Multidimensional scaling analysis of electricity market prices

This paper studies the impact of energy and stock markets upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Historical values from major energy, stock and electricity markets are adopted. To analyze the data several graphs produced by MDS are presented and discussed. This method is useful to have a deeper insight into the behavior and the correlation of the markets. The results may also guide the construction models, helping electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility and, simultaneously, to achieve better financial results.

A sensor classification strategy for robotic manipulators using multidimensional scaling technique

This paper analyzes the signals captured during impacts and vibrations of a mechanical manipulator. To test the impacts, a flexible beam is clamped to the end-effector of a manipulator that is programmed in a way such that the rod moves against a rigid surface. Eighteen signals are captured and theirs correlation are calculated. A sensor classification scheme based on the multidimensional scaling technique is presented.

Scaling law in Saddle-node bifurcations for one-dimensional maps: A complex variable approach

The study of transient dynamical phenomena near bifurcation thresholds has attracted the interest of many researchers due to the relevance of bifurcations in different physical or biological systems. In the context of saddle-node bifurcations, where two or more fixed points collide annihilating each other, it is known that the dynamics can suffer the so-called delayed transition. This phenomenon emerges when the system spends a lot of time before reaching the remaining stable equilibrium, found after the bifurcation, because of the presence of a saddle-remnant in phase space. Some works have analytically tackled this phenomenon, especially in time-continuous dynamical systems, showing that the time delay, tau, scales according to an inverse square-root power law, tau similar to (mu-mu (c) )(-1/2), as the bifurcation parameter mu, is driven further away from its critical value, mu (c) . In this work, we first characterize analytically this scaling law using complex variable techniques for a family of one-dimensional maps, called the normal form for the saddle-node bifurcation. We then apply our general analytic results to a single-species ecological model with harvesting given by a unimodal map, characterizing the delayed transition and the scaling law arising due to the constant of harvesting. For both analyzed systems, we show that the numerical results are in perfect agreement with the analytical solutions we are providing. The procedure presented in this work can be used to characterize the scaling laws of one-dimensional discrete dynamical systems with saddle-node bifurcations.

Preditores da adesão à medicação na epilepsia: estudo longitudinal

Introdução: A não adesão à medicação na epilepsia é prevalente, pelo que a compreensão dos fatores associados deve ser promovida. Objetivos: Analisar a capacidade preditiva das estratégias de coping e da espiritualidade em relação à adesão à medicação ao longo do tempo. Metodologia: Foram avaliados 60 indivíduos através de um Questionário Sociodemográfico e Clínico, a Medida de Adesão aos Tratamentos, o COPER e a Escala de Avaliação de Espiritualidade em Contextos de Saúde, em dois momentos. Resultados: A espiritualidade Momento 1 não se relacionou com adesão à medicação no Momento 3, e as estratégias de coping: Desinvestimento Comportamental e Aceitação no Momento 1 predizem negativamente a adesão à medicação no Momento 2. Conclusão: A relação entre a adesão à medicação, estratégias de coping e espiritualidade varia em função do tempo, o que deve ser considerado ao nível da intervenção.

Longitudinal study of acute respiratory diseases in Rio de Janeiro: occurrence of respiratory viruses during four consecutive years

The occurrence of different viruses in nasopharyngeal secretions from children less than 5 years old with acute respiratory infections (ARI) was investigated over a period of 4 years (1982-1985) in Rio de Janeiro. Of the viruses known to be associated with ARI, all but influenza C and parainfluenza types 1, 2 and 4 were found. Viruses were found more frequently in children attending emergency or pediatric wards than in outpatients. This was clearly related to the high incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the more severe cases of ARI. RSV positive specimens appeared mainly during the fall, over four consecutive years, showing a clear seasonal ocurrence of this virus. Emergency wards provide the best source of data for RSV surveillance, showing sharp increase in the number of positive cases coinciding with increased incidence of ARI cases. Adenovirus were the second most frequent viruses isolated and among these serotypes 1,2 and 7 were predominant. Influenza virus and parainfluenza virus type 3 were next in frequency. Influenza A virus were isolated with equal frequency in outpatient departments, emergency and pediatric wards. Influenza B was more frequent among outpatients. Parainfluenza type 3 caused outbreaks in the shanty town population annually during the late winter or spring and were isolated mainly from outpatients. Herpesvirus, enterovi-rus and rhinovirus were found less frequently. Other viruses than RSV and parainfluenza type 3 did not show a clear seasonal incidence.

