Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

Modeling the effectiveness of counterterrorism interventions

After the terrorist attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001, terrorism and counter-terrorism efforts moved to the front of popular consciousness and became the focus of national security for governments worldwide. With this increased attention came an urgent interest in understanding and identifying what works in fighting terrorism (Belasco 2010). For Australia, understanding the relative effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts in nearby neighbours of Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines is highly relevant for our country's national security. Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines are all countries that are important to Australia not just because of geographic proximity, but also because of a history of economic ties and the role these countries play as Australia’s regional partners...

Creation of a new evaluation benchmark for information retrieval targeting patient information needs

Searching for health advice on the web is becoming increasingly common. Because of the great importance of this activity for patients and clinicians and the effect that incorrect information may have on health outcomes, it is critical to present relevant and valuable information to a searcher. Previous evaluation campaigns on health information retrieval (IR) have provided benchmarks that have been widely used to improve health IR and record these improvements. However, in general these benchmarks have targeted the specialised information needs of physicians and other healthcare workers. In this paper, we describe the development of a new collection for evaluation of effectiveness in IR seeking to satisfy the health information needs of patients. Our methodology features a novel way to create statements of patients’ information needs using realistic short queries associated with patient discharge summaries, which provide details of patient disorders. We adopt a scenario where the patient then creates a query to seek information relating to these disorders. Thus, discharge summaries provide us with a means to create contextually driven search statements, since they may include details on the stage of the disease, family history etc. The collection will be used for the first time as part of the ShARe/-CLEF 2013 eHealth Evaluation Lab, which focuses on natural language processing and IR for clinical care.

Overview of the ShARe/CLEF eHealth Evaluation Lab 2013

Discharge summaries and other free-text reports in healthcare transfer information between working shifts and geographic locations. Patients are likely to have difficulties in understanding their content, because of their medical jargon, non-standard abbreviations,and ward-specific idioms. This paper reports on an evaluation lab with an aim to support the continuum of care by developing methods and resources that make clinical reports in English easier to understand for patients, and which helps them in finding information related to their condition.

ShARe/CLEF eHealth Evaluation Lab 2013, Task 3: Information retrieval to address patients' questions when reading clinical reports

This paper presents the results of task 3 of the ShARe/CLEF eHealth Evaluation Lab 2013. This evaluation lab focuses on improving access to medical information on the web. The task objective was to investigate the effect of using additional information such as the discharge summaries and external resources such as medical ontologies on the IR effectiveness. The participants were allowed to submit up to seven runs, one mandatory run using no additional information or external resources, and three each using or not using discharge summaries.

Salaries, recruitment, and retention for CRNA faculty - Part 1

The nature of differences in salaries between academic faculty and Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNAs) working in clinical positions using recently collected data are explored. The differences in median salaries among program directors, assistant program directors, academic faculty, and clinical faculty are large. Furthermore, survey results imply that the most important barrier to recruiting teaching faculty is salary differentials. Part 1 of this 2-part column discusses salaries, recruitment, and retention of CRNA faculty; Part 2, to be published in the June 2008 issue, will focus on clinical faculty contributions to the education of CRNAs.

Clinical faculty : major contributors to the education of new CRNAs - Part 2

This study examines the important contributions of clinical faculty toward the education of the future workforce of Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNAs). Differences in workload, work activities and income among clinical faculty, academic faculty and nonfaculty are examined. This is Part 2 of a 2-part column. Part 1, published in the April 2008 AANA Journal discussed salaries, recruitment, and retention of CRNA faculty.

Supply, demand, and equilibrium in the market for CRNAs

This study determined the current trends in supply, demand, and equilibrium (ie, the level of employment where supply equals demand) in the market for Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNAs). It also forecasts future needs for CRNAs given different possible scenarios. The impact of the current availability of CRNAs, projected retirements, and changes in the demand for surgeries are considered in relation to CRNAs needed for the future. The study used data from many sources to estimate models associated with the supply and demand for CRNAs and the relationship to relevant community and policy characteristics such as per capita income of the community and managed care. These models were used to forecast changes in surgeries and in the supply of CRNAs in the future. The supply of CRNAs has increased in recent years, stimulated by shortages of CRNAs and subsequent increases in the number of CRNAs trained. However, the increases have not offset the number of retiring CRNAs to maintain a constant age in the CRNA population. The average age will continue to increase for CRNAs in the near future despite increases in CRNAs trained. The supply of CRNAs in relation to surgeries will increase in the near future.

