Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.

Cultural Planning and community sustainability: The case of the Cultural Facilities Plan of Catalonia (PECCAT 2010-20)

The government of Catalonia has developed a planning framework that seeks to establish the provision of cultural facilities throughout the country. The Cultural Facilities Plan of Catalonia (PECCAT) is based on an analysis of historical gaps and establishes a minimum spatial scheme. The plan responds to problems associated with the absence of a former similar instrument, which has led to an inconsistent and inappropriate cultural infrastructure that fails to fulfill its fundamental mission of securing the cultural rights of the population. The paper sets forth the aims of this policy and describes the objectives and basic characteristics of the plan and the expected outcomes. With the plan, the government of Catalonia seeks to rebalance the infrastructure within the territory and to ensure universal access to basic cultural services, while avoiding a logic of standardization and taking local communities into account. With the development of local plans in the municipalities, local governments encourage community participation processes to adapt and decide on priorities for action based on needs assessments and cultural opportunities for local sustainable development. The local plans focus on local cultural strengths, take advantage of opportunities, and aim to realize the cultural dynamics of a place through establishing an infrastructure that can best respond to the needs and cultural demands of the local communities, taking into account economic, social, and environmental sustainability.

The grammar of psychosis

This thesis is concerned with the philosophical grammar of certain psychiatric concepts, which play a central role in delineating the field of psychiatric work. The concepts studied are ‘psychosis’, ‘delusion’, ‘person’, ‘understanding’ and ‘incomprehensibility’. The purpose of this conceptual analysis is to provide a more perspicuous view of the logic of these concepts, how psychiatric work is constituted in relation to them, and what this tells us about the relationships between the conceptual and the empirical in psychiatric concepts. The method used in the thesis is indebted primarily to Ludwig Wittgenstein’s conception of philosophy, where we are urged to look at language uses in relation to practices in order to obtain a clearer overview of practices of interest; this will enable us to resolve the conceptual problems related to these practices. This questioning takes as its starting point the concept of psychosis, a central psychiatric concept during the twentieth century. The conceptual analysis of ‘psychosis’ shows that the concept is logically dependent on the concepts of ‘understanding’ and ‘person’. Following the lead found in this analysis, the logic of person-concepts in psychiatric discourse is analysed by a detailed textual analysis of a psychiatric journal article. The main finding is the ambiguous uses of ‘person’, enabling a specifically psychiatric form of concern in human affairs. The grammar of ‘understanding’ is then tackled from the opposite end, by exploring the logic of the concept of ‘incomprehensibility’. First, by studying the DSM-IV definition of delusion it is shown that its ambiguities boil down to the question of whether psychiatric practice is better accounted for in terms of the grammar of ‘incorrectness’ or ‘incomprehensibility’. Second, the grammar of ‘incomprehensibility’ is further focused on by introducing the distinction between positive and negative conceptions of ‘incomprehensibility’. The main finding is that this distinction has wide-ranging implications for our understanding of psychiatric concepts. Finally, some of the findings gained in these studies are ‘put into practice’ in studying the more practical question of the conceptual and ethical problems associated with the concept of ‘prodromal symptom of schizophrenia’ and the agenda of early detection and intervention in schizophrenia more generally.

Convergence and divergence in global economy and social development : global perspectives on the contents of economic and soical development policy and its effects on rich and poor countries

