Macroeconomic impacts of politics and policy: Applications to financial and real markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Gender influence on treatment of chronic hepatitis C genotype 1

INTRODUCTION: Although various studies have been published regarding the treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) with peginterferon (Peg-IFN) and ribavirin, little is known regarding the real impact of gender on the characteristics that influence the effectiveness and safety of antiviral treatment for CHC patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of gender on HCV treatment outcomes. METHODS: A retrospective analytical study was conducted among selected carriers of CHC genotype 1, who were treated with Peg-IFN α-2b at a dose of 1.5 μg/kg or Peg-IFN α-2a at a dose of 180 μg/week plus a ribavirin dose of 1,000-1,250 mg/day, according to weight, between 2001 and 2007. RESULTS: Among 181 patients undergoing treatment, the mean age was 46.4 ± 11.0 years and 46% were women. At baseline, 32% of the patients had advanced fibrosis (F3-F4 Scheuer), and 83% of the subjects had viral load > 400,000 IU/ml, without significant difference between the genders (p = 0.428 and p = 0.452, respectively). When compared with men, women had higher incidence of many adverse events such as anemia (p < 0.001) and higher need for dose reduction, for both Peg-IFN (p = 0.004) and ribavirin (p = 0.006). However, the rate of sustained virological response (SVR) did not differ between the genders: 45% (female) vs 41% (male); p=0.464. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that women and men react differently to combined therapy, especially in relation to the incidence of adverse events and the need for dose modification. Nevertheless, these differences do not influence the SVR rate.

Transactions in dynamic reactive environments

Most of today’s systems, especially when related to the Web or to multi-agent systems, are not standalone or independent, but are part of a greater ecosystem, where they need to interact with other entities, react to complex changes in the environment, and act both over its own knowledge base and on the external environment itself. Moreover, these systems are clearly not static, but are constantly evolving due to the execution of self updates or external actions. Whenever actions and updates are possible, the need to ensure properties regarding the outcome of performing such actions emerges. Originally purposed in the context of databases, transactions solve this problem by guaranteeing atomicity, consistency, isolation and durability of a special set of actions. However, current transaction solutions fail to guarantee such properties in dynamic environments, since they cannot combine transaction execution with reactive features, or with the execution of actions over domains that the system does not completely control (thus making rolling back a non-viable proposition). In this thesis, we investigate what and how transaction properties can be ensured over these dynamic environments. To achieve this goal, we provide logic-based solutions, based on Transaction Logic, to precisely model and execute transactions in such environments, and where knowledge bases can be defined by arbitrary logic theories.

Methodological framework for detection of harmonisation breaking in service environments

As the complexity of markets and the dynamicity of systems evolve, the need for interoperable systems capable of strengthening enterprise communication effectiveness increases. This is particularly significant when it comes to collaborative enterprise networks, like manufacturing supply chains, where several companies work, communicate, and depend on each other, in order to achieve a specific goal. Once interoperability is achieved, that is once all network parties are able to communicate with and understand each other, organisations are able to exchange information along a stable environment that follows agreed laws. However, as markets adapt to new requirements and demands, an evolutionary behaviour is triggered giving space to interoperability problems, thus disrupting the sustainability of interoperability and raising the need to develop monitoring activities capable of detecting and preventing unexpected behaviour. This work seeks to contribute to the development of monitoring techniques for interoperable SOA-based enterprise networks. It focuses on the automatic detection of harmonisation breaking events during real-time communications, and strives to develop and propose a methodological approach to handle these disruptions with minimal or no human intervention, hence providing existing service-based networks with the ability to detect and promptly react to interoperability issues.

Determinants of Portuguese bank’s provisioning policies: Discretionary behaviour of generic and specific allowances

In this paper we test for the impact of the regulatory environment on a bank’s discretionary provisioning practices. We develop a model that structures the dynamics of the provision policy for the two classes of provisions: generic provisions and specific provisions. The model is tested using a comprehensive database of all financial institutions operating in Portugal for 1990-2000. This unique dataset comprises banks subject to the Portuguese rules as well as bank subsidiaries subject to their home-country regulation and we were able to identify distinct behaviours between them. Our results show the importance of handling he two types of provisions separately. They support the hypothesis that banks have a discretionary behaviour in setting up their provisions, and find evidence of income smoothing and capital management. We also find that the regulatory regime impacts on discretionary provisioning policies because banks when forced to increase one type of provision react by reducing the iscretionary component of the other, a finding we designated as a substitution effect.

An analog model for global macro investing

This study proposes a systematic model that is able to fit the Global Macro Investing universe. The Analog Model tests the possibility of capturing the likelihood of an optimal investment allocation based on similarity across different periods in history. Instead of observing Macroeconomic data, the model uses financial markets’ variables to classify unknown short-term regimes. This methodology is particularly relevant considering that asset classes and investment strategies react differently to specific macro environment shifts.

Management consulting labs- Galp loyalty

The purpose of this project was to diagnose and estimate the possible value to add to the current loyalty program of Galp and to explore possible redefinitions to the loyalty approach. In order to do that it was performed a deep benchmarking about the company, exhaustive research on the existent data about loyalty and loyalty programs, new data mining with quantitative and qualitative analysis, exploratory market research and ideation sessions. Based on all the work developed, a group of five changes of paradigm were suggested through structured and innovative ideas to answer the challenge proposed.

Uma análise comparativa do conceito de trauma em Winnicott e Kohut

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada no Instituto Superior de Psicologia Aplicada para obtenção do grau de Mestre na especialidade de Psicologia Clínica.

Overstock and stock-out in Volkswagen Autoeuropa

The following work is a case study of overstock and stock-out problems at Volkswagen Autoeuropa (VWAE). It introduces the supply chain of Autoeuropa and specializes then on failures connected to inventory problems. Having a successful supply chain is important in a world where products become more and more similar as it can give to companies an edge over their competitors. The case shows three practices that VWAE uses to prevent and to overcome stock problems. Information was gathered by doing interviews with different managers, by analyzing the company’s key processes and by literature research related to the topics of supply chain management and flexibility in the supply chain. Three practices were further investigated: the use of alternative parts, support of the supplier and a rating system of suppliers. In the question section of this work the importance of flexibility and Supplier Relationship Management (SRM) when connected to supply chain management are explained. The described different practices are numerically analyzed and it is concluded that each practice brings both cost savings and the possibility of achieving target numbers to the company, showing the company’s flexibility to react to supply chain disturbances. Because of confidentiality reasons, persons in the case are fictionalized and numbers are wherever possible equalized to 100 in order to display true proportions.

Nestle's dynamic forecasting process: Anticipating risks and opportunities

Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process: Anticipating Risks and Opportunities This Work Project discusses the Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process, implemented within the organization as a way of reengineering its performance management concept and processes, so as to make it more flexible and capable to react to volatile business conditions. When stressing the importance of demand planning to reallocate resources and enhance performance, Nescafé Dolce Gusto comes as way of seeking improvements on this forecasts’ accuracy and it is thus, by providing a more accurate model on its capsules’ sales, as well as recommending adequate implementations that positively contribute to the referred Planning Process, that value is brought to the Project

Leishmania, Babesia and Ehrlichia in urban pet dogs: co-infection or cross-reaction in serological methods?

INTRODUCTION: The present study was designed to assess the occurrence of co-infection or cross-reaction in the serological techniques used for detecting the anti-Leishmania spp., -Babesia canis vogeli and -Ehrlichia canis antibodies in urban dogs from an area endemic to these parasites. METHODS: The serum samples from dogs were tested for the Babesia canis vogeli strain Belo Horizonte antigen and Ehrlichia canis strain São Paulo by immunofluorescence antibody test (IFAT) and by anti-Leishmania immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody detection to assess Leishmania infection. We used the following four commercial kits for canine visceral leishmaniasis: ELISA, IFAT, Dual Path Platform (DPP) (Bio Manguinhos(r)/FIOCRUZ/MS) and a rK39 RDT (Kalazar Detect Canine Rapid Test; Inbios). RESULTS : Of 96 serum samples submitted to serological assays, 4 (4.2%) were positive for Leishmania as determined by ELISA; 12 (12.5%), by IFAT; 14 (14.6%) by rK39 RDT; and 20 (20.8%), by DPP. Antibodies against Ehrlichia and Babesia were detected in 23/96 (23.9%) and 30/96 (31.2%) samples, respectively. No significant association was identified between the results of tests for detecting Babesia or Ehrlichia and those for detecting Leishmania (p-value>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In the present study, we demonstrated co-infection with Ehrlichia or Babesia and Leishmania in dogs from Minas Gerais (Brazil); we also found that the serological tests that were used did not cross-react.

