Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficacy of praziquantel against Schistosoma japonicum: field evaluation in an area with repeated chemotherapy compared with a newly identified endemic focus in Hunan, China

This study conducted in 1999/2000 was designed to evaluate the efficacy of praziquantel against Schistosoma japonicum in an area with repeated chemotherapy (Area A) compared with a newly identified endemic focus (Area B) in Hunan Province, China. The population size was 2015 and 2180 in Areas A and B, respectively, of which 1129 and 1298 subjects received stool examination. A total of 230 subjects were identified by the Kato-Katz technique (4 smears per person) as being infected with S. japonicum, 124 in Area A (prevalence 11 %) and 106 in Area B (prevalence 8.2%). They were treated with a single oral dose of praziquantel (40 mg/kg) in the non-transmission season. A follow-up stool examination was made 50 days after treatment. Among the 220 cases followed, 22 were found stool-egg-positive, with an overall cure rate of 90 %, and 99 % reduction of infection intensity (eggs per gram stool). No significant difference was found in cure rates between the 2 areas (89.7% vs 90.3%). The efficacy of the drug in the area with repeated chemotherapy was not significantly different from that in the newly identified endemic focus. This study, therefore, suggests that the efficacy of praziquantel against S. japonicum has not changed in the Dongting Lake region after more than 14 years of mass chemotherapy, and there is no evidence of tolerance or resistance of S. japonicum against praziquantel.

Power of the joint segregation analysis method for testing mixed major-gene and polygene inheritance models of quantitative traits

Understanding the genetic architecture of quantitative traits can greatly assist the design of strategies for their manipulation in plant-breeding programs. For a number of traits, genetic variation can be the result of segregation of a few major genes and many polygenes (minor genes). The joint segregation analysis (JSA) is a maximum-likelihood approach for fitting segregation models through the simultaneous use of phenotypic information from multiple generations. Our objective in this paper was to use computer simulation to quantify the power of the JSA method for testing the mixed-inheritance model for quantitative traits when it was applied to the six basic generations: both parents (P-1 and P-2), F-1, F-2, and both backcross generations (B-1 and B-2) derived from crossing the F-1 to each parent. A total of 1968 genetic model-experiment scenarios were considered in the simulation study to quantify the power of the method. Factors that interacted to influence the power of the JSA method to correctly detect genetic models were: (1) whether there were one or two major genes in combination with polygenes, (2) the heritability of the major genes and polygenes, (3) the level of dispersion of the major genes and polygenes between the two parents, and (4) the number of individuals examined in each generation (population size). The greatest levels of power were observed for the genetic models defined with simple inheritance; e.g., the power was greater than 90% for the one major gene model, regardless of the population size and major-gene heritability. Lower levels of power were observed for the genetic models with complex inheritance (major genes and polygenes), low heritability, small population sizes and a large dispersion of favourable genes among the two parents; e.g., the power was less than 5% for the two major-gene model with a heritability value of 0.3 and population sizes of 100 individuals. The JSA methodology was then applied to a previously studied sorghum data-set to investigate the genetic control of the putative drought resistance-trait osmotic adjustment in three crosses. The previous study concluded that there were two major genes segregating for osmotic adjustment in the three crosses. Application of the JSA method resulted in a change in the proposed genetic model. The presence of the two major genes was confirmed with the addition of an unspecified number of polygenes.

Comparative phylogeography of three rainforest-restricted lizards from mid-east Queensland

Several small isolates of rainforest situated on the central eastern coast of Australia are home to a rich herpetofauna, including four endemic species of leaftail geckos (Phyllurus spp.) and two skinks (Eulamprus spp.). To examine the extent and geographic pattern of historical subdivision among isolates, we assayed mtDNA variation in two species endemic to rainforests of this region (Phyllurus ossa and Eulamprus amplus) and, for comparison, a more widespread and less specialised lizard, Carlia rhomboidalis. There is a clear genetic signature of historical changes in population size and distribution in P. ossa that is consistent with Pleistocene (or earlier) rainforest contraction and subsequent expansion. Although more pronounced in the gecko, phylogeographic structure was congruent between E. amplus and P. ossa. In contrast to the saxicolous, rainforest-restricted P. ossa and E. amplus, the rainforest-generalist species, C. rhomboidalis, does not display strong geographic population structure. The differences in genetic population structure exhibited by the three species are consistent with species-specific differences in ecology.

