Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

Mental health care assessed based on structure, process and outcome : a retrospective cohort study

RESUMO: As doenças mentais são comuns, universais e associadas a uma significativa sobrecarga pessoal, familiar, social e económica. Os Serviços de Saúde Mental devem abordar de forma adequada as necessidades dos pacientes e familiares tanto ao nível clínico como também ao nível social. O presente estudo foi realizado num período de grande transformação nos sistemas de saúde primário e de saúde mental em Portugal, num Departamento de Psiquiatria desenvolvido com base nos princípios da OMS. Os objectivos incluem a caracterização: 1) das Unidades Funcionais do Departamento; 2) dos pacientes internados pela primeira vez no internamento de agudos; 3) da utilização dos serviços nas equipas comunitárias após a alta; e 4) da avaliação de alguns dos indicadores de qualidade do departamento, com recurso ao modelo de Donabedian sobre a articulação entre a Estrutura-Processo-Resultados. Metodologia: Foi escolhido um estudo de coorte retrospectivo. Todos os pacientes internados pela primeira vez entre 2008 e 2010 foram incluídos no estudo. Os seus processos clínicos e a base de dados do hospital onde são registados todos os contactos que estes tiveram com os profissionais de saúde mental foram revistos de forma a obter dados sociodemográficos e clínicos, durante o período do estudo e após a alta. Os instrumentos utilizados foram o WHO-ICMHC (Classificação Internacional de Cuidados de Saúde Mental), para caracterizar o Departamento, o AIESMP (Avaliação Inicial de Enfermagem em Saúde Mental e Psiquiatria) para recolha dos dados sociodemográficos, e o VSSS (Escala de Satisfação com os Serviços de Verona) de forma a avaliar a satisfação dos pacientes em relação aos cuidados recebidos. A análise estatística incluiu a análise descritiva, quantitativa e qualitativa dos dados. Resultados: As Unidades Funcionais do Departamento revelaram níveis elevados de articulação e consistência com as necessidades de cuidados psiquiátricos e reabilitação psicossocial dos pacientes. Os 543 pacientes admitidos pela primeira vez eram maioritariamente (56.9%) mulheres, caucasianas (81.2%), com diagnóstico de perturbações do humor (66.3%), internadas voluntariamente (59.7%), e uma idade média de 45.1 anos. Estas eram significativamente mais velhas, mais frequentemente empregadas, casadas/coabitar e tinham uma prevalência mais elevada de perturbações do humor, comparativamente aos homens. O internamento compulsivo era mais significativo nos homens (54.7%). A taxa de abandono no pós-alta (4.2%) e a taxa de reinternamentos (2.9%) na quinzena após a alta revelaram-se inferiores aos padrões na literatura internacional. De forma global, a satisfação dos pacientes com os cuidados de saúde mental foi positiva. Conclusões: Os cuidados prestados mostraram-se eficazes, adaptados e baseados nas necessidades e problemas específicos dos pacientes. A continuidade e a abrangência de cuidados foram difundidos e mantidos ao longo do processo de cuidados. Este Departamento pode ser considerado um exemplo de como proporcionar tratamento digno e eficiente, e uma referência para futuros serviços de psiquiatria.-------------- ABSTRACT: Mental health disorders are common, universal, and associated with heavy personal, family, social and economic burden. Mental health services should be aimed at adequately addressing patients’ and families’ needs at clinical and social level. The current study was carried out at a time of great transformation in the health and mental health systems in Portugal, in a Psychiatric Department developed taking in consideration the WHO principles. The objectives included characterizing: 1) the Psychiatric Department’s different units; 2) the patients admitted for the first time to the inpatient unit; 3) their use of community mental health services after discharge; and 4) assessing some of the department’s quality indicators, with resource to Donabedian’s Structure-Process-Outcome model. Methodology: A retrospective cohort design was chosen. All the firstly admitted patients in the period between 2008 and 2010 were included in the study. Their clinical records and the hospital’s database which registers all of the contacts the patients had with the mental health professionals during the study period, were reviewed to retrieve sociodemographic and clinical data and information on follow-up. The instruments used were the WHO International Classification of Mental Health Care (ICMHC) to characterize the department, the Initial Nurses’ Assessment in Mental Health and Psychiatry (AIESMP) for patients’ sociodemographic data, and the Verona Service Satisfaction Scale (VSSS) to assess patients’ satisfaction with care received. Statistical analysis included descriptive, quantitative and qualitative analysis of the data. Results: The Department’s Functional units revealed high levels of articulation, and were consistent with patients’ needs for psychiatric care and psychosocial rehabilitation. The 543 patients firstly admitted were mainly (56.9%) female, Caucasian (81.2%), diagnosed with mood disorders (66.3%), voluntarily admitted (59.7%), and with a mean age of 45.1 years. Female patients were significantly older, more frequently employed, married/cohabiting and had a higher prevalence of mood disorders when compared to males. Involuntary admission was more significant in males (54.7%). Dropout rates during follow-up (4.2%) and readmission rates (2.9%) in the fortnight following discharge were lower than standards in international literature. Overall patients’ satisfaction with mental health care was positive. Conclusions: The care delivered was effective, adapted and based on the patients’ specific needs and problems. Continuity and comprehensiveness of care was endorsed and maintained throughout the care process. This department may be considered an example of both humane and effective treatment, and a reference for future psychiatric care.

