A model to forecast financial failure, in non financial galician SMES

We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

Cytomegalovirus seroepidemiology in an urban community of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: After the era of rubella vaccine, cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is one of the most frequently causes of mental retardation and congenital deafness. Seroepidemiological studies are necessary to understand the transmission dynamics of the disease. The purpose of the study was to quantify the transmission rate of CMV disease in a community in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Using ELISA test (IgG), a retrospective serological survey looking for CMV antibodies was performed in an non-immunized community. Frozen sera from 443 individuals, randomly selected by cluster sampling technique in the town of Caieiras, São Paulo, were collected from November 1990 to January 1991. Seroprevalence was stratified by age (0-40 years). Mathematical techniques were applied to determine the age-dependent decay function of maternal antibodies during the first year of life, the age-dependent seroprevalence function and the force of infection for CMV in this community. RESULTS: It was observed a descending phase of seropositivity in the first 9 months, but changes in antibody titration were observed between 8 months old and one year of age. The average age of the first infection was 5.02 months of age and 19.84 years, when the age-dependent seroprevalence and the force of infection were analyzed between 10 months of age and 10 years of age and from 10 to 40 years old, respectively. CONCLUSION: CMV infection is highly prevalent among the population studied and infection occurs in the first year of life. This study shows that most women at reproductive age are vulnerable to the first infection, increasing the risk for congenital infection.

Diferenciação curricular para a inclusão de alunos com necessidade educativas especiais no 1º Ciclo do Ensino Básico

Um dos grandes desafios da atualidade reside em construir uma escola inclusiva para todos, respeitando as diferenças entre os alunos e procurando dar resposta a todas as suas necessidades educativas, através do acesso igualitário a uma educação de qualidade, no sentido de uma preparação para a vida social e profissional ao longo da vida. Desta forma, é necessária uma mudança não só na maneira de pensar como também nas práticas dos agentes educativos, no sentido de adequarem o currículo às necessidades educativas especiais dos alunos. O presente estudo constitui, pois, uma tentativa de conhecer não apenas as conceções dos professores do 1º Ciclo do Ensino Básico sobre a inclusão e as adaptações curriculares para alunos com NEE, mas também as práticas curriculares que desenvolvem quando têm estes alunos nas suas turmas. O trabalho desenvolveu-se através de um estudo de caso, incidindo sobre 6 professores do 1º CEB e respetivas turmas com alunos com NEE incluídos. Como metodologia de recolha de dados utilizámos as técnicas da entrevista, da análise documental e da observação naturalista em contexto de sala de aula. Articulando os resultados das entrevistas com os das observações em sala de aula, podemos concluir que, para que a escola seja efetivamente inclusiva, não basta que os professores adotem este conceito. Algumas das maiores dificuldades que se colocaram aos professores foram a gestão do tempo e a adequação de estratégias no atendimento a todos os alunos, o que decorre da forma de organização do ensino, uma vez que os professores continuam a percecionar o seu papel como transmissores de conteúdos e executores de programas, apostando num ensino unilateral e homogéneo. No entanto, foi possível também verificar algumas formas de diferenciação pedagógica, sobretudo através da adequação da estrutura dos trabalhos individuais, do apoio individualizado do professor aos alunos com mais dificuldades ou da tutoria interpares e da realização de diferentes atividades consoante as necessidades específicas de cada aluno.- ABSTRACT One of today´s main challenges lies on building an inclusive school for everyone, respecting students’ differences, giving an answer to their educational needs through equal access to qualified education, preparing them to their professional future and social life. Consequently, a change is necessary, not only in the way of thinking but also in the practices of the educational agents, to adequate the curriculum to the special educational students’ needs. The present study is an attempt to understand not only the conceptions of the elementary school teachers about the inclusion and the curricular adjustments for students with special educational needs, but also the curricular practices they develop when those students are included in their classes. This work was developed through a study case focused on six elementary school teachers and their respective classes with students with special educational needs included. The data collection methods used were interview techniques, documental analysis and context observation in classroom. Articulating the interview results with the classroom observations we can conclude that for a school to be effectively inclusive, the adoption of those conceptions are not enough. Some of the major difficulties that appear to the teachers were time management and adequate strategies on attending all students, which follows from their teaching organization, since teachers are still carrying their role as pure contents transmitters and programs implementers, investing in a unilateral and homogeneous education. However, it was also possible to ascertain some pedagogical differentiation strategies, mainly through individual work adaptation, direct and individualized teacher’s support to students with more difficulties or by peer tutoring as well as carrying out different activities depending on the specific needs of each student.

