847 resultados para Risk and loss functions


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The chicken represents the best-characterized animal model for B cell development in the so-called gut-associated lymphoid tissue (GALT) and the molecular processes leading to B cell receptor diversification in this species are well investigated. However, the mechanisms regulating B cell development and homeostasis in GALT species are largely unknown. Here we investigate the role played by the avian homologue of B cell-activating factor of the tumor necrosis factor family (BAFF). Flow cytometric analysis showed that the receptor for chicken B cell-activating factor of the tumor necrosis factor family (chBAFF) is expressed by mature and immature B cells. Unlike murine and human BAFF, chBAFF is primarily produced by B cells both in peripheral lymphoid organs and in the bursa of Fabricius, the chicken's unique primary lymphoid organ. In vitro and in vivo studies revealed that chBAFF is required for mature B cell survival. In addition, in vivo neutralization with a decoy receptor led to a reduction of the size and number of B cell follicles in the bursa, demonstrating that, in contrast to humans and mice, in chickens BAFF is also required for the development of immature B cells. Collectively, we show that chBAFF has phylogenetically conserved functions in mature B cell homeostasis but displays unique and thus far unknown properties in the regulation of B cell development in birds.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the public health consequences of the rise in multiple births with respect to congenital anomalies. DESIGN: Descriptive epidemiological analysis of data from population-based congenital anomaly registries. SETTING: Fourteen European countries. POPULATION: A total of 5.4 million births 1984-2007, of which 3% were multiple births. METHODS: Cases of congenital anomaly included live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks of gestation and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence rates per 10,000 births and relative risk of congenital anomaly in multiple versus singleton births (1984-2007); proportion prenatally diagnosed, proportion by pregnancy outcome (2000-07). Proportion of pairs where both co-twins were cases. RESULTS: Prevalence of congenital anomalies from multiple births increased from 5.9 (1984-87) to 10.7 per 10,000 births (2004-07). Relative risk of nonchromosomal anomaly in multiple births was 1.35 (95% CI 1.31-1.39), increasing over time, and of chromosomal anomalies was 0.72 (95% CI 0.65-0.80), decreasing over time. In 11.4% of affected twin pairs both babies had congenital anomalies (2000-07). The prenatal diagnosis rate was similar for multiple and singleton pregnancies. Cases from multiple pregnancies were less likely to be terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly, odds ratio 0.41 (95% CI 0.35-0.48) and more likely to be stillbirths and neonatal deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in babies who are both from a multiple pregnancy and affected by a congenital anomaly has implications for prenatal and postnatal service provision. The contribution of assisted reproductive technologies to the increase in risk needs further research. The deficit of chromosomal anomalies among multiple births has relevance for prenatal risk counselling.

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Proteases control many vital aspects of humoral and cellular immune responses, including the maturation of cytokines and the killing of target cells. Recently, it has become evident that triggering of the T-cell receptor controls T-cell proliferation through proteases such as mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue 1 (MALT1) and Caspase-8 that act both as adapters and enzymes. Here, we discuss the role of these and other proteases that are relevant to the control of the T-cell response and represent interesting targets of therapeutic immunomodulation.

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In a democratic society, the media are central to the communication of risks and uncertainties to the public. This article presents 10 proposals for improving media coverage in social risk situations. The article focuses on the production logic of the media and its consequences for society. The proposals and the conclusions of this research are supported by an analysis of three Spanish cases: the risk implied by the Tarragona chemical complex (one of the biggest in Europe); the terrorist attacks on 11 March 2004 in Madrid; and the Carmel tunnel disaster in Barcelona on January 2005. The authors are participating in a research project on public perception of risk funded by the Spanish Education Ministry on public perception of risk (2004–2007 and 2007–2010).

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Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.

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We analyse the impact of working and contractual conditions, particularly exposure to job risks, on the probability of acquiring a permanent disability, controlling for other personal and firm characteristics. We postulate a model in which this impact is mediated by the choice of occupation, with a level of risk associated with it. We assume this choice is endogenous, and that it depends on preferences and opportunities in the labour market, both of which may differ between immigrants and natives. To test this hypothesis we apply a bivariate probit model to data for 2006 from the Continuous Sample of Working Lives provided by the Spanish Social Security system, containing records for over a million workers. We find that risk exposure increases the probability of permanent disability arising from any cause - by almost 5%.