The study of convergence and divergence in global economy and social development utilises comparative indicators to investigate the contents of economic and social development policy and their effects on the global samples that represent the rich industrial, semi-industrial and the poor developing nations. The study searchesfor answers to questions such as "what are the objectives of economic growth policies in globalisation under the imperatives of convergence and divergence, and how do these affect human well-being in consideration to the objectives of social policy in various nations?" The empirical verification of data utilises the concepts of the `logic of industrialism´ for comparative analysis that focuses mainly on identifying the levels of well-being in world nations after the Second World War. The perspectives of convergence and divergence in global economy and social development critically examine the stages of early development processes in global economy, distinguish the differences between economy and social development, illustrate the contents of economic and social development policies, their effects on rich and poor countries, and the nature of convergence and divergence in propelling economic growth and unequal social development in world nations. The measurement of convergence and divergence in global economy and social development utilised both economic and social data that were combined into an index that measures the precise levels of the effects of economic and social development policies on human well-being in the rich and poor nations. The task of finding policy solutions to resolve the controversies are reviewed through empirical investigations and the analyses of trends indicated within economic and social indicators and data. These revealed how the adoption of social policy measures in translating the gains from economic growth, towards promoting education, public health, and equity, generate social progress and longer life expectancy, higher economic growth, and sustain more stable macro economy for the nations. Social policy is concerned with the translation of benefits from objectives of global economic growth policies, to objectives of social development policy in nation states. Social policy, therefore, represents an open door whereby benefits of economic growth policies are linked with the broader objectives of social development policy, thereby enhancing the possibility of extending benefits from economic growth to all human being in every nation.

Book review of Consciousness by Christopher Hill

Christopher S. Hill advances a theory of conscious experience that employs the idea of representation to unify and explain a wide range of subjective phenomena, including emotions and pain. The theory shows the relevance of philosophical thought in a multidisciplinary view of the mind.

TOWARDS A PHILOSOPHICAL UNDERSTANDING OF THE LOGICS OF FORMAL INCONSISTENCY

Abstract In this paper we present a philosophical motivation for the logics of formal inconsistency , a family of paraconsistent logics whose distinctive feature is that of having resources for expressing the notion of consistency within the object language in such a way that consistency may be logically independent of non-contradiction. We defend the view according to which logics of formal inconsistency may be interpreted as theories of logical consequence of an epistemological character. We also argue that in order to philosophically justify paraconsistency there is no need to endorse dialetheism, the thesis that there are true contradictions. Furthermore, we show that mbC , a logic of formal inconsistency based on classical logic, may be enhanced in order to express the basic ideas of an intuitive interpretation of contradictions as conflicting evidence.

Older Consumers’ Adoption of Online Shopping

The thesis is concerned with the online shopping behavior of older adults, who in this study are at least 60 years old. At the moment, the population is ageing and consumers are buying more and more via the Internet. The objective of the thesis is to understand the large group of older adults in Finland as online customers.The study explores older consumers’ adoption of online shopping with a qualitative research, and it is situated in the research tradition of hermeneutic phenomenology. Phenomenology focuses on the life-world of people. The empirical data was collected by three focus groups with 13 participants altogether. The focus group conversations brought forth that there is not tremendous difference in the motives of older consumers to shop online compared to other age groups. The study strengthened the previous conception of a change toward more ageless market. However, online stores should be designed to accommodate some special needs of older consumers as they occasionally struggle with the logic of websites. Finnish older consumers have adopted online shopping because of perceived convenience and because of tolerable perceived risk during first online shopping experience. Positive experiences strengthen positive attitude toward electronic channel.

Designing sustainable industrial ecosystems : the case of a biogas-for-traffic solution

This thesis focuses on the development of sustainable industrial architectures for bioenergy based on the metaphors of industrial symbiosis and industrial ecosystems, which imply exchange of material and energy side-flows of various industries in order to improve sustainability of those industries on a system level. The studies on industrial symbiosis have been criticised for staying at the level of incremental changes by striving for cycling waste and by-flows of the industries ‘as is’ and leaving the underlying industry structures intact. Moreover, there has been articulated the need for interdisciplinary research on industrial ecosystems as well as the need to extend the management and business perspectives on industrial ecology. This thesis addresses this call by applying a business ecosystem and business model perspective on industrial symbiosis in order to produce knowledge on how industrial ecosystems can be developed that are sustainable environmentally and economically. A case of biogas business is explored and described in four research papers and an extended summary that form this thesis. Since the aim of the research was to produce a normative model for developing sustainable industrial ecosystems, the methodology applied in this research can be characterised as constructive and collaborative. A constructive research mode was required in order to expand the historical knowledge on industrial symbiosis development and business ecosystem development into the knowledge of what should be done, which is crucial for sustainability and the social change it requires. A collaborative research mode was employed through participating in a series of projects devoted to the development of a biogas-for-traffic industrial ecosystem. The results of the study showed that the development of material flow interconnections within industrial symbiosis is inseparable from larger business ecosystem restructuring. This included a shift in the logic of the biogas and traffic fuel industry and a subsequent development of a business ecosystem that would entail the principles of industrial symbiosis and localised energy production and consumption. Since a company perspective has been taken in this thesis, the role of an ecosystem integrator appeared as a crucial means to achieve the required industry restructuring. This, in turn, required the development of a modular and boundary-spanning business model that had a strong focus on establishing collaboration among ecosystem stakeholders and development of multiple local industrial ecosystems as part of business growth. As a result, the designed business model of the ecosystem integrator acquired the necessary flexibility in order to adjust to local conditions, which is crucial for establishing industrial symbiosis. This thesis presents a normative model for the development of a business model required for creating sustainable industrial ecosystems, which contributes to approaches at the policy-makers’ level, proposed earlier. Therefore, this study addresses the call for more research on the business level of industrial ecosystem formation and the implications for the business models of the involved actors. Moreover, the thesis increases the understanding of system innovation and innovation in business ecosystems by explicating how business model innovation can be the trigger for achieving more sustainable industry structures, such as those relying on industrial symbiosis.

Linguistic models for decision support

Linguistic modelling is a rather new branch of mathematics that is still undergoing rapid development. It is closely related to fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic, but knowledge and experience from other fields of mathematics, as well as other fields of science including linguistics and behavioral sciences, is also necessary to build appropriate mathematical models. This topic has received considerable attention as it provides tools for mathematical representation of the most common means of human communication - natural language. Adding a natural language level to mathematical models can provide an interface between the mathematical representation of the modelled system and the user of the model - one that is sufficiently easy to use and understand, but yet conveys all the information necessary to avoid misinterpretations. It is, however, not a trivial task and the link between the linguistic and computational level of such models has to be established and maintained properly during the whole modelling process. In this thesis, we focus on the relationship between the linguistic and the mathematical level of decision support models. We discuss several important issues concerning the mathematical representation of meaning of linguistic expressions, their transformation into the language of mathematics and the retranslation of mathematical outputs back into natural language. In the first part of the thesis, our view of the linguistic modelling for decision support is presented and the main guidelines for building linguistic models for real-life decision support that are the basis of our modeling methodology are outlined. From the theoretical point of view, the issues of representation of meaning of linguistic terms, computations with these representations and the retranslation process back into the linguistic level (linguistic approximation) are studied in this part of the thesis. We focus on the reasonability of operations with the meanings of linguistic terms, the correspondence of the linguistic and mathematical level of the models and on proper presentation of appropriate outputs. We also discuss several issues concerning the ethical aspects of decision support - particularly the loss of meaning due to the transformation of mathematical outputs into natural language and the issue or responsibility for the final decisions. In the second part several case studies of real-life problems are presented. These provide background and necessary context and motivation for the mathematical results and models presented in this part. A linguistic decision support model for disaster management is presented here – formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem and a heuristic solution to it is proposed. Uncertainty of outputs, expert knowledge concerning disaster response practice and the necessity of obtaining outputs that are easy to interpret (and available in very short time) are reflected in the design of the model. Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is considered in two case studies - first in the context of the evaluation of works of art, where a weak consistency condition is introduced and an adaptation of AHP for large matrices of preference intensities is presented. The second AHP case-study deals with the fuzzified version of AHP and its use for evaluation purposes – particularly the integration of peer-review into the evaluation of R&D outputs is considered. In the context of HR management, we present a fuzzy rule based evaluation model (academic faculty evaluation is considered) constructed to provide outputs that do not require linguistic approximation and are easily transformed into graphical information. This is achieved by designing a specific form of fuzzy inference. Finally the last case study is from the area of humanities - psychological diagnostics is considered and a linguistic fuzzy model for the interpretation of outputs of multidimensional questionnaires is suggested. The issue of the quality of data in mathematical classification models is also studied here. A modification of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method is presented to reflect variable quality of data instances in the validation set during classifier performance assessment. Twelve publications on which the author participated are appended as a third part of this thesis. These summarize the mathematical results and provide a closer insight into the issues of the practicalapplications that are considered in the second part of the thesis.

