A mathematical model of HIV transmission in NSW prisons

A mathematical model was developed to estimate HIV incidence in NSW prisons. Data included: duration of imprisonment; number of inmates using each needle; lower and higher number of shared injections per IDU per week; proportion of IDUs using bleach; efficacy of bleach; HIV prevalence and probability of infection. HIV prevalence in IDUs in prison was estimated to have risen from 0.8 to 5.7% (12.2%) over 180 weeks when using lower (and higher) values for frequency of shared injections. The estimated minimum (and maximum) number of IDU inmates infected with HIV in NSW prisons was 38 (and 152) in 1993 according to the model. These figures require confirmation by seroincidence studies. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

New techniques for biopsy and culture of human olfactory epithelial neurons

Objective: To improve the success of culturing olfactory neurons from human nasal mucosa by investigating the intranasal distribution of the olfactory epithelium and devising new techniques for growing human olfactory epithelium in vitro. Design: Ninety-seven biopsy specimens were obtained from 33 individuals, aged 21 to 74 years, collected from 6 regions of the nasal cavity. Each biopsy specimen was bisected, and 1 piece was processed for immunohistochemistry or electron microscopy while the other piece was dissected further for explant culture. Four culture techniques were performed, including whole explants and explanted biopsy slices. Five days after plating, neuronal differentiation was induced by means of a medium that contained basic fibroblast growth factor. After another 5 days, cultures were processed for immunocytochemical analysis. Results: The probability of finding olfactory epithelium in a biopsy specimen ranged from 30% to 76%, depending on its location. The dorsoposterior regions of the nasal septum and the superior turbinate provided the highest probability, but, surprisingly, olfactory epithelium was also found anteriorly and ventrally on both septum and turbinates. A new method of culturing the olfactory epithelium was devised. This slice culture technique improved the success rate for generating olfactory neurons from 10% to 90%. Conclusions: This study explains and overcomes most of the variability in the success in observing neurogenesis in cultures of adult human olfactory epithelium. The techniques presented here make the human olfactory epithelium a useful model for clinical research into certain olfactory dysfunctions and a model for the causes of neurodevelopmental and neurodegenerative diseases.

Applying the results of a systematic review in general practice

Objective: To assess how general practitioners might interpret and apply the results of a systematic review relevant to general practice. Design: Cross-sectional postal survey of general practitioners in August 1997. Participants: 51 general practitioners in the Southern Division of General Practice in Adelaide and 11 professors or heads of departments of general practice. Main outcome measures:Extent to which comments on the implications for practice and implications for research coincided with the evidence presented in a systematic review of antibiotics for the treatment of acute otitis media in children; and reported probability that respondents would prescribe antibiotics in three brief case scenarios. Results: There was considerable variation in the comments made by general practitioners on the implications of the review for clinical practice. After reading the review, respondents with training in critical appraisal were more likely to state that children with acute otitis media would usually recover spontaneously and reported a lower probability of prescribing antibiotics in two of the three case scenarios. Conclusions: Providing systematic reviews is not sufficient for the results of such evidence to be translated:into clinical practice. There is an association between critical appraisal skills and the application of evidence-based practice.

Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Inhibition of transmitter release and long-term depression in the avian hippocampus

Long-term depression has recently been shown to occur at glutamatergic synapses in the avian hippocampus and requires activation of calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II in the nerve terminal. Here using whole cell and intracellular recordings from brain slices, we show that the N-type calcium channel contributes significantly to glutamate release in the avian hippocampus. Activation of the metabotrobic gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA)(B) receptor by the specific agonist baclofen blocks synaptic transmission. The action of baclofen was associated with a change in paired pulse facilitation indicating that it resulted from a reduction in the probability of transmitter release, In contrast, no change in paired pulse facilitation was observed following the induction of long-term depression. These results show that activation of GABA(B) receptors and long-term depression reduce transmitter release by distinct mechanisms. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

H-reflex modulation during passive lengthening and shortening of the human triceps surae

