Testing the TASP: An Experimental Investigation of Learning in Games with Unstable Equilibria

We report experiments designed to test between Nash equilibria that are stable and unstable under learning. The “TASP” (Time Average of the Shapley Polygon) gives a precise prediction about what happens when there is divergence from equilibrium under fictitious play like learning processes. We use two 4 x 4 games each with a unique mixed Nash equilibrium; one is stable and one is unstable under learning. Both games are versions of Rock-Paper-Scissors with the addition of a fourth strategy, Dumb. Nash equilibrium places a weight of 1/2 on Dumb in both games, but the TASP places no weight on Dumb when the equilibrium is unstable. We also vary the level of monetary payoffs with higher payoffs predicted to increase instability. We find that the high payoff unstable treatment differs from the others. Frequency of Dumb is lower and play is further from Nash than in the other treatments. That is, we find support for the comparative statics prediction of learning theory, although the frequency of Dumb is substantially greater than zero in the unstable treatments.

Estimating United States Phillips Curves With Expectations Consistent With The Statistical Process Of Inflation

‘Modern’ Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated, or near integrated, process. However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies and so cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agents believe inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories then they are making systematic errors concerning the statistical process of inflation. An alternative theory of the Phillips curve is developed that is consistent with the ‘true’ statistical process of inflation. It is demonstrated that United States inflation data is consistent with the alternative theory but not with the existing ‘modern’ theories.

'Modern' Phillips Curves and the Implications For The Statistical Process of Inflation

'Modern' theories of the Phillips curve imply that inflation is an integrated, or near integrated process. This paper explains this implication and why these 'modern' theories are logically inconsistent with what is commonly known about the statistical process of inflation.

How multiple repetitions influence the processing of self-, famous and unknown names and faces: an ERP study.

Because we live in an extremely complex social environment, people require the ability to memorize hundreds or thousands of social stimuli. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of multiple repetitions on the processing of names and faces varying in terms of pre-experimental familiarity. We measured both behavioral and electrophysiological responses to self-, famous and unknown names and faces in three phases of the experiment (in every phase, each type of stimuli was repeated a pre-determined number of times). We found that the negative brain potential in posterior scalp sites observed approximately 170 ms after the stimulus onset (N170) was insensitive to pre-experimental familiarity but showed slight enhancement with each repetition. The negative wave in the inferior-temporal regions observed at approximately 250 ms (N250) was affected by both pre-experimental (famous>unknown) and intra-experimental familiarity (the more repetitions, the larger N250). In addition, N170 and N250 for names were larger in the left inferior-temporal region, whereas right-hemispheric or bilateral patterns of activity for faces were observed. The subsequent presentations of famous and unknown names and faces were also associated with higher amplitudes of the positive waveform in the central-parietal sites analyzed in the 320-900 ms time-window (P300). In contrast, P300 remained unchanged after the subsequent presentations of self-name and self-face. Moreover, the P300 for unknown faces grew more quickly than for unknown names. The latter suggests that the process of learning faces is more effective than learning names, possibly because faces carry more semantic information.

Evolutionary ecology of learning: insights from fruit flies

Ecologically and evolutionarily oriented research on learning has traditionally been carried out on vertebrates and bees. While less sophisticated than those animals, fruit flies (Drosophila) are capable of several forms of learning, and have an advantage of a short generation time, which makes them an ideal system for experimental evolution studies. This review summarizes the insights into evolutionary questions about learning gained in the last decade from evolutionary experiments on Drosophila. These experiments demonstrate that Drosophila have the genetic potential to evolve substantially improved learning performance in ecologically relevant learning tasks. In at least one set of selected populations the improved learning generalized to another task than that used to impose selection, involving a different behavior, different stimuli, and a different sensory channel for the aversive reinforcement. This improvement in learning ability was associated with reduction in other fitness-related traits, such as larval competitive ability and lifespan, pointing out to evolutionary trade-offs of improved learning. These trade-offs were confirmed by other evolutionary experiments where reduction in learning performance was observed as a correlated response to selection for tolerance to larval nutritional stress or for delayed aging. Such trade-offs could be one reason why fruit flies have not fully used up their evolutionary potential for learning ability. Finally, another evolutionary experiment with Drosophila provided the first direct evidence for the long-standing ideas that learning can under some circumstances accelerate and in other slow down genetically-based evolutionary change. These results demonstrate the usefulness of fruit flies as a model system to address evolutionary questions about learning.

