Dietary folates and cancer risk in a network of case-control studies.

Background Folate deficiency leads to DNA damage and inadequate repair, caused by a decreased synthesis of thymidylate and purines. We analyzed the relationship between dietary folate intake and the risk of several cancers. Patients and methods The study is based on a network of case-control studies conducted in Italy and Switzerland in 1991-2009. The odds ratios (ORs) for dietary folate intake were estimated by multiple logistic regression models, adjusted for major identified confounding factors. Results For a few cancer sites, we found a significant inverse relation, with ORs for an increment of 100 μg/day of dietary folate of 0.65 for oropharyngeal (1467 cases), 0.58 for esophageal (505 cases), 0.83 for colorectal (2390 cases), 0.72 for pancreatic (326 cases), 0.67 for laryngeal (851 cases) and 0.87 for breast (3034 cases) cancers. The risk estimates were below unity, although not significantly, for cancers of the endometrium (OR = 0.87, 454 cases), ovary (OR = 0.86, 1031 cases), prostate (OR = 0.91, 1468 cases) and kidney (OR = 0.88, 767 cases), and was 1.00 for stomach cancer (230 cases). No material heterogeneity was found in strata of sex, age, smoking and alcohol drinking. Conclusions Our data support a real inverse association of dietary folate intake with the risk of several common cancers.

Equivalence of piecewise-linear approximation and Lagrangian relaxation for network revenue management

The network revenue management (RM) problem arises in airline, hotel, media,and other industries where the sale products use multiple resources. It can be formulatedas a stochastic dynamic program but the dynamic program is computationallyintractable because of an exponentially large state space, and a number of heuristicshave been proposed to approximate it. Notable amongst these -both for their revenueperformance, as well as their theoretically sound basis- are approximate dynamic programmingmethods that approximate the value function by basis functions (both affinefunctions as well as piecewise-linear functions have been proposed for network RM)and decomposition methods that relax the constraints of the dynamic program to solvesimpler dynamic programs (such as the Lagrangian relaxation methods). In this paperwe show that these two seemingly distinct approaches coincide for the network RMdynamic program, i.e., the piecewise-linear approximation method and the Lagrangianrelaxation method are one and the same.

Mapping of Environmental Data Using Kernel-Based Methods

Recently, kernel-based Machine Learning methods have gained great popularity in many data analysis and data mining fields: pattern recognition, biocomputing, speech and vision, engineering, remote sensing etc. The paper describes the use of kernel methods to approach the processing of large datasets from environmental monitoring networks. Several typical problems of the environmental sciences and their solutions provided by kernel-based methods are considered: classification of categorical data (soil type classification), mapping of environmental and pollution continuous information (pollution of soil by radionuclides), mapping with auxiliary information (climatic data from Aral Sea region). The promising developments, such as automatic emergency hot spot detection and monitoring network optimization are discussed as well.

Early Stage Primary Bone Lymphoma: A Retrospective, Multicenter Rare Cancer Network Study

Purpose/Objective(s): Primary bone lymphoma (PBL) represents less than 1% of all malignant lymphomas, and 4-5% of all extranodal lymphomas. In this study, we assessed the disease profile, outcome, and prognostic factors in patients with stage I and II PBL.Materials/Methods: Between 1987 and 2008, 116 consecutive patients with PBL treated in 13 RCNinstitutions were included in this study. Inclusion criteriawere: age.17 yrs, PBLin stage I and II, andminimum6months follow-up. The median agewas 51 yrs (range: 17-93).Diagnosticwork-up included plain boneXray (74%of patients), scintigraphy (62%), CT-scan (65%),MRI (58%), PET (18%), and bone-marrow biopsy (84%).All patients had biopsy-proven confirmation of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). The histopathological type was predominantly diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (78%) and follicular lymphoma (6%), according to theWHOclassification. One hundred patients had a high-grade, 7 intermediate and 9 low-gradeNHL. Ninety-three patients had anAnn-Arbor stage I, and 23 had a stage II. Seventy-seven patients underwent chemoradiotherapy (CXRT), 12 radiotherapy (RT) alone, 10 chemotherapy alone (CXT), 9 surgery followed by CXRT, 5 surgery followed by CXT, and 2 surgery followed by RT. One patient died before treatment.Median RT dosewas 40Gy (range: 4-60).Themedian number ofCXTcycleswas 6 (range, : 2-8).Median follow-upwas 41months (range: 6-242).Results: Following treatment, the overall response rate was 91% (CR 74%, PR 17%). Local recurrence was observed in 12 (10%) patients, and systemic recurrence in 17 (15%) patients. Causes of death included disease progression in 16, unrelated disease in 6, CXT-related toxicity in 1, and secondary cancer in 2 patients. The 5-yr overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), lymphoma- specific survival (LSS), and local control (LC) were 76%, 69%, 78%, and 92%, respectively. In univariate analyses (log-rank test), favorable prognostic factors for survival were: age\50 years (p = 0.008), IPI score #1 (p = 0.009), complete response (p\0.001), CXT (p = 0.008), number of CXT cycles $6 (p = 0.007), and RT dose . 40 Gy (p = 0.005). In multivariate analysis age, RT dose, complete response, and absence of B symptoms were independent factors influencing the outcome. There were 3 patients developing grade 3 or more (CTCAE.V3.0) toxicities.Conclusions: This large multicenter study, confirms the relatively good prognosis of early stage PBL, treated with combined CXRT. Local control was excellent, and systemic failure occurred infrequently. A sufficient dose of RT (. 40 Gy) and completeCXT regime (. 6 cycles) were associated with a better outcome. Combined modality appears to be the treatment of choice.Author Disclosure: L. Cai, None; M.C. Stauder, None; Y.J. Zhang, None; P. Poortmans, None; Y.X. Li, None; N. Constantinou, None; J. Thariat, None; S. Kadish, None; M. Ozsahin, None; R.O. Mirimanoff, None.