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BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend treating patients according to their absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We examined perception of CVD risk among adults and how it can be compared with actual CVD risk. METHODS: The perception of CVD risk was assessed by two questions asking about participants' 'risk to get a heart attack or a stroke over the next 10 years' using semiquantitative and quantitative answers in a population-based survey of 816 individuals aged 40-64 years in the Seychelles (African region). Actual CVD risk was calculated using a standard risk prediction score and 24% of adults aged 40-64 years had elevated risk. RESULTS: Only 59% of individuals could give an estimate of perceived CVD risk based on the semiquantitative question and 31% based on the quantitative question. Reporting a perceived CVD risk was strongly associated with high socio-economic status (SES; odds ratio = 9). Among individuals who reported a perceived CVD risk, 48% overestimated their perceived risk versus their actual risk. Reporting a high perceived CVD risk was associated with treatment for CVD risk factors, older age, low SES, and overweight. Reporting a low perceived CVD risk was associated with male sex, younger age, education, normal BMI, and leisure time exercise. CONCLUSION: Only half of the individuals could provide an estimate of their perceived CVD risk, and this perception was strongly associated with SES. Individuals under treatment perceived higher CVD risk than nontreated individuals. Further studies should determine how risk-related information can be better conveyed to individuals as a means to improve adherence to healthy lifestyles and/or treatment.

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Yrityksen sisäisten rajapintojen tunteminen mahdollistaa tiedonvaihdon hallinnan läpi organisaation. Idean muokkaaminen kannattavaksi innovaatioksi edellyttää organisaation eri osien läpi kulkevaa saumatonta prosessiketjua sekä tietovirtaa. Tutkielman tavoitteena oli mallintaa organisaation kahden toiminnallisesti erilaisen osan välinen tiedon vaihto. Tiedon vaihto kuvattiin rajapintana, tietoliittymänä. Kolmiulotteinen organisaatiomalli muodosti tutkimuksen pääteorian. Se kytkettiin yrityksen tuotanto- ja myyntiosiin, kuten myös BestServ-projektin kehittämään uuteen palvelujen kehittämisen prosessiin. Uutta palvelujen kehittämisen prosessia laajennettiin ISO/IEC 15288 standardin kuvaamalla prosessimallilla. Yritysarkkitehtuurikehikoita käytettiin mallintamisen perustana. Tietoliittymä nimenä kuvastaa näkemystä siitä, että tieto [tietämys] on olemukseltaan yksilöiden tai ryhmien välistä. Mallinnusmenetelmät eivät kuitenkaan vielä mahdollista tietoon [tietämykseen] liittyvien kaikkien ominaisuuksien mallintamista. Tietoliittymän malli koostuu kolmesta osasta, joista kaksi esitetään graafisessa muodossa ja yksi taulukkona. Mallia voidaan käyttää itsenäisesti tai osana yritysarkkitehtuuria. Teollisessa palveluliiketoiminnassa sekä tietoliittymän mallinnusmenetelmä että sillä luotu malli voivat auttaa konepajateollisuuden yritystä ymmärtämään yrityksen kehittämistarpeet ja -kohteet, kun se haluaa palvelujen tuottamisella suuremman roolin asiakasyrityksen liiketoiminnassa. Tietoliittymän mallia voidaan käyttää apuna organisaation tietovarannon ja tietämyksen mallintamisessa sekä hallinnassa ja näin pyrkiä yhdistämään ne yrityksen strategiaa palvelevaksi kokonaisuudeksi. Tietoliittymän mallinnus tarjoaa tietojohtamisen kauppatieteelliselle tutkimukselle menetelmällisyyden tutkia innovaatioiden hallintaa sekä organisaation uudistumiskykyä. Kumpikin tutkimusalue tarvitsevat tarkempaa tietoa ja mahdollisuuksia hallita tietovirtoja, tiedon vaihtoa sekä organisaation tietovarannon käyttöä.

