Análise de critérios de decisão em estratégia de arranjos produtivos locais: um estudo aplicando o processo de hierarquia analítica (AHP) no setor de cerâmica

This master thesis has the objective of investigating the strategic decision criteria of participants of Local Production Arrangements (LPA) in Brazil. The LPA s are an initiative of support agents to enterprises with the purpose of organizing joint actions for the development of groups (clusters) of enterprises. The choice of the actions is a decision of the participating enterprises and this paper aims at applying a Multi-criteria Analysis Method to analyze the criteria of entrepreneurs that are participating of a LPA. The used method is the Process of Analytical Hierarchy (PAH) and an application is presented along with questionnaires to participants of a ceramic LPA in the northeast of Brazil. The main results show that, in first place, from the implicit strategy of each enterprise there is only one objective for the LPA group and so, at the beginning, an action decided by all of them tends to favor some more than others. In second place, it was observed that there are general inconsistencies between the strategic objectives and the importance as to criteria, even though there have been cases of coherency. As the main conclusion it is pointed that the use of Methods of MCDA is useful to improve the decision making process and to bring more transparency to the logic of the found results

Avaliação da produção de sedimento na bacia hidrográfica do rio Potengi através do modelo SWAT

Anthropic disturbances in watersheds, such as inappropriate building development, disorderly land occupation and unplanned land use, may strengthen the sediment yield and the inflow into the estuary, leading to siltation, changes in the reach channel conformation, and ecosystem/water quality problems. Faced with such context, this study aims to assess the applicability of SWAT model to estimate, even in a preliminary way, the sediment yield distribution along the Potengi River watershed, as well as its contribution to the estuary. Furthermore, an assessment of its erosion susceptibility was used for comparison. The susceptibility map was developed by overlaying rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, the slope of the terrain and land cover. In order to overlap these maps, a multi-criteria analysis through AHP method was applied. The SWAT was run using a five year period (1997-2001), considering three different scenarios based on different sorts of human interference: a) agriculture; b) pasture; and c) no interference (background). Results were analyzed in terms of surface runoff, sediment yield and their propagation along each river section, so that it was possible to find that the regions in the extreme west of the watershed and in the downstream portions returned higher values of sediment yield, reaching respectively 2.8 e 5.1 ton/ha.year, whereas central areas, which were less susceptible, returned the lowest values, never more than 0.7 ton/ha.ano. It was also noticed that in the west sub-watersheds, where one can observe the headwaters, sediment yield was naturally forced by high declivity and weak soils. In another hand, results suggest that the eastern part would not contribute to the sediment inflow into the estuary in a significant way, and the larger part of the sediment yield in that place is due to anthropic activities. For the central region, the analysis of sediment propagation indicates deposition predominance in opposition to transport. Thus, it s not expected that isolated rain storms occurring in the upstream river portions would significantly provide the estuary with sediment. Because the model calibration process hasn t been done yet, it becomes essential to emphasize that values presented here as results should not be applied for pratical aims. Even so, this work warns about the risks of a growth in the alteration of natural land cover, mainly in areas closer to the headwaters and in the downstream Potengi River

Zoneamento geoambiental da região compreendida pelas folhas topográficas São José dos Campos e Jacareí-SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Utilização da lógica difusa na caracterização de áreas favoráveis à disposição de resíduos sólidos no município de Americana (SP)

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Análise de um conjunto de procedimentos metodológicos para a delimitação de corredores verdes (Greenways) ao longo de cursos fluviais

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Determinação de áreas prioritárias para o restabelecimento da cobertura florestal, apoiada no uso de geotecnologias

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Auxílio do geoprocessamento para a geração do mapa de suscetibilidade à erosão: o caso do córrego Mandu, Rio Claro/SP

The mining of sand, currently, is essential for urban growth, by providing input for the building industry. The consequences of this mining activity to environmental triggers may be severe and irreversible. Among the major impacts caused by sand mining the riparian vegetation removal is detached. The riparian vegetation is essential for balance and maintaining the local ecosystem. For all that had been shown, is possible to verify the importance of environmental studies in areas wich there are mining. This study aimed specially to assess environmental impacts triggered by a mining, located near the headwaters of the stream Mandu, situated in Ajapi, District of Rio Claro-SP. For this purpose, we used remote sensing techniques and GIS to produce thematic maps of slope, pedology, geology, land use and occupation of the soil, and riparian vegetation, using the capabilities of GIS / ArcGIS. The slope map was based on data from the Cartographic IGC 1979, scale 1:10,000. For the production of pedological and geological maps were used Semi-Detailed soil survey of the state of São Paulo, 1981 (1:100,000) and the Geological Map of Zaine (1994), scale 1:50,000, respectively. Since the maps of Use and Land Occupation and Riparian Forest were obtained by visual interpretation of the image of CBERS 2010 following the merger between the HRC and CCD images. From these mappings, and through multi-criteria analysis, map of susceptibility to erosion was made, which supported the environmental assessment of the studied area, indicating susceptible and unsuitable areas for the deployment of economic activities and urban sprawl. This study serves as a model can be replicated in other watersheds, assisting in the proper use planning and land use, aiming at the rational use of natural resources

