and across into the Philippines. No migration is apparent between the Philippines and Taiwan. This information has implications for quarantine, trade and pest management.

Anthropogenic landscape change promotes asymmetric dispersal and limits regional patch occupancy in a spatially structured bird population

1. Local extinctions in habitat patches and asymmetric dispersal between patches are key processes structuring animal populations in heterogeneous environments. Effective landscape conservation requires an understanding of how habitat loss and fragmentation influence demographic processes within populations and movement between populations. 2. We used patch occupancy surveys and molecular data for a rainforest bird, the logrunner (Orthonyx temminckii), to determine (i) the effects of landscape change and patch structure on local extinction; (ii) the asymmetry of emigration and immigration rates; (iii) the relative influence of local and between-population landscapes on asymmetric emigration and immigration; and (iv) the relative contributions of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation to asymmetric emigration and immigration. 3. Whether or not a patch was occupied by logrunners was primarily determined by the isolation of that patch. After controlling for patch isolation, patch occupancy declined in landscapes experiencing high levels of rainforest loss over the last 100 years. Habitat loss and fragmentation over the last century was more important than the current pattern of patch isolation alone, which suggested that immigration from neighbouring patches was unable to prevent local extinction in highly modified landscapes. 4. We discovered that dispersal between logrunner populations is highly asymmetric. Emigration rates were 39% lower when local landscapes were fragmented, but emigration was not limited by the structure of the between-population landscapes. In contrast, immigration was 37% greater when local landscapes were fragmented and was lower when the between-population landscapes were fragmented. Rainforest fragmentation influenced asymmetric dispersal to a greater extent than did rainforest loss, and a 60% reduction in mean patch area was capable of switching a population from being a net exporter to a net importer of dispersing logrunners. 5. The synergistic effects of landscape change on species occurrence and asymmetric dispersal have important implications for conservation. Conservation measures that maintain large patch sizes in the landscape may promote asymmetric dispersal from intact to fragmented landscapes and allow rainforest bird populations to persist in fragmented and degraded landscapes. These sink populations could form the kernel of source populations given sufficient habitat restoration. However, the success of this rescue effect will depend on the quality of the between-population landscapes.

Seasonal variation in cardiovascular disease risk factors in a subarctic population : the Tromso Study 1979-2008

Background Seasonal changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may be due to exposure to seasonal environmental variables like temperature and acute infections or seasonal behavioural patterns in physical activity and diet. Investigating the seasonal pattern of risk factors should help determine the causes of the seasonal pattern in CVD. Few studies have investigated the seasonal variation in risk factors using repeated measurements from the same individual, which is important as individual and population seasonal patterns may differ. Methods The authors investigated the seasonal pattern in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, body weight, total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, C reactive protein and fibrinogen. Measurements came from 38 037 participants in the population-based cohort, the Tromsø Study, examined up to eight times from 1979 to 2008. Individual and population seasonal patterns were estimated using a cosinor in a mixed model. Results All risk factors had a highly statistically significant seasonal pattern with a peak time in winter, except for triglycerides (peak in autumn), C reactive protein and fibrinogen (peak in spring). The sizes of the seasonal variations were clinically modest. Conclusions Although the authors found highly statistically significant individual seasonal patterns for all risk factors, the sizes of the changes were modest, probably because this subarctic population is well adapted to a harsh climate. Better protection against seasonal risk factors like cold weather could help reduce the winter excess in CVD observed in milder climates.

Clines in cuticular hydrocarbons in two Drosophila species with independent population histories

We took a comparative approach utilizing clines to investigate the extent to which natural selection may have shaped population divergence in cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) that are also under sexual selection in Drosophila. We detected the presence of CHC clines along a latitudinal gradient on the east coast of Australia in two fly species with independent phylogenetic and population histories, suggesting adaptation to shared abiotic factors. For both species, significant associations were detected between clinal variation in CHCs and temperature variation along the gradient, suggesting temperature maxima as a candidate abiotic factor shaping CHC variation among populations. However, rainfall and humidity correlated with CHC variation to differing extents in the two species, suggesting that response to these abiotic factors may vary in a species-specific manner. Our results suggest that natural selection, in addition to sexual selection, plays a significant role in structuring among-population variation in sexually selected traits in Drosophila.

