Mixed equilibrium in a Downsian model with a favored candidate

This paper examines competition in the standard one-dimensional Downsian model of two-candidate elections, but where one candidate (A) enjoys an advantage over the other candidate (D). Voters' preferences are Euclidean, but any voter will vote for candidate A over candidate D unless D is closer to her ideal point by some fixed distance \delta. The location of the median voter's ideal point is uncertain, and its distribution is commonly known by both candidates. The candidates simultaneously choose locations to maximize the probability of victory. Pure strategy equilibria often fails to exist in this model, except under special conditions about \delta and the distribution of the median ideal point. We solve for the essentially unique symmetric mixed equilibrium, show that candidate A adopts more moderate policies than candidate D, and obtain some comparative statics results about the probability of victory and the expected distance between the two candidates' policies.

Financing constraints and fixed-term employment contracts

This paper studies the interactions between financing constraints and theemployment decisions of firms when both fixed-term and permanent employmentcontracts are available. We first develop a dynamic model that shows theeffects of financing constraints and firing costs on employment decisions. Oncecalibrated, the model shows that financially constrained firms tend to use moreintensely fixed term workers, and to make them absorb a larger fraction of thetotal employment volatility than financially unconstrained firms do. We testand confirm the predictions of the model on a unique panel data of Italian manufacturingfirms with detailed information about the type of workers employedby the firms and about firm financing constraints.

Fixed and random effects in Classical and Bayesian regression

This paper proposes a common and tractable framework for analyzingdifferent definitions of fixed and random effects in a contant-slopevariable-intercept model. It is shown that, regardless of whethereffects (i) are treated as parameters or as an error term, (ii) areestimated in different stages of a hierarchical model, or whether (iii)correlation between effects and regressors is allowed, when the sameinformation on effects is introduced into all estimation methods, theresulting slope estimator is also the same across methods. If differentmethods produce different results, it is ultimately because differentinformation is being used for each methods.

Test of four colon cancer risk-scores in formalin fixed paraffin embedded microarray gene expression data.

BACKGROUND: Prognosis prediction for resected primary colon cancer is based on the T-stage Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system. We investigated if four well-documented gene expression risk scores can improve patient stratification. METHODS: Microarray-based versions of risk-scores were applied to a large independent cohort of 688 stage II/III tumors from the PETACC-3 trial. Prognostic value for relapse-free survival (RFS), survival after relapse (SAR), and overall survival (OS) was assessed by regression analysis. To assess improvement over a reference, prognostic model was assessed with the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. All statistical tests were two-sided, except the AUC increase. RESULTS: All four risk scores (RSs) showed a statistically significant association (single-test, P < .0167) with OS or RFS in univariate models, but with HRs below 1.38 per interquartile range. Three scores were predictors of shorter RFS, one of shorter SAR. Each RS could only marginally improve an RFS or OS model with the known factors T-stage, N-stage, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status (AUC gains < 0.025 units). The pairwise interscore discordance was never high (maximal Spearman correlation = 0.563) A combined score showed a trend to higher prognostic value and higher AUC increase for OS (HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.44 to 2.10, P < .001, AUC from 0.6918 to 0.7321) and RFS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.33 to 1.84, P < .001, AUC from 0.6723 to 0.6945) than any single score. CONCLUSIONS: The four tested gene expression-based risk scores provide prognostic information but contribute only marginally to improving models based on established risk factors. A combination of the risk scores might provide more robust information. Predictors of RFS and SAR might need to be different.

Comparison of the polynomial model against explicit measurements of noise components for different mammography systems.

Given the adverse impact of image noise on the perception of important clinical details in digital mammography, routine quality control measurements should include an evaluation of noise. The European Guidelines, for example, employ a second-order polynomial fit of pixel variance as a function of detector air kerma (DAK) to decompose noise into quantum, electronic and fixed pattern (FP) components and assess the DAK range where quantum noise dominates. This work examines the robustness of the polynomial method against an explicit noise decomposition method. The two methods were applied to variance and noise power spectrum (NPS) data from six digital mammography units. Twenty homogeneously exposed images were acquired with PMMA blocks for target DAKs ranging from 6.25 to 1600 µGy. Both methods were explored for the effects of data weighting and squared fit coefficients during the curve fitting, the influence of the additional filter material (2 mm Al versus 40 mm PMMA) and noise de-trending. Finally, spatial stationarity of noise was assessed.Data weighting improved noise model fitting over large DAK ranges, especially at low detector exposures. The polynomial and explicit decompositions generally agreed for quantum and electronic noise but FP noise fraction was consistently underestimated by the polynomial method. Noise decomposition as a function of position in the image showed limited noise stationarity, especially for FP noise; thus the position of the region of interest (ROI) used for noise decomposition may influence fractional noise composition. The ROI area and position used in the Guidelines offer an acceptable estimation of noise components. While there are limitations to the polynomial model, when used with care and with appropriate data weighting, the method offers a simple and robust means of examining the detector noise components as a function of detector exposure.

