Long-term changes to the frequency of occurrence of British moths are consistent with opposing and synergistic effects of climate and land-use changes

1. Species’ distributions are likely to be affected by a combination of environmental drivers. We used a data set of 11 million species occurrence records over the period 1970–2010 to assess changes in the frequency of occurrence of 673 macro-moth species in Great Britain. Groups of species with different predicted sensitivities showed divergent trends, which we interpret in the context of land-use and climatic changes. 2. A diversity of responses was revealed: 260 moth species declined significantly, whereas 160 increased significantly. Overall, frequencies of occurrence declined, mirroring trends in less species-rich, yet more intensively studied taxa. 3. Geographically widespread species, which were predicted to be more sensitive to land use than to climate change, declined significantly in southern Britain, where the cover of urban and arable land has increased. 4. Moths associated with low nitrogen and open environments (based on their larval host plant characteristics) declined most strongly, which is also consistent with a land-use change explanation. 5. Some moths that reach their northern (leading edge) range limit in southern Britain increased, whereas species restricted to northern Britain (trailing edge) declined significantly, consistent with a climate change explanation. 6. Not all species of a given type behaved similarly, suggesting that complex interactions between species’ attributes and different combinations of environmental drivers determine frequency of occurrence changes. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our findings are consistent with large-scale responses to climatic and land-use changes, with some species increasing and others decreasing. We suggest that land-use change (e.g. habitat loss, nitrogen deposition) and climate change are both major drivers of moth biodiversity change, acting independently and in combination. Importantly, the diverse responses revealed in this species-rich taxon show that multifaceted conservation strategies are needed to minimize negative biodiversity impacts of multiple environmental changes. We suggest that habitat protection, management and ecological restoration can mitigate combined impacts of land-use change and climate change by providing environments that are suitable for existing populations and also enable species to shift their ranges.

Can site and landscape-scale environmental attributes buffer bird populations against weather events?

Projected impacts of climate change on the populations and distributions of species pose a challenge for conservationists. In response, a number of adaptation strategies to enable species to persist in a changing climate have been proposed. Management to maximise the quality of habitat at existing sites may reduce the magnitude or frequency of climate-driven population declines. In addition large-scale management of landscapes could potentially improve the resilience of populations by facilitating inter-population movements. A reduction in the obstacles to species’ range expansion, may also allow species to track changing conditions better through shifts to new locations, either regionally or locally. However, despite a strong theoretical base, there is limited empirical evidence to support these management interventions. This makes it difficult for conservationists to decide on the most appropriate strategy for different circumstances. Here extensive data from long-term monitoring of woodland birds at individual sites are used to examine the two-way interactions between habitat and both weather and population count in the previous year. This tests the extent to which site-scale and landscape-scale habitat attributes may buffer populations against variation in winter weather (a key driver of woodland bird population size) and facilitate subsequent population growth. Our results provide some support for the prediction that landscape-scale attributes (patch isolation and area of woodland habitat) may influence the ability of some woodland bird species to withstand weather-mediated population declines. These effects were most apparent among generalist woodland species. There was also evidence that several, primarily specialist, woodland species are more likely to increase following population decline where there is more woodland at both site and landscape scales. These results provide empirical support for the concept that landscape-scale conservation efforts may make the populations of some woodland bird species more resilient to climate change. However in isolation, management is unlikely to provide a universal benefit to all species.

Multivariate measurement error models based on scale mixtures of the skew-normal distribution

Scale mixtures of the skew-normal (SMSN) distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal (SN) distribution as a special case. The main advantage of these classes of distributions is that they are easy to simulate and have a nice hierarchical representation facilitating easy implementation of the expectation-maximization algorithm for the maximum-likelihood estimation. In this paper, we assume an SMSN distribution for the unobserved value of the covariates and a symmetric scale mixtures of the normal distribution for the error term of the model. This provides a robust alternative to parameter estimation in multivariate measurement error models. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the SN, skew-t, skew-slash and skew-contaminated normal distributions. The results and methods are applied to a real data set.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for the Grubbs` model under heavy-tailed distributions

The Grubbs` measurement model is frequently used to compare several measuring devices. It is common to assume that the random terms have a normal distribution. However, such assumption makes the inference vulnerable to outlying observations, whereas scale mixtures of normal distributions have been an interesting alternative to produce robust estimates, keeping the elegancy and simplicity of the maximum likelihood theory. The aim of this paper is to develop an EM-type algorithm for the parameter estimation, and to use the local influence method to assess the robustness aspects of these parameter estimates under some usual perturbation schemes, In order to identify outliers and to criticize the model building we use the local influence procedure in a Study to compare the precision of several thermocouples. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative fractography by digital image processing: NIH Image macro tools for stereo pair analysis and 3-D reconstruction

