Surviving without leading: Jacques Chirac

The presidency of Jacques Chirac in France (1995-2007) was scarred by two crushing defeats: the parliamentary elections of 25 May and 1 June 1997, and the referendum on the European Constitution of 29 May 2005. As both were highly personal setbacks, since both votes were taken at Chirac’s initiative they suggest that a dominant presidential position, twice won, was twice squandered owing to a failure of leadership. This chapter argues, firstly, that the weaknesses of the presidency arose chiefly from the three decades of Chirac’s career before the 1995 election – and, secondly, that Chirac’s record of presidential leadership, though limited, is more substantial than these two major failures suggest.

If the British left: agricultural policy outside the CAP?

If the Conservative party wins Britain’s General Election in 2015 the incoming Government intends to negotiate a new settlement with the EU, and then hold an in-out referendum. Opinion polls suggest a narrow majority would vote to leave. To exercise an informed choice the electorate would need to know what feasible alternatives are available, so that these can be assessed and debated. Furthermore, in the event of a no vote the Government must be ready to implement its alternative strategy: Plan B. This implies that both a new EU settlement, and Plan B, need to be negotiated concurrently. There has been no serious attempt to explain what Plan B would mean for UK farm policy. Would, for example, British farmers continue to receive the level of support that they currently enjoy; would support be more focussed on environmental objectives? WTO rules on most-favoured-nation treatment and regional trade agreements would apply. Could a WTO compatible agri-food trade agreement be negotiated with its former EU partners, or would Irish and Brazilian beef face the same tariff barriers on imports into the British market? For the EU, the loss of a major net contributor to EU finances could result in a re-examination of the CAP budget.

Independence referendums: who should vote and who should be offered citizenship?

In this EUDO CITIZENSHIP Forum Debate, several authors consider the interrelations between eligibility criteria for participation in independence referendum (that may result in the creation of a new independent state) and the determination of putative citizenship ab initio (on day one) of such a state. The kick-off contribution argues for resemblance of an independence referendum franchise and of the initial determination of the citizenry, critically appraising the incongruence between the franchise for the 18 September 2014 Scottish independence referendum, and the blueprint for Scottish citizenship ab initio put forward by the Scottish Government in its 'Scotland's Future' White Paper. Contributors to this debate come from divergent disciplines (law, political science, sociology, philosophy). They reflect on and contest the above claims, both generally and in relation to regional settings including (in addition to Scotland) Catalonia/Spain, Flanders/Belgium, Quebec/Canada, Post-Yugoslavia and Puerto-Rico/USA.

Is the future of electoral reform local?

The Electoral Reform Society has recently published two reports putting the case for electoral reform in local government. These suggest acceptance, in the wake of defeat in the 2011 Alternative Vote referendum, that the group’s ultimate goal of change to the Westminster electoral system is unlikely to be fulfilled soon and that a more gradual strategy is therefore needed. This paper examines this shift by asking three questions. First, is Westminster electoral reform really a dead letter? Second, is local electoral reform more likely—and, if so, just how much more likely? Third, would local electoral reform matter in itself?

Brexit or Bremain? Future options for UK agricultural policy and the CAP

The outcome of the UK’s referendum on continued EU membership is at the time of writing uncertain, and the consequences of a vote to remain (‘Bremain’) or leave (‘Brexit’) difficult to predict. Polarised views have been voiced about the impact of Brexit on UK agriculture, and on the nature and level of funding, of future policy. Policymakers would not have the luxury of devising a new policy from scratch. WTO rules and commitments, the nature of any future accord with the EU, budget constraints, the rather different perspectives of the UK’s devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and the expectations of farmers, landowners and the environmental lobby, will all impact the policymaking process. The WTO dimension, and the UK’s future relationship with the EU, are particularly difficult to predict, and – some commentators believe – may take years to resolve. Brexit’s impact on the future CAP is also unclear. A vote to remain within the EU would not necessarily assuage the Eurosceptics’ criticisms of the EU, or the UK’s perception of the CAP. Whatever the outcome, future agricultural, food and rural land use policies will remain key preoccupations of European governments.

Nykter bildning : En undersökning över IOGT, NTO och TO:s folkbildningsverksamhet i Dalarna 1921-1939

This study contents a research of the Swedish temperance movements IOGT, NTO and TO:s adult education in Dalarna between 1921 and 1939. A theory that is used in this essay is the publicity theory of Jürgen Habermas. A theory in this essay is that the adult educational work of the temperance movements could bee seen as an alternative publicity because the courses that the temperance movement held in general contents a great part of the movements own literature, the participants in the courses held their own lectures to each other and it was mostly only members of the temperance movements who could join the courses. The main subject of the courses was history in literature, English, Esperanto, and knowledge about local democracy. Not many courses content the drinking issue in Sweden at this time, even thought a national referendum was held in the issue during the research period of this essay. The lack of courses in the drinking issue illustrates of the fact that the courses only was held for the members of the temperance movement, and they don’t drink alcohol in any case. It was not a big difference in the contents of the course between the organisation in the temperance movements and between different years in this research.

