Nowhere to hide: informal disease surveillance networks tracing state behaviour

Since the revisions to the International Health Regulations (IHR) in 2005, much attention has turned to how states, particularly developing states, will address core capacity requirements attached to the revised IHR. Primarily, how will states strengthen their capacity to identify and verify public health emergencies of international concern (PHEIC)? Another important but under-examined aspect of the revised IHR is the empowerment of the World Health Organization (WHO) to act upon non-governmental reports of disease outbreaks. The revised IHR potentially marks a new chapter in the powers of ‘disease intelligence’ and how the WHO may press states to verify an outbreak event. This article seeks to understand whether internet surveillance response programs (ISRPs) are effective in ‘naming and shaming’ states into reporting disease outbreaks.

Nutritional support in chronic obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) a randomised trial

Rationale Nutritional support is effective in managing malnutrition in COPD (Collins et al., 2012) leading to functional improvements (Collins et al., 2013). However, comparative trials of first line interventions are lacking. This randomised trial compared the effectiveness of individualised dietary advice by a dietitian (DA) versus oral nutritional supplements (ONS). Methods A target sample of 200 stable COPD outpatients at risk of malnutrition (‘MUST’; medium + high risk) were randomised to either a 12-week intervention of ONS (ONS: ~400 kcal/d, ~40 g/d protein) or DA with supportive written advice. The primary outcome was quality of life (QoL) measured using St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire with secondary outcomes including handgrip strength, body weight and nutritional intake. Both the change from baseline and the differences between groups was analysed using SPSS version 20. Results 84 outpatients were recruited (ONS: 41 vs. DA: 43), 72 completed the intervention (ONS: 33 vs. DA: 39). Mean BMI was 18.2 SD 1.6 kg/m2, age 72.6 SD 10 years, FEV1% predicted 36 SD 15% (severe COPD). In comparison to the DA group, the ONS group experienced significantly greater improvements in protein intakes above baseline values at both week 6 (+21.0 SEM 4.3 g/d vs. +0.52 SEM 4.3 g/d; p < 0.001) and week 12 (+19.0 SEM 5.0 g/d vs. +1.0 SEM 3.6 g/d; p = 0.033;ANOVA). QoL and secondary outcomes remained stable at 12 weeks in both groups with slight improvements in the ONS group but no differences between groups. Conclusion In outpatients at risk of malnutrition with severe COPD, nutritional support involving either ONS or DA appears to maintain in tritional status, functional capacity and QoL. However, larger trials, and earlier, multi-modal nutritional interventions for an extended duration should be explored.

Ross River virus disease activity associated with naturally occurring non-tidal flood events in Australia : A systematic review

Ross River virus (RRV) disease is the most common and widespread mosquito-borne disease in Australia, resulting in considerable health and economic cost to communities. While naturally occurring non-tidal flood events may enhance mosquito abundance, little is known about the impact of such events on RRV transmission. This paper critically reviews the existing evidence for an association between naturally occurring non-tidal flood events and RRV transmission. A systematic literature search was conducted on RRV transmission related to flooding and inundation from rain and riverine overflow. Overall, the evidence to support a positive association between flooding and RRV outbreaks is largely circumstantial, with the literature mostly reporting only coincidental occurrence between the two. However, for the Murray River, river flow and height (surrogates of flooding) were positively and significantly associated with RRV transmission. The association between non-tidal flooding and RRV transmission has not been studied comprehensively. More frequent flood events arising from climate change may result in increased outbreaks of RRV disease. Understanding the link between flood events and RRV transmission is necessary if resources for mosquito spraying and public health warnings are to be utilized more effectively and efficiently.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to excess body weight in South Africa in 2000

