906 resultados para Probabilistic estimation
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The objectives of this work were: (1) to identify an isotherm model to relate the contaminant contents in the gas phase with those in the solid and non-aqueous liquid phases; (2) to develop a methodology for the estimation of the contaminant distribution in the different phases of the soil; and (3) to evaluate the influence of soil water content on the contaminant distribution in soil. For sandy soils with negligible contents of clay and natural organic matter, contaminated with benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, trichloroethylene (TCE), and perchloroethylene (PCE), it was concluded that: (1) Freundlich’s model showed to be adequate to relate the contaminant contents in the gas phase with those in the solid and non-aqueous liquid phases; (2) the distribution of the contaminants in the different phases present in the soil could be estimated with differences lower than 10% for 83% of the cases; and (3) an increase of the soil water content led to a decrease of the amount of contaminant in the solid and non-aqueous liquid phases, increasing the amount in the other phases.
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This study modeled the impact on freshwater ecosystems of pharmaceuticals detected in biosolids following application on agricultural soils. The detected sulfonamides and hydrochlorothiazide displayed comparatively moderate retention in solid matrices and, therefore, higher transfer fractions from biosolids to the freshwater compartment. However, the residence times of these pharmaceuticals in freshwater were estimated to be short due to abiotic degradation processes. The non-steroidal anti-inflammatory mefenamic acid had the highest environmental impact on aquatic ecosystems and warrants further investigation. The estimation of the solid-water partitioning coefficient was generally the most influential parameter of the probabilistic comparative impact assessment. These results and the modeling approach used in this study serve to prioritize pharmaceuticals in the research effort to assess the risks and the environmental impacts on aquatic biota of these emerging pollutants.
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In the last few years, the number of systems and devices that use voice based interaction has grown significantly. For a continued use of these systems, the interface must be reliable and pleasant in order to provide an optimal user experience. However there are currently very few studies that try to evaluate how pleasant is a voice from a perceptual point of view when the final application is a speech based interface. In this paper we present an objective definition for voice pleasantness based on the composition of a representative feature subset and a new automatic voice pleasantness classification and intensity estimation system. Our study is based on a database composed by European Portuguese female voices but the methodology can be extended to male voices or to other languages. In the objective performance evaluation the system achieved a 9.1% error rate for voice pleasantness classification and a 15.7% error rate for voice pleasantness intensity estimation.
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Radio link quality estimation in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) has a fundamental impact on the network performance and also affects the design of higher-layer protocols. Therefore, for about a decade, it has been attracting a vast array of research works. Reported works on link quality estimation are typically based on different assumptions, consider different scenarios, and provide radically different (and sometimes contradictory) results. This article provides a comprehensive survey on related literature, covering the characteristics of low-power links, the fundamental concepts of link quality estimation in WSNs, a taxonomy of existing link quality estimators, and their performance analysis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first survey tackling in detail link quality estimation in WSNs. We believe our efforts will serve as a reference to orient researchers and system designers in this area.
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Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Matemática, Estatística, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
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This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanical properties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the Probabilistic Model Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic models for the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.
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Os métodos clínicos que são realizados com recurso a tecnologias de imagiologia têm registado um aumento de popularidade nas últimas duas décadas. Os procedimentos tradicionais usados em cirurgia têm sido substituídos por métodos minimamente invasivos de forma a conseguir diminuir os custos associados e aperfeiçoar factores relacionados com a produtividade. Procedimentos clínicos modernos como a broncoscopia e a cardiologia são caracterizados por se focarem na minimização de acções invasivas, com os arcos em ‘C’ a adoptarem um papel relevante nesta área. Apesar de o arco em ‘C’ ser uma tecnologia amplamente utilizada no auxílio da navegação em intervenções minimamente invasivas, este falha na qualidade da informação fornecida ao cirurgião. A informação obtida em duas dimensões não é suficiente para proporcionar uma compreensão total da localização tridimensional da região de interesse, revelando-se como uma tarefa essencial o estabelecimento de um método que permita a aquisição de informação tridimensional. O primeiro passo para alcançar este objectivo foi dado ao definir um método que permite a estimativa da posição e orientação de um objecto em relação ao arco em ‘C’. De forma a realizar os testes com o arco em ‘C’, a geometria deste teve que ser inicialmente definida e a calibração do sistema feita. O trabalho desenvolvido e apresentado nesta tese foca-se num método que provou ser suficientemente sustentável e eficiente para se estabelecer como um ponto de partida no caminho para alcançar o objectivo principal: o desenvolvimento de uma técnica que permita o aperfeiçoamento da qualidade da informação adquirida com o arco em ‘C’ durante uma intervenção clínica.