CardioBengo study protocol: a population based cardiovascular longitudinal study in Bengo Province, Angola

Background: Cardiovascular diseases and other non-communicable diseases are major causes of morbidity and mortality, responsible for 38 million deaths in 2012, 75 % occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Most of these countries are facing a period of epidemiological transition, being confronted with an increased burden of non-communicable diseases, which challenge health systems mainly designed to deal with infectious diseases. With the adoption of the World Health Organization “Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of non-communicable diseases, 2013–2020”, the national dimension of risk factors for non-communicable diseases must be reported on a regular basis. Angola has no national surveillance system for non-communicable diseases, and periodic population-based studies can help to overcome this lack of information. CardioBengo will collect information on risk factors, awareness rates and prevalence of symptoms relevant to cardiovascular diseases, to assist decision makers in the implementation of prevention and treatment policies and programs. Methods: CardioBengo is designed as a research structure that comprises a cross-sectional component, providing baseline information and the assembling of a cohort to follow-up the dynamics of cardiovascular diseases risk factors in the catchment area of the Dande Health and Demographic Surveillance System of the Health Research Centre of Angola, in Bengo Province, Angola. The World Health Organization STEPwise approach to surveillance questionnaires and procedures will be used to collect information on a representative sex-age stratified sample, aged between 15 and 64 years old. Discussion: CardioBengo will recruit the first population cohort in Angola designed to evaluate cardiovascular diseases risk factors. Using the structures in place of the Dande Health and Demographic Surveillance System and a reliable methodology that generates comparable results with other regions and countries, this study will constitute a useful tool for the surveillance of cardiovascular diseases. Like all longitudinal studies, a strong concern exists regarding dropouts, but strategies like regular visits to selected participants and a strong community involvement are in place to minimize these occurrences.

Rotavirus associated diarrhoea during infancy in the city of S. Luís (MA), Brazil: a two-year longitudinal study

A total of 479 diarrhoeic children and 337 children without diarrhoea (controls) less than 5 years old were investigated in a two-year study in the city of S. Luís (MA), with the purpose to determine the incidence, the age distribution and the seasonality of rotaviruses, as well as to establish the severity of the disease in this region between the North and the Northeast of Brazil. rotavirus incidence was highest in children of the 1st. year of life, showing an average of 25% per year among the diarrhoeic patients attending the two main hospitals and three health units at the periphery of the city. It was shown that rotaviruses are significant enteropathogens in children less than 18 months old. Frequency of rotaviruses droped in diarrhoeic patients 18 to 23 months old to only 4%, the same percentage observed in children of the control group. A typical seasonal distribution of rotaviruses was not seen during the two years of study. There was a peak in the incidence of rotaviruses in 1986, during the rainy season, and two peaks in 1987, one in the rainy season and one in the dry season. It was also shown that severity of diarrhoea in rotavirus positive cases was higher than in the negative cases. Rotavirus diarrhoeic patients had more loose stools per day, and higher frequencies of vomiting and fever, resulting more often (> 2 times) in moderate or severe dehydration. Finally, it is concluded that the introduction of immunoprophylaxis may reduce significantly the high mortality rates in early childhood observed in S. Luís.

Multidimensional scaling visualization of earthquake phenomena

Earthquakes are associated with negative events, such as large number of casualties, destruction of buildings and infrastructures, or emergence of tsunamis. In this paper, we apply the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) analysis to earthquake data. MDS is a set of techniques that produce spatial or geometric representations of complex objects, such that, objects perceived to be similar/distinct in some sense are placed nearby/distant on the MDS maps. The interpretation of the charts is based on the resulting clusters since MDS produces a different locus for each similarity measure. In this study, over three million seismic occurrences, covering the period from January 1, 1904 up to March 14, 2012 are analyzed. The events, characterized by their magnitude and spatiotemporal distributions, are divided into groups, either according to the Flinn–Engdahl seismic regions of Earth or using a rectangular grid based in latitude and longitude coordinates. Space-time and Space-frequency correlation indices are proposed to quantify the similarities among events. MDS has the advantage of avoiding sensitivity to the non-uniform spatial distribution of seismic data, resulting from poorly instrumented areas, and is well suited for accessing dynamics of complex systems. MDS maps are proven as an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among seismic events, which may not be perceived on traditional geographic maps. Therefore, MDS constitutes a valid alternative to classic visualization tools, for understanding the global behavior of earthquakes.