Objective. To estimate the burden of disease attributable to excess body weight using the body mass index (BMI), by age and sex, in South Africa in 2000. Design. World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Re-analysis of the 1998 South Africa Demographic and Health Survey data provided mean BMI estimates by age and sex. Populationattributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. Setting. South Africa. Subjects. Adults 30 years of age. Outcome measures. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, hypertensive disease, osteoarthritis, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and selected cancers. Results. Overall, 87% of type 2 diabetes, 68% of hypertensive disease, 61% of endometrial cancer, 45% of ischaemic stroke, 38% of ischaemic heart disease, 31% of kidney cancer, 24% of osteoarthritis, 17% of colon cancer, and 13% of postmenopausal breast cancer were attributable to a BMI 21 kg/m2. Excess body weight is estimated to have caused 36 504 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 31 018 - 38 637) or 7% (95% uncertainty interval 6.0 - 7.4%) of all deaths in 2000, and 462 338 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 396 512 - 478 847) or 2.9% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 2.4 - 3.0%). The burden in females was approximately double that in males. Conclusions. This study shows the importance of recognising excess body weight as a major risk to health, particularly among females, highlighting the need to develop, implement and evaluate comprehensive interventions to achieve lasting change in the determinants and impact of excess body weight.

Burden of decompensated cirrhosis and ascites on hospital services in a tertiary care facility: time for change?

Background Ascites, the most frequent complication of cirrhosis, is associated with poor prognosis and reduced quality of life. Recurrent hospital admissions are common and often unplanned, resulting in increased use of hospital services. Aims To examine use of hospital services by patients with cirrhosis and ascites requiring paracentesis, and to investigate factors associated with early unplanned readmission. Methods A retrospective review of the medical chart and clinical databases was performed for patients who underwent paracentesis between October 2011 and October 2012. Clinical parameters at index admission were compared between patients with and without early unplanned hospital readmissions. Results The 41 patients requiring paracentesis had 127 hospital admissions, 1164 occupied bed days and 733 medical imaging services. Most admissions (80.3%) were for management of ascites, of which 41.2% were unplanned. Of those eligible, 69.7% were readmitted and 42.4% had an early unplanned readmission. Twelve patients died and nine developed spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. Of those eligible for readmission, more patients died (P = 0.008) and/or developed spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (P = 0.027) if they had an early unplanned readmission during the study period. Markers of liver disease, as well as haemoglobin (P = 0.029), haematocrit (P = 0.024) and previous heavy alcohol use (P = 0.021) at index admission, were associated with early unplanned readmission. Conclusion Patients with cirrhosis and ascites comprise a small population who account for substantial use of hospital services. Markers of disease severity may identify patients at increased risk of early readmission. Alternative models of care should be considered to reduce unplanned hospital admissions, healthcare costs and pressure on emergency services.

How costs change with infection prevention efforts

Purpose of review: To describe articles since January 2013 that include information on how costs change with infection prevention efforts. Recent findings: Three articles described only the costs imposed by nosocomial infection and so provided limited information about whether or not infection prevention efforts should be changed. One article was found that described the costs of supplying alcohol-based hand run in low-income countries. Eight articles showed the extra costs and cost savings from changing infection prevention programmes and discussed the health benefits. All concluded that the changes are economically worthwhile. There was a systematic review of the costs of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus control programmes and a methods article for how to make cost estimates for infection prevention programmes. Summary: The balance has shifted away from studies that report the high cost of nosocomial infections toward articles that address the value for money of infection prevention. This is good as simply showing a disease is high cost does not inform decisions to reduce it. More research, done well, on the costs of implementation, cost savings and change to health benefits in this area needs to be done as many gaps exist in our knowledge.

The potential impact of climate change and ultraviolet radiation on vaccine preventable infectious diseases and immunisation service delivery system

Climate change and solar ultraviolet radiation may affect vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPID), the human immune response process and the immunization service delivery system. We systematically reviewed the scientific literature and identified 37 relevant publications. Our study shows that climate variability and ultraviolet radiation may potentially affect VPID and the immunization delivery system through modulating vector reproduction and vaccination effectiveness, possibly influencing human immune response systems to the vaccination, and disturbing immunization service delivery. Further research is needed to determine these affects on climate-sensitive VPID and on human immune response to common vaccines. Such research will facilitate the development and delivery of optimal vaccination programs for target populations, to meet the goal of disease control and elimination.

Benefits and barriers to exercise in midlife women undertaking a web-based multi-modal lifestyle intervention for the primary prevention of chronic disease

Chronic diseases are a leading cause of death and disability, largely attributable to modifiable lifestyle risk factors. Many midlife Australian are getting insufficient physical activity for health and face a range of barriers to exercise. Results of this study provide evidence that benefits and barriers are an important predictor of exercise behaviour in midlife women and, that a 12 week nurse led health promotion program can effectively promote benefits and increase physical activity. This study provides evidence about benefits and barriers to exercise that will inform health promotion practice for chronic disease risk factor reduction in midlife women.

The doomsday vault: Seed banks, food security, and climate change

"It could easily provide the back-drop for a James Bond movie. Deep inside a mountain near the North Pole, down a fortified tunnel, and behind airlocked doors in a vault frozen to -18 degrees Celsius, scientists are squirreling away millions of seed samples. The samples constitute the very foundation of agriculture, the biological diversity needed so the world's major food crops can adapt to the next pest or disease, or to climate change. It's little wonder that the Svalbard Global Seed Vault has captured the public's imagination more than almost any agricultural topic in recent years. Popular press reports about the ‘Doomsday Vault,’ however, typically mask the complexity of the endeavor and, if anything, underestimate its practical utility." Cary Fowler This chapter considers the use of seed banks to address concerns about intellectual property, climate change and food security. It has a number of themes. First of all, it is interested in the use of ‘Big Science’ projects to address pressing global scientific concerns and Millennium Development Goals. Second, it highlights the increasing use of banks as a means of managing both property and intellectual property across a wide range of fields of agriculture and biotechnology. Third, it considers the linkage of intellectual property, access to genetic resources and benefit sharing. There are a variety of positions in this debate. Some see requirements in respect of access to genetic resources and benefit sharing as an inconvenient burden for science and commerce. Others defend access to genetic resources and benefit sharing as meaningful and productive. Those inclined to somewhat more conspiratorial views suggest that access to genetic resources and benefit sharing are a ruse to facilitate biopiracy. This chapter has a number of components. Section I focuses upon the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) network – often raised as a model for Climate Innovation Centres. Section II considers the Svalbard Global Seed Vault – the so-called Doomsday Vault. After a consideration of the World Summit on Food Security in 2009, it is concluded in this chapter that any future international agreement on climate change needs to address intellectual property, plant genetic resources and food security.

Dynamics of gray matter loss in Alzheimer's disease

We detected and mapped a dynamically spreading wave of gray matter loss in the brains of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD). The loss pattern was visualized in four dimensions as it spread over time from temporal and limbic cortices into frontal and occipital brain regions, sparing sensorimotor cortices. The shifting deficits were asymmetric (left hemisphere > right hemisphere) and correlated with progressively declining cognitive status (p < 0.0006). Novel brain mapping methods allowed us to visualize dynamic patterns of atrophy in 52 high-resolution magnetic resonance image scans of 12 patients with AD (age 68.4 ± 1.9 years) and 14 elderly matched controls (age 71.4 ± 0.9 years) scanned longitudinally (two scans; interscan interval 2.1 ± 0.4 years). A cortical pattern matching technique encoded changes in brain shape and tissue distribution across subjects and time. Cortical atrophy occurred in a well defined sequence as the disease progressed, mirroring the sequence of neurofibrillary tangle accumulation observed in cross sections at autopsy. Advancing deficits were visualized as dynamic maps that change over time. Frontal regions, spared early in the disease, showed pervasive deficits later (< 15% loss). The maps distinguished different phases of AD and differentiated AD from normal aging. Local gray matter loss rates (5.3 ± 2.3% per year in AD v 0.9 ± 0.9% per year in controls) were faster in the left hemisphere (p < 0.029) than the right. Transient barriers to disease progression appeared at limbic/frontal boundaries. This degenerative sequence, observed in vivo as it developed, provides the first quantitative, dynamic visualization of cortical atrophic rates in normal elderly populations and in those with dementia.