Lor’s - Women personal rain protection solutions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Evaluation of the determinism of the actuator sensor interface (ASI) on programmable logic controllers (PLC), personal computers (PC) and real-time operating systems (RTOS)

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the determinism of the AS-lnterface network and the 3 main families of control systems, which may use it, namely PLC, PC and RTOS. During the course of this study the PROFIBUS and Ethernet field level networks were also considered in order to ensure that they would not introduce unacceptable latencies into the overall control system. This research demonstrated that an incorrectly configured Ethernet network introduces unacceptable variable duration latencies into the control system, thus care must be exercised if the determinism of a control system is not to be compromised. This study introduces a new concept of using statistics and process capability metrics in the form of CPk values, to specify how suitable a control system is for a given control task. The PLC systems, which were tested, demonstrated extremely deterministic responses, but when a large number of iterations were introduced in the user program, the mean control system latency was much too great for an AS-I network. Thus the PLC was found to be unsuitable for an AS-I network if a large, complex user program Is required. The PC systems, which were tested were non-deterministic and had latencies of variable duration. These latencies became extremely exaggerated when a graphing ActiveX was included in the control application. These PC systems also exhibited a non-normal frequency distribution of control system latencies, and as such are unsuitable for implementation with an AS-I network. The RTOS system, which was tested, overcame the problems identified with the PLC systems and produced an extremely deterministic response, even when a large number of iterations were introduced in the user program. The RTOS system, which was tested, is capable of providing a suitable deterministic control system response, even when an extremely large, complex user program is required.

Invoking a cartesian product structure on social states: new resolutions of Sen's and Gibbard's impossibility theorems

The purpose of this article is to introduce a Cartesian product structure into the social choice theoretical framework and to examine if new possibility results to Gibbard's and Sen's paradoxes can be developed thanks to it. We believe that a Cartesian product structure is a pertinent way to describe individual rights in the social choice theory since it discriminates the personal features comprised in each social state. First we define some conceptual and formal tools related to the Cartesian product structure. We then apply these notions to Gibbard's paradox and to Sen's impossibility of a Paretian liberal. Finally we compare the advantages of our approach to other solutions proposed in the literature for both impossibility theorems.

Psychosocial care for the caregivers of primary malignant brain tumor patients.

Despite clinical experience that suggests a high burden of care among relatives of individuals with a primary malignant brain tumor (PMBT), little is known about their actual needs. In this study, the caregivers' personal experiences, quality of life, burden of care, and psychological well-being were examined. Fifty-nine percent did not receive any financial aid for home care, 33% had increased risk for psychosomatic problems, 45% had anxiety, and 33% increased depression levels. The caregiver's quality of life was most strongly affected by the burden of care (p < .001) and the patient's mental state (p < .03). To improve the situation, empathetic professionals and an early implementation of palliative care and social work are required.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Research Governance Framework for Health and Social Care (PDF 351 KB)

This document sets out a framework for the governance of research conducted by or on behalf of the Health & Personal Social Services (HPSS)

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Musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) are the most prevalent pain disorders in industrialized countries, and their costs can represent up to 2% of gross national product. MSD are often work associated and recurrent and may lead to disability. In occupational health we are interested in the opposite process : in the return to work (RTW). Different models of disability and RTW exist with different conceptions of psychosocial factors. We therefore propose to analyze the influence of factors from work, patient, health care providers, and broader societal domains along the different phases of the MSD process, adopting a biopsychosocial approach. The analysis of risk factors for the different phases of MSD indicate that work stress factors have an impact on the occurrence of MSD and RTW with MSD, but their effect is low to moderate and nonspecific. Physical work demands, work place adaptation, and pain experience are much stronger predictors of RTW. Lack of modified or adapted work is one of the major factors that hinder RTW. The longer the pain lasts, the longer the patient is out of work, the more personal factors and broader context factors become dominant. There is a clear lack of RTW studies concerning neck and upper limb pain. MSD and especially chronic MSD should be viewed as public health concerns, implying a wider socio-economic and insurance and disability problem. Adequate medical support tailored to the different dimensions and phases of MSD must be on offer, and work accommodations must be promoted and supported.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain : a clinical prediction score

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

Improving care for people with long term conditions: 'at a glance' information sheets for healthcare professionals

The Department has produced a series of information sheets for doctors,nurses, those delivering personal health budgets, allied health professionals, health trainers and anyone supporting individuals with long term conditions. The information sheets cover a range of topics including care planning, care co-ordination, managing need and assessment of risk, motivating people to self care, goal setting and action planning and end of life care.Download information sheet 1: Personalised care planning (PDF, 2514K)Download information sheet 2: Personalised care planning diagram (PDF, 2213K)Download information sheet 3: Care co-ordination (PDF, 1967K.