Blood transfer devices for malaria rapid diagnostic tests : evaluation of accuracy, safety and ease of use

Background: Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are increasingly used by remote health personnel with minimal training in laboratory techniques. RDTs must, therefore, be as simple, safe and reliable as possible. Transfer of blood from the patient to the RDT is critical to safety and accuracy, and poses a significant challenge to many users. Blood transfer devices were evaluated for accuracy and precision of volume transferred, safety and ease of use, to identify the most appropriate devices for use with RDTs in routine clinical care. Methods: Five devices, a loop, straw-pipette, calibrated pipette, glass capillary tube, and a new inverted cup device, were evaluated in Nigeria, the Philippines and Uganda. The 227 participating health workers used each device to transfer blood from a simulated finger-prick site to filter paper. For each transfer, the number of attempts required to collect and deposit blood and any spilling of blood during transfer were recorded. Perceptions of ease of use and safety of each device were recorded for each participant. Blood volume transferred was calculated from the area of blood spots deposited on filter paper. Results: The overall mean volumes transferred by devices differed significantly from the target volume of 5 microliters (p < 0.001). The inverted cup (4.6 microliters) most closely approximated the target volume. The glass capillary was excluded from volume analysis as the estimation method used is not compatible with this device. The calibrated pipette accounted for the largest proportion of blood exposures (23/225, 10%); exposures ranged from 2% to 6% for the other four devices. The inverted cup was considered easiest to use in blood collection (206/ 226, 91%); the straw-pipette and calibrated pipette were rated lowest (143/225 [64%] and 135/225 [60%] respectively). Overall, the inverted cup was the most preferred device (72%, 163/227), followed by the loop (61%, 138/227). Conclusions: The performance of blood transfer devices varied in this evaluation of accuracy, blood safety, ease of use, and user preference. The inverted cup design achieved the highest overall performance, while the loop also performed well. These findings have relevance for any point-of-care diagnostics that require blood sampling.

Overview of the ShARe/CLEF eHealth Evaluation Lab 2014

This paper reports on the 2nd ShARe/CLEFeHealth evaluation lab which continues our evaluation resource building activities for the medical domain. In this lab we focus on patients' information needs as opposed to the more common campaign focus of the specialised information needs of physicians and other healthcare workers. The usage scenario of the lab is to ease patients and next-of-kins' ease in understanding eHealth information, in particular clinical reports. The 1st ShARe/CLEFeHealth evaluation lab was held in 2013. This lab consisted of three tasks. Task 1 focused on named entity recognition and normalization of disorders; Task 2 on normalization of acronyms/abbreviations; and Task 3 on information retrieval to address questions patients may have when reading clinical reports. This year's lab introduces a new challenge in Task 1 on visual-interactive search and exploration of eHealth data. Its aim is to help patients (or their next-of-kin) in readability issues related to their hospital discharge documents and related information search on the Internet. Task 2 then continues the information extraction work of the 2013 lab, specifically focusing on disorder attribute identification and normalization from clinical text. Finally, this year's Task 3 further extends the 2013 information retrieval task, by cleaning the 2013 document collection and introducing a new query generation method and multilingual queries. De-identified clinical reports used by the three tasks were from US intensive care and originated from the MIMIC II database. Other text documents for Tasks 1 and 3 were from the Internet and originated from the Khresmoi project. Task 2 annotations originated from the ShARe annotations. For Tasks 1 and 3, new annotations, queries, and relevance assessments were created. 50, 79, and 91 people registered their interest in Tasks 1, 2, and 3, respectively. 24 unique teams participated with 1, 10, and 14 teams in Tasks 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The teams were from Africa, Asia, Canada, Europe, and North America. The Task 1 submission, reviewed by 5 expert peers, related to the task evaluation category of Effective use of interaction and targeted the needs of both expert and novice users. The best system had an Accuracy of 0.868 in Task 2a, an F1-score of 0.576 in Task 2b, and Precision at 10 (P@10) of 0.756 in Task 3. The results demonstrate the substantial community interest and capabilities of these systems in making clinical reports easier to understand for patients. The organisers have made data and tools available for future research and development.

