916 resultados para Proportional Hazards Model


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Background. Assessment of estrogen receptor (ER) expression has inconsistent utility as a prognostic marker in epithelial ovarian carcinoma. In breast and endometrial cancers, the use of estrogen-induced gene panels, rather than ER expression alone, has shown improved prognostic capability. Specifically, over-expression of estrogen-induced genes in these tumors is associated with a better prognosis and signifies estrogen sensitivity that can be exploited with hormone antagonizing agents. It was therefore hypothesized that estrogen-induced gene expression in ovarian carcinoma would successfully predict outcomes and differentiate between tumors of varying estrogen sensitivities. Methods. Two hundred nineteen (219) patients with ovarian cancer who underwent surgery at M. D. Anderson between 2004 and 2007 were identified. Of these, eighty-three (83) patients were selected for inclusion because they had advanced stage, high-grade serous carcinoma of the ovary or peritoneum, had not received neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and had readily available frozen tissue for study. All patients had also received adjuvant treatment with platinum and taxane agents. The expression of seven genes known to be induced by estrogen in the female reproductive tract (EIG121, sFRP1, sFRP4, RALDH2, PR, IGF-1, and ER) was measured using qRT-PCR. Unsupervised cluster analyses of multiple gene permutations were used to categorize patients as high or low estrogen-induced gene expressors. QPCR gene expression results were then compared to ER and PR immunohistochemical (IHC) expression. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the effects of both individual genes and selected gene clusters on patient survival. Results. Median follow-up time was 38.7 months (range 1-68 months). In a multivariate model, overall survival was predicted by sFRP1 expression (HR 1.10 [1.02-1.19], p=0.01) and EIG121 expression (HR 1.28 [1.10-1.49], p<0.01). A cluster defined by EIG121 and ER was further examined because that combination appeared to reasonably segregate tumors into distinct groups of high and low estrogen-induced gene expressors. Shorter overall survival was associated with high estrogen-induced gene expressors (HR 2.84 [1.11-7.30], p=0.03), even after adjustment for race, age, body mass index, and residual disease at debulking. No difference in IHC ER or PR expression was noted between gene clusters. Conclusion. In sharp contrast to breast and endometrial cancers, high estrogen-induced gene expression predicts shorter overall survival in patients with high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma. An estrogen-induced gene biomarker panel may have utility as prognostic indicator and may be useful to guide management with estrogen antagonists in this population.^

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A Bayesian approach to estimation of the regression coefficients of a multinominal logit model with ordinal scale response categories is presented. A Monte Carlo method is used to construct the posterior distribution of the link function. The link function is treated as an arbitrary scalar function. Then the Gauss-Markov theorem is used to determine a function of the link which produces a random vector of coefficients. The posterior distribution of the random vector of coefficients is used to estimate the regression coefficients. The method described is referred to as a Bayesian generalized least square (BGLS) analysis. Two cases involving multinominal logit models are described. Case I involves a cumulative logit model and Case II involves a proportional-odds model. All inferences about the coefficients for both cases are described in terms of the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients. The results from the BGLS method are compared to maximum likelihood estimates of the regression coefficients. The BGLS method avoids the nonlinear problems encountered when estimating the regression coefficients of a generalized linear model. The method is not complex or computationally intensive. The BGLS method offers several advantages over Bayesian approaches. ^

