Optimization and control of a continuous polymerization reactor

This work studies the optimization and control of a styrene polymerization reactor. The proposed strategy deals with the case where, because of market conditions and equipment deterioration, the optimal operating point of the continuous reactor is modified significantly along the operation time and the control system has to search for this optimum point, besides keeping the reactor system stable at any possible point. The approach considered here consists of three layers: the Real Time Optimization (RTO), the Model Predictive Control (MPC) and a Target Calculation (TC) that coordinates the communication between the two other layers and guarantees the stability of the whole structure. The proposed algorithm is simulated with the phenomenological model of a styrene polymerization reactor, which has been widely used as a benchmark for process control. The complete optimization structure for the styrene process including disturbances rejection is developed. The simulation results show the robustness of the proposed strategy and the capability to deal with disturbances while the economic objective is optimized.

An Innovation System Perspective on Adaptation Strategies to Climate Variability and Water Management in India

Government policies play a critical role in influencing market conditions, institutions and overall agricultural productivity. The thesis therefore looks into the history of agriculture development in India. Taking a political economy perspective, the historical account looks at significant institutional and technological innovations carried out in pre- independent and post independent India. It further focuses on the Green Revolution in Asia, as forty years after; the agricultural community still faces the task of addressing recurrent issue of food security amidst emerging challenges, such as climate change. It examines the Green Revolution that took place in India during the late 1960s and 70s in a historical perspective, identifying two factors of institutional change and political leadership. Climate change in agriculture development has become a major concern to farmers, researchers and policy makers alike. However, there is little knowledge on the farmers’ perception to climate change and to the extent they coincide with actual climatic data. Using a qualitative approach,it looks into the perceptions of the farmers in four villages in the states of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. While exploring the adaptation strategies, the chapter looks into the dynamics of who can afford a particular technology and who cannot and what leads to a particular adaptation decision thus determining the adaptive capacity in water management. The final section looks into the devolution of authority for natural resource management to local user groups through the Water Users’ Associations as an important approach to overcome the long-standing challenges of centralized state bureaucracies in India. It addresses the knowledge gap of why some local user groups are able to overcome governance challenges such as elite capture, while others-that work under the design principles developed by Elinor Ostrom. It draws conclusions on how local leadership, can be promoted to facilitate participatory irrigation management.

Structural and procedural properties important in promoting bio-enterprises as alternative livelihoods to pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods

Alternative livelihoods to pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods are increasingly gaining attention in rural development but few empirical evidence exist on how to go about supporting such initiatives. As pastoral and agro-pastoral production conditions change due to various factors including market conditions, climate variability and change, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists are increasingly faced with the challenge of finding alternative livelihoods. Bio-enterprises offer such alternatives or complementary activities for rural actors to adapt to changing socio-ecological conditions. This study examines the roles of bio-enterprise initiatives from a livelihood perspective and identifies the features important for such initiatives to reduce poverty and improve the adaptive capacities of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. It draws on four different bio-enterprise initiatives on agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihoods and on improved natural resources management (NRM) in the drylands of Kenya. Data were collected through interviews, focus group discussions, informal discussions and the study of reports. Results shows among other factors that diversification into enterprises requires cooperation among the stakeholders with their varying experiences in development, NRM and business development. Other factors such as sustained financial support, capacity development to survive the market introduction phase, as well as quantity and quality of the product, are critical. Mentoring proved to be a driver of success in some initiatives.