Cultura de segurança em proteção civil

This work aims to stress the concept of a security culture in the sense that each one of us is an emergency responder, the first one to respond, and the more prepared we are, with better training and awareness, the better we will perform, this applies even to the relationship between us and the Emergency Responders. All this will lead to a better probability of surviving an accident. If there is an accident, anywhere at any time, each one of us is alone. And the bigger the accident is the longer we stay alone. There is no firefighter, no policeman, no doctor, so it is very important to be competent, in other words, knowing how to react, wanting to react and being able to react. This is a basic requirement to understand the phenomenon, to know the consequences arising from the way we act and that we have to perform according to the situation: before, during and after it occurred. In brief, let’s not make resilience be just a word, let’s make it a concept that belongs to the higher definition of the Security Culture.

Drilling deeper: Understanding trade in Angola

The present study analyzes Angola’s trading partners from 2005 to 2015 in order to understand the main drivers of Exports and Imports growth. Departing from a gravity model, foreign GDP growth and real exchange rate fluctuations were interpreted as demand and supply disturbances on Exports. While nominal and real exports both increase with demand expansions, they react differently to supply shocks. Imports are growing at the same rate as Angola’s economy while exchange rate fluctuations capture the wealth effect of Oil price in the economy.

Photochemical synthesis and functional transformations of bicyclic vinyl aziridines

Aziridines, a class of organic compounds containing a three membered heterocycle with a nitrogen atom, are extremely valuable molecules in organic and medicinal chemistry. They are frequently used as versatile precursors in the synthesis of natural products, and many biologically active molecules possess the aziridine moiety. The reactivity of aziridines has been studied, for example, in ring-opening reactions with thiols. However, not much interest seems to be given to reactions of aziridines in aqueous media, despite the numberless advantages of using water as solvent in organic chemistry. The nucleophilic ring-opening reaction of aziridines in aqueous media was here explored. Following the Kaplan aziridine synthetic methodology, in which pyridinium salts undergo a photochemical transformation to give bicyclic vinyl aziridines, new aziridines were synthetized. Their nucleophilic ring-opening reaction in water under physiological conditions was investigated and a range of sulphur, nitrogen, carbon and oxygen nucleophiles tested. Thiols, anilines and azide proved to be good nucleophiles to react with the aziridines, giving the ring-opening product in moderate to good yields. The best results were obtained with thiols, more specifically with cysteine-derived nucleophiles. Preliminary results show that these bicyclic vinyl aziridines can modify calcitonin, a peptide containing two cysteine amino acids residues, grating them the potential to be used in bioconjugation as ligands to cysteine-containing proteins, or even as enzyme inhibitors of, for example, cysteine proteases. Additionally, exploratory investigations suggest that the separation of both enantiomers of the bicyclic vinyl aziridine can be performed by taking advantage of an enzymatic methodology for the resolution of racemic secondary alcohols. Both enantiomers would be highly valuable as precursors in the synthesis of enantiomerically pure molecules, as no other method is currently reported for their separation.

Peer interaction and learning opportunities in cohesive and less cohesive L2 classrooms

The present study investigates peer to peer oral interaction in two task based language teaching classrooms, one of which was a self-declared cohesive group, and the other a self- declared less cohesive group, both at B1 level. It studies how learners talk cohesion into being and considers how this talk leads to learning opportunities in these groups. The study was classroom-based and was carried out over the period of an academic year. Research was conducted in the classrooms and the tasks were part of regular class work. The research was framed within a sociocognitive perspective of second language learning and data came from a number of sources, namely questionnaires, interviews and audio recorded talk of dyads, triads and groups of four students completing a total of eight oral tasks. These audio recordings were transcribed and analysed qualitatively for interactions which encouraged a positive social dimension and behaviours which led to learning opportunities, using conversation analysis. In addition, recordings were analysed quantitatively for learning opportunities and quantity and quality of language produced. Results show that learners in both classes exhibited multiple behaviours in interaction which could promote a positive social dimension, although behaviours which could discourage positive affect amongst group members were also found. Analysis of interactions also revealed the many ways in which learners in both the cohesive and less cohesive class created learning opportunities. Further qualitative analysis of these interactions showed that a number of factors including how learners approach a task, the decisions they make at zones of interactional transition and the affective relationship between participants influence the amount of learning opportunities created, as well as the quality and quantity of language produced. The main conclusion of the study is that it is not the cohesive nature of the group as a whole but the nature of the relationship between the individual members of the small group completing the task which influences the effectiveness of oral interaction for learning.This study contributes to our understanding of the way in which learners individualise the learning space and highlights the situated nature of language learning. It shows how individuals interact with each other and the task, and how talk in interaction changes moment-by-moment as learners react to the ‘here and now’ of the classroom environment.