The P-median problem in a changing network: The case of Barcelona

In this paper a p--median--like model is formulated to address theissue of locating new facilities when there is uncertainty. Severalpossible future scenarios with respect to demand and/or the travel times/distanceparameters are presented. The planner will want a strategy of positioning thatwill do as ``well as possible'' over the future scenarios. This paper presents a discrete location model formulation to address this P--Medianproblem under uncertainty. The model is applied to the location of firestations in Barcelona.

On bounds for network revenue management

The Network Revenue Management problem can be formulated as a stochastic dynamic programming problem (DP or the\optimal" solution V *) whose exact solution is computationally intractable. Consequently, a number of heuristics have been proposed in the literature, the most popular of which are the deterministic linear programming (DLP) model, and a simulation based method, the randomized linear programming (RLP) model. Both methods give upper bounds on the optimal solution value (DLP and PHLP respectively). These bounds are used to provide control values that can be used in practice to make accept/deny decisions for booking requests. Recently Adelman [1] and Topaloglu [18] have proposed alternate upper bounds, the affine relaxation (AR) bound and the Lagrangian relaxation (LR) bound respectively, and showed that their bounds are tighter than the DLP bound. Tight bounds are of great interest as it appears from empirical studies and practical experience that models that give tighter bounds also lead to better controls (better in the sense that they lead to more revenue). In this paper we give tightened versions of three bounds, calling themsAR (strong Affine Relaxation), sLR (strong Lagrangian Relaxation) and sPHLP (strong Perfect Hindsight LP), and show relations between them. Speciffically, we show that the sPHLP bound is tighter than sLR bound and sAR bound is tighter than the LR bound. The techniques for deriving the sLR and sPHLP bounds can potentially be applied to other instances of weakly-coupled dynamic programming.

Validation procedures in radiological diagnostic models. Neural network and logistic regression

The objective of this paper is to compare the performance of twopredictive radiological models, logistic regression (LR) and neural network (NN), with five different resampling methods. One hundred and sixty-seven patients with proven calvarial lesions as the only known disease were enrolled. Clinical and CT data were used for LR and NN models. Both models were developed with cross validation, leave-one-out and three different bootstrap algorithms. The final results of each model were compared with error rate and the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (Az). The neural network obtained statistically higher Az than LR with cross validation. The remaining resampling validation methods did not reveal statistically significant differences between LR and NN rules. The neural network classifier performs better than the one based on logistic regression. This advantage is well detected by three-fold cross-validation, but remains unnoticed when leave-one-out or bootstrap algorithms are used.

Red meat and cancer risk in a network of case-control studies focusing on cooking practices.