Análise da suscetibilidade a corridas de massa aplicada a dutovias: estudo de caso na bacia do Ribeirão do Roque

This scientific research aimed at to analyse the susceptibility to debris flow of the watershed of Ribeirão do Roque (SP), focusing on the upstream areas of OSBRA pipeline. This is because, mass flow can cause damage to pipes, mainly due to conditioning hydro erosion of the land in the drainage crossings, including the undermining the banks of streams. Firstly, It was conducted a literature review, aiming to identify and understand the principal characteristics and conditions of debris flow. Secondly, the physical and anthropic factors and their respective weights of influence were selected and used to determine the mass flow susceptibility. It was selected the following physical factors: type and thickness of rocks, soil and unconsolidated materials; textural density; amplitude relief; relief slope; shaped valley; and shape of slopes. Such factors are present in the physiographic subdivision map of the study area. In addition, the anthropic attributes correspond to the classes contained in the land use map. Therefore, the physical and anthropic factors were integrated through the multi-criteria analysis in a GIS environment, generating a total susceptibility map of debris flow on the scale 1:50,000. The results showed that a significative part of the study area was classified as average susceptibility. However, it was identified areas with high susceptibility in the region in which the pipe cross the Ribeirão do Roque. Moreover, at which point the river presents a closed valley and a meander shape, without a fluvial plain that would be useful to attenuate the development of the process. Consequently, if a mass flow begins in any of these most susceptible regions located upstream of the pipe, the chances that the process develops by the river and causes the excavations of his bed are quite large. However, the pipelines cross these critical areas directly on the rock (diabase), which provides additional protection against possible ...

Análise multicriterial aplicado na definição de áreas prioritárias ao uso agrícola da terra da bacia do Rio Capivara, Botucatu, SP

The use of geographic information systems (GIS), combined with advanced analysis technique, enables the standardization and data integration, which are usually from different sources, allowing you to conduct a joint evaluation of the same, providing more efficiency and reliability in the decision-making process to promote the adequacy of land use. This study aimed to analyze the priority areas of the basin agricultural use of the Capivara River, Botucatu, SP, through multicriterial analysis, aiming at conservation of water resources. The results showed that the Geographic Information System Idrisi Selva combined with advanced analysis technique and the weighted linear combination method proved to be an effective tool in the combination of different criteria, allowing the determination of the adequacy of agricultural land use less subjective way. Environmental criteria were shown to be suitable for the combination and multi-criteria analysis, allowing the preparation of the statement of suitability classes for agricultural use and can be useful for regional planning and decision-making by public bodies and environmental agents because the method takes into account the rational use of land and allowing the conservation of hydrics resources.

Adequação territorial com abordagem multicriterial pela análise da combinação linear ponderada

From the characterization of biophysical attributes of the watershed (slope, soil types, capacity to land use and land cover), this article, used the multi-criteria analysis method – Weighted Linear Combination, defined priority areas for adaptation to the use of land as to its capacity of use. With this methodological approach, were created for the watershed under study, four classes, formed by different combinations of biophysical attributes (discrete data), representing levels of priorities for agricultural land use. The Multicriteria Evaluation in a GIS is suitable for the mapping of priority areas to the suitability of land use in watersheds. The geospatial information on the biophysical environment, generated from the methodological procedures described in this article, has a high positive potential to guide the rational planning of the use of natural resources and territorial occupation, besides serving as a powerful instrument to guide policies and collective processes of decision on the use and land cover.

An Integrated Transport Planning Framework Involving a Combined Utility-Regret Approach

Sustainable transport planning requires an integrated approach involving strategic planning, impact analysis and multi-criteria evaluation. This study aims at relaxing the utility-based decision-making assumption by newly embedding anticipated-regret and combined utility-regret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The framework consists of a two-round Delphi survey, an integrated land-use and transport model for Madrid, and multi-criteria analysis. Results show that (i) regret-based ranking has similar mean but larger variance than utility-based ranking; (ii) the least-regret scenario forms a compromise between the desired and the expected scenarios; (iii) the least-regret scenario can lead to higher user benefits in the short-term and lower user benefits in the long-term; (iv) utility-based, regret-based and combined utility-regret-based multi-criteria analysis result in different rankings of policy packages; and (v) the combined utility-regret ranking is more informative compared with utility-based or regret-based ranking.