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Introdução: O excesso de peso em adultos jovens está associado ao desenvolvimento de doenças crônicas não transmissíveis (DCNT) e à diminuição da qualidade de vida e ao aumento da mortalidade precoce. A transição da adolescência para a fase adulta é o período de maior risco para a incidência da obesidade. Objetivo: Estimar o efeito o índice de massa corpora (IMC) aos 20 anos sobre a incidência de DCNT em adultos brasileiros com idade entre 30 a 49 anos. Métodos: Foram selecionados 12.079 indivíduos de 30 a 49 anos da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde (PNS), realizada no ano de 2013. O modelo adotado para determinação das DCNT foi aquele proposto pela Organização Mundial de Saúde. A incidência das DCNT (hipertensão, doenças cardiovasculares, diabetes e câncer, entre outras), informada pela data do diagnóstico, foi modelada como função do IMC aos 20 anos. Os indivíduos sem a doença até o presente foram considerados como censura. As estimativas de sobrevida foram calculadas com o método de Kaplan-Meier (KM) para cada uma das doenças, estratificada por sexo e ajustada por escolaridade. A análise dos fatores de risco para as doenças foi feita utilizando-se o modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox. Resultados: Nas curvas de sobrevida KM, indivíduos com IMC >=25kg/m² apresentaram incidência mais elevada e precoce de DCNT, principalmente hipertensão, diabetes e depressão. A idade mediana para incidência do diabetes em obesos foi de 47 anos para homens e 48 anos para mulheres. A incidência da hipertensão arterial foi 4,2 por mil com sobrevida mediana de 48 e 44 anos em mulheres com excesso de peso e obesidade, respectivamente. Dentre os fatores de risco associados as DCNT, o tabagismo em idade precoce foi associado à incidência de depressão. Conclusão: O excesso de peso em adultos jovens aumenta a incidência precoce de DCNT, com efeitos negativos na qualidade de vida, lazer e produtividade, além de aumentar a demanda por serviços de saúde. Torna-se necessário que a intervenção para redução dessas doenças seja direcionada para o período da infância e adolescência com ações que promovam a redução da exposição desses indivíduos à alimentação de má qualidade e incentivo a prática de atividade, não uso do tabaco e consumo moderado de álcool.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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We investigate whether relative contributions of genetic and shared environmental factors are associated with an increased risk in melanoma. Data from the Queensland Familial Melanoma Project comprising 15,907 subjects arising from 1912 families were analyzed to estimate the additive genetic, common and unique environmental contributions to variation in the age at onset of melanoma. Two complementary approaches for analyzing correlated time-to-onset family data were considered: the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method in which one can estimate relationship-specific dependence simultaneously with regression coefficients that describe the average population response to changing covariates; and a subject-specific Bayesian mixed model in which heterogeneity in regression parameters is explicitly modeled and the different components of variation may be estimated directly. The proportional hazards and Weibull models were utilized, as both produce natural frameworks for estimating relative risks while adjusting for simultaneous effects of other covariates. A simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for covariate imputation of missing data was used and the actual implementation of the Bayesian model was based on Gibbs sampling using the free ware package BUGS. In addition, we also used a Bayesian model to investigate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental effects on the expression of naevi and freckles, which are known risk factors for melanoma.

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The aim of this study was to apply multifailure survival methods to analyze time to multiple occurrences of basal cell carcinoma (BCC). Data from 4.5 years of follow-up in a randomized controlled trial, the Nambour Skin Cancer Prevention Trial (1992-1996), to evaluate skin cancer prevention were used to assess the influence of sunscreen application on the time to first BCC and the time to subsequent BCCs. Three different approaches of time to ordered multiple events were applied and compared: the Andersen-Gill, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld, and Prentice-Williams-Peterson models. Robust variance estimation approaches were used for all multifailure survival models. Sunscreen treatment was not associated with time to first occurrence of a BCC (hazard ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.79, 1.45). Time to subsequent BCC tumors using the Andersen-Gill model resulted in a lower estimated hazard among the daily sunscreen application group, although statistical significance was not reached (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 1.15). Similarly, both the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld marginal-hazards and the Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap-time models revealed trends toward a lower risk of subsequent BCC tumors among the sunscreen intervention group. These results demonstrate the importance of conducting multiple-event analysis for recurring events, as risk factors for a single event may differ from those where repeated events are considered.

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OBJECTIVE: Low HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) and small HDL particle size may directly promote hyperglycemia. We evaluated associations of HDL-C, apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I), and HDL-C/apoA-I with insulin secretion, insulin resistance, HbA1c, and long-term glycemic deterioration, reflected by initiation of pharmacologic glucose control.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The 5-year Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD) study followed 9,795 type 2 diabetic subjects. We calculated baseline associations of fasting HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I with HbA1c and, in those not taking exogenous insulin (n = 8,271), with estimated β-cell function (homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function [HOMA-B]) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Among the 2,608 subjects prescribed lifestyle only, Cox proportional hazards analysis evaluated associations of HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I with subsequent initiation of oral hypoglycemic agents (OHAs) or insulin.