The multicultural moment : the history of the idea and politics of multiculturalism in Sweden in comparative, transnational and biographical context, 1964–1975

The emergence of the idea of multiculturalism in Swedish public discourse and social science in the latter half of the 1960s and introduction of official multiculturalism in 1975 constituted a major intellectual and political shift in the post-war history of Sweden. The ambition of the 1975 immigrant and minority policy to enable the preservation of ethno-cultural minorities and to create a positive attitude towards the new multicultural society among the majority population was also incorporated into Swedish cultural, educational and media policies. The rejection of assimilationism and the new commitment to ethno-cultural diversity, the multicultural moment, has earned Sweden a place on the list of the early adopters of official multiculturalism, together with Canada and Australia. This compilation thesis examines the origins and early post-war history of the idea of multiculturalism as well as the interplay between idea and politics in the shift from a public ideal of homogeneity to an ideal of multiculturalism in Sweden. It does so from a range of conceptual, comparative, transnational, and biographical perspectives. The thesis consists of an introduction (Part I) and four previously published studies (Part II). The primary research result of the thesis concerns the agency involved in the break-through and formal establishment of the idea of multiculturalism in Sweden. Actors such as ethnic activists, experts and officials were instrumental in the introduction and establishment of multiculturalism in Sweden, as they also had been in Canada and in Australia. These actors have, however, not previously been recognized and analysed as significant idea-makers and political agents in the case of Sweden. The intertwined connections between activists, social scientists, linguists, and officials facilitated the transfer of the idea of multiculturalism from a publically contested idea to public policy via the way of The Swedish Trade Union Confederation, academia and the Royal Commission of Immigration. The thesis furthermore shows that the political success of the idea of multiculturalism, such as it was within the limits of the universalist social democratic welfare state, was dependent on whom the claims-makers were, the status and positions they held, and the way the idea of multiculturalism was conceptualised and used. It was also dependent on the migratory context of labour immigration in the 1960s and 1970s and on whose behalf the advocates of multiculturalism made their claims. The majority of the labour immigrants were Finnish citizens from the former eastern half of the kingdom of Sweden who were net contributors to the Swedish welfare state. This facilitated the recognition of their ethno-cultural difference, and, following the logic of universalism, the ethno-cultural difference of other minority groups in Sweden. The historical significance of the multicultural moment is still evident in the contemporary immigration and integration policies of Sweden. The affirmation of diversity continues to set Sweden apart from the rest of Europe, now more so than in the 1970s, even though the migratory context has changed radically in the last 40 years.