Efforts and Models of Education for Parents: the Danish Approach

The report examines the relationship between day care institutions, schools and so called “parents unfamiliar to education” as well as the relationship between the institutions. With in Danish public and professional discourse concepts like parents unfamiliar to education are usually referring to environments, parents or families with either no or just very restricted experience of education except for the basic school (folkeskole). The “grand old man” of Danish educational research, Prof. Em. Erik Jørgen Hansen, defines the concept as follows: Parents who are distant from or not familiar with education, are parents without tradition of education and by that fact they are not able to contribute constructively in order to back up their own children during their education. Many teachers and pedagogues are not used to that term; they rather prefer concepts like “socially exposed” or “socially disadvantaged” parents or social classes or strata. The report does not only focus on parents who are not capable to support the school achievements of their children, since a low level of education is usually connected with social disadvantage. Such parents are often not capable of understanding and meeting the demands from side of the school when sending their children to school. They lack the competencies or the necessary competence of action. For the moment being much attention is done from side of the Ministries of Education and Social Affairs (recently renamed Ministry of Welfare) in order to create equal possibilities for all children. Many kinds of expertise (directions, counsels, researchers, etc.) have been more than eager to promote recommendations aiming at achieving the ambitious goal: 2015 95% of all young people should complement a full education (classes 10.-12.). Research results are pointing out the importance of increased participation of parents. In other word the agenda is set for ‘parents’ education’. It seems necessary to underline that Danish welfare policy has been changing rather radical. The classic model was an understanding of welfare as social assurance and/or as social distribution – based on social solidarity. The modern model looks like welfare as social service and/or social investment. This means that citizens are changing role – from user and/or citizen to consumer and/or investor. The Danish state is in correspondence with decisions taken by the government investing in a national future shaped by global competition. The new models of welfare – “service” and “investment” – imply severe changes in hitherto known concepts of family life, relationship between parents and children etc. As an example the investment model points at a new implementation of the relationship between social rights and the rights of freedom. The service model has demonstrated that weakness that the access to qualified services in the field of health or education is becoming more and more dependent of the private purchasing power. The weakness of the investment model is that it represents a sort of “The Winner takes it all” – since a political majority is enabled to make agendas in societal fields former protected by the tripartite power and the rights of freedom of the citizens. The outcome of the Danish development seems to be an establishment of a political governed public service industry which on one side are capable of competing on market conditions and on the other are able being governed by contracts. This represents a new form of close linking of politics, economy and professional work. Attempts of controlling education, pedagogy and thereby the population are not a recent invention. In European history we could easily point at several such experiments. The real news is the linking between political priorities and exercise of public activities by economic incentives. By defining visible goals for the public servants, by introducing measurement of achievements and effects, and by implementing a new wage policy depending on achievements and/or effects a new system of accountability is manufactured. The consequences are already perceptible. The government decides to do some special interventions concerning parents, children or youngsters, the public servants on municipality level are instructed to carry out their services by following a manual, and the parents are no longer protected by privacy. Protection of privacy and minority is no longer a valuable argumentation to prevent further interventions in people’s life (health, food, school, etc.). The citizens are becoming objects of investment, also implying that people are investing in their own health, education, and family. This means that investments in changes of life style and development of competences go hand in hand. The below mentioned programmes are conditioned by this shift.

Adaptation to Changes in the Coffee Value Chain and the Price of Coiffee among Coffee Producers in Two Villages in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

Market liberalization in Tanzania has eroded the monopoly of the cooperative unions by allowing private coffee buyers (PCBs) to compete with them on equal footing. Similarly, farmers groups and primary societies are now allowed to sell coffee at auction. Thus, farmers have various options for selling their coffee. Similarly, the coffee industry has experienced large fluctuations in prices and stagnation in production. How do farmers react to these changes? Can and do farmers profit from different market conditions and sell to different traders at the lower end of the value chain, or do they remain with cooperatives or farmers groups? This study was conducted in Mruwia and Mshiri villages in Moshi Rural district. Whereas Mshiri village remains attached to the Kilimanjaro Native Cooperative Union (KNCU), Mruwia has detached from this organization and sells coffee independently. The sample (103) was randomly selected from the coffee farmers in the two villages. Data were collected through surveys, focus group discussions (FGDs), and socio-anthropological methods (participant-observation, biographies, and thematic interviews). Results indicate that the selection of whom to sell coffee depends largely on farmers’ dependence on coffee and prices, other benefits accrued, and whether the initial costs are covered by buyers. Additionally, most respondents did not sell coffee to PCBs. Thus, prices, the institutional infrastructure, and the structure of local communities were important when making decisions about how and with whom to trade.