A set of NIH Image macro programs was developed to make qualitative and quantitative analyses from digital stereo pictures produced by scanning electron microscopes. These tools were designed for image alignment, anaglyph representation, animation, reconstruction of true elevation surfaces, reconstruction of elevation profiles, true-scale elevation mapping and, for the quantitative approach, surface area and roughness calculations. Limitations on time processing, scanning techniques and programming concepts are also discussed.

Caracterização macro, meso e microscópica das estruturas frágeis do corpo arenítico conglomerático da região de Santana do Acaraú (CE) e seu embasamento circundante

The structural framework of the sedimentary basins usually plays an important role in oil prospects and reservoirs. Geometry, interconectivity and density of the brittle features developed during basin evolution could change the permo-porous character of the rocks involved in generation, migration and entrapment of fluid flow. Once the structural characterization of the reservois using only sub-surface data is not an easy task, many studies are focused in analogous outcrops trying to understand the main processes by which brittle tectonic is archieved. In the Santana do Acaraú region (Ceará state, NE Brazil) a pack of conglomeratic sandstone (here named CAC) has its geometry controlled mainly by NE trending faults, interpreted as related to reactivation of a precambrian Sobral Pedro II Lineament (LSP-II). Geological mapping of the CAC showed a major NE-SW trending synform developed before its complete lithification during a dextral transpression. This region was then selected to be studied in details in order of constrain the cretaceous deformation and so help the understanding the deformation of the basins along the brazilian equatorial margin. In order to characterize the brittle deformation in different scales, I study some attributes of the fractures and faults such as orientation, density, kinematic, opening, etc., through scanlines in satellite images, outcrops and thin sections. The study of the satellite images showed three main directions of the macrostructures, N-S, NE-SW and E-W. Two of theses features (N-S and E-W) are in aggreement with previous geophysical data. A bimodal pattern of the lineaments in the CAC´s basement rocks has been evidenciated by the NE and NW sets of structures obtained in the meso and microscale data. Besides the main dextral transpression two others later events, developed when the sediments were complety lithified, were recognized in the area. The interplay among theses events is responsible for the compartimentation of the CAC in several blocks along within some structural elements display diferents orientations. Based on the variation in the S0 orientation, the CAC can be subdivided in several domains. Dispite of the variations in orientations of the fractures/faults in the diferents domains, theses features, in the meso and microscopic scale, are concentrated in two sets (based on their trend) in all domains which show similar orientation of the S0 surface. Thus the S0 orientation was used to group the domains in three major sets: i) The first one is that where S0 is E-W oriented: the fractures are oriented mainly NE with the development of a secondary NW trending; ii) S0 trending NE: the fractures are concentrated mainly along the trend NW with a secondary concentration along the NE trend; iii) The third set, where S0 is NS the main fractures are NE and the secondary concentration is NW. Another analized parameter was the fault/fracture length. This attribute was studied in diferent scales trying to detect the upscale relationship. A terrain digital model (TDM) was built with the brittlel elements supperposed. This model enhanced a 3D visualization of the area as well as the spatial distribution of the fault/fractures. Finally, I believe that a better undertanding of the brittle tectonic affecting both CAC and its nearby basement will help the future interpretations of the tectonic envolved in the development of the sedimentary basins of the brazilian equatorial margin and their oil reservoirs and prospects, as for instance the Xaréu field in the Ceará basin, which subsurface data could be correlated with the surface ones

Are large-scale distributional shifts of the blue-winged macaw (Primolius maracana) related to climate change?

