Timescales for Detecting a Significant Acceleration in Sea Level Rise

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

Impact of Late Holocene Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Activities on Biscayne Bay (Florida, U.S.A.): Evidence From Diatoms

Shallow marine ecosystems are experiencing significant environmental alterations as a result of changing climate and increasing human activities along coasts. Intensive urbanization of the southeast Florida coast and intensification of climate change over the last few centuries changed the character of coastal ecosystems in the semi-enclosed Biscayne Bay, Florida. In order to develop management policies for the Bay, it is vital to obtain reliable scientific evidence of past ecological conditions. The long-term records of subfossil diatoms obtained from No Name Bank and Featherbed Bank in the Central Biscayne Bay, and from the Card Sound Bank in the neighboring Card Sound, were used to study the magnitude of the environmental change caused by climate variability and water management over the last ~ 600 yr. Analyses of these records revealed that the major shifts in the diatom assemblage structures at No Name Bank occurred in 1956, at Featherbed Bank in 1966, and at Card Sound Bank in 1957. Smaller magnitude shifts were also recorded at Featherbed Bank in 1893, 1942, 1974 and 1983. Most of these changes coincided with severe drought periods that developed during the cold phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or when AMO was in warm phase and PDO was in the cold phase. Only the 1983 change coincided with an unusually wet period that developed during the warm phases of ENSO and PDO. Quantitative reconstructions of salinity using the weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) diatom-based salinity model revealed a gradual increase in salinity at the three coring locations over the last ~ 600 yr, which was primarily caused by continuously rising sea level and in the last several decades also by the reduction of the amount of freshwater inflow from the mainland. Concentration of sediment total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) increased in the second half of the 20th century, which coincided with the construction of canals, landfills, marinas and water treatment plants along the western margin of Biscayne Bay. Increased magnitude and rate of the diatom assemblage restructuring in the mid- and late-1900s, suggest that large environmental changes are occurring more rapidly now than in the past.

Evidence of climate variability and tropical cyclone activity from diatom assemblage dynamics in coastal southwest Florida

Estuaries are dynamic on many spatial and temporal scales. Distinguishing effects of unpredictable events from cyclical patterns can be challenging but important to predict the influence of press and pulse drivers in the face of climate change. Diatom assemblages respond rapidly to changing environmental conditions and characterize change on multiple time scales. The goals of this research were to 1) characterize diatom assemblages in the Charlotte Harbor watershed, their relationships with water quality parameters, and how they change in response to climate; and 2) use assemblages in sediment cores to interpret past climate changes and tropical cyclone activity. ^ Diatom assemblages had strong relationships with salinity and nutrient concentrations, and a quantitative tool was developed to reconstruct past values of these parameters. Assemblages were stable between the wet and dry seasons, and were more similar to each other than to assemblages found following a tropical cyclone. Diatom assemblages following the storm showed a decrease in dispersion among sites, a pattern that was consistent on different spatial scales but may depend on hydrological management regimes. ^ Analysis of sediment cores from two southwest Florida estuaries showed that locally-developed diatom inference models can be applied with caution on regional scales. Large-scale climate changes were suggested by environmental reconstructions in both estuaries, but with slightly different temporal pacing. Estimates of salinity and nutrient concentrations suggested that major hydrological patterns changed at approximately 5.5 and 3 kyrs BP. A highly temporally-resolved sediment core from Charlotte Harbor provided evidence for past changes that correspond with known climate records. Diatom assemblages had significant relationships with the three-year average index values of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Assemblages that predicted low salinity and high total phosphorus also had the lowest dispersion and corresponded with some major storms in the known record, which together may provide a proxy for evidence of severe storms in the paleoecological record. ^

Physical oceanography during three Maria S. Merian cruises (MSM21/2, MSM27, MSM28)

Flemish Pass, located at the western subpolar margin, is a passage (sill depth 1200 m) that is constrained by the Grand Banks and the underwater plateau Flemish Cap. In addition to the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) pathway offshore of Flemish Cap, Flemish Pass represents another southward transport pathway for two modes of Labrador Sea Water (LSW), the lightest component of North Atlantic Deep Water carried with the DWBC. This pathway avoids potential stirring regions east of Flemish Cap and deflection into the interior North Atlantic. Ship-based velocity measurements between 2009 and 2013 at 47°N in Flemish Pass and in the DWBC east of Flemish Cap revealed a considerable southward transport of Upper LSW through Flemish Pass (15-27%, -1.0 to -1.5 Sv). About 98% of the denser Deep LSW were carried around Flemish Cap as Flemish Pass is too shallow for considerable transport of Deep LSW. Hydrographic time series from ship-based measurements show a significant warming of 0.3°C/decade and a salinification of 0.03/decade of the Upper LSW in Flemish Pass between 1993 and 2013. Almost identical trends were found for the evolution in the Labrador Sea and in the DWBC east of Flemish Cap. This indicates that the long-term hydrographic variability of Upper LSW in Flemish Pass as well as in the DWBC at 47°N is dominated by changes in the Labrador Sea, which are advected southward. Fifty years of numerical ocean model simulations in Flemish Pass suggest that these trends are part of a multidecadal cycle.

A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years) and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP) permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

X-ray fluorescent (XRF) ratios and diatom groups of sediment core GeoB13813-4

The continental shelf adjacent to the Río de la Plata (RdlP) exhibits extremely complex hydrographic and ecological characteristics which are of great socioeconomic importance. Since the long-term environmental variations related to the atmospheric (wind fields), hydrologic (freshwater plume), and oceanographic (currents and fronts) regimes are little known, the aim of this study is to reconstruct the changes in the terrigenous input into the inner continental shelf during the late Holocene period (associated with the RdlP sediment discharge) and to unravel the climatic forcing mechanisms behind them. To achieve this, we retrieved a 10 m long sediment core from the RdlP mud depocenter at 57 m water depth (GeoB 13813-4). The radiocarbon age control indicated an extremely high sedimentation rate of 0.8 cm per year, encompassing the past 1200 years (AD 750-2000). We used element ratios (Ti / Ca, Fe / Ca, Ti / Al, Fe / K) as regional proxies for the fluvial input signal and the variations in relative abundance of salinity-indicative diatom groups (freshwater versus marine-brackish) to assess the variability in terrigenous freshwater and sediment discharges. Ti / Ca, Fe / Ca, Ti / Al, Fe / K and the freshwater diatom group showed the lowest values between AD 850 and 1300, while the highest values occurred between AD 1300 and 1850. The variations in the sedimentary record can be attributed to the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), both of which had a significant impact on rainfall and wind patterns over the region. During the MCA, a weakening of the South American summer monsoon system (SAMS) and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), could explain the lowest element ratios (indicative of a lower terrigenous input) and a marine-dominated diatom record, both indicative of a reduced RdlP freshwater plume. In contrast, during the LIA, a strengthening of SAMS and SACZ may have led to an expansion of the RdlP river plume to the far north, as indicated by higher element ratios and a marked freshwater diatom signal. Furthermore, a possible multidecadal oscillation probably associated with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) since AD 1300 reflects the variability in both the SAMS and SACZ systems.