Monitoring the domiciliary and peridomiciliary invasion process of Triatoma rubrovaria in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

The presence of Triatoma rubrovaria in Brazil has only been confirmed in the States of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul (RS), where it is found naturally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. In the wild environment it occurs in rocky habitats and has an eclectic diet, feeding from cockroaches, reptiles and mammals. Data from the Chagas Disease Control Program obtained by the Fundação Nacional de Saúde, between 1975 and 1997, indicate a growing domiciliary and peridomiciliary invasion of T. rubrovaria in RS, where it has become the most frequently Triatominae species captured in this state since the control of Triatoma infestans. In order to monitor this process, we analyzed collection data derived from 22 years of control campaigns against T. infestans. Collection data for triatomines from domestic habitats show an inverse relationship, with high numbers of T. infestans and low numbers of T. rubrovaria during 1976-1987, compared to the following ten years, 1986-1997, when the number of T. infestans dropped drastically and that of T. rubrovaria increased. There are no consistent indications of intradomiciliary colonization by T. rubrovaria, since only low numbers of nymphs have been captured in the intradomiciliary ecotopes. Nevertheless, this species appears to have preadaptive characteristics for anthropic ecotopes, and should be kept under constant epidemiological surveillance.

Modelling the mechanical aspects of the curing process of magneto-sensitive elastomeric materials

In this paper, a phenomenologically motivated magneto-mechanically coupled finite strain elastic framework for simulating the curing process of polymers in the presence of a magnetic load is proposed. This approach is in line with previous works by Hossain and co-workers on finite strain curing modelling framework for the purely mechanical polymer curing (Hossain et al., 2009b). The proposed thermodynamically consistent approach is independent of any particular free energy function that may be used for the fully-cured magneto-sensitive polymer modelling, i.e. any phenomenological or micromechanical-inspired free energy can be inserted into the main modelling framework. For the fabrication of magneto-sensitive polymers, micron-size ferromagnetic particles are mixed with the liquid matrix material in the uncured stage. The particles align in a preferred direction with the application of a magnetic field during the curing process. The polymer curing process is a complex (visco) elastic process that transforms a fluid to a solid with time. Such transformation process is modelled by an appropriate constitutive relation which takes into account the temporal evolution of the material parameters appearing in a particular energy function. For demonstration in this work, a frequently used energy function is chosen, i.e. the classical Mooney-Rivlin free energy enhanced by coupling terms. Several representative numerical examples are demonstrated that prove the capability of our approach to correctly capture common features in polymers undergoing curing processes in the presence of a magneto-mechanical coupled load.

Characterization of the gene expression related to the process of DNA damage tolerance in Schistosoma mansoni

In the course of its complex life cycle, the parasite Schistosoma mansoni need to adapt to distinct environments, and consequently is exposed to various DNA damaging agents. The Schistosoma genome sequencing initiative has uncovered sequences from genes and transcripts related to the process of DNA damage tolerance as the enzymes UBC13, MMS2, and RAD6. In the present work, we evaluate the importance of this process in different stages of the life cycle of this parasite. The importance is evidenced by expression and phylogenetic profiles, which show the conservation of this pathway from protozoa to mammalians on evolution.

Understanding the development of the ESDP: Perspectives and insights from historical institutionalism and theories of learning

How can we best understand the emergence of the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP)? This paper applies the theories of historical institutionalism and experiential learning to offer a dynamic conceptualisation of moves towards an ESDP which highlights some of the causal factors that a more temporally-restricted analysis would miss. It firstly shows how the institutional and functional expansion of European Political Cooperation (EPC) over the course of the 1970s and 80s gave rise to a context in which the development of a security and defence dimension came to be viewed as more logical and even necessary. It then goes on to analyse some of the external factors (in the form of actors, events and institutions) that further pushed in this direction and proved to influence the policy’s subsequent evolution. The paper is therefore intended to act as a first-step to understanding the ESDP’s development from this perspective.