Aim To evaluate whether observed geographical shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw (Primolius maracana) are related to ongoing processes of global climate change. This species is vulnerable to extinction and has shown striking range retractions in recent decades, withdrawing broadly from southern portions of its historical distribution. Its range reduction has generally been attributed to the effects of habitat loss; however, as this species has also disappeared from large forested areas, consideration of other factors that may act in concert is merited.Location Historical distribution of the blue-winged macaw in Brazil, eastern Paraguay and northern Argentina.Methods We used a correlative approach to test a hypothesis of causation of observed shifts by reduction of habitable areas mediated by climate change. We developed models of the ecological niche requirements of the blue-winged macaw, based on point-occurrence data and climate scenarios for pre-1950 and post-1950 periods, and tested model predictivity for anticipating geographical distributions within time periods. Then we projected each model to the other time period and compared distributions predicted under both climate scenarios to assess shifts of habitable areas across decades and to evaluate an explanation for observed range retractions.Results Differences between predicted distributions of the blue-winged macaw over the twentieth century were, in general, minor and no change in suitability of landscapes was predicted across large areas of the species' original range in different time periods. No tendency towards range retraction in the south was predicted, rather conditions in the southern part of the species' range tended to show improvement for the species.Main conclusions Our test permitted elimination of climate change as a likely explanation for the observed shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw, and points rather to other causal explanations (e.g. changing regional land use, emerging diseases).

Measurement of Dijet Angular Distributions at s=1.96 TeV and Searches for Quark Compositeness and Extra Spatial Dimensions

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Measurement of Dijet Angular Distributions and Search for Quark Compositeness in pp Collisions at root s=7 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Search for quark compositeness in dijet angular distributions from pp collisions at root s=7 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Multifractal characterization of saprolite particle-size distributions after topsoil removal

Multifractal analysis is now increasingly used to characterize soil properties as it may provide more information than a single fractal model. During the building of a large reservoir on the Parana River (Brazil), a highly weathered soil profile was excavated to a depth between 5 and 8 m. Excavation resulted in an abandoned area with saprolite materials and, in this area, an experimental field was established to assess the effectiveness of different soil rehabilitation treatments. The experimental design consisted of randomized blocks. The aim of this work was to characterize particle-size distributions of the saprolite material and use the information obtained to assess between-block variability. Particle-size distributions of the experimental plots were characterized by multifractal techniques. Ninety-six soil samples were analyzed routinely for particle-size distribution by laser diffractometry in a range of scales, varying from 0.390 to 2000 mu m. Six different textural classes (USDA) were identified with a clay content ranging from 16.9% to 58.4%. Multifractal models described reasonably well the scaling properties of particle-size distributions of the saprolite material. This material exhibits a high entropy dimension, D-1. Parameters derived from the left side (q > 0) of the f(alpha) spectra, D-1, the correlation dimension (D-2) and the range (alpha(0)-alpha(q+)), as well as the total width of the spectra (alpha(max) - alpha(min)) all showed dependence on the clay content. Sand, silt and clay contents were significantly different among treatments as a consequence of soil intrinsic variability. The D, and the Holder exponent of order zero, alpha(0), were not significantly different between treatments; in contrast, D-2 and several fractal attributes describing the width of the f(alpha) spectra were significantly different between treatments. The only parameter showing significant differences between sampling depths was (alpha(0) - alpha(q+)). Scale independent fractal attributes may be useful for characterizing intrinsic particle-size distribution variability. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geotechnical and structural behavior of the railroad track in large-scale apparatus

This paper analyses the static and dynamic behavior of the railroad track model in laboratory. Measurements of stresses and strains on a large-scale railroad track apparatus were studied. The model includes: compacted soil, representing the final layers of platform, ballast layer, and ties (steel, wooden, and pre-stressed concrete). The soil and soil ballast interface were instrumented with pneumatic stress gauge. Settlement measurement device were positioned at the same levels as the load cells. Loads were applied by hydraulic actuators, statically and dynamically. After the prescribed number of load cycles, in pre-determined intervals, stresses and strains were measured. Observations indicate that stress and strain distributions, transmitted by wooden or steel ties, behave similarly. A more favorable behavior was observed with pre-stressed concrete mono block ties. Non-linear response was observed after a threshold numbers of cycles were surpassed, showing that the strain modulus increases with the numbers of cycles. © 2009 IOS Press.

Search for quark contact interactions and extra spatial dimensions using dijet angular distributions in proton–proton collisions at √s = 8 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Efeito das relações bióticas sobre o estabelecimento de macroalgas de ecossistemas lóticos tropicais: interação com microalgas e pressão por herbivoria

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

An Asymmetric Extension for the Family of Elliptical Slash Distributions

In this article, we introduce an asymmetric extension to the univariate slash-elliptical family of distributions studied in Gomez et al. (2007a). This new family results from a scale mixture between the epsilon-skew-symmetric family of distributions and the uniform distribution. A general expression is presented for the density with special cases such as the normal, Cauchy, Student-t, and Pearson type II distributions. Some special properties and moments are also investigated. Results of two real data sets applications are also reported, illustrating the fact that the family introduced can be useful in practice.