RESULTS: Adjusted for age and sex, baseline HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I were inversely associated with HOMA-IR (r = -0.233, -0.134, and -0.230; all P < 0.001; n = 8,271) but not related to HbA1c (all P > 0.05; n = 9,795). ApoA-I was also inversely associated with HOMA-B (r = -0.063; P = 0.002; n = 8,271) adjusted for age, sex, and HOMA-IR. Prospectively, lower baseline HDL-C and HDL-C/apoA-I levels predicted greater uptake (per 1-SD lower: hazard ratio [HR] 1.13 [CI 1.07-1.19], P < 0.001; and HR 1.16 [CI 1.10-1.23], P < 0.001, respectively) and earlier uptake (median 12.9 and 24.0 months, respectively, for quartile 1 vs. quartile 4; both P < 0.01) of OHAs and insulin, with no difference in HbA1c thresholds for initiation (P = 0.87 and P = 0.81). Controlling for HOMA-IR and triglycerides lessened both associations, but HDL-C/apoA-I remained significant.

CONCLUSIONS: HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I were associated with concurrent insulin resistance but not HbA1c. However, lower HDL-C and HDL-C/apoA-I predicted greater and earlier need for pharmacologic glucose control.

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An increasingly older population will most likely lead to greater demands on the health care system, as older age is associated with an increased risk of having acute and chronic conditions. The number of diseases or disabilities is not the only marker of the amount of health care utilized, as persons may seek hospitalization without a disease and/or illness that requires hospital healthcare. Hospitalization may pose a severe risk to older persons, as exposure to the hospital environment may lead to increased risks of iatrogenic disorders, confusion, falls and nosocomial infections, i.e., disorders that may involve unnecessary suffering and lead to serious consequences. Aims: The overall aim of this thesis was to describe and explore individual trajectories of cognitive development in relation to hospitalization and risk factors for hospitalization among older persons living in different accommodations in Sweden and to explore older persons' reasons for being transferred to a hospital. Methods: The study designs were longitudinal, prospective and descriptive, and both quantitative and qualitative methods were used. Specifically, latent growth curve modelling was used to assess the association of cognitive development with hospitalization. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyse factors associated with hospitalization risk overtime. In addition, an explorative descriptive design was used to explore how home health care patients experienced and perceived their decision to seek hospital care. Results: The most common reasons for hospitalization were cardiovascular diseases, which caused more than one-quarter of first hospitalizations among the persons living in ordinary housing and nursing home residents (NHRs). The persons who had been hospitalized had a lower mean level of cognitive performance in general cognition, verbal, spatial/fluid, memory and processing speed abilities compared to those who had not been hospitalized. Significantly steeper declines in general cognition, spatial/fluid and processing speed abilities were observed among the persons who had been hospitalized. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that the number of diseases, number of drugs used, having experienced a fall and being assessed as malnourished according to the Mini Nutritional Assessment scale were related to an increased hospitalization risk among the NHRs. Among the older persons living in ordinary housing, the risk factors for hospitalization were related to marital status, i.e., unmarried persons and widows/widowers had a decreased hospitalization risk. In addition, among social factors, receipt of support from relatives was related to an increased hospitalization risk, while receipt of support from friends was related to a decreased risk. The number of illnesses was not associated with the hospitalization risk for older persons in any age group or for those of either sex, when controlling for other variables. The older persons who received home health care described different reasons for their decisions to seek hospital care. The underlying theme of the home health care patients’ perceptions of their transfer to a hospital involved trust in hospitals. This trust was shared by the home health care patients, their relatives and the home health care staff, according to the patients. Conclusions: This thesis revealed that middle-aged and older persons who had been hospitalized exhibited a steeper decline in cognition. Specifically, spatial/fluid, processing speed, and general cognitive abilities were affected. The steeper decline in cognition among those who had been hospitalized remained even after controlling for comorbidities. The most common causes of hospitalization among the older persons living in ordinary housing and in nursing homes were cardiovascular diseases, tumours and falls. Not only health-related factors, such as the number of diseases, number of drugs used, and being assessed as malnourished, but also social factors and marital status were related to the hospitalization risk among the older persons living in ordinary housing and in nursing homes. Some risk factors associated with hospitalization differed not only between the men and women but also among the different age groups. The information provided in this thesis could be applied in care settings by professionals who interact with older persons before they decide to seek hospital care. To meet the needs of an older population, health care systems need to offer the proper health care at the most appropriate level, and they need to increase integration and coordination among health care delivered by different care services.