Association study of genes related to bone formation and resorption and the extent of radiographic change in ankylosing spondylitis

Objective: To identify genetic associations with severity of radiographic damage in ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Method: We studied 1537 AS cases of European descent; all fulfilled the modified New York Criteria. Radiographic severity was assessed from digitised lateral radiographs of the cervical and lumbar spine using the modified Stoke Ankylosing Spondylitis Spinal Score (mSASSS). A two-phase genotyping design was used. In phase 1, 498 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped in 688 cases; these were selected to capture >90% of the common haplotypic variation in the exons, exon-intron boundaries, and 5 kb flanking DNA in the 5' and 3' UTR of 74 genes involved in anabolic or catabolic bone pathways. In phase 2, 15 SNPs exhibiting p<0.05 were genotyped in a further cohort of 830 AS cases; results were analysed both separately and in combination with the discovery phase data. Association was tested by contingency tables after separating the samples into 'mild' and 'severe' groups, defined as the bottom and top 40% by mSASSS, adjusted for gender and disease duration. Results: Experiment-wise association was observed with the SNP rs8092336 (combined OR 0.32, p=1.2×10-5), which lies within RANK (receptor activator of NF?B), a gene involved in osteoclastogenesis, and in the interaction between T cells and dendritic cells. Association was also found with the SNP rs1236913 in PTGS1 (prostaglandin-endoperoxide synthase 1, cyclooxygenase 1), giving an OR of 0.53 (p=2.6×10-3). There was no observed association between radiographic severity and HLA-B*27. Conclusions: These findings support roles for bone resorption and prostaglandins pathways in the osteoproliferative changes in AS.

Co-benefits of addressing climate change can motivate action around the world

Personal and political action on climate change is traditionally thought to be motivated by people accepting its reality and importance. However, convincing the public that climate change is real faces powerful ideological obstacles1, 2, 3, 4, and climate change is slipping in public importance in many countries5, 6. Here we investigate a different approach, identifying whether potential co-benefits of addressing climate change7 could motivate pro-environmental behaviour around the world for both those convinced and unconvinced that climate change is real. We describe an integrated framework for assessing beliefs about co-benefits8, distinguishing social conditions (for example, economic development, reduced pollution or disease) and community character (for example, benevolence, competence). Data from all inhabited continents (24 countries; 6,196 participants) showed that two co-benefit types, Development (economic and scientific advancement) and Benevolence (a more moral and caring community), motivated public, private and financial actions to address climate change to a similar degree as believing climate change is important. Critically, relationships were similar for both convinced and unconvinced participants, showing that co-benefits can motivate action across ideological divides. These relationships were also independent of perceived climate change importance, and could not be explained by political ideology, age, or gender. Communicating co-benefits could motivate action on climate change where traditional approaches have stalled.

Use of observed within-person variation of cardiac troponin in emergency department patients for determination of biological variation and percentage and absolute reference change values