1. The present study investigated the effects of lengthening and shortening actions on IT-reflex amplitude. H-reflexes were evoked in the soleus (SOL) and medial gastroenemius (MG) of human subject, during passive isometric, lengthening and shortening actions performed at angular velocities of 0, +/-2, +/-5 and +/- 15 deg s(-1). 2. H-reflex amplitude, in froth SOL and MG were significantly depressed during passive lengthening actions and facilitated during passive shortening actions, when compared with the isometric R-reflex amplitude. 3. Four experiments were performed in which the latencies front the onset of movement to delivery of the stimulus were altered. Passive H-reflex modulation during lengthening actions was found tee begin at latencies of less than 60 ms suggesting that this inhibition was due to peripheral and/or spinal mechanisms. 4. It is postulated that, the H-reflex modulation seen in the present study is related to the tunic discharge of muscle spindle afferents and the consequent effects of transmission within the la pathway. Inhibition of the H-reflex at less than 60 ms after the onset of muscle lengthening may he attributed to several mechanisms, which cannot be distinguished using the current protocol. These may include the inability to evoke volleys in la fibres that are refractory following muscle spindle discharge during; rapid muscle lengthening, a reduced probability of transmitter release front the presynaptic terminal (homosynaptic post.-activation depression) and presynaptic inhibition of la afferents from plantar flexor agonists. Short latency facilitation of the H-reflex may be attributed to temporal summation of excitatory postsynaptic potentials arising from muscle spindle afferents during rapid muscle lengthening. At longer latencies, presynaptic inhibition of Ia afferents cannot be excluded as a potential inhibitory mechanism.

The coincidences of time travel

In this paper I consider two objections raised by Nick Smith (1997) to an argument against the probability of time travel given by Paul Horwich (1995, 1987). Horwich argues that time travel leads to inexplicable and improbable coincidences. I argue that one of Smith's objections fails, but that another is correct. I also consider an instructive way to defend Horwich's argument against the second of Smith's objections, but show that it too fails. I conclude that unless there is something faulty in the conception of explanation implicit in Horwich's argument, time travel presents us with nothing that is inexplicable.

Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Male-by-female interactions influence fertilization success and mediate the benefits of polyandry in the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma

Numerous studies have reported that females benefit from mating with multiple males (polyandry) by minimizing the probability of fertilization by genetically incompatible sperm. Few, however, have directly attributed variation in female reproductive success to the fertilizing capacity of sperm. In this study we report on two experiments that investigated the benefits of polyandry and the interacting effects of males and females at fertilization in the free-spawning Australian sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma. In the first experiment we used a paired (split clutch) experimental design and compared fertilization rates within female egg clutches under polyandry (eggs exposed to the sperm from two males simultaneously) and monandry (eggs from the same female exposed to sperm from each of the same two males separately). Our analysis revealed a significant fertilization benefit of polyandry and strong interacting effects of males and females at fertilization. Further analysis of these data strongly suggested that the higher rates of fertilization in the polyandry treatment were due to an overrepresentation of fertilizations due to the most compatible male. To further explore the interacting effects of males and females at fertilization we performed a second factorial experiment in which four mates were crossed with two females (in all eight combinations). In addition to confirming that fertilization success is influenced by male X female interactions, this latter experiment revealed that both sexes contributed significant variance to the observed patterns of fertilization. Taken together, these findings highlight the importance of male X female interactions at fertilization and suggest that polyandry will enable females to reduce the cost of fertilization by incompatible gametes.

Listening to the Whispers of Matter Through Arabic Hermeticism: New Studies on the Book of the Treasure of Alexander

The Jabirian Corpus refers to the K. Thahirat Al-`Iskandar, ""The Book of the Treasure of Alexander"" (hereafter BTA), as one of several forgeries suggesting that alchemical secrets were hidden in inscriptions in various places. The book was neglected until 1926, when Julius Ruska discussed it in his work on the Emerald Tablet, placing the BTA within the literature related to the development of Arabic alchemy. His preliminary study became an essential reference and encouraged many scholars to work on the BTA in the following decades. Some years ago, we completed the first translation of the BTA into a Western language. The work was based on the acephalous Escorial manuscript, which we identified as a fourteenth-century copy of the BTA. This manuscript is peculiar, as part of it is encoded. After finishing our translation, we started to establish the text of the BTA. At present, the text is in process of fixation-to be followed by textual criticism-and has been the main focus of a thorough study of ours on medieval hermeticism and alchemy. A sample of the work currently in progress is presented in this paper: an analysis of the variations between different manuscripts along with a study and English translation of its alchemical chapter.