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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies
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O trabalho apresentado centra-se na determinação dos custos de construção de condutas de pequenos e médios diâmetros em Polietileno de Alta Densidade (PEAD) para saneamento básico, tendo como base a metodologia descrita no livro Custos de Construção e Exploração – Volume 9 da série Gestão de Sistemas de Saneamento Básico, de Lencastre et al. (1994). Esta metodologia descrita no livro já referenciado, nos procedimentos de gestão de obra, e para tal foram estimados custos unitários de diversos conjuntos de trabalhos. Conforme Lencastre et al (1994), “esses conjuntos são referentes a movimentos de terras, tubagens, acessórios e respetivos órgãos de manobra, pavimentações e estaleiro, estando englobado na parte do estaleiro trabalhos acessórios correspondentes à obra.” Os custos foram obtidos analisando vários orçamentos de obras de saneamento, resultantes de concursos públicos de empreitadas recentemente realizados. Com vista a tornar a utilização desta metodologia numa ferramenta eficaz, foram organizadas folhas de cálculo que possibilitam obter estimativas realistas dos custos de execução de determinada obra em fases anteriores ao desenvolvimento do projeto, designadamente numa fase de preparação do plano diretor de um sistema ou numa fase de elaboração de estudos de viabilidade económico-financeiros, isto é, mesmo antes de existir qualquer pré-dimensionamento dos elementos do sistema. Outra técnica implementada para avaliar os dados de entrada foi a “Análise Robusta de Dados”, Pestana (1992). Esta metodologia permitiu analisar os dados mais detalhadamente antes de se formularem hipóteses para desenvolverem a análise de risco. A ideia principal é o exame bastante flexível dos dados, frequentemente antes mesmo de os comparar a um modelo probabilístico. Assim, e para um largo conjunto de dados, esta técnica possibilitou analisar a disparidade dos valores encontrados para os diversos trabalhos referenciados anteriormente. Com os dados recolhidos, e após o seu tratamento, passou-se à aplicação de uma metodologia de Análise de Risco, através da Simulação de Monte Carlo. Esta análise de risco é feita com recurso a uma ferramenta informática da Palisade, o @Risk, disponível no Departamento de Engenharia Civil. Esta técnica de análise quantitativa de risco permite traduzir a incerteza dos dados de entrada, representada através de distribuições probabilísticas que o software disponibiliza. Assim, para por em prática esta metodologia, recorreu-se às folhas de cálculo que foram realizadas seguindo a abordagem proposta em Lencastre et al (1994). A elaboração e a análise dessas estimativas poderão conduzir à tomada de decisões sobre a viabilidade da ou das obras a realizar, nomeadamente no que diz respeito aos aspetos económicos, permitindo uma análise de decisão fundamentada quanto à realização dos investimentos.
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In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years.