Orphan drugs and paediatric medicinal products

While the safety and availability of medicinal products for the majority of adult patients has steadily improved in recent decades, for children and people suffering from rare diseases (orphan diseases) there is a lack of approved medicinal products for these patient populations. Since the research and development of medicinal products is associated with high costs, the costs for paediatric medicinal products and medicines for rare diseases (orphan drugs) may barely be covered under normal market conditions due to the small patient populations. In order to prevent the continued exclusion of children and persons suffering from rare diseases from medical progress and to eliminate the deficits in the research and development of medicinal products for these patient groups, the European Union created, along the lines of the U.S. model, a system of incentives and constraints. Since 2000, under Regulation (EC) No. 141/2000 (Orphan Drug Regulation) there has been an incentive system to encourage the research and development of orphan drugs. With the goal of improving the health of children in Europe, Regulation (EC) No. 1901/2006 (Paediatric Regulation) combines economic incentives with the requirement to conduct paediatric studies. This article explains and comments on the specific regulatory framework for orphan drugs and paediatric medicinal products in the European Union.

A Model of Endogenous Union Density and Membership

We develop a theoretical model of endogenously determined union density and union membership. A union is formed, continued, or dissolved by majority voting. Given the profitability, production technology, and labor and product market conditions, the union determines the reservation wage that is acceptable to the firm. Based on this reservation wage and other subjective factors, workers vote for or against the union. If the union is formed, the firm determines the employment level at the union wage.

Measuring Unemployment Insurance Generosity

In this paper, we develop a methodology to summarize the various policy parameters of an unemployment insurance scheme into a single generosity parameter. Unemployment insurance policies are multdimensional objects. They are typically defined by waiting periods, eligibility duration, benefit levels and asset tests when eligible, which makes intertemporal or international comparisons difficult. To make things worse, labor market conditions, such as the likelihood and duration of unemployment matter when assessing the generosity of different policies. We build a first model with such complex characteristics. Our model features heterogeneous agents that are liquidity constrained but can self-insure. We then build a second model that is similar, except that the unemployment insurance is simpler: it is deprived of waiting periods and agents are eligible forever with constant benefits. We then determine which level of benefits in this second model makes agents indifferent between both unemployment insurance policies. We apply this strategy to the unemployment insurance program of the United Kingdom and study how its generosity evolved over time.

Active Learning and Dynamic Pricing Policies

In this paper, we address the problem of dynamic pricing to optimize the revenue coming from the sales of a limited inventory in a finite time-horizon. A priori, the demand is assumed to be unknown. The seller must learn on the fly. We first deal with the simplest case, involving only one class of product for sale. Furthermore the general situation is considered with a finite number of product classes for sale. In particular, a case in point is the sale of tickets for events related to culture and leisure; in this case, typically the tickets are sold months before the event, thus, uncertainty over actual demand levels is a very a common occurrence. We propose a heuristic strategy of adaptive dynamic pricing, based on experience gained from the past, taking into account, for each time period, the available inventory, the time remaining to reach the horizon, and the profit made in previous periods. In the computational simulations performed, the demand is updated dynamically based on the prices being offered, as well as on the remaining time and inventory. The simulations show a significant profit over the fixed-price strategy, confirming the practical usefulness of the proposed strategy. We develop a tool allowing us to test different dynamic pricing strategies designed to fit market conditions and seller s objectives, which will facilitate data analysis and decision-making in the face of the problem of dynamic pricing.

Climate Change, Water Scarcity in Agriculture and The Country-Level Economic Impacts. A Multimarket Analysis

Climate Change, Water Scarcity in Agriculture and the Country-Level Economic Impacts. A Multimarket Analysis. Abstract: Agriculture could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades. Considering the critical role that water plays for agricultural production, any shock in water availability will have great implications for agricultural production, land allocation, and agricultural prices. In this paper, an Agricultural Multimarket model is developed to analyze climate change impacts in developing countries, accounting for the uncertainty associated with the impacts of climate change. The model has a structure flexible enough to represent local conditions, resource availability, and market conditions. The results suggest different economic consequences of climate change depending on the specific activity, with many distributional effects across regions

A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.

Esquema de Referencia para Acoplamiento Débil entre Sistema Informático y Equipo de Producción

La meta de intercambiabilidad de piezas establecida en los sistemas de producción del siglo XIX, es ampliada en el último cuarto del siglo pasado para lograr la capacidad de fabricación de varios tipos de producto en un mismo sistema de manufactura, requerimiento impulsado por la incertidumbre del mercado. Esta incertidumbre conduce a plantear la flexibilidad como característica importante en el sistema de producción. La presente tesis se ubica en el problema de integración del sistema informático (SI) con el equipo de producción (EP) en la búsqueda de una solución que coadyuve a satisfacer los requerimientos de flexibilidad impuestas por las condiciones actuales de mercado. Se describen antecedentes de los sistemas de producción actuales y del concepto de flexibilidad. Se propone una clasificación compacta y práctica de los tipos de flexibilidad relevantes en el problema de integración SI-EP, con la finalidad de ubicar el significado de flexibilidad en el área de interés. Así mismo, las variables a manejar en la solución son clasificadas en cuatro tipos: Medio físico, lenguajes de programación y controlador, naturaleza del equipo y componentes de acoplamiento. Por otra parte, la característica de reusabilidad como un efecto importante y deseable de un sistema flexible, es planteada como meta en la solución propuesta no solo a nivel aplicación del sistema sino también a nivel de reuso de conceptos de diseño. Se propone un esquema de referencia en tres niveles de abstracción, que permita manejar y reutilizar en forma organizada el conocimiento del dominio de aplicación (integración SI-EP), el desarrollo de sistemas de aplicación genérica así como también la aplicación del mismo en un caso particular. Un análisis del concepto de acoplamiento débil (AD) es utilizado como base en la solución propuesta al problema de integración SI-EP. El desarrollo inicia identificando condiciones para la existencia del acoplamiento débil, compensadores para soportar la operación del sistema bajo AD y los efectos que ocasionan en el sistema informático los cambios en el conjunto de equipos de producción. Así mismo, se introducen como componentes principales del acoplamiento los componentes tecnológico, tarea y rol, a utilizar en el análisis de los requerimientos para el desarrollo de una solución de AD entre SI-EP. La estructura de tres niveles del esquema de referencia propuesto surge del análisis del significado de conceptos de referencia comúnmente reportados en la literatura, tales como arquitectura de referencia, modelo de referencia, marco de trabajo, entre otros. Se presenta un análisis de su significado como base para la definición de cada uno de los niveles de la estructura del esquema, pretendiendo con ello evitar la ambigüedad existente debido al uso indistinto de tales conceptos en la literatura revisada. Por otra parte, la relación entre niveles es definida tomando como base la estructura de cuatro capas planteada en el área de modelado de datos. La arquitectura de referencia, implementada en el primer nivel del esquema propuesto es utilizada como base para el desarrollo del modelo de referencia o marco de trabajo para el acoplamiento débil entre el SI y el EP. La solución propuesta es validada en la integración de un sistema informático de coordinación de flujo y procesamiento de pieza con un conjunto variable de equipos de diferentes tipos, naturaleza y fabricantes. En el ejercicio de validación se abordaron diferentes estándares y técnicas comúnmente empleadas como soporte al problema de integración a nivel componente tecnológico, tales como herramientas de cero configuración (ejemplo: plug and play), estándar OPC-UA, colas de mensajes y servicios web, permitiendo así ubicar el apoyo de estas técnicas en el ámbito del componente tecnológico y su relación con los otros componentes de acoplamiento: tarea y rol. ABSTRACT The interchangeability of parts, as a goal of manufacturing systems at the nineteenth century, is extended into the present to achieve the ability to manufacture various types of products in the same manufacturing system, requirement associated with market uncertainty. This uncertainty raises flexibility as an important feature in the production system. This thesis addresses the problem regarding integration of software system (SS) and the set of production equipment (PE); looking for a solution that contributes to satisfy the requirements of flexibility that the current market conditions impose on manufacturing, particularly to the production floor. Antecedents to actual production systems as well as the concept of flexibility are described and analyzed in detail. A practical and compact classification of flexibility types of relevance to the integration SS-EP problem is proposed with the aim to delimit the meaning of flexibility regarding the area of interest. Also, a classification for the variables involved in the integration problem is presented into four types: Physical media, programming and controller languages, equipment nature and coupling components. In addition, the characteristic of reusability that has been seen as an important and desirable effect of a flexible system is taken as a goal in the proposed solution, not only at system implementation level but also at system design level. In this direction, a reference scheme is proposed consisting of three abstraction levels to systematically support management and reuse of domain knowledge (SS-PE), development of a generic system as well as its application in a particular case. The concept of loose coupling is used as a basis in the development of the proposed solution to the problem of integration SS-EP. The first step of the development process consists of an analysis of the loose coupled concept, identifying conditions for its existence, compensators for system operation under loose coupling conditions as well as effects in the software system caused by modification in the set of production equipment. In addition coupling components: technological, task and role are introduced as main components to support the analysis of requirements regarding loose coupling of SS-PE. The three tier structure of the proposed reference scheme emerges from the analysis of reference concepts commonly reported in the literature, such as reference architecture, reference model and framework, among others. An analysis of these concepts is used as a basis for definition of the structure levels of the proposed scheme, trying to avoid the ambiguity due to the indiscriminate use of such concepts in the reviewed literature. In addition, the relation between adjacent levels of the structure is defined based on the four tiers structure commonly used in the data modelling area. The reference architecture is located as the first level in the structure of the proposed reference scheme and it is utilized as a basis for the development of the reference model or loose coupling framework for SS-PE integration. The proposed solution is validated by integrating a software system (process and piece flow coordination system) with a variable set of production equipment including different types, nature and manufacturers of equipment. Furthermore, in this validation exercise, different standards and techniques commonly used have been taken into account to support the issue of technology coupling component, such as tools for zero configuration (i.e. Plug and Play), message queues, OPC-UA standard, and web services. Through this part of the validation exercise, these integration tools are located as a part of the technological component and they are related to the role and task components of coupling.

