The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.

IntFOLD: an integrated server for modelling protein structures and functions from amino acid sequences

IntFOLD is an independent web server that integrates our leading methods for structure and function prediction. The server provides a simple unified interface that aims to make complex protein modelling data more accessible to life scientists. The server web interface is designed to be intuitive and integrates a complex set of quantitative data, so that 3D modelling results can be viewed on a single page and interpreted by non-expert modellers at a glance. The only required input to the server is an amino acid sequence for the target protein. Here we describe major performance and user interface updates to the server, which comprises an integrated pipeline of methods for: tertiary structure prediction, global and local 3D model quality assessment, disorder prediction, structural domain prediction, function prediction and modelling of protein-ligand interactions. The server has been independently validated during numerous CASP (Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction) experiments, as well as being continuously evaluated by the CAMEO (Continuous Automated Model Evaluation) project. The IntFOLD server is available at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/IntFOLD/

A coupled cloud physics–radiation parameterization of the bulk optical properties of cirrus and its impact on the Met Office unified model global atmosphere 5.0 configuration

A new coupled cloud physics–radiation parameterization of the bulk optical properties of ice clouds is presented. The parameterization is consistent with assumptions in the cloud physics scheme regarding particle size distributions (PSDs) and mass–dimensional relationships. The parameterization is based on a weighted ice crystal habit mixture model, and its bulk optical properties are parameterized as simple functions of wavelength and ice water content (IWC). This approach directly couples IWC to the bulk optical properties, negating the need for diagnosed variables, such as the ice crystal effective dimension. The parameterization is implemented into the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 5.0 (GA5) configuration. The GA5 configuration is used to simulate the annual 20-yr shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), as well as the temperature structure of the atmosphere, under various microphysical assumptions. The coupled parameterization is directly compared against the current operational radiation parameterization, while maintaining the same cloud physics assumptions. In this experiment, the impacts of the two parameterizations on the SW and LW radiative effects at TOA are also investigated and compared against observations. The 20-yr simulations are compared against the latest observations of the atmospheric temperature and radiative fluxes at TOA. The comparisons demonstrate that the choice of PSD and the assumed ice crystal shape distribution are as important as each other. Moreover, the consistent radiation parameterization removes a long-standing tropical troposphere cold temperature bias but slightly warms the southern midlatitudes by about 0.5 K.

A method for merging nadir-sounding climate records, with an application to the global-mean stratospheric temperature data sets from SSU and AMSU

A method is proposed for merging different nadir-sounding climate data records using measurements from high-resolution limb sounders to provide a transfer function between the different nadir measurements. The two nadir-sounding records need not be overlapping so long as the limb-sounding record bridges between them. The method is applied to global-mean stratospheric temperatures from the NOAA Climate Data Records based on the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU), extending the SSU record forward in time to yield a continuous data set from 1979 to present, and providing a simple framework for extending the SSU record into the future using AMSU. SSU and AMSU are bridged using temperature measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), which is of high enough vertical resolution to accurately represent the weighting functions of both SSU and AMSU. For this application, a purely statistical approach is not viable since the different nadir channels are not sufficiently linearly independent, statistically speaking. The near-global-mean linear temperature trends for extended SSU for 1980–2012 are −0.63 ± 0.13, −0.71 ± 0.15 and −0.80 ± 0.17 K decade−1 (95 % confidence) for channels 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The extended SSU temperature changes are in good agreement with those from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite, with both exhibiting a cooling trend of ~ 0.6 ± 0.3 K decade−1 in the upper stratosphere from 2004 to 2012. The extended SSU record is found to be in agreement with high-top coupled atmosphere–ocean models over the 1980–2012 period, including the continued cooling over the first decade of the 21st century.

Biodiversity and resilience of ecosystem functions

Accelerating rates of environmental change and the continued loss of global biodiversity threaten functions and services delivered by ecosystems. Much ecosystem monitoring and management is focused on the provision of ecosystem functions and services under current environmental conditions, yet this could lead to inappropriate management guidance and undervaluation of the importance of biodiversity. The maintenance of ecosystem functions and services under substantial predicted future environmental change (i.e., their ‘resilience’) is crucial. Here we identify a range of mechanisms underpinning the resilience of ecosystem functions across three ecological scales. Although potentially less important in the short term, biodiversity, encompassing variation from within species to across landscapes, may be crucial for the longer-term resilience of ecosystem functions and the services that they underpin.

