Designed Extension of Survival Studies: Application to Clinical Trials with Unrecognized Heterogeneity

It is well known that unrecognized heterogeneity among patients, such as is conferred by genetic subtype, can undermine the power of randomized trial, designed under the assumption of homogeneity, to detect a truly beneficial treatment. We consider the conditional power approach to allow for recovery of power under unexplained heterogeneity. While Proschan and Hunsberger (1995) confined the application of conditional power design to normally distributed observations, we consider more general and difficult settings in which the data are in the framework of continuous time and are subject to censoring. In particular, we derive a procedure appropriate for the analysis of the weighted log rank test under the assumption of a proportional hazards frailty model. The proposed method is illustrated through application to a brain tumor trial.

Analyzing Panel Count Data with Informative Observation Times

In this paper, we study panel count data with informative observation times. We assume nonparametric and semiparametric proportional rate models for the underlying recurrent event process, where the form of the baseline rate function is left unspecified and a subject-specific frailty variable inflates or deflates the rate function multiplicatively. The proposed models allow the recurrent event processes and observation times to be correlated through their connections with the unobserved frailty; moreover, the distributions of both the frailty variable and observation times are considered as nuisance parameters. The baseline rate function and the regression parameters are estimated by maximizing a conditional likelihood function of observed event counts and solving estimation equations. Large sample properties of the proposed estimators are studied. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed estimation procedures perform well for moderate sample sizes. An application to a bladder tumor study is presented to illustrate the use of the proposed methods.

Nonparametric Estimation of the Bivariate Recurrence Time Distribution

This paper considers statistical models in which two different types of events, such as the diagnosis of a disease and the remission of the disease, occur alternately over time and are observed subject to right censoring. We propose nonparametric estimators for the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times and the marginal distribution of the first recurrence time. In general, the marginal distribution of the second recurrence time cannot be estimated due to an identifiability problem, but a conditional distribution of the second recurrence time can be estimated non-parametrically. In literature, statistical methods have been developed to estimate the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times based on data of the first pair of censored bivariate recurrence times. These methods are efficient in the current model because recurrence times of higher orders are not used. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are established. Numerical studies demonstrate the estimator performs well with practical sample sizes. We apply the proposed method to a Denmark psychiatric case register data set for illustration of the methods and theory.

Preinterventional screening of the TAVI patient: how to choose the suitable patient and the best procedure.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a novel therapy, which has transformed the management of inoperable patients presenting with symptomatic severe aortic stenosis (AS). It is also a proven and less invasive alternative therapeutic option for high-risk symptomatic patients presenting with severe AS who are otherwise eligible for surgical aortic valve replacement. Patient age is not strictly a limitation for TAVI but since this procedure is currently restricted to high-risk and inoperable patients, it follows that most patients selected for TAVI are at an advanced age. Patient frailty and co-morbidities need to be assessed and a clinical judgment made on whether the patient will gain a measureable improvement in their quality of life. Risk stratification has assumed a central role in selecting suitable patients and surgical risk algorithms have proven helpful in this regard. However, limitations exist with these risk models, which must be understood in the context of TAVI. When making final treatment decisions, it is essential that a collaborative multidisciplinary "heart team" be involved and this is stressed in the most recent guidelines of the European Society of Cardiology. Choosing the best procedure is contingent upon anatomical feasibility, and multimodality imaging has emerged as an integral component of the pre-interventional screening process in this regard. The transfemoral route is now considered the default approach although vascular complications remain a concern. A minimal vessel diameter of 6 mm is required for currently commercial available vascular introducer sheaths. Several alternative access routes are available to choose from when confronted with difficult iliofemoral anatomy such as severe peripheral vascular disease or diffuse circumferential vessel calcification. The degree of aortic valve leaflet and annular calcification also needs to be assessed as the latter is a risk factor for post-procedural paravalvular aortic regurgitation. The ultimate goal of patient selection is to achieve the highest procedural success rate while minimizing complications and to choose patients most likely to derive tangible benefit from this procedure.

Reducing fall risk in the elderly: risk factors and fall prevention, a systematic review

Falls in the elderly are a major source of injury resulting in disability and hospitalization. They have a significant impact on individual basis (loss of quality of live, nursing home admissions) and social basis (healthcare costs). Even though falls in the elderly are common there are some well studied risk factors. Special emphasis should be put on sarcopenia/frailty, polypharmacy, multimorbidity, vitamin D status and home hazards. There are several well evaluated fall prevention approaches that either target a single fall risk factor or focus on multiple risk factors. It has to be kept in mind that not all fall prevention strategies are useful for all patients as for example dietary substitution of vitamin D is only recommended in people with increased risk for a vitamin D deficiency. Home hazard reduction strategies are more effective when combined with other fall prevention approaches such as for example exercise programs. In conclusion elderly patients should routinely be screened for relevant risk factors and if need an indiviudally targeted fall prevention program compiled.