An evaluation of two indices of red fox (Vulpes vulpes) abundance in an arid environment

The suitability of spotlight counts to index red fox abundance was assessed in an arid environment through a comparison with a scat deposition index (active attractant). In most cases there was a high degree of correlation between the two indices, suggesting that the spotlight counts were accurately documenting fluctuations in population size. However, the precision of the spotlight index was often low (c.v. = 0.07-0.46), suggesting that the technique may not allow the statistical detection of small changes in abundance. During periods when there was an influx of new individuals into the population, the seasonal scat index displayed a three-month time lag in documenting abundance while foxes accustomed themselves to the presence of the regular food supply. The level of precision of the scat index was also found to be relatively low (c.v. = 0.21-0.48). Nevertheless, further refinements of this technique may produce a suitable measure of fox abundance.

Impact numbers in health policy decisions

Objective: To outline the major methodological issues appropriate to the use of the population impact number (PIN) and the disease impact number (DIN) in health policy decision making. Design: Review of literature and calculation of PIN and DIN statistics in different settings. Setting: Previously proposed extensions to the number needed to treat (NNT): the DIN and the PIN, which give a population perspective to this measure. Main results: The PIN and DIN allow us to compare the population impact of different interventions either within the same disease or in different diseases or conditions. The primary studies used for relative risk estimates should have outcomes, time periods and comparison groups that are congruent and relevant to the local setting. These need to be combined with local data on disease rates and population size. Depending on the particular problem, the target may be disease incidence or prevalence and the effects of interest may be either the incremental impact or the total impact of each intervention. For practical application, it will be important to use sensitivity analyses to determine plausible intervals for the impact numbers. Conclusions: Attention to various methodological issues will permit the DIN and PIN to be used to assist health policy makers assign a population perspective to measures of risk.

Control of familial and renal cardiac diseases in English bull terriers: How to repair a damaged breed?

Control recommendations are presented for four genetic or familial diseases that cause significant morbidity and mortality in affected English Bull Terriers. Bull Terrier polycystic kidney disease is an autosomal dominant disease diagnosed by detecting a minimum of three renal cysts, with cysts present in both kidneys, and similarly affected family members to confirm the inherited nature of the cysts. Bull Terrier hereditary nephritis is an autosomal dominant disease diagnosed in otherwise normal animals with urinary protein: creatinine ratios persistently >0.3 and no significant urinary sediment, a family history of the disease, and characteristic glomerular basement membrane lesions. Mitral valve myxomatous degeneration and left ventricular outflow tract obstruction in Bull Terriers are familial diseases diagnosed by auscultating characteristic murmurs in affected animals. Excluding animals with these clinical signs from the breeding pool will reduce the prevalence rates of these diseases, however maintenance of an effective population size is also important. Providing breeders with information on genetics, including the risks associated with inbreeding and the benefits of outcrossing, is likely to improve canine breeding practices, thus increasing fitness and fecundity of these purebred dogs.

Mutation accumulation in Tetrahymena

Background - The rate and fitness effects of mutations are key in understanding the evolution of every species. Traditionally, these parameters are estimated in mutation accumulation experiments where replicate lines are propagated in conditions that allow mutations to randomly accumulate without the purging effect of natural selection. These experiments have been performed with many model organisms but we still lack empirical estimates of the rate and effects of mutation in the protists. Results - We performed a mutation accumulation (MA) experiment in Tetrahymena thermophila, a species that can reproduce sexually and asexually in nature, and measured both the mean decline and variance increase in fitness of 20 lines. The results obtained with T. thermophila were compared with T. pyriformis that is an obligate asexual species. We show that MA lines of T. thermophila go to extinction at a rate of 1.25 clonal extinctions per bottleneck. In contrast, populations of T. pyriformis show a much higher resistance to extinction. Variation in gene copy number is likely to be a key factor in explaining these results, and indeed we show that T. pyriformis has a higher mean copy number per cell than T. thermophila. From fitness measurements during the MA experiment, we infer a rate of mutation to copy number variation of 0.0333 per haploid MAC genome of T. thermophila and a mean effect against copy number variation of 0.16. A strong effect of population size in the rate of fitness decline was also found, consistent with the increased power of natural selection. Conclusions - The rate of clonal extinction measured for T. thermophila is characteristic of a mutational degradation and suggests that this species must undergo sexual reproduction to avoid the deleterious effects detected in the laboratory experiments. We also suggest that an increase in chromosomal copy number associated with the phenotypic assortment of amitotic divisions can provide an alternative mechanism to escape the deleterious effect of random chromosomal copy number variation in species like T. pyriformis that lack the resetting mechanism of sexual reproduction. Our results are relevant to the understanding of cell line longevity and senescence in ciliates.