Extremal climatic states simulated by a 2-dimensional model Part I: Sensitivity of the model and present state

The criterion, based on the thermodynamics theory, that the climatic system tends to extremizesome function has suggested several studies. In particular, special attention has been devoted to the possibility that the climate reaches an extremal rate of planetary entropy production.Due to both radiative and material effects contribute to total planetary entropy production,climatic simulations obtained at the extremal rates of total, radiative or material entropy production appear to be of interest in order to elucidate which of the three extremal assumptions behaves more similar to current data. In the present paper, these results have been obtainedby applying a 2-dimensional (2-Dim) horizontal energy balance box-model, with a few independent variables (surface temperature, cloud-cover and material heat fluxes). In addition, climatic simulations for current conditions by assuming a fixed cloud-cover have been obtained. Finally,sensitivity analyses for both variable and fixed cloud models have been carried out

Extremal climatic states simulated by a 2-dimensional model Part II: Different climatic scenarios

Different climatic simulations have been obtained by using a 2-Dim horizontal energy balancemodel (EBM), which has been constrained to satisfy several extremal principles on dissipationand convection. Moreover, 2 different versions of the model with fixed and variable cloud-coverhave been used. The assumption of an extremal type of behaviour for the climatic system canacquire additional support depending on the similarities found with measured data for pastconditions as well as with usual projections for possible future scenarios

Symmetries and fixed point stability of stochastic differential equations modeling self-organized criticality

A stochastic nonlinear partial differential equation is constructed for two different models exhibiting self-organized criticality: the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld (BTW) sandpile model [Phys. Rev. Lett. 59, 381 (1987); Phys. Rev. A 38, 364 (1988)] and the Zhang model [Phys. Rev. Lett. 63, 470 (1989)]. The dynamic renormalization group (DRG) enables one to compute the critical exponents. However, the nontrivial stable fixed point of the DRG transformation is unreachable for the original parameters of the models. We introduce an alternative regularization of the step function involved in the threshold condition, which breaks the symmetry of the BTW model. Although the symmetry properties of the two models are different, it is shown that they both belong to the same universality class. In this case the DRG procedure leads to a symmetric behavior for both models, restoring the broken symmetry, and makes accessible the nontrivial fixed point. This technique could also be applied to other problems with threshold dynamics.

Routine delivery of artemisinin-based combination treatment at fixed health facilities reduces malaria prevalence in Tanzania: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been promoted as a means to reduce malaria transmission due to their ability to kill both asexual blood stages of malaria parasites, which sustain infections over long periods and the immature derived sexual stages responsible for infecting mosquitoes and onward transmission. Early studies reported a temporal association between ACT introduction and reduced malaria transmission in a number of ecological settings. However, these reports have come from areas with low to moderate malaria transmission, been confounded by the presence of other interventions or environmental changes that may have reduced malaria transmission, and have not included a comparison group without ACT. This report presents results from the first large-scale observational study to assess the impact of case management with ACT on population-level measures of malaria endemicity in an area with intense transmission where the benefits of effective infection clearance might be compromised by frequent and repeated re-infection. METHODS: A pre-post observational study with a non-randomized comparison group was conducted at two sites in Tanzania. Both sites used sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) monotherapy as a first-line anti-malarial from mid-2001 through 2002. In 2003, the ACT, artesunate (AS) co-administered with SP (AS + SP), was introduced in all fixed health facilities in the intervention site, including both public and registered non-governmental facilities. Population-level prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum asexual parasitaemia and gametocytaemia were assessed using light microscopy from samples collected during representative household surveys in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2006. FINDINGS: Among 37,309 observations included in the analysis, annual asexual parasitaemia prevalence in persons of all ages ranged from 11% to 28% and gametocytaemia prevalence ranged from <1% to 2% between the two sites and across the five survey years. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to adjust for age, socioeconomic status, bed net use and rainfall. In the presence of consistently high coverage and efficacy of SP monotherapy and AS + SP in the comparison and intervention areas, the introduction of ACT in the intervention site was associated with a modest reduction in the adjusted asexual parasitaemia prevalence of 5 percentage-points or 23% (p < 0.0001) relative to the comparison site. Gametocytaemia prevalence did not differ significantly (p = 0.30). INTERPRETATION: The introduction of ACT at fixed health facilities only modestly reduced asexual parasitaemia prevalence. ACT is effective for treatment of uncomplicated malaria and should have substantial public health impact on morbidity and mortality, but is unlikely to reduce malaria transmission substantially in much of sub-Saharan Africa where individuals are rapidly re-infected.