Analysis of Forest Fires by means of Pseudo Phase Plane and Multidimensional Scaling Methods

Forest fires dynamics is often characterized by the absence of a characteristic length-scale, long range correlations in space and time, and long memory, which are features also associated with fractional order systems. In this paper a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, covering the period from 1980 up to 2012, is tackled. The events are modelled as time series of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. The time series are viewed as the system output and are interpreted as a manifestation of the system dynamics. In the first phase we use the pseudo phase plane (PPP) technique to describe forest fires dynamics. In the second phase we use multidimensional scaling (MDS) visualization tools. The PPP allows the representation of forest fires dynamics in two-dimensional space, by taking time series representative of the phenomena. The MDS approach generates maps where objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to better understand forest fires behaviour.

A longitudinal study of enterobiasis in three day care centers of Havana City

Pinworm infection was prospectively studied during one year in 469 children attending three day care centers. Each child was examined at six months intervals using up to three perianal swabs with adhesive tape. Those found infected were treated with mebendazole. At the beginning of the study we found a prevalence of 28% that dropped to 13% and 12% in the following study periods. The reinfection rate was twice the incidence rate in both study periods. We also found a small percentage (10%) of the children reinfected in most or all study periods. There was a high correlation between reinfection and perianal itching. Our results add further knowledge to the epidemiology of intestinal parasites in day care centers.

Analysis of UV spectral bands using multidimensional scaling

This study describes the change of the ultraviolet spectral bands starting from 0.1 to 5.0 nm slit width in the spectral range of 200–400 nm. The analysis of the spectral bands is carried out by using the multidimensional scaling (MDS) approach to reach the latent spectral background. This approach indicates that 0.1 nm slit width gives higher-order noise together with better spectral details. Thus, 5.0 nm slit width possesses the higher peak amplitude and lower-order noise together with poor spectral details. In the above-mentioned conditions, the main problem is to find the relationship between the spectral band properties and the slit width. For this aim, the MDS tool is to used recognize the hidden information of the ultraviolet spectra of sildenafil citrate by using a Shimadzu UV–VIS 2550, which is in the world the best double monochromator instrument. In this study, the proposed mathematical approach gives the rich findings for the efficient use of the spectrophotometer in the qualitative and quantitative studies.

Analysis of World Economic Variables Using Multidimensional Scaling

Waves of globalization reflect the historical technical progress and modern economic growth. The dynamics of this process are here approached using the multidimensional scaling (MDS) methodology to analyze the evolution of GDP per capita, international trade openness, life expectancy, and education tertiary enrollment in 14 countries. MDS provides the appropriate theoretical concepts and the exact mathematical tools to describe the joint evolution of these indicators of economic growth, globalization, welfare and human development of the world economy from 1977 up to 2012. The polarization dance of countries enlightens the convergence paths, potential warfare and present-day rivalries in the global geopolitical scene.

Multidimensional Scaling Visualization using Parametric Similarity Indices

In this paper, we apply multidimensional scaling (MDS) and parametric similarity indices (PSI) in the analysis of complex systems (CS). Each CS is viewed as a dynamical system, exhibiting an output time-series to be interpreted as a manifestation of its behavior. We start by adopting a sliding window to sample the original data into several consecutive time periods. Second, we define a given PSI for tracking pieces of data. We then compare the windows for different values of the parameter, and we generate the corresponding MDS maps of ‘points’. Third, we use Procrustes analysis to linearly transform the MDS charts for maximum superposition and to build a global MDS map of “shapes”. This final plot captures the time evolution of the phenomena and is sensitive to the PSI adopted. The generalized correlation, the Minkowski distance and four entropy-based indices are tested. The proposed approach is applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock market index and the Europe Brent Spot Price FOB time-series.

A Multidimensional scaling perspective of Rostow's forecasts with the Track-record (1960s-2011) of "pioneers" and "latecomers"

Proceedings of the 12th Conference on Dynamical Systems -Theory and Applications

Analysis of Electricity Market Prices Using Multidimensional Scaling

This paper studies the impact of the energy upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Data from major energy and electricity markets is considered. Several maps produced by MDS are presented and discussed revealing that this method is useful for understanding the correlation between them. Furthermore, the results help electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility.