The likelihood approach to compare populations : a study on DNA evidence and pitfalls of intuitions

The paper follows on from earlier work [Taroni F and Aitken CGG. Probabilistic reasoning in the law, Part 1: assessment of probabilities and explanation of the value of DNA evidence. Science & Justice 1998; 38: 165-177]. Different explanations of the value of DNA evidence were presented to students from two schools of forensic science and to members of fifteen laboratories all around the world. The responses were divided into two groups; those which came from a school or laboratory identified as Bayesian and those which came from a school or laboratory identified as non-Bayesian. The paper analyses these responses using a likelihood approach. This approach is more consistent with a Bayesian analysis than one based on a frequentist approach, as was reported by Taroni F and Aitken CGG. [Probabilistic reasoning in the law, Part 1: assessment of probabilities and explanation of the value of DNA evidence] in Science & Justice 1998.

The Rank Lecture: Has imaging told us anything new about human visual organisation?

The functional architecture of the occipital cortex is being studied with increasing detail. Functional and structural MR based imaging are altering views about the organisation of the human visual system. Recent advances have ranged from comparative studies with non-human primates to predictive scanning. The latter multivariate technique describes with sub-voxel resolution patterns of activity that are characteristic of specific visual experiences. One can deduce what a subject experienced visually from the pattern of cortical activity recorded. The challenge for the future is to understand visual functions in terms of cerebral computations at a mesoscopic level of description and to relate this information to electrophysiology. The principal medical application of this new knowledge has focused to a large extent on plasticity and the capacity for functional reorganisation. Crossmodality visual-sensory interactions and cross-correlations between visual and other cerebral areas in the resting state are areas of considerable current interest. The lecture will review findings over the last two decades and reflect on possible roles for imaging studies in the future.

Predictors of HIV-protection behaviour in HIV-positive men who have sex with casual male partners: a test of the explanatory power of an extended Information-Motivation-Behavioural Skills model.

This prospective study applies an extended Information-Motivation-Behavioural Skills (IMB) model to establish predictors of HIV-protection behaviour among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) during sex with casual partners. Data have been collected from anonymous, self-administered questionnaires and analysed by using descriptive and backward elimination regression analyses. In a sample of 165 HIV-positive MSM, 82 participants between the ages of 23 and 78 (M=46.4, SD=9.0) had sex with casual partners during the three-month period under investigation. About 62% (n=51) have always used a condom when having sex with casual partners. From the original IMB model, only subjective norm predicted condom use. More important predictors that increased condom use were low consumption of psychotropics, high satisfaction with sexuality, numerous changes in sexual behaviour after diagnosis, low social support from friends, alcohol use before sex and habitualised condom use with casual partner(s). The explanatory power of the calculated regression model was 49% (p<0.001). The study reveals the importance of personal and social resources and of routines for condom use, and provides information for the research-based conceptualisation of prevention offers addressing especially people living with HIV ("positive prevention").

Serum anticholinergic activity and postoperative cognitive dysfunction in elderly patients.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral cholinergic transmission plays a key role in cognitive function, and anticholinergic drugs administered during the perioperative phase are a hypothetical cause of postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD). We hypothesized that a perioperative increase in serum anticholinergic activity (SAA) is associated with POCD in elderly patients. METHODS: Seventy-nine patients aged >65 years undergoing elective major surgery under standardized general anesthesia (thiopental, sevoflurane, fentanyl, and atracurium) were investigated. Cognitive functions were assessed preoperatively and 7 days postoperatively using the extended version of the CERAD-Neuropsychological Assessment Battery. POCD was defined as a postoperative decline >1 z-score in at least 2 test variables. SAA was measured preoperatively and 7 days postoperatively at the time of cognitive testing. Hodges-Lehmann median differences and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated for between-group comparisons. RESULTS: Of the patients who completed the study, 46% developed POCD. Patients with POCD were slightly older and less educated than patients without POCD. There were no relevant differences between patients with and without POCD regarding gender, demographically corrected baseline cognitive functions, and duration of anesthesia. There were no large differences between patients with and without POCD regarding SAA preoperatively (pmol/mL, median [interquartile range]/median difference [95% CI], P; 1.14 [0.72, 2.37] vs 1.13 [0.68, 1.68]/0.12 [-0.31, 0.57], P = 0.56), SAA 7 days postoperatively (1.32 [0.68, 2.59] vs 0.97 [0.65, 1.83]/0.25 [-0.26, 0.81], P = 0.37), or changes in SAA (0.08 [-0.50, 0.70] vs -0.02 [-0.53, 0.41]/0.1 [-0.31, 0.52], P = 0.62). There was no significant relationship between changes in SAA and changes in cognitive function (Spearman rank correlation coefficient preoperatively of 0.03 [95% CI, -0.21, 0.26] and postoperatively of -0.002 [95% CI, -0.24, 0.23]). CONCLUSIONS: In this panel of patients with low baseline SAA and clinically insignificant perioperative anticholinergic burden, although a relationship cannot be excluded in some patients, our analysis suggests that POCD is probably not a substantial consequence of anticholinergic medications administered perioperatively but rather due to other mechanisms.

European collaborative study of early-onset bipolar disorder: Evidence for genetic heterogeneity on 2q14 according to age at onset.

Bipolar disorder has a genetic component, but the mode of inheritance remains unclear. A previous genome scan conducted in 70 European families led to detect eight regions linked to bipolar disease. Here, we present an investigation of whether the phenotypic heterogeneity of the disorder corresponds to genetic heterogeneity in these regions using additional markers and an extended sample of families. The MLS statistic was used for linkage analyses. The predivided sample test and the maximum likelihood binomial methods were used to test genetic homogeneity between early-onset bipolar type I (cut-off of 22 years) and other types of the disorder (later onset of bipolar type I and early-onset bipolar type II), using a total of 138 independent bipolar-affected sib-pairs. Analysis of the extended sample of families supports linkage in four regions (2q14, 3p14, 16p23, and 20p12) of the eight regions of linkage suggested by our previous genome scan. Heterogeneity testing revealed genetic heterogeneity between early and late-onset bipolar type I in the 2q14 region (P = 0.0001). Only the early form of the bipolar disorder but not the late form appeared to be linked to this region. This region may therefore include a genetic factor either specifically involved in the early-onset bipolar type I or only influencing the age at onset (AAO). Our findings illustrate that stratification according to AAO may be valuable for the identification of genetic vulnerability polymorphisms.

Fourth order pseudo maximum likelihood methods

We extend PML theory to account for information on the conditional moments up to order four, but without assuming a parametric model, to avoid a risk of misspecification of the conditional distribution. The key statistical tool is the quartic exponential family, which allows us to generalize the PML2 and QGPML1 methods proposed in Gourieroux et al. (1984) to PML4 and QGPML2 methods, respectively. An asymptotic theory is developed. The key numerical tool that we use is the Gauss-Freud integration scheme that solves a computational problem that has previously been raised in several fields. Simulation exercises demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of the methods [Authors]

Real-time dual-wavelength digital holographic microscopy for extended measurement range with enhanced axial resolution

We report on advanced dual-wavelength digital holographic microscopy (DHM) methods, enabling single-acquisition real-time micron-range measurements while maintaining single-wavelength interferometric resolution in the nanometer regime. In top of the unique real-time capability of our technique, it is shown that axial resolution can be further increased compared to single-wavelength operation thanks to the uncorrelated nature of both recorded wavefronts. It is experimentally demonstrated that DHM topographic investigation within 3 decades measurement range can be achieved with our arrangement, opening new applications possibilities for this interferometric technique. ©2008 COPYRIGHT SPIE

Uncertainty about the true source. A note on the likelihood ratio at the activity level.

This paper focuses on likelihood ratio based evaluations of fibre evidence in cases in which there is uncertainty about whether or not the reference item available for analysis - that is, an item typically taken from the suspect or seized at his home - is the item actually worn at the time of the offence. A likelihood ratio approach is proposed that, for situations in which certain categorical assumptions can be made about additionally introduced parameters, converges to formula described in existing literature. The properties of the proposed likelihood ratio approach are analysed through sensitivity analyses and discussed with respect to possible argumentative implications that arise in practice.

Simultaneous biliary drainage and portal vein embolization before extended hepatectomy for hilar cholangiocarcinoma: preliminary experience.

BACKGROUND: Patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma often present obstructive jaundice and a small future remnant liver (FRL) ratio. A sequential approach comprising preoperative biliary drainage followed by portal vein embolization (PVE) is usually performed but leads to long preoperative management (6-12 weeks) before patients can undergo resection. To simplify and shorten this phase of liver preparation, we developed a new preoperative approach that involves percutaneous biliary drainage and PVE during the same procedure. We report the outcomes of this combined procedure. METHODS: During 1 year, four patients underwent simultaneous biliary drainage and PVE followed 1 month later by surgical resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma. Liver volumes were assessed by CT before, and 1, and 3 months after the combined procedure. Serum liver enzymes were assessed before and 1 month after the combined procedure. RESULTS: The combined procedure was feasible in all cases, with no related complications. After the combined procedure, transaminases remained stable or decreased, whereas gamma-glutamyl-transpeptidase, alkaline phosphatase, and bilirubin decreased. During the first month, the left lobe volume increased by +27.9 % (range 19-40.9 %). The FRL ratio increased from 24.9 to 33.2 %. All patients underwent R0 liver resection with a favorable postoperative outcome. The remnant liver volume increased by +132 % (range 78-245 %) between 1 and 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: Simultaneous percutaneous biliary drainage and PVE is feasible. This all-in-one preoperative approach greatly decreases waiting time until surgical resection. These encouraging results warrant further investigation to confirm the safety and to evaluate the reduction in the dropout rate for liver resection in this tumor with poor prognosis.

Clinical outcome and risk factors related to extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Klebsiella spp. infection among hospitalized patients

Over the past two decades, nosocomial infections caused by extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Klebsiella spp. have become a major problem all around the world. This situation is of concern because there are limited antimicrobial options to treat patients infected with these pathogens, and also because this kind of resistance can spread to a wide variety of Gram-negative bacilli. Our objectives wereto evaluate among in-patients at a publicuniversity tertiary-care hospital with documented infection due to Klebsiella spp., which were the risk factors (cross-sectional analysis) and the clinical impact (prospective cohort) associated with an ESBL-producing strain. Study subjects were all patients admitted at the study hospital between April 2002 and October 2003, with a clinically and microbiologically confirmed infection caused by Klebsiella spp. at any body site, except infections restricted to the urinary tract. Of the 104 patients studied, 47 were infected with an ESBL-producing strain and 57 with a non-ESBL-producing strain. Independent risk factors associated with infection with an ESBL-producing strain were young age, exposure to mechanical ventilation, central venous catheter, use of any antimicrobial agent, and particularly use of a 4th generation cephalosporin or a quinolone. Length of stay was significant longer for patients infected with ESBL-producing strains than for those infected with non-ESBL-producing strains, although fatality rate was not significantly affected by ESBL-production in this cohort. In fact, mechanical ventilation and bacteremia were the only variables withindependent association withdeath detected in this investigation.

Extended spectrum beta lactamase (ESBL) resistant bacteria - including accessible formats

Information for patients and visitors on extended spectrum beta lactamase (ESBL) resistant bacteria and how to help prevent the spread of infection.Accessible formatsThe below document is available as a pdf and in accessible formats. Accessible formats are alternatives to printed information, used by people who are blind or visually impaired. These accessible formats include HTML, audio and braille. �For audio and HTML copies please click on the links below. For braille copies please contact Caroline McGeary on 0300 555 0114.