Temporal analysis of PI-3kinase and MAPK signal transduction during skeletal muscle overload

Skeletal muscles can adapt to increased mechanical forces (or loading) by increasing the size and strength of the muscle. Knowledge of the molecular mechanisms by which muscle responds to increased loading may lead to the discovery of novel treatment strategies for muscle wasting and frailty. The objective of this research was to examine the temporal associations between the activation of specific signaling pathway intermediates and their potential upstream regulator(s) in response to increased muscle loading. Previous work has demonstrated that focal adhesion kinase (FAK) activity is increased in overloaded hypertrophying skeletal muscle. Thus FAK is a candidate for transducing the loading stimulus in skeletal muscle, potentially by activating phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K) and members of the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) family. However, it was unknown if muscle overload would result in activation of PI3K or the MAPKs. Thus, this work seeks to characterized the temporal response of (1) MAPK phosphorylation (including Erk 2, p38 MAPK and JNK), (2) PI3K activity, and (3) FAK tyrosine phosphorylation in response to 24 hours of compensatory overload in the rat soleus and plantaris muscles. In both muscles, overload resulted in transient Increases in the phosphorylation state of Erk2 and JNK, which peaked within the first hour of overload and returned to baseline thereafter. In contrast, p38 MAPK phosphorylation remained elevated throughout the entire 24-hour overload period. Moreover, overload increased PI3K activity only, in the plantaris and only at 12 hours. Moreover, 24 hours of overload induced a significant increase in total protein content in the plantaris but not the soleus. Thus an increase in total muscle protein content within the 24-hour loading period was observed only in muscle exhibiting increased PI3K activity. Surprisingly, FAK tyrosine phosphorylation was not increased during the overload period in either muscle, indicating that PI3K activation and increased MAPK phosphorylation were independent of increased FAK tyrosine phosphorylation. In summary, increased PI3K activity and sustained elevation of p38 MAPK phosphorylation were associated with muscle overload, identifying these pathways as potential mediators of the early hypertrophic response to skeletal muscle overload. This suggests that stimuli or mechanisms that activate these pathways may reduce/minimize muscle wasting and frailty. ^

Survival analysis of longevity in siblings

Do siblings of centenarians tend to have longer life spans? To answer this question, life spans of 184 siblings for 42 centenarians have been evaluated. Two important questions have been addressed in analyzing the sibling data. First, a standard needs to be established, to which the life spans of 184 siblings are compared. In this report, an external reference population is constructed from the U.S. life tables. Its estimated mortality rates are treated as baseline hazards from which the relative mortality of the siblings are estimated. Second, the standard survival models which assume independent observations are invalid when correlation within family exists, underestimating the true variance. Methods that allow correlations are illustrated by three different methods. First, the cumulative relative excess mortality between siblings and their comparison group is calculated and used as an effective graphic tool, along with the Product Limit estimator of the survival function. The variance estimator of the cumulative relative excess mortality is adjusted for the potential within family correlation using Taylor linearization approach. Second, approaches that adjust for the inflated variance are examined. They are adjusted one-sample log-rank test using design effect originally proposed by Rao and Scott in the correlated binomial or Poisson distribution setting and the robust variance estimator derived from the log-likelihood function of a multiplicative model. Nether of these two approaches provide correlation estimate within families, but the comparison with the comparison with the standard remains valid under dependence. Last, using the frailty model concept, the multiplicative model, where the baseline hazards are known, is extended by adding a random frailty term that is based on the positive stable or the gamma distribution. Comparisons between the two frailty distributions are performed by simulation. Based on the results from various approaches, it is concluded that the siblings of centenarians had significant lower mortality rates as compared to their cohorts. The frailty models also indicate significant correlations between the life spans of the siblings. ^

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

Modulation of replicative senescence of skeletal muscle satellite cells by insulin -like growth factor-I (IGF-I)