O Brasil diz sim às armas de fogo: uma análise sobre o referendo do desarmamento

O trabalho analisa o processo eleitoral do referendo sobre a proibição da comercialização de armas de fogo e munição no Brasil a partir das percepções e motivações dos eleitores. Tendo como fonte de pesquisa as cartas de leitores de três jornais de grande circulação no país, pretende identificar os principais valores, sentimentos e argumentos mencionados na justificação do voto. Para isso, apresenta algumas considerações sobre cultura política, cultura do medo, percepções da insegurança e da cidadania no Brasil.

Responsabilização política nos estados brasileiros: o voto econômico nas eleições para governador

O intuito desta dissertação é investigar a capacidade dos eleitores brasileiros em atribuir responsabilidade aos governadores dos estados e a seus partidos pelas políticas públicas estaduais no período após redemocratização, mais especificamente de 1990 em diante. De maneira breve, se tratou de verificar se a probabilidade de reeleição de um governador ou de perpetuação de seu partido no governo é influenciada pela performance econômica de seu estado, pela performance da economia nacional ou não é influenciada pela economia. Utilizando-se dos pressupostos das teorias do voto econômico, se pretendeu auferir a existência de algum dos dois padrões de responsabilização política de governadores apontados pela literatura: o voto econômico subnacional e o voto de referendo. Além disso, foi explorada a relação entre o desempenho fiscal do governador e probabilidade de reeleição. Também foi testada a possibilidade de que as diferenças entre os estados no contexto federativo contemporâneo sejam um fator mediador da relação entre economia e voto. De maneira geral, os resultados da pesquisa apontam para a existência de voto econômico subnacional mediado pelo grau de autonomia dos estados em relação ao governo federal e para a rejeição da tese do voto de referendo. Em estados mais dependentes os eleitores tendem a penalizar seus governadores por altos níveis de desemprego. Também o desempenho fiscal apareceu como uma variável importante para explicar a reeleição nos estados. Governadores que apresentam superávits correntes em anos eleitorais foram beneficiados eleitoralmente, contrariando a noção de que em democracias novas os políticos são capazes de melhorar seu desempenho eleitoral através de aumento do gasto público.

Custos da perda de uma vida e médico-hospitalares nos acidentes de trânsito

Os objetivos da presente tese visam determinar os custos médico-hospitalares e aqueles referentes à perda de uma vida ou valor da vida estatística (VVE) para os acidentados no trânsito. Para o primeiro objetivo, a pesquisa ex-post facto foi realizada no arquivo médico do Hospital Cristo Redentor (SAME-HCR), situado na cidade de Porto Alegre e especializado no atendimento a pacientes traumatizados. A análise dos prontuários para verificar a gravidade das lesões, assim como o custo resultante de cada acidentado, envolveu a identificação daqueles tratados através de convênios e particulares, bem como através do Sistema Unificado de Saúde (SUS). Foram consultados 186 prontuários e gerados dois modelos, sendo um linear múltiplo e outro multiplicativo. O modelo multiplicativo resultou mais robusto. Os custos médios de lesões severas estão em torno de US$ 4.000 e US$ 7.000, respectivamente, para pacientes atendidos através do SUS ou por convênio ou particular. No segundo objetivo, foram utilizadas duas metodologias para determinação do VVE. A primeira metodologia utilizou as técnicas de Preferência Declarada (PD) através da escolha de alternativas com multi-atributos. Na segunda, foi empregada a análise contingente que utiliza um único atributo, denominada referendum (AR). A pesquisa foi realizada de forma presencial junto a 419 motoristas amadores dos quais 41% apresentaram comportamento lexicográfico. Com a metodologia PD, a faixa de variação do VVE em um acidente com morte foi de US$ 119 a 333 mil, aproximadamente, considerando os modelos válidos O valor da hora, utilizado para controle do experimento, ficou contido na faixa entre US$ 1,33 a 2,56. A metodologia AR, utilizada na forma exploratória, está baseada na função utilidade que possibilita disposição de pagar individual negativa. Como decorrência, o valor médio e mediano da disposição de pagar dos indivíduos (DDP) resultou positivo ou negativo dependendo dos coeficientes obtidos na estimação. Esse fato determinou o emprego de expressões para o cálculo da média e mediana, considerando também o truncamento da função logística somente para valores positivos. Os valores obtidos para o VVE apresentaram grande flutuação.

Turnout and quorum in referenda

We analyse the effect of turnout requirement in referenda in the context of a group turnout model. We show that a participation quorum requirement may reduce the turnout so severely that it generates a "quorum paradox": in equilibrium, the expected turnout exceds the participation quorum only if this requirement is not imposed. Moreover, a participation quorum does not necessarily imply a bias for the status quo. We also show that in order to induce a given expected turnout, the quorum should be set at a level that is lower than half tha target, and the effect of a participation quorum on welfare is ambiguous. On the one hand, the quorum decreases voters' welfare by misrepresenting the will of the majority. On the other hand, it might also reduce the total cost of voting. Finally, we show that an approval quorum is essentially equivalent to a participation quorum.