In vitro activity of fosfomycin against extended-spectrum-beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae: comparison of susceptibility testing procedures

The agar dilution, broth microdilution, and disk diffusion methods were compared to determine the in vitro susceptibility of 428 extended-spectrum-beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae to fosfomycin. Fosfomycin showed very high activity against all ESBL-producing strains. Excellent agreement between the three susceptibility methods was found for E. coli, whereas marked discrepancies were observed for K. pneumoniae.

A Change in the Epidemiology of Infections Due to Extended-Spectrum b-Lactamase–Producing Organisms

Extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs) form a heterogeneous group that share the property of hydrolytic activity against the oxyimino-β-lactams while remaining susceptible to inhibition by β-lactamase inhibitors, such as clavulanic acid. From a clinical point of view, they are important because they confer resistance to penicillins, aztreonam, and cephalosporins, and ESBL-producing organisms are typically also resistant to aminoglycosides, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and quinolones [1]. Until recently, the main problem posed by ESBLs was related to nosocomial outbreaks caused by ESBL-producing Klebsiella species. These outbreaks are usually clonal, the strains are mainly spread through cross-transmission, and the risk factors are similar to those found for other multidrug-resistant nosocomial pathogens [2]. In Europe and the United States, most ESBL-producing Klebsiella isolates harbored enzymes belonging to the TEM and SHV families [3]. Detection of colonized patients by performing surveillance cultures within affected units, isolation precautions for colonized patients, and restriction of oxyimino-β-lactam use are frequently useful for the control of these outbreaks [1]. There is no evidence that hospital-acquired ESBL-producing klebsiellae are decreasing in importance—in fact, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that 20.6% of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates from United States intensive care units in 2003 were probable producers of ESBL [4]. This represented a 47% increase, compared with the preceding 5 years. However, during the last few years, an impressive increase in the number of ESBL-producing Escherichia coli (and, less frequently, other Enterobacteriaceae) is being described in several parts of the world [5–8]. This emergent phenomenon shows some differences from the problem posed by Klebsiella species; many of these ESBL-producing E. coli are isolated …

Bacteremia due to extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli in the CTX-M era: a new clinical challenge.

Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli, particularly those producing CTX-M types of ESBL, are emerging pathogens. Bacteremia caused by these organisms represents a clinical challenge, because the organisms are frequently resistant to the antimicrobials recommended for treatment of patients with suspected E. coli sepsis. METHODS:A cohort study was performed that included all episodes of bloodstream infection due to ESBL-producing E. coli during the period from January 2001 through March 2005. Data on predisposing factors, clinical presentation, and outcome were collected. ESBLs were characterized using isoelectric focusing, polymerase chain reaction, and sequencing. RESULTS: Forty-three episodes (8.8% of cases of bacteremia due to E. coli) were included; 70% of the isolates produced a CTX-M type of ESBL. The most frequent origins of infection were the urinary (46%) and biliary tracts (21%). Acquisition was nosocomial in 21 cases (49%), health care associated in 14 cases (32%), and strictly community acquired in 8 cases (19%). Thirty-eight percent and 25% of patients had obstructive diseases of the urinary and biliary tracts, respectively, and 38% had recently received antimicrobials. Nine patients (21%) died. Compared with beta-lactam/beta-lactamase-inhibitor and carbapenem-based regimens, empirical therapy with cephalosporins or fluoroquinolones was associated with a higher mortality rate (9% vs. 35%; P=.05) and needed to be changed more frequently (24% vs. 78%; P=.001). CONCLUSIONS: ESBL-producing E. coli is a significant cause of bloodstream infection in hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients in the context of the emergence of CTX-M enzymes. Empirical treatment of sepsis potentially caused by E. coli may need to be reconsidered in areas where such ESBL-producing isolates are present.