Growth and regeneration of postnatal skeletal muscle requires a population of mononuclear myogenic cells, called satellite cells to add/replace myonuclei, which are postmitotic. Wedged between the sarcolemma and the basal lamina of the skeletal muscle fiber, these cells function as the stem cells of mature muscle fibers. Like other normal diploid cells, satellite cells undergo cellular senescence. Investigations of aging in both rodents and humans have shown that satellite cell self-renewal capacity decreases with advanced age. As a consequence, this could be a potential reason for the characteristically observed age-associated loss in skeletal muscle mass (sarcopenia). This provided the rationale that any intervention that can further increase the proliferative capacity of these cells should potentially be able to either delay, or even prevent sarcopenia. ^ Using clonogenicity assays to determine a cell's proliferation potential, these studies have shown that IGF-I enhances the doubling potential of satellite cells from aged rodents. Using a transgenic model, where the mice express the IGF-I transgene specifically in their striated muscles, some of the underlying biochemical mechanisms for the observed increase in replicative life span were delineated. These studies have revealed that IGF-I activates the PI3/Akt pathway to mediate downregulation of p27KIP1, which consequently is associated with an increase in cyclin E-cdk2 kinase activity, phosphorylation of pRb, and upregulation of cyclin A protein. However, the beneficial effects of IGF-I on satellite cell proliferative potential appears to be limited as chronic overexpression of IGF-I in skeletal muscles did not protect against sarcopenia in 18-mo old mice, and was associated with an exhaustion of satellite cell replicative reserves. ^ These results have shown that replicative senescence can be modulated by environmental factors using skeletal muscle satellite cells as a model system. A better understanding of the molecular basis for enhancement of proliferative capacity by IGF-I will provide a rational basis for developing more effective counter-measures against physical frailty. However, the implications of these studies are that these beneficial effects of enhanced proliferative potential by IGF-I may only be over a short-term period, and other alternative approaches may need to be considered. ^

Roma de amor y muerte : Eros y Thánatos en tres poetas latinos (Horacio, Virgilio, Propercio)

¿De qué modos se vinculan Eros y Thánatos en la poesía latina clásica? Catulo había fijado una primera expresión de tal vínculo. Los poetas del círculo de Mecenas, cada uno a su modo, renuevan el tema. Horacio intenta moderar el miedo a la muerte y el afán amoroso. Virgilio, por su parte, en sus versos sobre Orfeo y Eurídice, nos ofrece otra cifra del enigma: ni el mayor poeta y amante pudo rescatar de la oscuridad a su amada; pero la poesía con que cante su dolor sobrevivirá a la muerte de ambos. Propercio, finalmente, expresa la constante cercanía de amor y muerte; amar es sentir el fondo de la humana fragilidad. Sin embargo, no piensa él meramente en una perduración literaria; afirma que “son algo los manes", pues su amada Cintia, ya muerta, lo ha visitado. “Aun cruza las riberas del Hado un gran amor."

El hábitat como dimensión de la seguridad humana

La respuesta a la inseguridad se ha basado en enfoques policiales y represivos que no han dado los resultados esperados. Las causas son muchas y complejas, pero tres de ellas resultan fundamentales: la exclusión laboral ya educativa de los jóvenes y la desarticulación de las familias. Pero existen otras amenazas relacionadas con el hábitat. Este tema es objeto de estudio del proyecto Habitabilidad y seguridad humana en ambientes urbanos y rurales en el que se demuestra que las condiciones de habitabilidad determinan diferentes situaciones de seguridad y que es posible focalizar en el territorio acciones que respondan a los conflictos sociales y problemáticas del lugar. Se identifican indicadores geográficos complejos con el propósito de detectar la diversidad de situaciones que se presentan, se analizan y ponderan la fragilidad y aptitud del lugar, las modalidades de asentamiento humano y las condiciones en que vive la población. Se llega a la conclusión que el hábitat es una dimensión de la seguridad humana porque si bien el bienestar y equidad son principios de una vida sin necesidades y carencias, el sello distintivo de una vida sin temor lo da la paz, la justicia y condiciones de vida dignas en un ambiente sano y seguro.