Virtual power producers market strategies

This paper presents MASCEM - a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. This paper mainly focus on the MASCEM ability to provide the means to model and simulate Virtual Power Producers (VPP). VPPs are represented as a coalition of agents, with specific characteristics and goals. The paper detail some of the most important aspects considered in VPP formation and in the aggregation of new producers and includes a case study.

MASCEM - an electricity market simulator providing coalition support for virtual power players

This paper presents MASCEM - a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimization techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. This paper mainly focus on the MASCEM ability to provide the means to model and simulate Virtual Power Players (VPP). VPPs are represented as a coalition of agents, with specific characteristics and goals. The paper details some of the most important aspects considered in VPP formation and in the aggregation of new producers and includes a case study based on real data.

Six thinking hats for electricity markets simulation: adapting meeting tools to agent decision

In almost all industrialized countries, the energy sector has suffered a severe restructuring that originated a greater complexity in market players’ interactions. The complexity that these changes brought made way for the creation of decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. MASCEM – “Multiagent Simulator for Competitive Electricity Markets” arose in this context providing a framework for evaluating new rules, new behaviour, and new participants in deregulated electricity markets. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. ALBidS is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM it considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches. The Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives. This tool’s goal is to force the thinker to move outside his habitual thinking style. It was developed to be used mainly at meetings in order to “run better meetings, make faster decisions”. This dissertation presents a study about the applicability of the Six Thinking Hats technique in Decision Support Systems, particularly with the multiagent paradigm like the MASCEM simulator. As such this work’s proposal is of a new agent, a meta-learner based on STH technique that organizes several different ALBidS’ strategies and combines the distinct answers into a single one that, expectedly, out-performs any of them.

Identificação da combinação ótima das fontes de energia renovável de origem hídrica, eólica e fotovoltaica para a integração no sistema elétrico português

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

Identificação modal e simulação da resposta sísmica de barragens abóbada

Trabalho Final de Mestrado elaborado no Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC) para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil pelo Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa no âmbito do protocolo de cooperação ente o ISEL e o LNEC

Synthesis, characterization and reactivity of new cobalt, palladium and nickel complexes bearing α-diimines and P, O ligands