Estudio y diseño de un régimen fiscal que optimice la inversión en exploración y producción de hidrocarburos

Los regímenes fiscales que se aplican a los contratos de exploración y desarrollo de petróleo y gas, entre los propietarios del recurso natural (generalmente el país soberano representado por su gobierno) y las compañías operadoras internacionales (COI) que aportan capital, experiencia y tecnología, no han sabido responder a la reciente escalada de los precios del crudo y han dado lugar a que los países productores no estén recibiendo la parte de renta correspondiente al incremento de precios. Esto ha provocado una ola de renegociaciones llegándose incluso a la imposición unilateral de nuevos términos por parte de algunos gobiernos entre los que destacan el caso de Venezuela y Argentina, por ser los más radicales. El objetivo del presente trabajo es el estudio y diseño de un régimen fiscal que, en las actuales condiciones del mercado, consiga que los gobiernos optimicen sus ingresos incentivando la inversión. Para ello se simulan los efectos de siete tipos diferentes de fiscalidades aplicadas a dos yacimientos de características muy distintas y se valoran los resultados. El modelo utilizado para la simulación es el modelo de escenarios, ampliamente utilizado tanto por la comunidad académica como por la industria para comparar el comportamiento de diferentes regímenes fiscales. Para decidir cuál de las fiscalidades estudiadas es la mejor se emplea un método optimización multicriterio. Los criterios que se han aplicado para valorar los resultados recogen la opinión de expertos de la industria sobre qué factores se consideran deseables en un contrato a la hora invertir. El resultado permite delinear las características de un marco fiscal ideal del tipo acuerdo de producción compartida, sin royalties, con un límite alto de recuperación de crudo coste que permita recobrar todos los costes operativos y una parte de los de capital en cualquier escenario de precios, un reparto de los beneficios en función de un indicador de rentabilidad como es la TIR, con un mecanismo de recuperación de costes adicional (uplift) que incentive la inversión y con disposiciones que premien la exploración y más la de alto riesgo como la amortización acelerada de los gastos de capital o una ampliación de la cláusula de ringfence. Un contrato con estas características permitirá al gobierno optimizar los ingresos obtenidos de sus reservas de petróleo y gas maximizando la producción al atraer inversión para la exploración y mejorar la recuperación alargando la vida del yacimiento. Además al reducir el riesgo percibido por el inversor que recupera sus costes, menor será la rentabilidad exigida al capital invertido y por tanto mayor la parte de esos ingresos que irá a parar al gobierno del país productor. ABSTRACT Fiscal systems used in petroleum arrangements between the owners of the resource (usually a sovereign country represented by its government) and the international operating company (IOC) that provides capital, knowhow and technology, have failed to allocate profits from the recent escalation of oil prices and have resulted in producing countries not receiving the right share of that increase. This has caused a wave of renegotiations and even in some cases, like Venezuela and Argentina, government unilaterally imposed new terms. This paper aims to outline desirable features of a petroleum fiscal system, under current market conditions, for governments to maximize their revenues while encouraging investment. Firstly the impact of seven different types of fiscal regimes is studied with a simulation for two separate oil fields using the scenario approach. The scenario approach has been frequently employed by academic and business researchers to compare the performance of diverse fiscal regimes. In order to decide which of the fiscal regimes’ performance is best we used a multi-objective optimization decision making approach to assess the results. The criteria applied gather the preferences of a panel of industry experts about the desirable features of a contract when making investment decisions. The results show the characteristics of an ideal fiscal framework that closely resembles a production sharing contract, with no royalty payment and a high cost recovery limit that allows the IOC to recover all operating expenses and a share of its capital costs under any price scenario, a profit oil sharing mechanism based on a profitability indicator such as the ROR, with an uplift that allows to recover an additional percentage of capital costs and provisions that promote exploration investment, specially high-risk exploration, such as accelerated depreciation for capital costs and a wide definition of the ringfence clause. A contract with these features will allow governments to optimize overall revenues from its petroleum resources maximizing production by promoting investment on exploration and extending oil fields life. Also by reducing the investor’s perception of risk it will reduce the minimum return to capital required by the IOC and therefore it will increase the government share of those revenues.