BACKGROUND: Consumption of red meat has been related to increased risk of several cancers. Cooking methods could modify the magnitude of this association, as production of chemicals depends on the temperature and duration of cooking. METHODS: We analyzed data from a network of case-control studies conducted in Italy and Switzerland between 1991 and 2009. The studies included 1465 oral and pharyngeal, 198 nasopharyngeal, 851 laryngeal, 505 esophageal, 230 stomach, 1463 colon, 927 rectal, 326 pancreatic, 3034 breast, 454 endometrial, 1031 ovarian, 1294 prostate and 767 renal cancer cases. Controls included 11 656 patients admitted for acute, non-neoplastic conditions. Odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by multiple logistic regression models, adjusted for known confounding factors. RESULTS: Daily intake of red meat was significantly associated with the risk of cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx (OR for increase of 50 g/day = 1.38; 95% CI: 1.26-1.52), nasopharynx (OR = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.04-1.60), larynx (OR = 1.46; 95% CI: 1.30-1.64), esophagus (OR = 1.46; 95% CI: 1.23-1.72), colon (OR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.08-1.26), rectum (OR = 1.22; 95% CI:1.11-1.33), pancreas (OR = 1.51; 95% CI: 1.25-1.82), breast (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.04-1.19), endometrium (OR = 1.30; 95% CI: 1.10-1.55) and ovary (OR = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.16-1.43). Fried meat was associated with a higher risk of cancer of oral cavity and pharynx (OR = 2.80; 95% CI: 2.02-3.89) and esophagus (OR = 4.52; 95% CI: 2.50-8.18). Risk of prostate cancer increased for meat cooked by roasting/grilling (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 1.12-1.54). No heterogeneity according to cooking methods emerged for other cancers. Nonetheless, significant associations with boiled/stewed meat also emerged for cancer of the nasopharynx (OR = 1.97; 95% CI: 1.30-3.00) and stomach (OR = 1.86; 95% CI: 1.20-2.87). CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis confirmed red meat consumption as a risk factor for several cancer sites, with a limited impact of cooking methods. These findings, thus, call for a limitation of its consumption in populations of Western countries.

Outcome and patterns of failure in testicular lymphoma: a multicenter Rare Cancer Network study.

PURPOSE: To assess the outcome and patterns of failure in patients with testicular lymphoma treated by chemotherapy (CT) and/or radiation therapy (RT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Data from a series of 36 adult patients with Ann Arbor Stage I (n = 21), II (n = 9), III (n = 3), or IV (n = 3) primary testicular lymphoma, consecutively treated between 1980 and 1999, were collected in a retrospective multicenter study by the Rare Cancer Network. Median age was 64 years (range: 21-91 years). Full staging workup (chest X-ray, testicular ultrasound, abdominal ultrasound, and/or thoracoabdominal computer tomography, bone marrow assessment, full blood count, lactate dehydrogenase, and cerebrospinal fluid evaluation) was completed in 18 (50%) patients. All but one patient underwent orchidectomy, and spermatic cord infiltration was found in 9 patients. Most patients (n = 29) had CT, consisting in most cases of cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisolone (CHOP) with (n = 17) or without intrathecal CT. External RT was delivered to scrotum alone (n = 12) or testicular, iliac, and para-aortic regions (n = 8). The median RT dose was 31 Gy (range: 20-44 Gy) in a median of 17 fractions (10-24), using a median of 1.8 Gy (range: 1.5-2.5 Gy) per fraction. The median follow-up period was 42 months (range: 6-138 months). RESULTS: After a median period of 11 months (range: 1-76 months), 14 patients presented lymphoma progression, mostly in the central nervous system (CNS) (n = 8). Among the 17 patients who received intrathecal CT, 4 had a CNS relapse (p = NS). No testicular, iliac, or para-aortic relapse was observed in patients receiving RT to these regions. The 5-year overall, lymphoma-specific, and disease-free survival was 47%, 66%, and 43%, respectively. In univariate analyses, statistically significant factors favorably influencing the outcome were early-stage and combined modality treatment. Neither RT technique nor total dose influenced the outcome. Multivariate analysis revealed that the most favorable independent factors predicting the outcome were younger age, early-stage disease, and combined modality treatment. CONCLUSIONS: In this multicenter retrospective study, CNS was found to be the principal site of relapse, and no extra-CNS lymphoma progression was observed in the irradiated volumes. More effective CNS prophylaxis, including combined modalities, should be prospectively explored in this uncommon site of extranodal lymphoma.

Nets: Network estimation for time series

This work proposes novel network analysis techniques for multivariate time series.We define the network of a multivariate time series as a graph where verticesdenote the components of the process and edges denote non zero long run partialcorrelations. We then introduce a two step LASSO procedure, called NETS, toestimate high dimensional sparse Long Run Partial Correlation networks. This approachis based on a VAR approximation of the process and allows to decomposethe long run linkages into the contribution of the dynamic and contemporaneousdependence relations of the system. The large sample properties of the estimatorare analysed and we establish conditions for consistent selection and estimation ofthe non zero long run partial correlations. The methodology is illustrated with anapplication to a panel of U.S. bluechips.