The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project

This paper introduces the special issue of Climatic Change on the QUEST-GSI project, a global-scale multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change. The project used multiple climate models to characterise plausible climate futures with consistent baseline climate and socio-economic data and consistent assumptions, together with a suite of global-scale sectoral impacts models. It estimated impacts across sectors under specific SRES emissions scenarios, and also constructed functions relating impact to change in global mean surface temperature. This paper summarises the objectives of the project and its overall methodology, outlines how the project approach has been used in subsequent policy-relevant assessments of future climate change under different emissions futures, and summarises the general lessons learnt in the project about model validation and the presentation of multi-sector, multi-region impact assessments and their associated uncertainties to different audiences.

Continuous GRASP with a local active-set method for bound-constrained global optimization

Global optimization seeks a minimum or maximum of a multimodal function over a discrete or continuous domain. In this paper, we propose a hybrid heuristic-based on the CGRASP and GENCAN methods-for finding approximate solutions for continuous global optimization problems subject to box constraints. Experimental results illustrate the relative effectiveness of CGRASP-GENCAN on a set of benchmark multimodal test functions.

Global Gene Expression Analysis during Sporulation of the Aquatic Fungus Blastocladiella emersonii

The Blastocladiella emersonii life cycle presents a number of drastic biochemical and morphological changes, mainly during two cell differentiation stages: germination and sporulation. To investigate the transcriptional changes taking place during the sporulation phase, which culminates with the production of the zoospores, motile cells responsible for the dispersal of the fungus, microarray experiments were performed. Among the 3,773 distinct genes investigated, a total of 1,207 were classified as differentially expressed, relative to time zero of sporulation, at at least one of the time points analyzed. These results indicate that accurate transcriptional control takes place during sporulation, as well as indicating the necessity for distinct molecular functions throughout this differentiation process. The main functional categories overrepresented among upregulated genes were those involving the microtubule, the cytoskeleton, signal transduction involving Ca(2+), and chromosome organization. On the other hand, protein biosynthesis, central carbon metabolism, and protein degradation were the most represented functional categories among downregulated genes. Gene expression changes were also analyzed in cells sporulating in the presence of subinhibitory concentrations of glucose or tryptophan. Data obtained revealed overexpression of microtubule and cytoskeleton transcripts in the presence of glucose, probably causing the shape and motility problems observed in the zoospores produced under this condition. In contrast, the presence of tryptophan during sporulation led to upregulation of genes involved in oxidative stress, proteolysis, and protein folding. These results indicate that distinct physiological pathways are involved in the inhibition of sporulation due to these two classes of nutrient sources.

The functions of intermediaries in Swedish SMEs internationalization to the Nigerian market

Over the years so many academic literatures has revealed that increased number of firms have seen internationalization as a means to gain and sustain competitive advantage and even increase economic of scale, and this has led many western companies to emerging markets. In this paper we discovered that among the pool of Swedish firms, only the MNEs have seen Nigerian market attractive to internationalize to, but just a few of the Swedish SMEs has expanded to the Nigerian market. This research was conducted by doing a qualitative study with the use of phenomenological research approach, during our investigation on the functions of intermediaries in Swedish SMEs internationalization to Nigeria market.Furthermore, we were able to understand the importance and functions of the different marketing intermediaries’ in Swedish SMEs internationalization to Nigeria market. These intermediaries equip the Swedish firms with the required objective knowledge of the Nigerian market, updating them with recent development of the opportunities and threats involved in the Nigerian marketing environment, and linking these Swedish firms to the required government departments, distributors, agent/broker, customers, middle men etc, thereby impacting them with the experiential knowledge. Moreover, it is important for firms to have objective or pre-market knowledge of a particular market before entering that market, but this knowledge is regarded as non-helpful knowledge to firms. But the experiential knowledge is acquired over time in the market, which is regarded as the helpful knowledge. It is evident that the intermediaries equip these firms with both objective and experiential knowledge.Although the opportunities in some emerging markets are very attractive, but the threats in these markets are other factors firms also put into consideration before internationalizing to these markets. This is why thorough market research has to be done so that firms can create effective marketing strategies when they want to expand their marketing activities to emerging markets. Despite the risk and uncertainties involved in doing business in foreign countries, still yet companies selling global products do not have any choice than to internationalize their marketing operations.