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We study new supergravity solutions related to large-N c N=1 supersymmetric gauge field theories with a large number N f of massive flavors. We use a recently proposed framework based on configurations with N c color D5 branes and a distribution of N f flavor D5 branes, governed by a function N f S(r). Although the system admits many solutions, under plausible physical assumptions the relevant solution is uniquely determined for each value of x ≡ N f /N c . In the IR region, the solution smoothly approaches the deformed Maldacena-Núñez solution. In the UV region it approaches a linear dilaton solution. For x < 2 the gauge coupling β g function computed holographically is negative definite, in the UV approaching the NSVZ β function with anomalous dimension γ 0 = −1/2 (approaching − 3/(32π 2)(2N c  − N f )g 3)), and with β g  → −∞ in the IR. For x = 2, β g has a UV fixed point at strong coupling, suggesting the existence of an IR fixed point at a lower value of the coupling. We argue that the solutions with x > 2 describe a"Seiberg dual" picture where N f  − 2N c flips sign.

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Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD), mainly heart attack and stroke, is the leading cause of premature mortality in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Identifying and managing individuals at high risk of CVD is an important strategy to prevent and control CVD, in addition to multisectoral population-based interventions to reduce CVD risk factors in the entire population. Methods: We describe key public health considerations in identifying and managing individuals at high risk of CVD in LMICs. Results: A main objective of any strategy to identify individuals at high CVD risk is to maximize the number of CVD events averted while minimizing the numbers of individuals needing treatment. Scores estimating the total risk of CVD (e.g. ten-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD) are available for LMICs, and are based on the main CVD risk factors (history of CVD, age, sex, tobacco use, blood pressure, blood cholesterol and diabetes status). Opportunistic screening of CVD risk factors enables identification of persons with high CVD risk, but this strategy can be widely applied in low resource settings only if cost effective interventions are used (e.g. the WHO Package of Essential NCD interventions for primary health care in low resource settings package) and if treatment (generally for years) can be sustained, including continued availability of affordable medications and funding mechanisms that allow people to purchase medications without impoverishing them (e.g. universal access to health care). This also emphasises the need to re-orient health systems in LMICs towards chronic diseases management.

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The thesis studies role based access control and its suitability in the enterprise environment. The aim is to research how extensively role based access control can be implemented in the case organization and how it support organization’s business and IT functions. This study points out the enterprise’s needs for access control, factors of access control in the enterprise environment and requirements for implementation and the benefits and challenges it brings along. To find the scope how extensively role based access control can be implemented into the case organization, firstly is examined the actual state of access control. Secondly is defined a rudimentary desired state (how things should be) and thirdly completed it by using the results of the implementation of role based access control application. The study results the role model for case organization unit, and the building blocks and the framework for the organization wide implementation. Ultimate value for organization is delivered by facilitating the normal operations of the organization whilst protecting its information assets.

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We use an ordered logistic model to empirically examine the factors that explain varying degrees of private involvement in the U.S. water sector through public-private partnerships. Our estimates suggest that a variety of factors help explain greater private participation in this sector. We find that the risk to private participants regarding cost recovery is an important driver of private participation. The relative cost of labor is also a key factor in determining the degree of private involvement in the contract choice. When public wages are high relative to private wages, private participation is viewed as a source of cost savings. We thus find two main drivers of greater private involvement: one encouraging private participation by reducing risk, and another encouraging government to seek out private participation in lowering costs.

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Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

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Several studies have suggested a bilingual advantage in executive functions, presumably due to bilinguals' massive practice with language switching that requires executive resources, but the results are still somewhat controversial. Previous studies are also plagued by the inherent limitations of a natural groups design where the participant groups are bound to differ in many ways in addition to the variable used to classify them. In an attempt to introduce a complementary analysis approach, we employed multiple regression to study whether the performance of 30- to 75-year-old FinnishSwedish bilinguals (N = 38) on tasks measuring different executive functions (inhibition, updating, and set shifting) could be predicted by the frequency of language switches in everyday life (as measured by a language switching questionnaire), L2 age of acquisition, or by the self-estimated degree of use of both languages in everyday life. Most consistent effects were found for the set shifting task where a higher rate of everyday language switches was related to a smaller mixing cost in errors. Mixing cost is thought to reflect top-down management of competing task sets, thus resembling the bilingual situation where decisions of which language to use has to be made in each conversation. These findings provide additional support to the idea that some executive functions in bilinguals are affected by a lifelong experience in language switching and, perhaps even more importantly, suggest a complementary approach to the study of this issue.