BACKGROUND Many patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) for assessment of possible acute coronary syndrome (ACS) have low cardiac troponin concentrations that change very little on repeat blood draw. It is unclear if a lack of change in cardiac troponin concentration can be used to identify acutely presenting patients at low risk of ACS. METHODS We used the hs-cTnI assay from Abbott Diagnostics, which can detect cTnI in the blood of nearly all people. We identified a population of ED patients being assessed for ACS with repeat cTnI measurement who ultimately were proven to have no acute cardiac disease at the time of presentation. We used data from the repeat sampling to calculate total within-person CV (CV(T)) and, knowing the assay analytical CV (CV(A)), we could calculate within-person biological variation (CV(i)), reference change values (RCVs), and absolute RCV delta cTnI concentrations. RESULTS We had data sets on 283 patients. Men and women had similar CV(i) values of approximately 14%, which was similar at all concentrations <40 ng/L. The biological variation was not dependent on the time interval between sample collections (t = 1.5-17 h). The absolute delta critical reference change value was similar no matter what the initial cTnI concentration was. More than 90% of subjects had a critical reference change value <5 ng/L, and 97% had values of <10 ng/L. CONCLUSIONS With this hs-cTnI assay, delta cTnI seems to be a useful tool for rapidly identifying ED patients at low risk for possible ACS.

Associations between extreme precipitation and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease in urban and rural areas in Hefei, China

Background Understanding the relationship between extreme weather events and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is important in the context of climate change. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between extreme precipitation and childhood HFMD in Hefei, China, and further, to explore whether the association varied across urban and rural areas. Methods Daily data on HFMD counts among children aged 0–14 years from 2010 January 1st to 2012 December 31st were retrieved from Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily data on mean temperature, relative humidity and precipitation during the same period were supplied by Hefei Bureau of Meteorology. We used a Poisson linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the association between extreme precipitation (≥ 90th precipitation) and childhood HFMD, controlling for mean temperature, humidity, day of week, and long-term trend. Results There was a statistically significant association between extreme precipitation and childhood HFMD. The effect of extreme precipitation on childhood HFMD was the greatest at six days lag, with a 5.12% (95% confident interval: 2.7–7.57%) increase of childhood HFMD for an extreme precipitation event versus no precipitation. Notably, urban children and children aged 0–4 years were particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme precipitation. Conclusions Our findings indicate that extreme precipitation may increase the incidence of childhood HFMD in Hefei, highlighting the importance of protecting children from forthcoming extreme precipitation, particularly for those who are young and from urban areas.

Concordance of disease severity among family members with ankylosing spondylitis?

Objective. The heritability of disease activity and function in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) have been estimated at 0.51 and 0.63 (i.e., 51% and 63%), respectively. We examined the concordance of disease severity among family members in terms of disease activity, function, radiological change, prevalence of iritis, and juvenile onset. Methods. Disease activity and functional impairment due to AS were studied using the Bath AS Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) and Functional Index (BASFI) self-administered questionnaires; radiographic involvement was measured using the Bath AS Radiology Index (BASRI) scale. Familial correlation of BASDAI and BASFI was assessed in 406 families with 2 or more cases, using the program PAP. Parent-child and sibling-sibling concordance for iritis and juvenile AS were also studied in these families. Heritability of radiological disease severity based on the BASRI was assessed in 29 families containing 60 affected individuals using the program SOLAR. Results. Correlations between parent-child pairs for disease activity and function were 0.07 for both. Correlations between sibling pairs for disease activity and function were 0.27 and 0.36, respectively. The children of AS parents with iritis were more likely to develop iritis [27/71 (38%)] than children of non-iritis AS parents [13/70 (19%)] (p = 0.01). Parents with JAS were more likely to have children with JAS [17/30 (57%) compared to non-JAS parents 34/111 (30%)] (p = 0.002). The heritability of radiological disease severity based on the BASRI was 0.62. Conclusion. While correlation in severity between parent and child is poor, siblings do resemble each other in terms of severity, supporting the findings of segregation studies indicating significant genetic dominance in the heritable component of disease activity. Significant parent-child concordance for iritis and juvenile disease onset suggest that there are genetic risk factors for these traits independent of those determining the risk of AS itself. The finding of significant heritability of radiological change (BASRI) provides support using an objective measure for the observed heritability of the questionnaire-assessed disease severity scores, ASDAI and BASFI.