Integrated Management of Childhood Illness: efficiency of primary health in Northeast Brazil

OBJECTIVE: The Integrated Management of Childhood Illness is a strategy designed to address major causes of child mortality. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the strategy on the quality of child health care provided at primary facilities. METHODS: Child health quality of care and costs were compared in four states in Northeastern Brazil, in 2001. There were studied 48 health facilities considered to have had stable strategy implementation at least two years before the start of study, with 48 matched comparison facilities in the same states. A single measure of correct management of sick children was used to assess care provided to all sick children. Costs included all resources at the national, state, local and facility levels associated with child health care. RESULTS: Facilities providing strategy-based care had significantly better management of sick children at no additional cost to municipalities relative to the comparison municipalities. At strategy facilities 72% of children were correctly managed compared with 56% in comparison facilities (p=0.001). The cost per child managed correctly was US$13.20 versus US$21.05 in the strategy and comparison municipalities, respectively, after standardization for population size. CONCLUSIONS: The strategy improves the efficiency of primary facilities in Northeastern Brazil. It leads to better health outcomes at no extra cost.

A new multiplexed microsatellite tool for metapopulation studies in the overexploited endemic limpet Patella aspera (Röding, 1798)

Patellid limpets are ecologically important keystone grazers having a long history of overexploitation in the Macaronesian Archipelagos (NE Atlantic islands), where some species, such as Patella aspera, are under serious risk.[1, 2] Patella aspera is a protandric sequential hermaphrodite species with external fertilization, in which individuals start off as males but may undergo a sex reversal with age.[3] Hence, exploitation tends to focus on the larger females in the population as larger limpets (predominantly females) are selectively removed. Despite conservation legislation in Canaries, Madeira and Azores, limpets are under severe pressure and few individuals survive long enough to become females, a phenomenon that severely restricts the effective population size.[4] New conservation actions for the protection and sustainable use of limpets in Macaronesian Archipelagos are urgently needed and should be based on a multidisciplinary framework based on knowledge of the population dynamics and connectivity of this species.

Leis de potência em sistemas naturais e artificiais

A Lei de Potência é uma particularidade de um sistema não linear, revelando um sistema complexo próximo da auto-organização. Algumas características de sistemas naturais e artificiais, tais como dimensão populacional das cidades, valor dos rendimentos pessoais, frequência de ocorrência de palavras em textos e magnitude de sismos, seguem distribuições do tipo Lei de Potência. Estas distribuições indicam que pequenas ocorrências são muito comuns e grandes ocorrências são raras, podendo porém verificar-se com razoável probabilidade. A finalidade deste trabalho visa a identificação de fenómenos associados às Leis de Potência. Mostra-se o comportamento típico destes fenómenos, com os dados retirados dos vários casos de estudo e com a ajuda de uma meta-análise. As Leis de Potência em sistemas naturais e artificiais apresentam uma proximidade a um padrão, quando os valores são normalizados (frequências relativas) para dar origem a um meta-gráfico.