Assessing inter-rater reliability when the raters are fixed: two concepts and two estimates.

Intraclass correlation (ICC) is an established tool to assess inter-rater reliability. In a seminal paper published in 1979, Shrout and Fleiss considered three statistical models for inter-rater reliability data with a balanced design. In their first two models, an infinite population of raters was considered, whereas in their third model, the raters in the sample were considered to be the whole population of raters. In the present paper, we show that the two distinct estimates of ICC developed for the first two models can both be applied to the third model and we discuss their different interpretations in this context.

Designs and model effects definitions in the initial stage of a plant breeding program

The objective of this work was to compare the relative efficiency of initial selection and genetic parameter estimation, using augmented blocks design (ABD), augmented blocks twice replicated design (DABD) and group of randomised block design experiments with common treatments (ERBCT), by simulations, considering fixed effect model and mixed model with regular treatment effects as random. For the simulations, eight different conditions (scenarios) were considered. From the 600 simulations in each scenario, the mean percentage selection coincidence, the Pearsons´s correlation estimates between adjusted means for the fixed effects model, and the heritability estimates for the mixed model were evaluated. DABD and ERBCT were very similar in their comparisons and slightly superior to ABD. Considering the initial stages of selection in a plant breeding program, ABD is a good alternative for selecting superior genotypes, although none of the designs had been effective to estimate heritability in all the different scenarios evaluated.

Survival of zirconia- and metal-supported fixed dental prostheses: a systematic review

Purpose: The aim of this review was to systematically evaluate and compare the frequency of veneer chipping and core fracture of zirconia fixed dental prostheses (FOPS) and porcelain-fused-to-metal (PFM) FDPs and determine possible influencing factors. Materials and Methods: The SCOPUS database and International Association of Dental Research abstracts were searched for clinical studies involving zirconia and PFM FDPs. Furthermore, studies that were integrated into systematic reviews on PFM FDPs were also evaluated. The principle investigators of any clinical studies on zirconia FDPs were contacted to provide additional information. Based on the available information for each FOP, a data file was constructed. Veneer chipping was divided into three grades (grade 1 = polishing, grade 2 = repair, grade 3 = replacement). To assess the frequency of veneer chipping and possible influencing factors, a piecewise exponential model was used to adjust for a study effect. Results: None of the studies on PFM FDPs (reviews and additional searching) sufficiently satisfied the criteria of this review to be included. Thirteen clinical studies on zirconia FDPs and two studies that investigated both zirconia and PFM FDPs were identified. These studies involved 664 zirconia and 134 PFM FDPs at baseline. Follow-up data were available for 595 zirconia and 127 PFM FDPs. The mean observation period was approximately 3 years for both groups. The frequency of core fracture was less than 1% in the zirconia group and 0% in the PFM group. When all studies were included, 142 veneer chippings were recorded for zirconia FDPs (24%) and 43 for PFM FDPs (34%). However, the studies differed extensively with regard to veneer chipping of zirconia: 85% of all chippings occurred in 4 studies, and 43% of all chippings included zirconia FDPs. If only studies that evaluated both types of core materials were included, the frequency of chipping was 54% for the zirconia-supported FDPs and 34% for PFM FDPs. When adjusting the survival rate for the study effect, the difference between zirconia and PFM FDPs was statistically significant for all grades of chippings (P = .001), as well as for chipping grade 3 (P = .02). If all grades of veneer chippings were taken into account, the survival of PFM FDPs was 97%, while the survival rate of the zirconia FDPs was 90% after 3 years for a typical study. For both PFM and zirconia FDPs, the frequency of grades 1 and 2 veneer chippings was considerably higher than grade 3. Veneer chipping was significantly less frequent in pressed materials than in hand-layered materials, both for zirconia and PFM FDPs (P = .04). Conclusions: Since the frequency of veneer chipping was significantly higher in the zirconia FDPs than PFM FDPs, and as refined processing procedures have started to yield better results in the laboratory, new clinical studies with these new procedures must confirm whether the frequency of veneer chipping can be reduced to the level of PFM. Int J Prosthodont 2010;23:493-502

New Operation Model for Maintenance Material Logistics in Paper Industry

This research report illustrates and examines new operation models for decreasing fixed costs and transforming them into variable costs in the field of paper industry. The report illustrates two cases - a new operation model for material logistics in maintenance and an examination of forklift truck fleet outsourcing solutions. Conventional material logistics in maintenance operation is illustrated and some problems related to conventional operation are identified. A new operation model that solves some of these problems is presented including descriptions of procurement and service contracts and sources of added value. Forklift truck fleet outsourcing solutions are examined by illustrating the responsibilities of a host company and a service provider both before and after outsourcing. The customer buys outsourcingservices in order to improve its investment productivity. The mechanism of how these services affect the customer company's investment productivity is illustrated.