This work describes the synthesis and characterization of a series of new α-diimine and P,O, β-keto and acetamide phosphines ligands, and their complexation to Ni(II), Co(II),Co(III) and Pd(II) to obtain a series of new compounds aiming to study their structural characteristics and to test their catalytic activity. All the compounds synthesized were characterized by the usual spectroscopic and spectrometric techniques: Elemental Analysis, MALDI-TOF-MS spectrometry, IR, UV-vis, 1H, 13C and 31P NMR spectroscopies. Some of the paramagnetic compounds were also characterized by EPR. For the majority of the compounds it was possible to solve their solid state structure by single crystal X-ray diffraction. Tests for olefin polymerization were performed in order to determine the catalytic activity of the Co(II) complexes. Chapter I presents a brief introduction to homogenous catalysis, highlighting the reactions catalyzed by the type of compounds described in this thesis, namely olefin polymerization and oligomerization and reactions catalyzed by the complexes bearing α-diimines and P,O type ligands. Chapter II is dedicated to the description of the synthesis of new α-diimines cobalt (II) complexes, of general formula [CoX2(α-diimine)], where X = Cl or I and the α-diimines are bis(aryl)acenaphthenequinonediimine) (Ar-BIAN) and 1,4-diaryl-2,3-dimethyl-1,4-diaza-1,3-butadiene (Ar-DAB). Structures solved by single crystal X-ray diffraction were obtained for all the described complexes. For some of the compounds, X-band EPR measurements were performed on polycrystalline samples, showing a high-spin Co(II) (S = 3/2) ion, in a distorted axial environment. EPR single crystal experiments on two of the compounds allowed us to determine the g tensor orientation in the molecular structure. In Chapter III we continue with the synthesis and characterization of more cobalt (II)complexes bearing α-diimines of general formula [CoX2(α-diimine)], with X = Cl or I and α-diimines are bis(aryl)acenaphthenequinonediimine) (Ar-BIAN) and 1,4-diaryl-2,3-dimethyl- 1,4-diaza-1,3-butadiene (Ar-DAB). The structures of three of the new compounds synthesized were determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction. A NMR paramagnetic characterization of all the compounds described is presented. Ethylene polymerization tests were done to determine the catalytic activity of several of the Co(II) complexes described in Chapter II and III and their results are shown. In Chapter IV a new rigid bidentate ligand, bis(1-naphthylimino)acenaphthene, and its complexes with Zn(II) and Pd(II), were synthesized. Both the ligand and its complexes show syn and anti isomers. Structures of the ligand and the anti isomer of the Pd(II) complex were solved by single crystal X-ray diffraction. All the compounds were characterized by elemental analysis, MALDI-TOF-MS spectrometry, and by IR, UV-vis, 1H, 13C, 1H-1H COSY, 1H-13C HSQC, 1H-13C HSQC-TOCSY and 1H-1H NOESY NMR when necessary. DFT studies showed that both conformers of [PdCl2(BIAN)] are isoenergetics and can be obtain experimentally. However, we can predict that the isomerization process is not available in square-planar complex, but is possible for the free ligand. The molecular geometry is very similar in both isomers, and only different orientations for naphthyl groups can be expected. Chapter V describes the synthesis of new P, O type ligands, β-keto phosphine, R2PCH2C(O)Ph, and acetamide phosphine R2PNHC(O)Me, as well as a series of new cobalt(III) complexes namely [(η5-C5H5)CoI2{Ph2PCH2C(O)Ph}], and [(η5- C5H5)CoI2{Ph2PNHC(O)Me}]. Treating these Co(III) compounds with an excess of Et3N, resulted in complexes η2-phosphinoenolate [(η5-C5H5)CoI{Ph2PCH…C(…O)Ph}] and η2- acetamide phosphine [(η5-C5H5)CoI{Ph2PN…C(…O)Me}]. Nickel (II) complexes were also obtained: cis-[Ni(Ph2PN…C(…O)Me)2] and cis-[Ni((i-Pr)2PN…C(…O)Me)2]. Their geometry and isomerism were discussed. Seven structures of the compounds described in this chapter were determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction. The general conclusions of this work can be found in Chapter VI.

Análise dos textos escritos produzidos por alunos da 7ª classe em Angola e propostas de remediação de erros

O estudo sobre os textos escritos produzidos por alunos da 7ª classe em Angola foi estabelecido por nós com base na hipótese da existência de dificuldades de escrita. Há bastantes dúvidas entre os docentes angolanos sobre a capacidade dos alunos na elaboração de textos espontâneos. Desta forma, com o objectivo de conhecermos as capacidades de produção de textos escritos pelos alunos do ensino geral no Lubango, de elaborarmos uma tipologia de análise dos erros encontrados e de propormos estratégias de superação das dificuldades apresentadas nos textos dos alunos, fomos à Escola do I Ciclo do Ensino Secundário 27 de Março do Lubango – Huíla recolher as composições da Prova Trimestral para verificar as dificuldades de escrita apresentadas nos textos dos alunos. Partimos de 314 textos, dos quais foi extraída a amostra de 10%, correspondendo a 32 textos seleccionados através da tabela de números aleatórios. Os textos foram analisados com base na tipologia de erros de Sousa (1996). Desta forma, foram detectados erros de substituição, de omissão, de divisão/aglutinação, os quais foram muito significativos e ocorreram em 66,856% dos casos no total. Os erros de substituição maiúsculas/minúsculas, os de adição, de grafias homófonas constituem 30.856% dos casos. Confirmam-se as dificuldades apresentadas pelos alunos que devem merecer tratamento através das propostas de remediação apresentadas. As dificuldades encontradas nos textos destes alunos devem servir de base para a planificação da disciplina de Língua Portuguesa no Ensino Primário de forma a dotar o aluno de competências para a melhoria da comunicação escrita na sala de aula.