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A capacidade de adaptação e rapidez de decisão, distinguem as empresas que melhor conseguem competir e crescer no mercado global. Para atuar rapidamente, as organizações precisam de sistemas de informação cada vez mais eficazes, surgindo recentemente uma nova função considerada fundamental para as empresas, que é a de Cientista de Dados. É neste contexto e para responder aos desafios atuais e futuros, que surgem sistemas de informação cada vez mais avançados, suportados por modelos de análise e visualização estatística. Este trabalho consiste em criar uma metodologia de desenvolvimento de modelos de previsão de incumprimento e perfil do consumidor, aplicado a cartões de crédito, com base numa exposição de análise comportamental, utilizando técnicas de análise de sobrevivência. São definidas técnicas de tratamento dos dados recolhidos, estimado modelo não-paramétrico de Kaplan-Meier e vários modelos de Cox de riscos proporcionais. Com recurso à curva ROC, dependente do tempo, à AUC e ao índice de Gini, conclui-se que o modelo final apresenta um desempenho positivo para identificar os clientes em situação de incumprimento ou com propensão a incumprir.

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Introduction: Evidence suggests a positive association between quality of life (QOL). and overall survival(OS). among metastatic breast cancer (BC). patients, although the relationship in early-stage BC is unclear. This work examines the association between QOL and OS following a diagnosis of early-stage BC. ----- Methods: A population-based sample of Queensland women (n=287). with early-stage, invasive, unilateral BC, were prospectively observed for a median of 6.6 years. QOL was assessed at six and 18 months post-diagnosis using the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy, Breast FACT-B+4. questionnaire. Raw scores for the FACT-B+4 scales were computed and individuals were categorised according to whether QOL declined, remained stable or improved over time. OS was measured from the date of diagnosis to the date of death or was censored at the date of last follow-up. Risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). for the association between QOL and OS were obtained using Cox proportional hazards survival models adjusted for confounding characteristics. ----- Results: A total of 27 (9.4%). women died during the follow-up period. Three baseline QOL scales (emotional, general and overall QOL) were significantly associated with OS, with RRs ranging between 0.89 95% CI: 0.81, 0.98; P=0.01. and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96, 0.99; P=0.03),indicating a 2%-11% reduced risk of death for every one unit increase in QOL. When QOL was categorised according to changes between six and 18 months post-diagnosis, analyses showed that for those who experienced declines in functional and physical QOL, risk of death increased by two- (95% CI: 1.43, 12.52; P<0.01) and four-fold (95% CI: 1.15, 7.19; P=0.02), respectively. Conclusions: This work indicates that specific QOL scales at six months post-diagnosis, and changes in certain QOL scales over the subsequent 12-month period (as measured by the FACT-B+4), are associated with overall survival in women with early-stage breast cancer.

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Objective To describe quality of life (QOL) over a 12-month period among women with breast cancer, consider the association between QOL and overall survival (OS), and explore characteristics associated with QOL declines. Methods A population-based sample of Australian women (n=287) with invasive, unilateral breast cancer (Stage I+), was observed prospectively for a median of 6.6 years. QOL was assessed at six, 12 and 18 months post-diagnosis, using the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy, Breast (FACT-B+4) questionnaire. Raw scores for the FACT-B+4 and subscales were computed and individuals were categorized according to whether QOL declined, remained stable or improved between six and 18 months. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards survival methods were used to estimate OS and its associations with QOL. Logistic regression models identified factors associated with QOL decline. Results Within FACT-B+4 sub-scales, between 10% and 23% of women showed declines in QOL. Following adjustment for established prognostic factors, emotional wellbeing and FACT-B+4 scores at six months post-diagnosis were associated with OS (p<0.05). Declines in physical (p<0.01) or functional (p=0.02) well-being between six and 18 months post-diagnosis were also associated significantly with OS. Receiving multiple forms of adjuvant treatment, a perception of not handling stress well and reporting one or more other major life events at six months post-diagnosis were factors associated with declines in QOL in multivariable analyses. Conclusions Interventions targeted at preventing QOL declines may ultimately improve quantity as well as quality of life following breast cancer.

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Almost 10% of all births are preterm and 2.2% are stillbirths globally. Recent research has suggested that environmental factors may be a contributory cause to these adverse birth outcomes. The authors examined the relationship between ambient temperature and preterm birth and stillbirth in Brisbane, Australia between 2005 and 2009 (n = 101,870). They used a Cox proportional hazard model with live birth and stillbirth as competing risks. They also examined if there were periods of the pregnancy where exposure to high temperatures had a greater effect. Exposure to higher ambient temperatures during pregnancy increased the risk of stillbirth. The hazard ratio for stillbirth was 0.3 at 12 °C relative to the reference temperature at 21 °C. The temperature effect was greatest for fetuses of less than 36 weeks of gestation. There was an association between higher temperature and shorter gestation, as the hazard ratio for live birth was 0.96 at 15 °C and 1.02 at 25 °C. This effect was greatest at later gestational ages. The results provide strong evidence of an association between increased temperature and increased risk of stillbirth and shorter gestations.