Effectiveness of brief alcohol interventions in primary care populations.

Excessive drinking contributes significantly to social problems, physical and psychological illness, injury and death. Hidden effects include increased levels of violence, accidents and suicide. Most alcohol-related harm is caused by excessive drinkers whose consumption exceeds recommended drinking levels, not the drinkers with severe alcohol dependency problems. One way to reduce consumption levels in a community may be to provide a brief intervention in primary care over one to four sessions. This is provided by healthcare workers such as general physicians, nurses or psychologists. In general practice, patients are routinely asked about alcohol consumption during registration, general health checks and as part of health screening (using a questionnaire). They tend not to be seeking help for alcohol problems when presenting. The intervention they are offered includes feedback on alcohol use and harms, identification of high risk situations for drinking and coping strategies, increased motivation and the development of a personal plan to reduce drinking. It takes place within the time-frame of a standard consultation, 5 to 15 minutes for a general physician, longer for a nurse.A total of 29 controlled trials from various countries were identified, in general practice (24 trials) or an emergency setting (five trials). Participants drank an average of 306 grams of alcohol (over 30 standard drinks) per week on entry to the trial. Over 7000 participants with a mean age of 43 years were randomised to receive a brief intervention or a control intervention, including assessment only. After one year or more, people who received the brief intervention drank less alcohol than people in the control group (average difference 38 grams/week, range 23 to 54 grams). For men (some 70% of participants), the benefit of brief intervention was a difference of 57 grams/week, range 25 to 89 grams (six trials). The benefit was not clear for women. The benefits of brief intervention were similar in the normal clinical setting and in research settings with greater resources. Longer counselling had little additional benefit.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

The functional outcome and recovery of patients admitted to an intensive care unit following drug overdose: a follow-up study.

Patients who have overdosed on drugs commonly present to emergency departments, with only the most severe cases requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Such patients typically survive hospitalisation. We studied their longer term functional outcomes and recovery patterns which have not been well described. All patients admitted to the 18-bed ICU of a university-affiliated teaching hospital following drug overdoses between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2006 were identified. With ethical approval, we evaluated the functional outcome and recovery patterns of the surviving patients 31 months after presentation, by telephone or personal interview. These were recorded as Glasgow outcome score, Karnofsky performance index and present work status. During the three years studied, 43 patients were identified as being admitted to our ICU because of an overdose. The average age was 34 years, 72% were male and the mean APACHE II score was 16.7. Of these, 32 were discharged from hospital alive. Follow-up data was attained on all of them. At a median of 31 months follow-up, a further eight had died. Of the 24 surviving there were 13 unemployed, seven employed and four in custody. The median Glasgow outcome score of survivors was 4.5, their Karnofsky score 80. Admission to ICU for treatment of overdose is associated with a very high risk of death in both the short- and long-term. While excellent functional recovery is achievable, 16% of survivors were held in custody and 54% unemployed.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Consultation on Personal and Public Involvement strategy

Personal and Public Involvement (PPI) is an integral element of effective commissioning and is underpinned by a core set of values and principles - involving and listening to people in order to help us make services better.It brings about a number of recognised benefits if fully embraced into our culture and practice, these include:Use of service user knowledge and expertise;Better priority setting and decision making;More responsive, appropriate, efficient and tailored services;Transformation and reduction of complaints;Increased levels of service satisfaction;Increased dignity and self worth.The Public Health Agency (PHA) and Health and Social Care Board (HSCB) have now developed a joint Personal and Public Involvement (PPI) Strategy after extensive engagement and discussion. The Strategy has been approved by both organisations and is now being formally consulted on during the period 23rd June 2011 to 15th September 2011.The Strategy is now available for your consideration. We have developed the following documents (please see attachments below):Valuing People, Valuing Their Participation. Involving You and Listening to You Consultation Document.Valuing People, Valuing Their Participation, Involving You and Listening to You. [An Easy Read version of the Personal and Public Involvement Strategy].Valuing People, Valuing Their Participation. [An Equality and Human Rights Screening of the Strategy].Key Questions to guide consideration of the Personal and Public Involvement Strategy.People are encouraged to read the Strategy and to let us have your views.� There is a set of Key Questions, but any comments, ideas and or suggestions that you may have, that could support us in our efforts to embed Personal and Public Involvement into our culture and practice, would be most welcome.Responses should be returned by 4.00pm on Thursday 15th September 2011 to:By post:Martin QuinnRegional PPI LeadPublic Health AgencyGransha Park House15 Gransha ParkLondonderryBT47 6FNBy email: siobhan.carlin@hscni.net By telephone: (028) 7186 0086A more detailed version of the consultation document is avalable by clicking here or contacting Siobhan Carlin, email: siobhan.carlin@hscni.net, Tel: (028) 7186 0086.If you require any of these documents in an alternative format such as Braille, larger print or in another language if you are not fluent in English, please do not hesitate to contact us.A report of feedback received as part of this consultation can be made available upon request.Please be aware that the PHA and HSCB are also currently consulting on the Community Development Strategy.You are invited to consider responding to this consultation as well if appropriate.