Identification of characteristics for successful university-company partnership development

The importance of university-company collaboration has increased during the last decades. The drivers for that are, on the one hand, changes in business logic of companies and on the other hand the decreased state funding of universities. Many companies emphasize joint research with universities as an enabling input to their development processes, which aim at creating new innovations, products and wealth. These factors have changed universities’ operations and they have adopted several practices of dynamic business organizations, such as strategic planning, monitoring and controlling methods of internal processes etc. The objective of this thesis is to combine different characteristics of successful university-company partnership and its development. The development process starts with identifying potential partners in the university’s interest group, which requires understanding the role of different partners in the innovation system. Next, in order to find a common development basis, matching the policy and strategy between partners is needed. The third phase is to combine the academic and industrial objectives of a joint project, which is a typical form of university-company collaboration. The optimum is a win-win situation where both partners, universities and companies, can get addedvalue. For the companies added value typically means access to new research results before their competitors. For the universities added value offers a possibility to carry on high level scientific work. The research output in the form of published scientific articles is evaluated by the international science community. Because the university-company partnership is often executed by joint projects, the different forms of this kind of projects is discussed in this study. The most challenging form of collaboration is a semi-open project model, which is not based on bilateral activities between universities and companies but on a consortium of several universities, research institutes and companies. The universities and companies are core actors in the innovation system. Thus the discussion of their roles and relations to public operators like publicly funded financiers is important. In the Finnish innovation system there are at least the following doers executing strategies and policies: EU, Academy of Finland and TEKES. In addition to these, Strategic Centres for Science, Technology and Innovation which are owned jointly by companies, universities and research organizations have a very important role in their fields of business. They transfer research results into commercial actions to generate wealth. The thesis comprises two parts. The first part consists of an overview of the study including introduction, literature review, research design, synthesis of findings and conclusions. The second part introduces four original research publications.

Tracing Innovation Practices in Seaports: the Ports of Klaipeda and Stockholm as Case Studies

This study explores variegated means through which ports have become increasingly entangled in the planning logic of neoliberal innovation-driven economy. The research topic belongs to the academic disciplines of economics and human geography. The aim of the thesis is to analyse how the notion of innovation, adopted in a variety of supranational and national port policy documents, is deployed in operational port environment in two different ports of the Baltic Sea Region: the port of Stockholm, Sweden, and the port of Klaipeda, Lithuania. This novel innovation agenda is visible in several topics I examine in the study, that is, port governance, environmental issues, and seaport – port-city interface. The gathered primary source material on port policy documents, strategies, development planning documents and reports is analysed by utilizing the qualitative content analysis research method. Moreover, the empirical part of the case study, that is, tracing innovation practices in mundane port activities is based on collected qualitative semi-structured interviews with port authorities in Klaipeda and Stockholm, researchers and other port experts. I examine the interview material by employing the theoretical reading research method. In my analysis, I have reframed port-related policy development by tracing and identifying the port transformation from “functional terminals” to “engines for growth”. My results show that this novel innovation-oriented rhetoric imprinted in the narrative “engines for growth” is often contested in daily port practices. In other words, my analysis reveals that the port authorities’ and other port actors’ attitudes towards innovations do not necessarily correspond to the new narrative of innovation and do not always “fit” within a framework of neoliberal economic thinking that glorifies the “culture of innovations”. I argue that the ability to develop innovative initiatives in the ports of Klaipeda and Stockholm is strongly predetermined by local conditions, a port’s governance model, the way port actors perceive the importance of innovations per se, demand factors and new regulations.

Detecting Deceit – Guessing or Assessing? Study on the Applicability of Veracity Assessment Methods in Human Intelligence

Intelligence from a human source, that is falsely thought to be true, is potentially more harmful than a total lack of it. The veracity assessment of the gathered intelligence is one of the most important phases of the intelligence process. Lie detection and veracity assessment methods have been studied widely but a comprehensive analysis of these methods’ applicability is lacking. There are some problems related to the efficacy of lie detection and veracity assessment. According to a conventional belief an almighty lie detection method, that is almost 100% accurate and suitable for any social encounter, exists. However, scientific studies have shown that this is not the case, and popular approaches are often over simplified. The main research question of this study was: What is the applicability of veracity assessment methods, which are reliable and are based on scientific proof, in terms of the following criteria? o Accuracy, i.e. probability of detecting deception successfully o Ease of Use, i.e. easiness to apply the method correctly o Time Required to apply the method reliably o No Need for Special Equipment o Unobtrusiveness of the method In order to get an answer to the main research question, the following supporting research questions were answered first: What kinds of interviewing and interrogation techniques exist and how could they be used in the intelligence interview context, what kinds of lie detection and veracity assessment methods exist that are reliable and are based on scientific proof and what kind of uncertainty and other limitations are included in these methods? Two major databases, Google Scholar and Science Direct, were used to search and collect existing topic related studies and other papers. After the search phase, the understanding of the existing lie detection and veracity assessment methods was established through a meta-analysis. Multi Criteria Analysis utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process was conducted to compare scientifically valid lie detection and veracity assessment methods in terms of the assessment criteria. In addition, a field study was arranged to get a firsthand experience of the applicability of different lie detection and veracity assessment methods. The Studied Features of Discourse and the Studied Features of Nonverbal Communication gained the highest ranking in overall applicability. They were assessed to be the easiest and fastest to apply, and to have required temporal and contextual sensitivity. The Plausibility and Inner Logic of the Statement, the Method for Assessing the Credibility of Evidence and the Criteria Based Content Analysis were also found to be useful, but with some limitations. The Discourse Analysis and the Polygraph were assessed to be the least applicable. Results from the field study support these findings. However, it was also discovered that the most applicable methods are not entirely troublefree either. In addition, this study highlighted that three channels of information, Content, Discourse and Nonverbal Communication, can be subjected to veracity assessment methods that are scientifically defensible. There is at least one reliable and applicable veracity assessment method for each of the three channels. All of the methods require disciplined application and a scientific working approach. There are no quick gains if high accuracy and reliability is desired. Since most of the current lie detection studies are concentrated around a scenario, where roughly half of the assessed people are totally truthful and the other half are liars who present a well prepared cover story, it is proposed that in future studies lie detection and veracity assessment methods are tested against partially truthful human sources. This kind of test setup would highlight new challenges and opportunities for the use of existing and widely studied lie detection methods, as well as for the modern ones that are still under development.

Earning logics of a portal solution for a medical device manufacturer

The need behind this thesis was in the development of a more modern earning logic for a pelvic floor muscle home training device to which a portal solution is going to be introduced as a part of new upgraded version of the device. The goal is to offer useful guidelines and recommendations for the medical device manufacturer to use in the process of creating the new business model around the new product version. In the theoretical part of this thesis, the used theoretical frameworks for business model generation and pricing models are presented. The special characteristics of healthcare technology industry are also introduced as initial data for the empirical part. The empirical data is collected via interviews and meetings from both inside and outside of the company to gain a comprehensive picture of the issue at hand. The needed changes in the business model as well as possible pricing options are gone through in the empirical chapters with the main focus being on the incoming revenue streams and pricing. As results of the thesis recommendations are presented for the changes that are needed in the business model after the introduction of the portal solution. The results of this thesis can be used for finishing the development process of the new version of the device and especially the earning logic of it.

Engineers and technicians : the effect of cognitive style and gender on visual information processing

The purpose of this project was to identify in a subject group of engineers and technicians (N = 62) a preferred mode of representation for facilitating correct recall of information from complex graphics. The modes of representation were black and white (b&w) block, b&w icon, color block, and color icon. The researcher's test instrument included twelve complex graphics (six b&w and six color - three per mode). Each graphics presentation was followed by two multiple-choice questions. Recall performance was better using b&w block mode graphics and color icon mode graphics. A standardized test, the Group Embedded Figures Test (GEFT) was used to identify a cognitive style preference (field dependence). Although engineers and technicians in the sample were strongly field-independent, they were not significantly more field-independent than the normative group in the Witkin, Oltman, Raskin, and Karp study (1971). Tests were also employed to look for any significant difference in cognitive style preference due to gender. None was found. Implications from the project results for the design of visuals and their use in technical training are discussed.