Drivers in adopting adaptation strategies to face increased water scarcity in agriculture. A case study in Doñana (Spain) and Makueni (Kenya)

La agricultura es uno de los sectores más afectados por el cambio climático. A pesar de haber demostrado a lo largo de la historia una gran capacidad para adaptarse a nuevas situaciones, hoy en día la agricultura se enfrenta a nuevos retos tales como satisfacer un elevado crecimiento en la demanda de alimentos, desarrollar una agricultura sostenible con el medio ambiente y reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El potencial de adaptación debe ser definido en un contexto que incluya el comportamiento humano, ya que éste juega un papel decisivo en la implementación final de las medidas. Por este motivo, y para desarrollar correctamente políticas que busquen influir en el comportamiento de los agricultores para fomentar la adaptación a estas nuevas condiciones, es necesario entender previamente los procesos de toma de decisiones a nivel individual o de explotación, así como los efectos de los factores que determinan las barreras o motivaciones de la implementación de medidas. Esta Tesis doctoral trata de profundizar en el análisis de factores que influyen en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores para adoptar estrategias de adaptación al cambio climático. Este trabajo revisa la literatura actual y desarrolla un marco metodológico a nivel local y regional. Dos casos de estudio a nivel local (Doñana, España y Makueni, Kenia) han sido llevados a cabo con el fin de explorar el comportamiento de los agricultores hacia la adaptación. Estos casos de estudio representan regiones con notables diferencias en climatología, impactos del cambio climático, barreras para la adaptación y niveles de desarrollo e influencia de las instituciones públicas y privadas en la agricultura. Mientras el caso de estudio de Doñana representa un ejemplo de problemas asociados al uso y escasez del agua donde se espera que se agraven en el futuro, el caso de estudio de Makueni ejemplifica una zona fuertemente amenazada por las predicciones de cambio climático, donde adicionalmente la falta de infraestructura y la tecnología juegan un papel crucial para la implementación de la adaptación. El caso de estudio a nivel regional trata de generalizar en África el comportamiento de los agricultores sobre la implementación de medidas. El marco metodológico que se ha seguido en este trabajo abarca una amplia gama de enfoques y métodos para la recolección y análisis de datos. Los métodos utilizados para la toma de datos incluyen la implementación de encuestas, entrevistas, talleres con grupos de interés, grupos focales de discusión, revisión de estudios previos y bases de datos públicas. Los métodos analíticos incluyen métodos estadísticos, análisis multi‐criterio para la toma de decisiones, modelos de optimización de uso del suelo y un índice compuesto calculado a través de indicadores. Los métodos estadísticos se han utilizado con el fin de evaluar la influencia de los factores socio‐económicos y psicológicos sobre la adopción de medidas de adaptación. Dentro de estos métodos se incluyen regresiones logísticas, análisis de componentes principales y modelos de ecuaciones estructurales. Mientras que el análisis multi‐criterio se ha utilizado con el fin de evaluar las opciones de adaptación de acuerdo a las opiniones de las diferentes partes interesadas, el modelo de optimización ha tenido como fin analizar la combinación óptima de medidas de adaptación. El índice compuesto se ha utilizado para evaluar a nivel regional la implementación de medidas de adaptación en África. En general, los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la gran importancia de considerar diferentes escalas espaciales a la hora de evaluar la implementación de medidas de adaptación al cambio climático. El comportamiento de los agricultores es diferente entre lugares considerados a una escala local relativamente pequeña, por lo que la generalización de los patrones del comportamiento a escalas regionales o globales resulta relativamente compleja. Los resultados obtenidos han permitido identificar factores determinantes tanto socioeconómicos como psicológicos y calcular su efecto sobre la adopción de medidas de adaptación. Además han proporcionado una mejor comprensión del distinto papel que desempeñan los cinco tipos de capital (natural, físico, financiero, social y humano) en la implementación de estrategias de adaptación. Con este trabajo se proporciona información de gran interés en los procesos de desarrollo de políticas destinadas a mejorar el apoyo de la sociedad a tomar medidas contra el cambio climático. Por último, en el análisis a nivel regional se desarrolla un índice compuesto que muestra la probabilidad de adoptar medidas de adaptación en las regiones de África y se analizan las causas que determinan dicha probabilidad de adopción de medidas. ABSTRACT Agriculture is and will continue to be one of the sectors most affected by climate change. Despite having demonstrated throughout history a great ability to adapt, agriculture today faces new challenges such as meeting growing food demands, developing sustainable agriculture and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation policies planned on global, regional or local scales are ultimately implemented in decision‐making processes at the farm or individual level so adaptation potentials have to be set within the context of individual behaviour and regional institutions. Policy instruments can play a formative role in the adoption of such policies by addressing incentives/disincentives that influence farmer’s behaviour. Hence understanding farm‐level decision‐making processes and the influence of determinants of adoption is crucial when designing policies aimed at fostering adoption. This thesis seeks to analyse the factors that influence decision‐making by farmers in relation to the uptake of adaptation options. This work reviews the current knowledge and develops a methodological framework at local and regional level. Whilst the case studies at the local level are conducted with the purpose of exploring farmer’s behaviour towards adaptation the case study at the regional level attempts to up‐scale and generalise theory on adoption of farmlevel adaptation options. The two case studies at the local level (Doñana, Spain and Makueni, Kenya) encompass areas with different; climates, impacts of climate change, adaptation constraints and limits, levels of development, institutional support for agriculture and influence from public and private institutions. Whilst the Doñana Case Study represents an area plagued with water‐usage issues, set to be aggravated further by climate change, Makueni Case study exemplifies an area decidedly threatened by climate change where a lack of infrastructure and technology plays a crucial role in the uptake of adaptation options. The proposed framework is based on a wide range of approaches for collecting and analysing data. The approaches used for data collection include the implementation of surveys, interviews, stakeholder workshops, focus group discussions, a review of previous case studies, and public databases. The analytical methods include statistical approaches, multi criteria analysis for decision‐making, land use optimisation models, and a composite index based on public databases. Statistical approaches are used to assess the influence of socio‐economic and psychological factors on the adoption or support for adaptation measures. The statistical approaches used are logistic regressions, principal component analysis and structural equation modelling. Whilst a multi criteria analysis approach is used to evaluate adaptation options according to the different perspectives of stakeholders, the optimisation model analyses the optimal combination of adaptation options. The composite index is developed to assess adoption of adaptation measures in Africa. Overall, the results of the study highlight the importance of considering various scales when assessing adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. As farmer’s behaviour varies at a local scale there is elevated complexity when generalising behavioural patterns for farmers at regional or global scales. The results identify and estimate the effect of most relevant socioeconomic and psychological factors that influence adoption of adaptation measures to climate change. They also provide a better understanding of the role of the five types of capital (natural, physical, financial, social, and human) on the uptake of farm‐level adaptation options. These assessments of determinants help to explain adoption of climate change measures and provide helpful information in order to design polices aimed at enhancing societal support for adaptation policies. Finally the analysis at the regional level develops a composite index which suggests the likelihood of the regions in Africa to adopt farm‐level adaptation measures and analyses the main causes of this likelihood of adoption.