Primary mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue lymphoma of the salivary glands: a multicenter Rare Cancer Network study.

Purpose: Involvement of salivary glands with mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) lymphoma is rare. This retrospective study was performed to assess the clinical profile, treatment outcome, and prognostic factors of MALT lymphoma of the salivary glands.Methods and Materials: Thirteen member centers of the Rare Cancer Network from 10 countries participated, providing data on 63 patients. The median age was 58 years; 47 patients were female and 16 were male. The parotid glands were involved in 49 cases, submandibular in 15, and minor glands in 3. Multiple glands were involved in 9 patients. Staging was as follows: IE in 34, IIE in 12, IIIE in 2, and IV in 15 patients.Results: Surgery (S) alone was performed in 9, radiotherapy (RI) alone in 8, and chemotherapy (CT) alone in 4 patients. Forty-one patients received combined modality treatment (S + RT in 23, S + CT in 8, RT + CT in 4, and all three modalities in 6 patients). No active treatment was given in one case. After initial treatment there was no tumor in 57 patients and residual tumor in 5. Tumor progression was observed in 23 (36.5%) (local in 1, other salivary glands in 10, lymph nodes in 11, and elsewhere in 6). Five patients died of disease progression and the other 5 of other causes. The 5-year disease-free survival, disease-specific survival, and overall survival were 54.4%, 93.2%, and 81.7%, respectively. Factors influencing disease-free survival were use of RI, stage, and residual tumor (p < 0.01). Factors influencing disease-specific survival were stage, recurrence, and residual tumor (p < 0.01).Conclusions: To our knowledge, this report represents the largest series of MALT lymphomas of the salivary glands published to date. This disease may involve all salivary glands either initially or subsequently in 30% of patients. Recurrences may occur in up to 35% of patients at 5 years; however, survival is not affected. Radiotherapy is the only treatment modality that improves disease-free survival. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Adenoid Cystic Carcinoma of the Breast: A Rare Cancer Network Study

Purpose/Objective(s): Mammary adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) is a rare breast cancer variant. It accounts for less than 0.1% of all invasive breast malignancies. Typically, it presents as a small breast lump with a low propensity to metastasize to regional lymph nodes or distant sites. The aim of this retrospective multicenter Rare Cancer Network study is to assess prognostic factors and patterns of failure in ACC, as well as the role of radiation therapy (RT) in this rare disease. Materials/Methods: Between January 1980 and December 2007, 61 women with breast ACC were included in this study. Median age was 59 years (range, 28-94 years). The majority of the patients had good performance status (49 patients with WHO 0, 12 patients with WHO 1), and 70% of the patients (n = 42) were premenopausal. Surgery consisted of tumorectomy in 35 patients, mastectomy in 20, or quadrantectomy in 6. Median tumor size was 20 mm (range, 6-170 mm). Surgical margins were clear in 50 (82%) patients. Axillary dissection (n = 41) or sentinel node assessment (n = 10) was realized in the majority of the patients. There were 53 (87%) pN0 and 8 pNx (13%) patients. Estrogen (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) was negative in 43 (71%) and 42 (69%) patients, respectively. In 16 patients (26%), the receptor status was unknown. Adjuvant chemotherapy or hormonotherapy was administered in 8 (13%) and 7 (12%) patients, respectively. Postoperative RT with a median total dose of 50 Gy (1.8-2.0 Gy/fraction; range, 44-70 Gy) was given in 40 patients. Results: With a median follow-up of 79 months (range, 6-285 months), 5-year overall and disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 94% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 88-100%) and 82% (95% CI: 71-93%), respectively. Five-year locoregional control rate was 95% (95% CI: 89-100%). There were only 4 patients with local relapse who were all salvaged successfully, and 4 other patients developed distant metastases. According to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events v3.0, late toxicity consisted of grade 2-3 cutaneous fibrosis in 4 (10%) patients, grade 1-2 edema in 2 (5%), and grade 3 lung fibrosis in 2 (5%). In univariate analyses, the outcome was influenced neither by the type of surgery nor the use of postoperative RT. However, positive receptor status had a negative influence on the outcome. Multivariate analysis (Cox model) revealed that negative ER (p = 0.006) or PR (p = 0.04) status was associated with improved DFS. Conclusions: ACC of the breast is a relatively indolent disease with excellent local control and survival. The prognosis of patients with ACC is much better than that for patients with other breast cancers, especially those who are ER and PR negative. The role of postoperative RT is not clear. More aggressive treatments may be warranted for patients with positive receptor status.