The Role of the Humoral Immune Response in the Molecular Evolution of the Envelope C2, V3 and C3 Regions in Chronically HIV-2 Infected Patients

BACKGROUND: This study was designed to investigate, for the first time, the short-term molecular evolution of the HIV-2 C2, V3 and C3 envelope regions and its association with the immune response. Clonal sequences of the env C2V3C3 region were obtained from a cohort of eighteen HIV-2 chronically infected patients followed prospectively during 2-4 years. Genetic diversity, divergence, positive selection and glycosylation in the C2V3C3 region were analysed as a function of the number of CD4+ T cells and the anti-C2V3C3 IgG and IgA antibody reactivity RESULTS: The mean intra-host nucleotide diversity was 2.1% (SD, 1.1%), increasing along the course of infection in most patients. Diversity at the amino acid level was significantly lower for the V3 region and higher for the C2 region. The average divergence rate was 0.014 substitutions/site/year, which is similar to that reported in chronic HIV-1 infection. The number and position of positively selected sites was highly variable, except for codons 267 and 270 in C2 that were under strong and persistent positive selection in most patients. N-glycosylation sites located in C2 and V3 were conserved in all patients along the course of infection. Intra-host variation of C2V3C3-specific IgG response over time was inversely associated with the variation in nucleotide and amino acid diversity of the C2V3C3 region. Variation of the C2V3C3-specific IgA response was inversely associated with variation in the number of N-glycosylation sites. CONCLUSION: The evolutionary dynamics of HIV-2 envelope during chronic aviremic infection is similar to HIV-1 implying that the virus should be actively replicating in cellular compartments. Convergent evolution of N-glycosylation in C2 and V3, and the limited diversification of V3, indicates that there are important functional constraints to the potential diversity of the HIV-2 envelope. C2V3C3-specific IgG antibodies are effective at reducing viral population size limiting the number of virus escape mutants. The C3 region seems to be a target for IgA antibodies and increasing N-linked glycosylation may prevent HIV-2 envelope recognition by these antibodies. Our results provide new insights into the biology of HIV-2 and its relation with the human host and may have important implications for vaccine design.

An agent-based simulator to estimate domestic energy use

Throughout recent years, there has been an increase in the population size, as well as a fast economic growth, which has led to an increase of the energy demand that comes mainly from fossil fuels. In order to reduce the ecological footprint, governments have implemented sustainable measures and it is expected that by 2035 the energy produced from renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar would be responsible for one-third of the energy produced globally. However, since the energy produced from renewable sources is governed by the availability of the respective primary energy source there is often a mismatch between production and demand, which could be solved by adding flexibility on the demand side through demand response (DR). DR programs influence the end-user electricity usage by changing its cost along the time. Under this scenario the user needs to estimate the energy demand and on-site production in advance to plan its energy demand according to the energy price. This work focuses on the development of an agent-based electrical simulator, capable of: (a) estimating the energy demand and on-site generation with a 1-min time resolution for a 24-h period, (b) calculating the energy price for a given scenario, (c) making suggestions on how to maximize the usage of renewable energy produced on-site and to lower the electricity costs by rescheduling the use of certain appliances. The results show that this simulator allows reducing the energy bill by 11% and almost doubling the use of renewable energy produced on-site.

The occurrence of the Asian Clam Corbicula fluminea in the lowe amazon basin

This paper records for the first time the presence of Corbicula fluminea (Philipi, 1844) in the Brazilian Amazon Basin. This exotic bivalve was found in localities on the Amazonas, Pará and Tocantins rivers. Density and population size structure were measured in some localities. Mean density is between 6.66 and 7.3 individuals m-2. Population size structure and the dates of the first records suggest that the introductions may have occurred between 1997 and 1998. The introductions may have been mediated by ocean-going vessels visiting the ports of Manaus and Belém. The potential impact of the invasion on native freshwater bivalves is discussed along with the need for monitoring and prevention of further introductions of non-indigenous bivalves in Brazil.

On the weights of nations: assigning voting weights in a heterogenous union

Consider a voting procedure where countries, states, or districts comprising a union each elect representatives who then participate in later votes at the union level on their behalf. The countries, provinces, and states may vary in their populations and composition. If we wish to maximize the total expected utility of all agents in the union, how to weight the votes of the representatives of the different countries, states or districts at the union level? We provide a simple characterization of the efficient voting rule in terms of the weights assigned to different districts and the voting threshold (how large a qualified majority is needed to induce change versus the status quo). Next, in the context of a model of the correlation structure of agents preferences, we analyze how voting weights relate to the population size of a country. We then analyze the voting weights in Council of the European Union under the Nice Treaty and the recently proposed constitution, and contrast them under different versions of our model.