Optimization Of Groundwater Remediation With New Efficient Parallel Algorithm For Global Optimization

Application of optimization algorithm to PDE modeling groundwater remediation can greatly reduce remediation cost. However, groundwater remediation analysis requires a computational expensive simulation, therefore, effective parallel optimization could potentially greatly reduce computational expense. The optimization algorithm used in this research is Parallel Stochastic radial basis function. This is designed for global optimization of computationally expensive functions with multiple local optima and it does not require derivatives. In each iteration of the algorithm, an RBF is updated based on all the evaluated points in order to approximate expensive function. Then the new RBF surface is used to generate the next set of points, which will be distributed to multiple processors for evaluation. The criteria of selection of next function evaluation points are estimated function value and distance from all the points known. Algorithms created for serial computing are not necessarily efficient in parallel so Parallel Stochastic RBF is different algorithm from its serial ancestor. The application for two Groundwater Superfund Remediation sites, Umatilla Chemical Depot, and Former Blaine Naval Ammunition Depot. In the study, the formulation adopted treats pumping rates as decision variables in order to remove plume of contaminated groundwater. Groundwater flow and contamination transport is simulated with MODFLOW-MT3DMS. For both problems, computation takes a large amount of CPU time, especially for Blaine problem, which requires nearly fifty minutes for a simulation for a single set of decision variables. Thus, efficient algorithm and powerful computing resource are essential in both cases. The results are discussed in terms of parallel computing metrics i.e. speedup and efficiency. We find that with use of up to 24 parallel processors, the results of the parallel Stochastic RBF algorithm are excellent with speed up efficiencies close to or exceeding 100%.

Famílias com desenvolvimento funcional e disfuncional : validação das escalas diagnósticas faces iii, beavers-timberlawn e escala global do funcionamento internacional (garf)

Realizou-se um estudo transversal de aplicação de três escalas americanas diagnósticas do funcionamento familiar (FACES III, Beavers-Timberlawn e GARF) em trinta e uma famílias, examinadas na clínica, visando sua validação, em nosso meio, em relação ao padrão-ouro da avaliação clínica, feita através de entrevista familiar semi-estruturada. Também estudou-se o comportamento da escala auto-respondida FACES III em cento e duas famílias da comunidade. Os resultados em relaçõa ao FACES III mostraram uma correlação linear positiva, mas baixa, entre a coesão familiar e risco para doença mental. Não apareceu correlação estatisticamente significativa em relação à adaptabilidade. Os achados confirmam os resultados publicados recentemente na literatura de que o FACES III é um instrumento que não traduz o modelo circumplexo de funcionamento familiar de Olson. As escalas Beavers-Timberlawn e GARF tiveram como resultado correlação positiva e alta com a avaliação clínica, demonstrando grande utilidade na formulação e classificação do diagnóstico do funcionamento familiar.

Atenção à saúde mental na Estratégia Saúde da Família no Município de Parnamirim/RN: opinião dos profissionais, dos portadores de transtornos mentais e seus acompanhantes

This study aims to analyze and compare the opinion of professionals, managers and users about the mental health care in the Family Health Strategy (FHS). It is characterized as an Operations Research or Health System Research with a cross-sectional design and a descriptive quantitative nature. The study was developed from the application of the Opinion Measurement Scale allied to techniques of observation and structured interview in the city of Parnamirim / RN. The sample consists of 409 subjects, 209 professionals of the Family Health Strategy, 30 of the Oral Health Strategy, 19 of the Family Health Support Center, 24 directors of Basic Health Units, plus 68 users with mental disorders and 59 caregivers, respecting the ethical parameters of Resolution 196/96 of the National Health Council, trial registration number: CAAE 0003.0.051.000-11. Quantitative data were submitted to the Epi-info 3.5.2 for analysis. The network of mental health in Parnamirim involves the flow between the FHS, Psychosocial Care Centers, clinics and hospitals, having as main barriers the fragility of the referral and counter-referral system, of the municipal health conferences, of the FHS teams by the limitations in material and human resources as well as the population´s lack of acknowledge about the organization of the mental health network, issues that affect the integral attention. Even though the FHS professionals recognize the importance of their actions, they question their role in mental health care, experiencing difficulties in accessing psychiatric services (76.5%). Although most agree that the mentally ill is best treated in the family than in hospital (65.2%), the community health workers were the predominant category in the partial or total disagreement of this statement (40.8%), who is the professional in greater contact with the family. Nevertheless the caregivers miss the support of the FHS as the main focus of attention is on revenue control. The views of professionals, mental patients and caregivers converged in several statements, showing the main weaknesses to be focused by the mental health network of the city, as the perceptions that: (a) physical strength is needed to take care of mental patients for its tendency to aggression, requiring it to stay in the sanatorium for representing danger to society, (b) only a psychiatrist can help the person with emotional problems, (c) the user of alcohol and drugs does not necessarily develop mental illness, (d) the access barriers and doubts about the quality of psychiatric services, (e) caring of a mental health patient does not bring suffering to professionals. Therefore, the commitment to consensus building, monitoring and evaluation of the network are important mechanisms for an effective management system, reflecting in the importance of strengthening the health conferences and approximating different institutions. The results reinforce the importance of strengthening primary care through programs of continuing education focusing on the actions and functions of professionals in accordance with its competences and duties what contribute to the organization and response of mental health care, favoring user´s care and the promotion of family health

Papéis e funções dos profissionais dos serviços e política de saúde mental em Natal (RN)

A assistência psiquiátrica e as políticas de atenção à saúde mental passaram por diversas transformações, marcadas ora por avanços, ora por retrocessos centrados no estigma, desinteresse e preconceito que ainda permeiam a sociedade e o senso comum. Este estudo objetivou analisar o processo de reforma psiquiátrica e a política de saúde mental do Município de Natal/RN a partir dos papéis e funções dos profissionais de nível superior dos serviços substitutivos em saúde mental. Trata-se de uma pesquisa analítica, transversal, com dados quantitativos e qualitativos, realizada nos sete serviços substitutivos de saúde mental de Natal, entre os meses de março a agosto de 2013, após aprovação do estudo pelo Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Parecer nº 217.808, CAAE: 10650612.8.1001.5537, em 01 de março de 2013. A amostra por conveniência compôs-se por 65 profissionais de nível superior das equipes de saúde mental. Utilizou-se um questionário com questões fechadas e semiabertas sobre o perfil socioeconômico, as políticas, as práticas e a formação em saúde mental. Tabularam-se e submeteram-se as respostas das questões fechadas do questionário no programa estatístico SPSS versão 20.0, analisando-os por meio de estatística descritiva, com a formulação de gráficos e tabelas. Para verificar o nível de significância, adotando-se p-valor<0,05, optou-se pela aplicação dos testes qui-quadrado e exato de Fisher. Submeteram-se os dados das questões semiabertas ao software ALCESTE e à luz da análise de conteúdo de Bardin. O perfil dos participantes caracterizou-se por maioria do sexo feminino (79%), faixa etária de 36 a 55 anos (52%), média de 42 anos, carga horária de 40 horas semanais (62%), tempo de conclusão da graduação de 6 a 15 anos (57%), trabalhavam na área de saúde mental há menos de 10 anos (72%) e na instituição pesquisada há 5 anos ou menos (52%). Da amostra estudada, 86% atendiam grupos de usuários, 97% realizavam atendimento individual, 94% observavam o comportamento do paciente, 92% realizavam atendimento familiar, utilizando, principalmente, a abordagem cognitiva (28%). Os dados qualitativos originaram cinco categorias: Formação acadêmica e atuação em saúde mental; Ausência de capacitação e supervisão em saúde mental; Dificuldades da prática profissional nos serviços substitutivos de saúde mental; Trabalho em equipe: entre acertos e conflitos; Política Nacional de Saúde Mental: uma realidade ainda distante. Detectou-se adequabilidade dos papéis e funções dos profissionais quanto ao tempo de trabalho na saúde mental e na instituição pesquisada; no atendimento e atividades individuais; na promoção de ações visando à autonomia do paciente; no atendimento em grupo de pacientes; e, em parte, à família/familiar dos portadores de transtorno mental, havendo inadequação quanto ao atendimento aos grupos de familiares (52.3%), à formação especializada em saúde mental (69.2%; p=0,02) e às dificuldades de trabalho nos serviços (87.7%). Evidenciou-se adequação nos papéis e nas funções d esenvolvidas pelos profissionais nos serviços substitutivos em saúde mental de Natal, embora convivendo em seu cotidiano com inúmeras dificuldades encontradas no desenvolvimento de suas práticas profissiona is frente às condições de trabalho

Indícios sincrônicos de gramaticalização: o uso do verbo chegar em orações coordenadas e na perífrase verbal [chegar (e) + v2]: contribuições para o ensino de gramática.

Based on North American Functional Linguistic Theory, our proposal is to describe and analyze the use of verb CHEGAR in verbal periphrasis such as [CHEGAR (E) + V2], where CHEGAR does not demonstrate a significance linked to physical movement. In linguistic literature, such periphrasis has been attributed several functions, related to aspectualization, emphasis of negative segments, and construction of mental spaces, among others. This study considers that the function of verb CHEGAR in the periphrasis in question is to indicate a global aspect, emphasizing a range of semantic-pragmatic nuances such as the sudden, instantaneous, or even abrupt character of the events refered to by the principal verb of the construction (V2), and/or the taking of initiative (sudden) by the agent (in the syntactic role of periphrastic subject), and/or subjective evaluations which go from surprise to frustration. Our objectives are the following: i) to describe and analyze the semanticpragmatic, morphosyntactic and social relationships which characterize the use of CHEGAR in verbal periphrases like [CHEGAR (E) + V2] and in coordinated/juxtaposed speech in which CHEGAR is the principal verb of the first utterance and is an elocution verb and the principal verb of the second; ii) identify, based on this description and analysis, synchrony proof in the grammaticalization of CHEGAR as an auxiliary verb in the periphrasis refered to. There was observed to be a strong similarity between coordinate/juxtaposed and periphrastic constructions. Such similarities strengthen the hypothesis that the use of CHEGAR as a lexical verb in coordinate/juxtaposed structures is the origin of the use of CHEGAR in the periphrastic structure, since the many properties encountered with higher frequency in lexical use are also just as frequently used as auxiliaries. Nevertheless, between the two constructions being studied, sufficient difference can be observed to see that CHEGAR, in the periphrasis [CHEGAR (E) V2], is behaving like an auxiliary verb, and shows typical properties of these types of verbs: i) in 100% of occurrences, it does not have a complement;ii) it has a co-referential subject in 100% of cases; iii) it does not appear with intervening material between it and V2. Besides this, CHEGAR, in periphrases, is predominant in nonneutral evaluation contexts, denoted by V2. Inspired by the results obtained, we propose strategies for the discussion of the [CHEGAR (E) V2] periphrases in both elementary and high schools.

Gestão pública em saúde mental: um estudo em CAPS com gerência pública e privada do Rio Grande Do Norte

Currently, several models of management services from the public administration are in operation in Brazil following a global trend. Besides the traditional public management operated in SUS, there are ongoing experiments of privately management in the public health services. Accordingly, we have developed an investigation into two Psychosocial Care Centers operating between these two forms of financial resources management: the first is the CAPS II - PAR situated in the municipality of Parnamirim whose form is private and the second is the CAPS II West Christmas is that the municipal government. We seek to know the workings of services, planning forms and criteria for use of financial resources, identify differences between departments on ways to run and see how technicians and users participate in the planning and management of these resources. Documentary Research was conducted by the municipal Christmas and the financial administration of the CAPS service in Parnamirim. Were conducted an interview with manager (mental health coordinator of Natal) and another interview with an employee of planning department in the Health Department of Natal, an interview with the coordinator and financial administrator of CAPS - PAR and two groups of discussion taped conversation with semi structured script interviews with six technicians in CAPS PAR and six professionals crowded in CAPS - West.Differences were observed in the management of resources funded from four blocks of discussion and analysis of results, where the privately-run service for the direct management and bureaucracy without being discussed and planned spending on staff, as well as through meetings with users, the use of the financial resources available in box; already in service with municipal public administration there is a hierarchy, this answering the coordination of mental health and the local health department that centralizes resources and defines their spending. There are meetings with patients and families, but the demands are limited as to what can be sued because of the manager s authorization. Such differentiation would be related to differences in the articulation of public management with the different types of possible management in public services, where from the implementation of new public administration in the Brazilian s State Management Reform initiated in the second half of the 1990s, benefit management services with private regime, with autonomy and direct transfer of resources