Iniciativa popular na concretização do direito fundamental à democracia

The Participatory Democracy is disseminated throughout the Principle of Popular Sovereignty. Since it spurs the participation of the people in the exercise of political power, it emerges as a conciliatory alternative to the Representative Regime - one of questionable legitimacy in account of the distortion it causes on the will of the public. It does so specially vis-à-vis the legislative, where the law is created. It s known that our Constitution (arts. 1º e 14, CF/88) provides for the means through which the members of the public may take part in the political process of the country, for it consecrates the plebiscite, the referendum and the popular initiative, all of them incipiently regulated by the Lei nº 9.709/98. It s our task, thus, to inquire, through deductive reasoning as well as the legal exegeses, the enforceability of the Popular Initiative as a means of popular emancipation, given that it enables the citizens to conscientiously participate in the public sphere. It has also an educational ethos which builds the capacity of individual to act, and, therefore, through thoughtful choices, enhance the legal system. Furthermore, the Lei da Ficha Limpa (LC nº 135/2010) surely represents a milestone in the Brazilian political history, since it accrued from a new way of social interaction allowed by the usage of communication technology on the pursuit of political morality. As a matter of fact, this bill is a clear example of how a legal act was legitimately proposed through Public Initiative. Hence, it s beneficial to actually make use of the Public Initiative, under the influence of the New Constitutional Hermeneutics, with a view to supporting social claims and promoting a dialogical relationship with the State in order to help it in the decisionmaking process. Thereat, we can achieve important civic spaces through which the fundamental right to democracy shall be materialized, tearing apart the old paradigms of inequality and, thus, promoting social justice

Despertando responsabilidade social no ensino médio por meio de temáticas associadas à física nuclear

Many discussions about the role of the school are on the agenda, in an increasingly complex society. Sociologists, educators, anthropologists, researchers of different areas seek that role. The objective of this dissertation is to contribute what we can consider the central role for the physics teaching, citizenship training. We have elaborated a didactic proposal to increase the interest of high school students on issues of social relevance and, throughout it, to promote the formation of attitudes of social responsibility, enhancing the formation of a more politically and socially active citizen. For the preparation of the proposal, studies were made on education for citizenship and on attitudes change, using as its main theoretical foundation the researches on the Science, Technology and Society curricular emphasis. The teaching of Nuclear Physics was integrated to our proposal, due to its pedagogical potential for the discussion of social, political and economic subjects related to scientific concepts and associated technologies. The educational proposal we have produced was applied on a high school class of a private school at Natal-RN. It was composed from the controversial issue involving the installation of nuclear power plants in Brazilian northeast. The methodology of role playing, in which students assumed social roles and produced specific subsidies for a public hearing and a later referendum, both simulated. In the analysis of the implementation of the proposal, we highlighted the difficulties but also the possibilities and the relevance of exercising skills such as reasoning, finding information, and arguing about of social problems. The results of the research showed the possibility of meaningful learning on Nuclear Physics contents, through this social, political, economic, scientific and technological contextualization using a controversial and real issue together with mechanisms that trigger for greater popular participation, as public hearing. It has also been identified changes in attitude by some students about issues related to Nuclear Physics. We hope, through this dissertation, to contribute to the formation of future citizens as well as to the initiative of teachers-researchers with pedagogical aims similar to those in the present work

A comunicação das campanhas sociais na televisão: a leitura do jovem sobre o referendo da comercialização de armas de fogo e munição do Brasil

Pós-graduação em Comunicação - FAAC

Nasce um Estado: a construção do Timor Leste

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

As perspectivas políticas da criação do Estado de Carajás a partir do ponto de vista das representações parlamentares municipais

Este estudo trata da perspectiva de criação do Estado do Carajás sob o ponto de vista das representações parlamentares dos municípios das regiões sul e sudeste do Pará. As teorias sobre representação política e as críticas da teoria das elites nortearam a análise, visto que a temática da redivisão do território paraense tem inflamado os discursos de candidatos a cargos políticos, e durante a campanha do plebiscito de dezembro de 2011 o debate reverteu-se em animosidade entre as frentes pluripartidárias do sim e do não, pela alegação da frente oponente à emancipação, que a divisão tratava-se de um projeto político das elites locais. De base empírica, o levantamento de campo foi aplicado a vereadores dos 39 municípios da região. A pesquisa revelou que a mobilização política regionalista ancora-se na distância do poder decisório que deixaria a região fora da agenda governamental e enfatiza o esquecimento do poder público estadual. Os vereadores veem o novo estado como uma possibilidade de atender às demandas por políticas públicas e oportunidades de emprego e renda, mas percebem claramente uma oportunidade de crescimento de suas carreiras políticas e de aumentar a paridade na balança da representatividade do norte no Congresso Nacional.