Tiempo de desplazamiento al trabajo y desajuste educativo en el mercado de trabajo español

En este trabajo se analiza cómo el tiempo de trayecto y las características de los mercados laborales locales influyen en el desajuste puesto de trabajo- nivel educativo del individuo, basado en la hipótesis de que los individuos que tienen un mayor tiempo de trayecto al trabajo y mejores condiciones en mercado laboral se asocian a una menor incidencia de la sobreeducación. La sobreeducación afecta a 17 % de los trabajadores en España, y se eleva al 22,4 % para los trabajadores menores de 35 años. El análisis se basa en los datos individuales de los trabajadores españoles que se refiere al período inicial de la crisis económica mundial (2007-2010). La variable dependiente, desajuste educativo-puesto se mide mediante el método subjetivo, basado en las respuestas del individuo a la pregunta de cómo ajusta su nivel de educación a las necesidades del trabajo que actualmente ocupan. La variable de interés son: (a) el tiempo de trayecto, es decir, el tiempo que tarda el individuo en llegar a su trabajo, y (b) dos variables que tienen en cuenta de las condiciones del mercado local: la tasa regional de desempleo (esta variable se refieren a la división territorial de España a nivel NUTS 2 y desglose por sexo y nivel de educación de cada Comunidad Autónoma sobre la base de las cifras medias anuales de la Encuesta de Población Activa española (EPA) para el período 2007-2010) y el tamaño del municipio. Se incluyen las variables de control habituales relativas al puesto de trabajo y variables dummy de los años de la muestra. Los resultados sugieren que las difíciles condiciones de trabajo regionales en términos de altas tasas de desempleo pueden actuar contra el efecto hipotético de la movilidad en la reducción del desajuste educativo, por lo tanto, se obtiene a una conclusión opuesta a la planteada en algunos trabajos anteriores.

Commitments or prohibition? The EU antitrust dilemma. Bruegel Policy Brief 2014/01, 31 January 2014

The issue: Excluding cartels, most investigations into suspected infringements of European Union competition law are resolved with ‘commitment decisions’. The European Commission drops the case in exchange for a commitment from the company under investigation to implement measures to stop the presumed anti-competitive behaviour. Commitment decisions are considered speedier than formal sanctions (prohibition decisions) in restoring normal competitive market conditions. They have a cost, however: commitments are voluntary and are unlikely to be subject to judicial review. This reduces the European Commission’s incentive to build a robust case. Because commitment decisions do not establish any legal precedent, they provide for little guidance on the interpretation of the law. Policy challenge: The European Commission relies increasingly on commitment decisions. More transparency on the substance of allegations, and the establishment of a higher number of legal precedents, are however necessary. This applies in particular to cases that tackle antitrust issues in new areas, such as markets for digital goods, in which companies might find it difficult to assess if a certain behaviour constitutes a violation of competition rules. To ensure greater transparency and mitigate some of the drawbacks of commitment decisions, while retaining their main benefits, the full detail of the objections addressed by the European Commission to defendants should be published.