Keeping our nursing and midwifery workforce : factors that support non-practising clinicians to return to practice

BACKGROUND: Within Australia and internationally (Health Workforce Australia, 2012) an increasing and on-going nursing workforce shortage is documented. Recent international estimates indicate that there will be ongoing and significant gaps in the supply of a nursing workforce; the United Kingdom is predicted to have a reduction of 12.12% nurses over the coming eight years if a current 'steady state' is maintained (Buchan and Seacombe, 2011); Canada is predicted to have a shortage of 60,000 nurses by 2022 (Tomblin et al., 2012) with Australia's anticipated nursing shortage reported as over 90,000 by the year 2025 (Health Workforce Australia, 2012). Queensland Health in response to their tracked emerging nursing and midwifery workforce shortages developed a nursing and midwifery refresher programme to return registered staff back to the workforce. A study was undertaken between 2008 and 2010 to provide an understanding of how non-practising nurses and midwives maybe supported back into the workforce. METHODS: Programme applicants (444) were invited to respond to an on-line survey designed to understand what aspects of the programme supported their learning and ability to return to the workforce. This number represents those who applied but not all completed or commenced the programme. Descriptive statistics (Polit and Beck, 2008) were used to collate quantifiable survey responses and free text and unsolicited responses were themed. RESULTS: The survey received a 35.5% response rate (n=158) with a return of 20% of unsolicited comments in the form of e-mail responses which were included in the themed results. Key themes supporting participants' learning and ability to return to the workforce were: Respondents were 94% female and 6% male, with 37.7% >51 years of age. Child rearing was the foremost reason for female staff relinquishing workforce roles (36.6%). The primary reason for returning to the workforce was maintenance of registration (40.5%). Both theory and clinical placement components were seen by participants as contributing to their confidence to return to the health workforce. CONCLUSION: The Queensland Nursing and Midwifery Refresher Programs provided a structured programme for registered, non-practising nurses and midwives to return to the Queensland Health workforce. Responses indicated that clinical supervision and contract learning should be central to a return to workforce induction programme for registered but non-practising nurses and midwives. The majority of nurses and midwives returning to the workforce were approaching retirement age in 10-15 years.

Viewing systematic reviews and meta-analysis in social research through different lenses

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are used to combine results across studies to determine an overall effect. Meta-analysis is especially useful for combining evidence to inform social policy, but meta-analyses of applied social science research may encounter practical issues arising from the nature of the research domain. The current paper identifies potential resolutions to four issues that may be encountered in systematic reviews and meta-analyses in social research. The four issues are: scoping and targeting research questions appropriate for meta-analysis; selecting eligibility criteria where primary studies vary in research design and choice of outcome measures; dealing with inconsistent reporting in primary studies; and identifying sources of heterogeneity with multiple confounded moderators. The paper presents an overview of each issue with a review of potential resolutions, identified from similar issues encountered in meta-analysis in medical and biological sciences. The discussion aims to share and improve methodology in systematic reviews and meta-analysis by promoting cross-disciplinary communication, that is, to encourage 'viewing through different lenses'.

Melanopsin ganglion cell function in early age-related macular degeneration

Purpose Melanopsin-expressing retinal ganglion cells (mRGCs) have non-image forming functions including mediation of the pupil light reflex (PLR). There is limited knowledge about mRGC function in retinal disease. Initial retinal changes in age-related macular degeneration (AMD) occur in the paracentral region where mRGCs have their highest density, making them vulnerable during disease onset. In this cross-sectional clinical study, we measured the PLR to determine if mRGC function is altered in early stages of macular degeneration. Methods Pupil responses were measured in 8 early AMD patients (AREDS 2001 classification; mean age 72.6 ± 7.2 years, 5M, and 3F) and 12 healthy control participants (mean age 66.6 ± 6.1 years, 8M and 4F) using a custom-built Maxwellian-view pupillometer. Stimuli were 0.5 Hz sinewaves (10 s duration, 35.6° diameter) of short wavelength light (464nm, blue; retinal irradiance = 14.5 log quanta.cm-2.s-1) to produce high melanopsin excitation and of long wavelength light (638nm, red; retinal irradiance = 14.9 log quanta.cm-2.s-1), to bias activation to outer retina and provide a control. Baseline pupil diameter was determined during a 10 s pre-stimulus period. The post illumination pupil response (PIPR) was recorded for 40 s. The 6 s PIPR and maximum pupil constriction were expressed as percentage baseline (M ± SD). Results The blue PIPR was significantly less sustained (p<0.01) in the early AMD group (75.49 ± 7.88%) than the control group (58.28 ± 9.05%). The red PIPR was not significantly different (p>0.05) between the early AMD (84.79 ± 4.03%) and control groups (82.01 ± 5.86%). Maximum constriction amplitude in the early AMD group for blue (43.67 ± 6.35%) and red (48.64 ± 6.49%) stimuli were not significantly different to the control group for blue (39.94 ± 3.66%) and red (44.98 ± 3.15%) stimuli (p>0.05). Conclusions These results are suggestive of inner retinal mRGC deficits in early AMD. This non-invasive, objective measure of pupil responses may provide a new method for quantifying mRGC function and monitoring AMD progression.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.