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Purpose: Colorectal cancer patients diagnosed with stage I or II disease are not routinely offered adjuvant chemotherapy following resection of the primary tumor. However, up to 10% of stage I and 30% of stage II patients relapse within 5 years of surgery from recurrent or metastatic disease. The aim of this study was to determine if tumor-associated markers could detect disseminated malignant cells and so identify a subgroup of patients with early-stage colorectal cancer that were at risk of relapse. Experimental Design: We recruited consecutive patients undergoing curative resection for early-stage colorectal cancer. Immunobead reverse transcription-PCR of five tumor-associated markers (carcinoembryonic antigen, laminin γ2, ephrin B4, matrilysin, and cytokeratin 20) was used to detect the presence of colon tumor cells in peripheral blood and within the peritoneal cavity of colon cancer patients perioperatively. Clinicopathologic variables were tested for their effect on survival outcomes in univariate analyses using the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was done to determine whether detection of tumor cells was an independent prognostic marker for disease relapse. Results: Overall, 41 of 125 (32.8%) early-stage patients were positive for disseminated tumor cells. Patients who were marker positive for disseminated cells in post-resection lavage samples showed a significantly poorer prognosis (hazard ratio, 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-19.6; P = 0.002), and this was independent of other risk factors. Conclusion: The markers used in this study identified a subgroup of early-stage patients at increased risk of relapse post-resection for primary colorectal cancer. This method may be considered as a new diagnostic tool to improve the staging and management of colorectal cancer. © 2006 American Association for Cancer Research.

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Background The adverse consequences of lymphedema following breast cancer in relation to physical function and quality of life are clear; however, its potential relationship with survival has not been investigated. Our purpose was to determine the prevalence of lymphedema and associated upper-body symptoms at 6 years following breast cancer and to examine the prognostic significance of lymphedema with respect to overall 6-year survival (OS). Methods and Results A population-based sample of Australian women (n=287) diagnosed with invasive, unilateral breast cancer was followed for a median of 6.6 years and prospectively assessed for lymphedema (using bioimpedance spectroscopy [BIS], sum of arm circumferences [SOAC], and self-reported arm swelling), a range of upper-body symptoms, and vital status. OS was measured from date of diagnosis to date of death or last follow-up. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to calculate OS and Cox proportional hazards models quantified the risk associated with lymphedema. Approximately 45% of women had reported at least one moderate to extreme symptom at 6.6 years postdiagnosis, while 34% had shown clinical evidence of lymphedema, and 48% reported arm swelling at least once since baseline assessment. A total of 27 (9.4%) women died during the follow-up period, and lymphedema, diagnosed by BIS or SOAC between 6–18 months postdiagnosis, predicted mortality (BIS: HR=2.5; 95% CI: 0.9, 6.8, p=0.08; SOAC: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.1, 8.7, p=0.04). There was no association (HR=1.2; 95% CI: 0.5, 2.6, p=0.68) between self-reported arm swelling and OS. Conclusions These findings suggest that lymphedema may influence survival following breast cancer treatment and warrant further investigation in other cancer cohorts and explication of a potential underlying biology.

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There are an increasing number of compression systems available for treatment of venous leg ulcers and limited evidence on the relative effectiveness of these systems. The purpose of this study was to conduct a randomised controlled trial to compare the effectiveness of a 4-layer compression bandage system with Class 3 compression hosiery on healing and quality of life in patients with venous leg ulcers. Data were collected from 103 participants on demographics, health, ulcer status, treatments, pain, depression and quality of life for 24 weeks. After 24 weeks, 86% of the 4-layer bandage group and 77% of the hosiery group were healed (p=0.24). Median time to healing for the bandage group was 10 weeks, in comparison to 14 weeks for the hosiery group (p=0.018). Cox proportional hazards regression found participants in the 4-layer system were 2.1 times (95% CI 1.2–3.5) more likely to heal than those in hosiery, while longer ulcer duration, larger ulcer area and higher depression scores significantly delayed healing. No differences between groups were found in quality of life or pain measures. Findings indicate these systems were equally effective in healing patients by 24 weeks, however a 4-layer system may produce a more rapid response.