Infertility in Australia circa 1980 : an historical population perspective on the uptake of fertility treatment by Australian women born in 1946-51

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of lifetime infertility in Australian women born in 1946-51 and examine their uptake of treatment. Methods: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health born in 1946-51 (n=13,715) completed up to four mailed surveys from 1996 to 2004. The odds of infertility were estimated using logistic regression with adjustment for socio-demographic and reproductive factors. Results: Among participants, 92.1% had been pregnant. For women who had been pregnant (n=12738): 56.5% had at least one birth but no pregnancy loss (miscarriage and/or termination); 39.9% experienced both birth and loss; and 3.6% had a loss only. The lifetime prevalence of infertility was 11.0%. Among women who reported infertility (n=1511), 41.7% used treatment. Women had higher odds of infertility when they had reproductive histories of losses only (OR range 9.0-43.5) or had never been pregnant (OR=15.7, 95%CI 11.8-20.8); and higher odds for treatment: losses only (OR range 2.5-9.8); or never pregnant (1.96, 1.28-3.00). Women who delayed their first birth until aged 30+ years had higher odds of treatment (OR range 3.2-4.3). Conclusions: About one in ten women experienced infertility and almost half used some form of treatment, especially those attempting pregnancy after 1980. Older first time mothers had an increased uptake of treatment as assisted reproductive technologies (ART) developed. Implications: This study provided evidence of the early uptake of treatment prior to 1979 when the national register of invasive ART was developed and later uptake prior to 1998 when data on non-invasive ART were first collected.

Infertility, medical advice and treatment with fertility hormones and/or in vitro fertilisation: a population perspective from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

OBJECTIVE: To identify the factors associated with infertility, seeking advice and treatment with fertility hormones and/or in vitro fertilisation (IVF) among a general population of women. METHODS: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health aged 28-33 years in 2006 had completed up to four mailed surveys over 10 years (n=9,145). Parsimonious multivariate logistic regression was used to identify the socio-demographic, biological (including reproductive histories), and behavioural factors associated with infertility, advice and hormonal/IVF treatment. RESULTS: For women who had tried to conceive or had been pregnant (n=5,936), 17% reported infertility. Among women with infertility (n=1031), 72% (n=728) sought advice but only 50% (n=356) used hormonal/IVF treatment. Women had higher odds of infertility when: they had never been pregnant (OR=7.2, 95% CI 5.6-9.1) or had a history of miscarriage (OR range=1.5-4.0) than those who had given birth (and never had a miscarriage or termination). CONCLUSION: Only one-third of women with infertility used hormonal and/or IVF treatment. Women with PCOS or endometriosis were the most proactive in having sought advice and used hormonal/IVF treatment. IMPLICATIONS: Raised awareness of age-related declining fertility is important for partnered women aged approximately 30 years to encourage pregnancy during their prime reproductive years and reduce the risk of infertility.

Infertility resolved with or without fertility treatment in Australian women aged 31-36 years: A prospective, population-based study [abstract]

Birth outcomes during a three year period were compared for women with a history of infertility who did or did not use fertility treatment with hormones and/or in vitro fertilisation. Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health born in 1973-78 were randomly selected from the universal public health insurance database and completed up to five mailed surveys (1996-2009). Participants reported on their infertility and use of treatment at age 28-33 years (survey 4 (S4) in 2006) and 31-36 years (survey 5 (S5) in 2009). The odds of resolved infertility at S5 were estimated using logistic regression with adjustment for age, area of residence, private health insurance and male infertility. Among 7280 women who responded to both S4 and S5, 18.6% (n=1378) reported infertility. More than half (n=804, 56.8%) of these women did not use treatment and 43.9% (n=347) gave birth between S4 and S5. Compared to infertile women who did not use treatment, women who used treatment were more likely at S5 to have recently given birth (odds ratio (OR) = 1.59, 95% CI 1.26-2.00) or be pregnant (OR = 1.77, 1.27-2.46). Further, women who used treatment were more likely to have twins (3.37, 1.18-9.62), premature births (1.52, 0.95-2.43), or low birthweight babies (1.83, 0.70-2.53) compared to women who gave birth without using treatment. Many women aged up to 36 years with a history of infertility can conceive naturally over a three year period without the use of treatment.Women who have never had a prior birth may need to use treatment to resolve their infertility but they are at higher risk of poorer perinatal outcomes, such as premature or low birthweight babies.

Birth outcomes after spontaneous or assisted conception among infertile Australian women aged 28 to 36 years: A prospective, population-based study

Objective To examine the extent to which the odds of birth, pregnancy, or adverse birth outcomes are higher among women aged 28 to 36 years who use fertility treatment compared with untreated women. Design Prospective, population-based. Setting Not applicable. Patient(s) Participants in the ALSWH born in 1973 to 1978 who reported on their infertility and use of in vitro fertilization (IVF) or ovulation induction (OI). Intervention(s) Postal survey questionnaires administered as part of ALSWH. Main Outcome Measure(s) Among women treated with IVF or OI and untreated women, the odds of birth outcomes estimated by use of adjusted logistic regression modeling. Result(s) Among 7,280 women, 18.6% (n = 1,376) reported infertility. Half (53.0%) of the treated women gave birth compared with 43.8% of untreated women. Women with prior parity were less likely to use IVF compared with nulliparous women. Women using IVF or OI, respectively, were more likely to have given birth after treatment or be pregnant compared with untreated women. Women using IVF or OI were as likely to have ectopic pregnancies, stillbirths, or premature or low birthweight babies as untreated women. Conclusion(s) More than 40% of women aged 28–36 years reporting a history of infertility can achieve births without using treatment, indicating they are subfertile rather than infertile.