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Clustering ensemble methods produce a consensus partition of a set of data points by combining the results of a collection of base clustering algorithms. In the evidence accumulation clustering (EAC) paradigm, the clustering ensemble is transformed into a pairwise co-association matrix, thus avoiding the label correspondence problem, which is intrinsic to other clustering ensemble schemes. In this paper, we propose a consensus clustering approach based on the EAC paradigm, which is not limited to crisp partitions and fully exploits the nature of the co-association matrix. Our solution determines probabilistic assignments of data points to clusters by minimizing a Bregman divergence between the observed co-association frequencies and the corresponding co-occurrence probabilities expressed as functions of the unknown assignments. We additionally propose an optimization algorithm to find a solution under any double-convex Bregman divergence. Experiments on both synthetic and real benchmark data show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
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In this work, we present results from teleseismic P-wave receiver functions (PRFs) obtained in Portugal, Western Iberia. A dense seismic station deployment conducted between 2010 and 2012, in the scope of the WILAS project and covering the entire country, allowed the most spatially extensive probing on the bulk crustal seismic properties of Portugal up to date. The application of the H-κ stacking algorithm to the PRFs enabled us to estimate the crustal thickness (H) and the average crustal ratio of the P- and S-waves velocities V p/V s (κ) for the region. Observations of Moho conversions indicate that this interface is relatively smooth with the crustal thickness ranging between 24 and 34 km, with an average of 30 km. The highest V p/V s values are found on the Mesozoic-Cenozoic crust beneath the western and southern coastal domain of Portugal, whereas the lowest values correspond to Palaeozoic crust underlying the remaining part of the subject area. An average V p/V s is found to be 1.72, ranging 1.63-1.86 across the study area, indicating a predominantly felsic composition. Overall, we systematically observe a decrease of V p/V s with increasing crustal thickness. Taken as a whole, our results indicate a clear distinction between the geological zones of the Variscan Iberian Massif in Portugal, the overall shape of the anomalies conditioned by the shape of the Ibero-Armorican Arc, and associated Late Paleozoic suture zones, and the Meso-Cenozoic basin associated with Atlantic rifting stages. Thickened crust (30-34 km) across the studied region may be inherited from continental collision during the Paleozoic Variscan orogeny. An anomalous crustal thinning to around 28 km is observed beneath the central part of the Central Iberian Zone and the eastern part of South Portuguese Zone.
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A new algorithm for the velocity vector estimation of moving ships using Single Look Complex (SLC) SAR data in strip map acquisition mode is proposed. The algorithm exploits both amplitude and phase information of the Doppler decompressed data spectrum, with the aim to estimate both the azimuth antenna pattern and the backscattering coefficient as function of the look angle. The antenna pattern estimation provides information about the target velocity; the backscattering coefficient can be used for vessel classification. The range velocity is retrieved in the slow time frequency domain by estimating the antenna pattern effects induced by the target motion, while the azimuth velocity is calculated by the estimated range velocity and the ship orientation. Finally, the algorithm is tested on simulated SAR SLC data.
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This paper extents the by now classic sensor fusion complementary filter (CF) design, involving two sensors, to the case where three sensors that provide measurements in different bands are available. This paper shows that the use of classical CF techniques to tackle a generic three sensors fusion problem, based solely on their frequency domain characteristics, leads to a minimal realization, stable, sub-optimal solution, denoted as Complementary Filters3 (CF3). Then, a new approach for the estimation problem at hand is used, based on optimal linear Kalman filtering techniques. Moreover, the solution is shown to preserve the complementary property, i.e. the sum of the three transfer functions of the respective sensors add up to one, both in continuous and discrete time domains. This new class of filters are denoted as Complementary Kalman Filters3 (CKF3). The attitude estimation of a mobile robot is addressed, based on data from a rate gyroscope, a digital compass, and odometry. The experimental results obtained are reported.
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This paper presents an ankle mounted Inertial Navigation System (INS) used to estimate the distance traveled by a pedestrian. This distance is estimated by the number of steps given by the user. The proposed method is based on force sensors to enhance the results obtained from an INS. Experimental results have shown that, depending on the step frequency, the traveled distance error varies between 2.7% and 5.6%.