Building resilience to water scarcity in Southern Spain: A case study of rice farming in Doñana protected wetlands

Agricultural water management needs to evolve in view of increased water scarcity, especially when farming and natural protected areas are closely linked. In the study site of Don?ana (southern Spain), water is shared by rice producers and a world heritage biodiversity ecosystem. Our aim is to contribute to defining adaptation strategies that may build resilience to increasing water scarcity and minimize water conflicts among agricultural and natural systems. The analytical framework links a participatory process with quantitative methods to prioritize the adaptation options. Bottom-up proposed adaptation measures are evaluated by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) that includes both socioeconomic criteria and criteria of the ecosystem services affected by the adaptation options. Criteria weights are estimated by three different methods?analytic hierarchy process, Likert scale and equal weights?that are then compared. Finally, scores from an MCA are input into an optimization model used to determine the optimal land-use distribution in order to maximize utility and land-use diversification according to different scenarios of funds and water availability. While our results show a spectrum of perceptions of priorities among stakeholders, there is one overriding theme that is to define a way to restore part of the rice fields to natural wetlands. These results hold true under the current climate scenario and evenmore so under an increased water scarcity scenario.

Towards mitigation of greenhouse gases by small changes in farming practices: understanding local barriers in Spain.

Small changes in agricultural practices have a large potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the implementation of such practices at the local level is often limited by a range of barriers. Understanding the barriers is essential for defining effective measures, the actual mitigation potential of the measures, and the policy needs to ensure implementation. Here we evaluate behavioural, cultural, and policy barriers for implementation of mitigation practices at the local level that imply small changes to farmers. The choice of potential mitigation practices relevant to the case study is based on a literature review of previous empirical studies. Two methods that include the stakeholders? involvement (experts and farmers) are undertaken for the prioritization of these potential practices: (a) Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) of the choices of an expert panel and (b) Analysis of barriers to implementation based on a survey of farmers. The MCA considers two future climate scenarios ? current climate and a drier and warmer climate scenario. Results suggest that all potential selected practices are suitable for mitigation considering multiple criteria in both scenarios. Nevertheless, if all the barriers for implementation had the same influence, the preferred mitigation practices in the case study would be changes in fertilization management and use of cover crops. The identification of barriers for the implementation of the practices is based on the econometric analysis of surveys given to farmers. Results show that farmers? environmental concerns, financial incentives and access to technical advice are the main factors that define their barriers to implementation. These results may contribute to develop effective mitigation policy to be included in the 2020 review of the European Union Common Agricultural Policy.