Myocardial scintigraphy and clinical stratification as predictors of events in renal transplant candidates

Background: We tested the hypothesis that the universal application of myocardial scanning with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) would result in better risk stratification in renal transplant candidates (RTC) compared with SPECT being restricted to patients who, in addition to renal disease, had other clinical risk factors. Methods: RTCs (n=363) underwent SPECT and clinical risk stratification according to the American Society of Transplantation (AST) algorithm and were followed up until a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) or death. Results: Of the 363 patients, 79 patients (22%) had an abnormal SPECT scan and 270 (74%) were classified as high risk. Both methods correctly identified patients with increased probability of MACE. However, clinical stratification performed better (sensitivity and negative predictive value 99% and 99% vs. 25% and 87%, respectively). High-risk patients with an abnormal SPECT scan had a modest increased risk of events (log-rank = 0.03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.02-1.82). Eighty-six patients underwent coronary angiography, and coronary artery disease (CAD) was found in 60%. High-risk patients with CAD had an increased incidence of events (log-rank = 0.008; HR=3.85; 95% CI, 1.46-13.22), but in those with an abnormal SPECT scan, the incidence of events was not influenced by CAD (log-rank = 0.23). Forty-six patients died. Clinical stratification, but not SPECT, correlated with the probability of death (log-rank = 0.02; HR=3.25; 95% CI, 1.31-10.82). Conclusion: SPECT should be restricted to high-risk patients. Moreover, in contrast to SPECT, the AST algorithm was also useful for predicting death by any cause in RTCs and for selecting patients for invasive coronary testing.

The Absence of Coronary Calcification Does Not Exclude Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease or the Need for Revascularization in Patients Referred for Conventional Coronary Angiography

Objectives This study was designed to evaluate whether the absence of coronary calcium could rule out >= 50% coronary stenosis or the need for revascularization. Background The latest American Heart Association guidelines suggest that a calcium score (CS) of zero might exclude the need for coronary angiography among symptomatic patients. Methods A substudy was made of the CORE64 (Coronary Evaluation Using Multi-Detector Spiral Computed Tomography Angiography Using 64 Detectors) multicenter trial comparing the diagnostic performance of 64-detector computed tomography to conventional angiography. Patients clinically referred for conventional angiography were asked to undergo a CS scan up to 30 days before. Results In all, 291 patients were included, of whom 214 (73%) were male, and the mean age was 59.3 +/- 10.0 years. A total of 14 (5%) patients had low, 218 (75%) had intermediate, and 59 (20%) had high pre-test probability of obstructive coronary artery disease. The overall prevalence of >= 50% stenosis was 56%. A total of 72 patients had CS = 0, among whom 14 (19%) had at least 1 >= 50% stenosis. The overall sensitivity for CS = 0 to predict the absence of >= 50% stenosis was 45%, specificity was 91%, negative predictive value was 68%, and positive predictive value was 81%. Additionally, revascularization was performed in 9 (12.5%) CS = 0 patients within 30 days of the CS. From a total of 383 vessels without any coronary calcification, 47 (12%) presented with >= 50% stenosis; and from a total of 64 totally occluded vessels, 13 (20%) had no calcium. Conclusions The absence of coronary calcification does not exclude obstructive stenosis or the need for revascularization among patients with high enough suspicion of coronary artery disease to be referred for coronary angiography, in contrast with the published recommendations. Total coronary occlusion frequently occurs in the absence of any detectable calcification. (Coronary Evaluation Using Multi-Detector Spiral Computed Tomography Angiography Using 64 Detectors [CORE-64]; NCT00738218) (J Am Coll Cardiol 2010;55:627-34) (C) 2010 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation

Distribution of an asymmetrical copepod, Hatschekia plectropomi, on the gills of Plectropomus leopardus

Hatschekia plectropomi, an ectoparasitic copepod found on the gills, infected Plectropomus leopardus from Heron Island Reef with 100% prevalence (n = 32) and a mean +/- S.E. infection intensity of 131.9 +/- 22.1. The distribution of 4222 adult female parasites across 32 individual host fish was investigated at several organizational levels ranging from the level of holobranch pairs to that of individual filaments. Parasites demonstrated a site preference for the two central holobranchs (2 and 3). Along the lengths of hemibranchs, filaments near the dorsal and ventral ends and those in the proximity of the bend region were rarely occupied. The probability of coming into contact with a suitable attachment site and the ability to withstand ventilation forces at that site were proposed as the major factors affecting distribution. Two H. plectropomi morphotypes were identified based on the direction of body curvature. Regardless of morphotype, 99.9% of individuals were attached such that the convex side of the body was oriented towards the oncoming ventilating water currents. Further, 93.3% of individuals attached to the posterior faces of filaments, leading to a predictable pattern of attachment for this species. It is suggested that the direction of body curvature develops in response to the direction of the ventilating water currents. (c) 2006 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.