Lost and found : improving ascertainment of refugee-background Australians in population datasets

Humanitarian entrants remain invisible in existing populations datasets, and this has significant implications for health care and health policy. We suggest adding 'year of arrival' to population datasets; enabling the combination of 'country of birth' and 'year of arrival' to be used as a proxy for refugee status.

More men than women make mucosal IgA antibodies to human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16) and HPV-18: A study of oral HPV and oral HPV antibodies in a normal healthy population

Background: We have previously shown the high prevalence of oral anti-human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16) antibodies in women with HPV-associated cervical neoplasia. It was postulated that the HPV antibodies were initiated after HPV antigenic stimulation at the cervix via the common mucosal immune system. The present study aimed to further evaluate the effectiveness of oral fluid testing for detecting the mucosal humoral response to HPV infection and to advance our limited understanding of the immune response to HPV. Methods: The prevalence of oral HPV infection and oral antibodies to HPV types 16, 18 and 11 was determined in a normal, healthy population of children, adolescents and adults, both male and female, attending a dental clinic. HPV types in buccal cells were determined by DNA sequencing. Oral fluid was collected from the gingival crevice of the mouth by the OraSure method. HPV-16, HPV-18 and HPV-11 antibodies in oral fluid were detected by virus-like particle-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. As a reference group 44 women with cervical neoplasia were included in the study. Results: Oral HPV infection was h ighest in children (9/114, 7.9%), followed by adolescents (4/78, 5.1%), and lowest in normal adults (4/116, 3.5%). The predominant HPV type found was HPV-13 (7/22, 31.8%) followed by HPV-32 (5/22, 22.7%). The prevalence of oral antibodies to HPV-16, HPV-18 and HPV-11 was low in children and increased substantially in adolescents and normal adults. Oral HPV-16 IgA was significantly more prevalent in women with cervical neoplasia (30/44, 68.2%) than the women from the dental clinic (18/69, 26.1% P = 0.0001). Significantly more adult men than women displayed oral HPV-16 IgA (30/47 compared with 18/69, OR 5.0, 95% CI 2.09-12.1, P < 0.001) and HPV-18 IgA (17/47 compared with 13/69, OR 2.4, 95% CI 0.97-6.2, P = 0.04). Conclusion: The increased prevalence of oral HPV antibodies in adolescent individuals compared with children was attributed to the onset of sexual activity. The increased prevalence of oral anti-HPV IgA in men compared with women was noteworthy considering reportedly fewer men than women make serum antibodies, and warrants further investigation. © 2006 Marais et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Associations exist between food insecurity, poor diet, chronic illness and obesity among an Australian population

Food insecurity is the limited availability of, or access to, sufficient amounts of nutritious, culturally-appropriate and safe foods, or the inability to access such foods by socially-acceptable means. Evidence from the United States and Canada suggests that food insecurity may be associated with poor dietary intakes, obesity, and chronic disease including depression and diabetes, thus constituting a significant public health issue. Currently, no existing studies have investigated the dietary and health factors associated with food insecurity among the general Australian population. The current study investigated the potential associations between food insecurity, diet and health among Australian adults (18 years and over) participating in the cross-sectional National Health Survey (n = 19,500). Data were analysed by logistic regression adjusting for sociodemographic covariates. Those from food insecure households were 50% less likely to consume the recommended number of servings of fruit, 60% more likely to report poor health and experienced a 6-fold increase in the risk of severe depressive disorders, compared to their food secure counterparts. Furthermore, food insecurity was associated with a 50% increase in the risk of being diagnosed with ‘high sugar levels’. Finally, women from food insecure households were 30% more likely to be obese compared to their food secure counterparts. These findings suggest that food insecurity may play an important role in preventing adherence with national dietary recommendations, and may increase the risk of obesity and chronic illness. This has important implications for both clinical practice, and the development of interventions and policy to address food insecurity.

Meeting the Food Needs of Queensland’s Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) Aged Population: A Review of the Literature

This report summarises research undertaken by Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, in partnership with Diversicare, on ‘Meeting the cultural food needs of Queensland’s Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) aged’. An earlier literature review[6] summarised the state of the evidence in relation to Australia’s CALD aged population and their less than optimal usage of Home and Community Care services (HACC), in particular, food services. This report builds on the information presented in the literature review aiming to explore the current provision of food services to CALD clients and the barriers and enablers to this service provision in Queensland.