Fragilidade e qualidade de vida de idosos com doença renal crônica

Introdução: A expectativa de vida dos brasileiros cresce a cada ano; com isso, os idosos vivem mais, e fatores como, Hipertensão Arterial Sistêmica, Diabetes mellitus e o próprio processo de envelhecimento os tornam suscetíveis à doença renal crônica (DRC). Com a DRC, esses idosos têm maiores chances de desenvolverem a fragilidade e terem consequências desfavoráveis na Qualidade de Vida (QV). Objetivo geral: Analisar a relação entre as variáveis independentes (fragilidade, características sociodemográficas e clínicas) e a variável desfecho (QV) de idosos com DRC em tratamento conservador, hemodiálise (HD) e diálise peritoneal (DP). Material e método: Trata-se de uma pesquisa quantitativa, descritiva e transversal. Participaram idosos com 60 anos ou mais, com DRC em tratamento conservador, HD ou DP, que estavam, no mínimo, há seis meses em tratamento e em acompanhamento em um hospital público de Ribeirão Preto-SP. A coleta de dados ocorreu de outubro/14 a março/15, utilizando-se os seguintes instrumentos: de caracterização sociodemográfica, econômica e clínica adaptado; para avaliar a fragilidade, a Edmonton Frail Scale (EFS); para avaliar a QV, o WHOQOL-BREF e WHOQOL-OLD; para avaliar a cognição, o Mini-Exame do Estado Mental (MEEM). Foram realizadas análises estatísticas descritivas, teste de correlação de Spearman e análise de variância multivariada (MANOVA) para as variáveis de interesse. O nível de significância adotado foi de 5%. O projeto foi aprovado por um Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa com seres humanos com CAAE número 34923214.0.0000.5393; seguiu-se as recomendações da Resolução CNS 466/2012. Resultados: Participaram 77 idosos, sendo 35 em tratamento conservador, 14 em DP e 28 em HD. A maioria era homem (41; 53,2%) e tinha companheiro(a) (51; 66,2%). A média dos escores de fragilidade entre os tratamentos foi: tratamento conservador (7,71±3,10); DP (6,79±2,72) e HD (7,36±2,92). No WHOQOL-BREF, os domínios relações sociais e físico obtiveram maior e menor escores médios, respectivamente, (68,93±17,48) e (55,44±14,11). O WHOQOL-OLD apresentou a maior média na faceta Intimidade (68,67±16,45) e menor média na faceta Morte e morrer (37,66±22,76). Foram encontradas correlações inversas entre a idade e o escore do MEEM (p=0,001) e entre anos de estudo e fragilidade (p=0,016); por outro lado, houve correlações positivas entre os escores do MEEM e anos de estudo (p<0,001), entre número de complicações da DRC e fragilidade (p<0,001) e número de comorbidades e fragilidade (p<0,001). Em relação à QV, houve correlação positiva entre o escore global do WHOQOL-BREF e o escore da faceta global do WHOQOL-OLD, bem como correlação inversa entre os escores globais desses instrumentos com os escores de fragilidade (p<0,00; p=0,023). Na MANOVA, o tipo de tratamento e o número de complicações não influenciaram a QV, porém a fragilidade apresentou relação com o constructo, sendo que, para o aumento de um ponto na escala da fragilidade, a QV apresentou redução média de 1,38 no escore global do WHOQOL-BREF e 0,82 no escore global do WHOQOL-OLD, considerando pertencer ao mesmo tipo de tratamento. Conclusão: os pacientes com DRC apresentaram piores escores médios de QV mediante a maiores escores de fragilidade, independentemente do tipo de tratamento e considerando-se a mesma média de complicações

As dicotomias peso/leveza e forma/ideia na escultura : a desmaterialização progressiva do objecto artístico

The dichotomies Weight/Lightness and Form/Idea formed the theory and the practice of Art, existing a correspondence between them. The weight exists thanks to the existence of a form that is made of matter; in the other hand, the lightness comes from the idea that is always present when the creation exists. This dichotomies were always interconnected during the centuries, and there are variations in relevancy of form and/or idea. In sculpture´s tradition, the physical weight was a essential reality, and the idea of sculpture, without the immaterial side was underlined to the form. During the centuries, new artistic approaches were born and re-born focused on the frailty, lightness and idea of the artistic object, fact that came to cancel the classic notion of work of art. The concept of image became the focus of the esthetical experience of the subject, which alone, tended to substantiate the artistic object itself. In the same way that lightness, when taken to the extreme, and despite the tridimensionality materiality of the object, begun to relate the art with the own action of the body, the gesture of the artist, rising both to the status of art

USING GPS DATA TO EXPLORE DEMOGRAPHIC PREDICTORS OF LIFE-SPACE: A POOLED ANALYSIS

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Inflammation suppressor genes: please switch out all the lights

An effective immune system requires rapid and appropriate activation of inflammatory mechanisms but equally rapid and effective resolution of the inflammatory state. A review of the canonical host response to gram-negative bacteria, the lipopolysaccharide-Toll-like receptor 4 signaling cascade, highlights the induction of repressors that act at each step of the activation process. These inflammation suppressor genes are characterized by their induction in response to pathogen, typically late in the macrophage activation program, and include an expanding class of dominant-negative proteins derived from alternate splicing of common signaling components. Despite the expanse of anti-inflammatory mechanisms available to an activated macrophage, the frailty of this system is apparent in the large numbers of genes implicated in chronic inflammatory diseases. This apparent lack of redundancy between inflammation suppressor genes is discussed with regard to evolutionary benefits in generating a heterogeneous population of immune cells and consequential robustness in defense against new and evolving pathogens.