An EM-based Semi-Parametric Mixture Model Approach to the Regression Analysis of Competing-Risks Data

We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

As estatais e as PPPs: o project finance como estrat??gia de garantia de investimentos em infra-estrutura

Este trabalho discute o papel das estatais nas PPPs, de modo a garantir investimentos em infraestrutura pelo financiamento via project finance. Partindo de um contexto de privatiza????es desse setor, que, no Brasil, efetivou-se na d??cada de 1990, buscou-se mostrar como surgiu espa??o para o estabelecimento de PPPs, advindas de novas institui????es resultantes do processo de reforma do Estado. O project finance ?? colocado como uma forma de garantir o financiamento desses investimentos. Sua estrutura financeira, baseada na cria????o de uma pessoa jur??dica para a gest??o do empreendimento, busca dirimir os riscos pela eleva????o do n??mero de participantes e pela securitiza????o de receitas futuras, tornando-as l??quidas em curto prazo. A discuss??o sobre o papel do project finance revela que essa ?? uma estrat??gia vi??vel para a garantia de investimentos por parte das estatais, em parceria com o governo e com outras empresas, que levem ao desenvolvimento socioecon??mico sustent??vel do Pa??s.

Offshore outsourcing in large companies: motivations and risks perceived

When companies opt for information systems (IS) outsourcing, within the set of contracted services, they can contract their entire service needs to onshore suppliers or to offshore companies, or part of these services can be contracted to onshore suppliers and the other part to offshore suppliers. The offshore outsourcing reveals itself nowadays as an important strategic option to IS management optimization. This paper presents and discusses the main results of a survey that was carried out in Portugal to determine several aspects of offshore practice in large companies. It allowed the identification of the services more frequently contracted, the most common motivations for choosing offshore suppliers and the main risks perceived by companies. This research contributes to a better understanding of the IS offshore market, enabling client companies and vendors to improve their strategic business action.

Disclosure of Intangible Assets: an Empirical Study of Financial Corporations in the Iberian Peninsula

The purpose of this paper is to analyse, firstly, to what extent intangible assets in the consolidated accounts of seven Portuguese banks and seven Spanish banks between 2006 and 2009 are disclosed and, secondly, to analyse what the most influential factors are in the above mentioned disclosure. In order to do this, before reviewing the existing literature and on the basis of other studies on this topic, a disclosure index has been created based on the requirements related to the intangible assets as stated in IAS 38. Then, two statistical analyses have been made: a univariate one for each of the explanatory variables and a multivariate one, in which all variables have been analysed. Both analyses led to the conclusion that the disclosure index of intangible assets is 0.96, where the bank dimension and the internationalization degree are the variables that are considered explanatory of the variation of the disclosure index in the regression analysis.

The impact of size and age of the company on assessing financial risk

Textiles and tourism sectors are two important sectors in Portuguese economy. Its high exposure to both internal and international economy volatility transform the companies operating in these economic sectors especially vulnerable to recent economic crises in Portugal and European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sector, during the period 2005-2009. The results conclude that age has a stronger impact on the risk of failure than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and depends on the age of the company.

Economic analysis of occupational risk prevention: a case study in a textile company

Work accidents affect business and society as a whole. Fewer accidents mean fewer sick leaves, which results in lower costs and less disruption in the production process, with clear advantages for the employer. But workers and their households bear also a significant burden following a work accident, only partially compen-sated by insurance systems. Furthermore, the consequences of work accidents to the State and Society need also to be considered. When an organization performs an integrated risk analysis in evaluating its Occupational Health and Safety Management System, several steps are suggested to address the identified risk situations. Namely, to avoid risks, a series of preventive measures are identified. The organization should make a detailed analysis of the monetary impact (positive or negative) for the organization of each of the measures considered. Particularly, it is also important to consider the impact of each measure on society, involving an adequate eco-nomic cost-benefit analysis. In the present paper, a case study in a textile finishing company is presented. The study concentrates on the dyeing and printing sections. For each of the potential risks, several preventive measures have been identified and the corresponding costs and benefits have been estimated. Subsequently, the Benefit/Cost ratio (B/C) of these measures has been calculated, both in financial terms (from the organisa-tion’s perspective) and in economic terms (including the benefits for the worker and for the Society). Results show that, while the financial analysis in terms of the company does not justify the preventive measures, when the externalities are taken into account, the B/C ratio increases significantly and investments are fully justified.

Financial and economic analysis of prevention of needlesticks in the hospital sector

This paper discusses the financial and economic analysis of prevention of needlestick accidents related to Occupational Health and Safety projects and presents the application to a case study involving a Hospital.