A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Outcome and Prognostic Factors in Adenosquamous Carcinoma of the Head and Neck: A Multicenter Rare Cancer Network Study

Purpose/Objective(s): Adenosquamous carcinoma (AC) of the head and neck is a distinct entity first described in 1968. Its natural history is more aggressive than squamous cell carcinoma but this is based on very small series reported in the literature. The goal of this study was to assess the clinical profile, outcome, patterns of failure and prognostic factors in patients with AC of the head and neck treated by radiation therapy (RT) with or without chemotherapy (CT).Materials/Methods: Data from 18 patients with Stage I (n = 3), II (n = 1), III (n = 4), or IVa (n = 10) AC, treated between 1989 and 2009, were collected in a retrospective multicenter Rare Cancer Network study. Median age was 60 years (range, 48 - 73 years). Fourteen patients were male and 4 female. Risk factors, including perineural invasion, lymphangitis, vascular invasion, positive margins, were present in 83% of the patients. Tumor sites included oral cavity in 4, oropharynx in 4, hypopharynx in2, larynx in 2, salivary glands in 2, nasal vestibule in 2, nasopharynx in 1, and maxillary sinus in 1 patient. Surgery (S) was performed in all but 5 patients. S alone was performed in only 1 patient, and definitive RT alone in 3 patients. Fourteen patients received combined modality treatment (S+RT in 10, RT+CT in 2, and all of the three modalities in 2 patients). Median RT dose to the primary and to the nodes was 66 Gy (range, 50 - 72 Gy) and 53 Gy (range, 44 - 66 Gy), respectively (1.8 - 2.0 Gy/fr., 5 fr./ week). In 4 patients, the planning treatment volume included the primary tumor site only. Seven patients were treated with 2D RT, 7 with 3D conformal RT, and 2 with intensity-modulated RT.Results: After a median follow-up period of 38 months (range, 9 - 62 months), 8 patients developed distant metastases (lung, bone, mediastinum, and liver), 6 presented nodal recurrences, and only 4 had a local relapse at the primary site (all in-field recurrences). At last follow-up, 6 patients were alive without disease, 1 alive with disease, 9 died from progressive disease, and 2 died from intercurrent disease. The 3-year and median overall survival, disease-free survival (DFS) and locoregional control rates were 52% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 28 - 76%) and 39 months, 36% (95% CI: 13 - 49%) and 12 months, and 54% (95% CI: 26 - 82%) and 40 months, respectively. In multivariate analysis (Cox model), DFS was negatively influenced by the presence of extracapsular extension (p = 0.02) and advanced stage (IV versus I-III, p = 0.003).Conclusions: Overall prognosis of locoregionally advanced AC remains poor, and distant metastases and nodal relapse occur in almost half of the cases. However, local control is relatively good, and early stage AC patients had prolonged DFS when treated with combined modality treatment.

The essential role of radiotherapy in the treatment of Merkel cell carcinoma: a study from the Rare Cancer Network.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the role of postoperative radiotherapy (RT) in Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC). METHODS AND MATERIALS: A retrospective multicenter study was performed in 180 patients with MCC treated between February 1988 and September 2009. Patients who had had surgery alone were compared with patients who received surgery and postoperative RT or radical RT. Local relapse-free survival (LRFS), regional relapse-free survival (RRFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) rates were assessed together with disease-free survival (DFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) rates. RESULTS: Seventy-nine patients were male and 101 patients were female, and the median age was 73 years old (range, 38-93 years). The majority of patients had localized disease (n = 146), and the remaining patients had regional lymph node metastasis (n = 34). Forty-nine patients underwent surgery for the primary tumor without postoperative RT to the primary site; the other 131 patients received surgery for the primary tumor, followed by postoperative RT (n = 118) or a biopsy of the primary tumor followed by radical RT (n = 13). Median follow-up was 5 years (range, 0.2-16.5 years). Patients in the RT group had improved LRFS (93% vs. 64%; p < 0.001), RRFS (76% vs. 27%; p < 0.001), DMFS (70% vs. 42%; p = 0.01), DFS (59% vs. 4%; p < 0.001), and CSS (65% vs. 49%; p = 0.03) rates compared to patients who underwent surgery for the primary tumor alone; LRFS, RRFS, DMFS, and DFS rates remained significant with multivariable Cox regression analysis. However OS was not significantly improved by postoperative RT (56% vs. 46%; p = 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: After multivariable analysis, postoperative RT was associated with improved outcome and seems to be an important component in the multimodality treatment of MCC.