Implementação de ferramentas Lean numa empresa de componentes para calçado

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

Corpus e metodologia para o estudo das relações culturais ibéricas: o caso galego-português n’O Commercio do Porto (1927-1936)

O objetivo deste trabalho é contribuir metodologicamente para a pesquisa no estudo das relações culturais na península ibérica, a partir do recurso a corpus elaborados com base na imprensa diária, o que denominamos corpus mediático. Ao longo das páginas seguintes, exporemos (i) em que medida entendemos o estudo primário da imprensa periódica da maior relevância investigadora para a análise das relações entre dois ou mais sistemas culturais e, do mesmo modo, (ii) como a elaboração de corpus deste género pode ser útil e fiável para a análise da(s) natureza(s) das relações objeto de estudo, principalmente através de técnicas de cômputo quantitativo.

The diagnostic and prognostic role of liquid-based cytology: are we ready to monitor therapy and resistance?

Here, we evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic role of liquid-based cytology (LBC) in different body lesions, including thyroid, lung, effusions and malignant breast lesions. LBC has gained consensus after being applied to both non-gynecologic and fine-needle aspiration cytology. Although some remain sceptical regarding the diagnostic efficacy of LBC, mainly when used alone, in recent years, good results have been obtained as long as it showed a high diagnostic accuracy. Here, we discuss the additional possibility of storing material for the application of ancillary techniques (immunocytochemistry–molecular analysis) with several diagnostic and prognostic advantages, which may pave the way for the challenging evaluation of both monitoring responses to treatment and resistance to targeted therapies in thyroid, lung, breast carcinoma or malignant effusions. Furthermore, it provides the use of several molecular spots as specific targets for personalized therapy.

Producció de material docent per a ciència de materials mitjançant microscòpia electrònica de rastreig i làser confocal

Aquest projecte s'ha realitzat al Servei de Microscòpia de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, i ha tingut una durada de dos anys (2006-2008). La finalitat d’aquest projecte ha estat l’elaboració de material didàctic basat en la captació d’imatges i l’edició de recursos pedagògics de suport digital aplicats a la ciència de materials. Es pretén millorar així la qualitat docent de les pràctiques de diverses assignatures dels ensenyaments de Física i d’Enginyeria de Materials utilitzant tècniques d’anàlisi actuals com són la Microscòpia Electrònica de Rastreig (MER) i la Microscòpia Optica (MO). Amb aquest projecte es vol fomentar també el treball interdisciplinari en equip entre professionals (docents i tècnics superiors de recerca) i acostar la teoria de les assignatures a la realització pràctica, facilitant el suport digital necessari per aconseguir un màxim aprofitament a les aules. Les imatges de MER i MO ajudaran als alumnes a familiaritzar-se amb el món de la recerca i la indústria.

Central and Cortical Gray Mater Segmentation of Magnetic Resonance Images of the Fetal Brain