A comprehensive model for quantum noise characterization in digital mammography.

NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">A version of cascaded systems analysis was developed specifically with the aim of studying quantum noise propagation in x-ray detectors. Signal and quantum noise propagation was then modelled in four types of x-ray detectors used for digital mammography: four flat panel systems, one computed radiography and one slot-scan silicon wafer based photon counting device. As required inputs to the model, the two dimensional (2D) modulation transfer function (MTF), noise power spectra (NPS) and detective quantum efficiency (DQE) were measured for six mammography systems that utilized these different detectors. A new method to reconstruct anisotropic 2D presampling MTF matrices from 1D radial MTFs measured along different angular directions across the detector is described; an image of a sharp, circular disc was used for this purpose. The effective pixel fill factor for the FP systems was determined from the axial 1D presampling MTFs measured with a square sharp edge along the two orthogonal directions of the pixel lattice. Expectation MTFs were then calculated by averaging the radial MTFs over all possible phases and the 2D EMTF formed with the same reconstruction technique used for the 2D presampling MTF. The quantum NPS was then established by noise decomposition from homogenous images acquired as a function of detector air kerma. This was further decomposed into the correlated and uncorrelated quantum components by fitting the radially averaged quantum NPS with the radially averaged EMTF(2). This whole procedure allowed a detailed analysis of the influence of aliasing, signal and noise decorrelation, x-ray capture efficiency and global secondary gain on NPS and detector DQE. The influence of noise statistics, pixel fill factor and additional electronic and fixed pattern noises on the DQE was also studied. The 2D cascaded model and decompositions performed on the acquired images also enlightened the observed quantum NPS and DQE anisotropy.

A Practical Micro Mechanical Model Based Local Approach Methodology for the Analysis of Ductile Fracture of Welded T-Joints

This thesis concentrates on developing a practical local approach methodology based on micro mechanical models for the analysis of ductile fracture of welded joints. Two major problems involved in the local approach, namely the dilational constitutive relation reflecting the softening behaviour of material, and the failure criterion associated with the constitutive equation, have been studied in detail. Firstly, considerable efforts were made on the numerical integration and computer implementation for the non trivial dilational Gurson Tvergaard model. Considering the weaknesses of the widely used Euler forward integration algorithms, a family of generalized mid point algorithms is proposed for the Gurson Tvergaard model. Correspondingly, based on the decomposition of stresses into hydrostatic and deviatoric parts, an explicit seven parameter expression for the consistent tangent moduli of the algorithms is presented. This explicit formula avoids any matrix inversion during numerical iteration and thus greatly facilitates the computer implementation of the algorithms and increase the efficiency of the code. The accuracy of the proposed algorithms and other conventional algorithms has been assessed in a systematic manner in order to highlight the best algorithm for this study. The accurate and efficient performance of present finite element implementation of the proposed algorithms has been demonstrated by various numerical examples. It has been found that the true mid point algorithm (a = 0.5) is the most accurate one when the deviatoric strain increment is radial to the yield surface and it is very important to use the consistent tangent moduli in the Newton iteration procedure. Secondly, an assessment of the consistency of current local failure criteria for ductile fracture, the critical void growth criterion, the constant critical void volume fraction criterion and Thomason's plastic limit load failure criterion, has been made. Significant differences in the predictions of ductility by the three criteria were found. By assuming the void grows spherically and using the void volume fraction from the Gurson Tvergaard model to calculate the current void matrix geometry, Thomason's failure criterion has been modified and a new failure criterion for the Gurson Tvergaard model is presented. Comparison with Koplik and Needleman's finite element results shows that the new failure criterion is fairly accurate indeed. A novel feature of the new failure criterion is that a mechanism for void coalescence is incorporated into the constitutive model. Hence the material failure is a natural result of the development of macroscopic plastic flow and the microscopic internal necking mechanism. By the new failure criterion, the critical void volume fraction is not a material constant and the initial void volume fraction and/or void nucleation parameters essentially control the material failure. This feature is very desirable and makes the numerical calibration of void nucleation parameters(s) possible and physically sound. Thirdly, a local approach methodology based on the above two major contributions has been built up in ABAQUS via the user material subroutine UMAT and applied to welded T joints. By using the void nucleation parameters calibrated from simple smooth and notched specimens, it was found that the fracture behaviour of the welded T joints can be well predicted using present methodology. This application has shown how the damage parameters of both base material and heat affected zone (HAZ) material can be obtained in a step by step manner and how useful and capable the local approach methodology is in the analysis of fracture behaviour and crack development as well as structural integrity assessment of practical problems where non homogeneous materials are involved. Finally, a procedure for the possible engineering application of the present methodology is suggested and discussed.