Motivation. The study of human brain development in itsearly stage is today possible thanks to in vivo fetalmagnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques. Aquantitative analysis of fetal cortical surfacerepresents a new approach which can be used as a markerof the cerebral maturation (as gyration) and also forstudying central nervous system pathologies [1]. However,this quantitative approach is a major challenge forseveral reasons. First, movement of the fetus inside theamniotic cavity requires very fast MRI sequences tominimize motion artifacts, resulting in a poor spatialresolution and/or lower SNR. Second, due to the ongoingmyelination and cortical maturation, the appearance ofthe developing brain differs very much from thehomogenous tissue types found in adults. Third, due tolow resolution, fetal MR images considerably suffer ofpartial volume (PV) effect, sometimes in large areas.Today extensive efforts are made to deal with thereconstruction of high resolution 3D fetal volumes[2,3,4] to cope with intra-volume motion and low SNR.However, few studies exist related to the automatedsegmentation of MR fetal imaging. [5] and [6] work on thesegmentation of specific areas of the fetal brain such asposterior fossa, brainstem or germinal matrix. Firstattempt for automated brain tissue segmentation has beenpresented in [7] and in our previous work [8]. Bothmethods apply the Expectation-Maximization Markov RandomField (EM-MRF) framework but contrary to [7] we do notneed from any anatomical atlas prior. Data set &Methods. Prenatal MR imaging was performed with a 1-Tsystem (GE Medical Systems, Milwaukee) using single shotfast spin echo (ssFSE) sequences (TR 7000 ms, TE 180 ms,FOV 40 x 40 cm, slice thickness 5.4mm, in plane spatialresolution 1.09mm). Each fetus has 6 axial volumes(around 15 slices per volume), each of them acquired inabout 1 min. Each volume is shifted by 1 mm with respectto the previous one. Gestational age (GA) ranges from 29to 32 weeks. Mother is under sedation. Each volume ismanually segmented to extract fetal brain fromsurrounding maternal tissues. Then, in-homogeneityintensity correction is performed using [9] and linearintensity normalization is performed to have intensityvalues that range from 0 to 255. Note that due tointra-tissue variability of developing brain someintensity variability still remains. For each fetus, ahigh spatial resolution image of isotropic voxel size of1.09 mm is created applying [2] and using B-splines forthe scattered data interpolation [10] (see Fig. 1). Then,basal ganglia (BS) segmentation is performed on thissuper reconstructed volume. Active contour framework witha Level Set (LS) implementation is used. Our LS follows aslightly different formulation from well-known Chan-Vese[11] formulation. In our case, the LS evolves forcing themean of the inside of the curve to be the mean intensityof basal ganglia. Moreover, we add local spatial priorthrough a probabilistic map created by fitting anellipsoid onto the basal ganglia region. Some userinteraction is needed to set the mean intensity of BG(green dots in Fig. 2) and the initial fitting points forthe probabilistic prior map (blue points in Fig. 2). Oncebasal ganglia are removed from the image, brain tissuesegmentation is performed as described in [8]. Results.The case study presented here has 29 weeks of GA. Thehigh resolution reconstructed volume is presented in Fig.1. The steps of BG segmentation are shown in Fig. 2.Overlap in comparison with manual segmentation isquantified by the Dice similarity index (DSI) equal to0.829 (values above 0.7 are considered a very goodagreement). Such BG segmentation has been applied on 3other subjects ranging for 29 to 32 GA and the DSI hasbeen of 0.856, 0.794 and 0.785. Our segmentation of theinner (red and blue contours) and outer cortical surface(green contour) is presented in Fig. 3. Finally, torefine the results we include our WM segmentation in theFreesurfer software [12] and some manual corrections toobtain Fig.4. Discussion. Precise cortical surfaceextraction of fetal brain is needed for quantitativestudies of early human brain development. Our workcombines the well known statistical classificationframework with the active contour segmentation forcentral gray mater extraction. A main advantage of thepresented procedure for fetal brain surface extraction isthat we do not include any spatial prior coming fromanatomical atlases. The results presented here arepreliminary but promising. Our efforts are now in testingsuch approach on a wider range of gestational ages thatwe will include in the final version of this work andstudying as well its generalization to different scannersand different type of MRI sequences. References. [1]Guibaud, Prenatal Diagnosis 29(4) (2009). [2] Rousseau,Acad. Rad. 13(9), 2006, [3] Jiang, IEEE TMI 2007. [4]Warfield IADB, MICCAI 2009. [5] Claude, IEEE Trans. Bio.Eng. 51(4) (2004). [6] Habas, MICCAI (Pt. 1) 2008. [7]Bertelsen, ISMRM 2009 [8] Bach Cuadra, IADB, MICCAI 2009.[9] Styner, IEEE TMI 19(39 (2000). [10] Lee, IEEE Trans.Visual. And Comp. Graph. 3(3), 1997, [11] Chan, IEEETrans. Img. Proc, 10(2), 2001 [12] Freesurfer,http://surfer.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu.