Spatio-Temporal Tracking and Phylodynamics of an Urban Dengue 3 Outbreak in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The dengue virus has a single-stranded positive-sense RNA genome of similar to 10.700 nucleotides with a single open reading frame that encodes three structural (C, prM, and E) and seven nonstructural (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) proteins. It possesses four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV 1-4). Many phylogenetic studies address particularities of the different serotypes using convenience samples that are not conducive to a spatio-temporal analysis in a single urban setting. We describe the pattern of spread of distinct lineages of DENV-3 circulating in Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil, during 2006. Blood samples from patients presenting dengue-like symptoms were collected for DENV testing. We performed M-N-PCR using primers based on NS5 for virus detection and identification. The fragments were purified from PCR mixtures and sequenced. The positive dengue cases were geo-coded. To type the sequenced samples, 52 reference sequences were aligned. The dataset generated was used for iterative phylogenetic reconstruction with the maximum likelihood criterion. The best demographic model, the rate of growth, rate of evolutionary change, and Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were estimated. The basic reproductive rate during the epidemics was estimated. We obtained sequences from 82 patients among 174 blood samples. We were able to geo-code 46 sequences. The alignment generated a 399-nucleotide-long dataset with 134 taxa. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that all samples were of DENV-3 and related to strains circulating on the isle of Martinique in 2000-2001. Sixty DENV-3 from Sao Jose do Rio Preto formed a monophyletic group (lineage 1), closely related to the remaining 22 isolates (lineage 2). We assumed that these lineages appeared before 2006 in different occasions. By transforming the inferred exponential growth rates into the basic reproductive rate, we obtained values for lineage 1 of R(0) = 1.53 and values for lineage 2 of R(0) = 1.13. Under the exponential model, TMRCA of lineage 1 dated 1 year and lineage 2 dated 3.4 years before the last sampling. The possibility of inferring the spatio-temporal dynamics from genetic data has been generally little explored, and it may shed light on DENV circulation. The use of both geographic and temporally structured phylogenetic data provided a detailed view on the spread of at least two dengue viral strains in a populated urban area.

CHARACTERIZATION OF EXPONENTIAL DIVERGENCE OF THE KALMAN FILTER FOR TIME-VARYING SYSTEMS

This paper studies semistability of the recursive Kalman filter in the context of linear time-varying (LTV), possibly nondetectable systems with incorrect noise information. Semistability is a key property, as it ensures that the actual estimation error does not diverge exponentially. We explore structural properties of the filter to obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for the filter to be semistable. The condition does not involve limiting gains nor the solution of Riccati equations, as they can be difficult to obtain numerically and may not exist. We also compare semistability with the notions of stability and stability w.r.t. the initial error covariance, and we show that semistability in a sense makes no distinction between persistent and nonpersistent incorrect noise models, as opposed to stability. In the linear time invariant scenario we obtain algebraic, easy to test conditions for semistability and stability, which complement results available in the context of detectable systems. Illustrative examples are included.

Cold Nuclear Matter Effects on J/psi Yields as a Function of Rapidity and Nuclear Geometry in d plus A Collisions at root S(NN)=200 GeV

We present measurements of J/psi yields in d + Au collisions at root S(NN) = 200 GeV recorded by the PHENIX experiment and compare them with yields in p + p collisions at the same energy per nucleon-nucleon collision. The measurements cover a large kinematic range in J/psi rapidity (-2.2 < y < 2.4) with high statistical precision and are compared with two theoretical models: one with nuclear shadowing combined with final state breakup and one with coherent gluon saturation effects. In order to remove model dependent systematic uncertainties we also compare the data to a simple geometric model. The forward rapidity data are inconsistent with nuclear modifications that are linear or exponential in the density weighted longitudinal thickness, such as those from the final state breakup of the bound state.

Enhanced Production of Direct Photons in Au plus Au Collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV and Implications for the Initial Temperature

The production of e(+)e(-) pairs for m(e+e-) < 0.3 GeV/c(2) and 1< p(T) < 5 GeV/c is measured in p + p and Au + Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. An enhanced yield above hadronic sources is observed. Treating the excess as photon internal conversions, the invariant yield of direct photons is deduced. In central Au + Au collisions, the excess of the direct photon yield over p + p is exponential in transverse momentum, with an inverse slope T = 221 +/- 19(stat) +/- 19(syst) MeV. Hydrodynamical models with initial temperatures ranging from T(init) similar to 300-600 MeV at times of similar to 0.6-0.15 fm/c after the collision are in qualitative agreement with the data. Lattice QCD predicts a phase transition to quark gluon plasma at similar to 170 MeV.

Detailed measurement of the e(+)e(-) pair continuum in p plus p and Au plus Au collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV and implications for direct photon production

PHENIX has measured the e(+)e(-) pair continuum in root s(NN) = 200 GeV Au+Au and p+p collisions over a wide range of mass and transverse momenta. The e(+)e(-) yield is compared to the expectations from hadronic sources, based on PHENIX measurements. In the intermediate-mass region, between the masses of the phi and the J/psi meson, the yield is consistent with expectations from correlated c (c) over bar production, although other mechanisms are not ruled out. In the low-mass region, below the phi, the p+p inclusive mass spectrum is well described by known contributions from light meson decays. In contrast, the Au+Au minimum bias inclusive mass spectrum in this region shows an enhancement by a factor of 4.7 +/- 0.4(stat) +/- 1.5(syst) +/- 0.9(model). At low mass (m(ee) < 0.3 GeV/c(2)) and high p(T) (1 < p(T) < 5 GeV/c) an enhanced e(+)e(-) pair yield is observed that is consistent with production of virtual direct photons. This excess is used to infer the yield of real direct photons. In central Au+Au collisions, the excess of the direct photon yield over the p+p is exponential in p(T), with inverse slope T = 221 +/- 19(stat) +/- 19(syst) MeV. Hydrodynamical models with initial temperatures ranging from T(init) similar or equal to 300-600 MeV at times of 0.6-0.15 fm/c after the collision are in qualitative agreement with the direct photon data in Au+Au. For low p(T) < 1 GeV/c the low-mass region shows a further significant enhancement that increases with centrality and has an inverse slope of T similar or equal to 100 MeV. Theoretical models underpredict the low-mass, low-p(T) enhancement.

INFERENCE FOR EIGENVALUES AND EIGENVECTORS OF GAUSSIAN SYMMETRIC MATRICES

This article presents maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) and log-likelihood ratio (LLR) tests for the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of Gaussian random symmetric matrices of arbitrary dimension, where the observations are independent repeated samples from one or two populations. These inference problems are relevant in the analysis of diffusion tensor imaging data and polarized cosmic background radiation data, where the observations are, respectively, 3 x 3 and 2 x 2 symmetric positive definite matrices. The parameter sets involved in the inference problems for eigenvalues and eigenvectors are subsets of Euclidean space that are either affine subspaces, embedded submanifolds that are invariant under orthogonal transformations or polyhedral convex cones. We show that for a class of sets that includes the ones considered in this paper, the MLEs of the mean parameter do not depend on the covariance parameters if and only if the covariance structure is orthogonally invariant. Closed-form expressions for the MLEs and the associated LLRs are derived for this covariance structure.

Hitting and returning to rare events for all alpha-mixing processes

We prove that for any a-mixing stationary process the hitting time of any n-string A(n) converges, when suitably normalized, to an exponential law. We identify the normalization constant lambda(A(n)). A similar statement holds also for the return time. To establish this result we prove two other results of independent interest. First, we show a relation between the rescaled hitting time and the rescaled return time, generalizing a theorem of Haydn, Lacroix and Vaienti. Second, we show that for positive entropy systems, the probability of observing any n-string in n consecutive observations goes to zero as n goes to infinity. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the classification of mixed construction and demolition waste aggregate by porosity and its impact on the mechanical performance of concrete

The properties of recycled aggregate produced from mixed (masonry and concrete) construction and demolition (C&D) waste are highly variable, and this restricts the use of such aggregate in structural concrete production. The development of classification techniques capable of reducing this variability is instrumental for quality control purposes and the production of high quality C&D aggregate. This paper investigates how the classification of C&D mixed coarse aggregate according to porosity influences the mechanical performance of concrete. Concretes using a variety of C&D aggregate porosity classes and different water/cement ratios were produced and the mechanical properties measured. For concretes produced with constant volume fractions of water, cement, natural sand and coarse aggregate from recycled mixed C&D waste, the compressive strength and Young modulus are direct exponential functions of the aggregate porosity. Sink and float technique is a simple laboratory density separation tool that facilitates the separation of cement particles with lower porosity, a difficult task when done only by visual sorting. For this experiment, separation using a 2.2 kg/dmA(3) suspension produced recycled aggregate (porosity less than 17%) which yielded good performance in concrete production. Industrial gravity separators may lead to the production of high quality recycled aggregate from mixed C&D waste for structural concrete applications.

The Poisson-exponential lifetime distribution

In this paper we proposed a new two-parameters lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate. The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risk problem base. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulae for its reliability and failure rate functions, quantiles and moments, including the mean and variance. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates is presented. The Fisher information matrix is derived analytically in order to obtaining the asymptotic covariance matrix. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SELF-SIMILARITY AND LAMPERTI CONVERGENCE FOR FAMILIES OF STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

We define a new type of self-similarity for one-parameter families of stochastic processes, which applies to certain important families of processes that are not self-similar in the conventional sense. This includes Hougaard Levy processes such as the Poisson processes, Brownian motions with drift and the inverse Gaussian processes, and some new fractional Hougaard motions defined as moving averages of Hougaard Levy process. Such families have many properties in common with ordinary self-similar processes, including the form of their covariance functions, and the fact that they appear as limits in a Lamperti-type limit theorem for families of stochastic processes.

Development of Ramulosis Disease of Cotton Under Controlled Environment and Field Conditions

Colletotrichum gossypii var. cephalosporioides, the fungus that causes ramulosis disease of cotton, is widespread in Brazil and can cause severe yield loss. Because weather conditions greatly affect disease development, the objective of this work was to develop weather-based models to assess disease favorability. Latent period, incidence, and severity of ramulosis symptoms were evaluated in controlled environment experiments using factorial combinations of temperature (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 degrees C) and leaf wetness duration (0, 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 h after inoculation). Severity was modeled as an exponential function of leaf wetness duration and temperature. At the optimum temperature of disease development, 27 degrees C, average latent period was 10 days. Maximum ramulosis severity occurred from 20 to 30 degrees C, with sharp decreases at lower and higher temperatures. Ramulosis severity increased as wetness periods were increased from 4 to 32 h. In field experiments at Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, cotton plots were inoculated (10(5) conidia ml(-1)) and ramulosis severity was evaluated weekly. The model obtained from the controlled environment study was used to generate a disease favorability index for comparison with disease progress rate in the field. Hourly measurements of solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness duration, rainfall, and wind speed were also evaluated as possible explanatory variables. Both the disease favorability model and a model based on rainfall explained ramulosis growth rate well, with R(2) of 0.89 and 0.91, respectively. They are proposed as models of ramulosis development rate on cotton in Brazil, and weather-disease relationships revealed by this work can form the basis of a warning system for ramulosis development.

Optimization of preservative system in ophthalmic suspension with dexamethasone and polymyxin B

A simplex-lattice statistical project was employed to study an optimization method for a preservative system in an ophthalmic suspension of dexametasone and polymyxin B. The assay matrix generated 17 formulas which were differentiated by the preservatives and EDTA (disodium ethylene diamine-tetraacetate), being the independent variable: X-1 = chlorhexidine digluconate (0.010 % w/v); X-2 = phenylethanol (0.500 % w/v); X-3 = EDTA (0.100 % w/v). The dependent variable was the Dvalue obtained from the microbial challenge of the formulas and calculated when the microbial killing process was modeled by an exponential function. The analysis of the dependent variable, performed using the software Design Expert/W, originated cubic equations with terms derived from stepwise adjustment method for the challenging microorganisms: Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Burkholderia cepacia, Staphylococcus aureus, Candida albicans and Aspergillus niger. Besides the mathematical expressions, the response surfaces and the contour graphics were obtained for each assay. The contour graphs obtained were overlaid in order to permit the identification of a region containing the most adequate formulas (graphic strategy), having as representatives: X-1 = 0.10 ( 0.001 % w/v); X-2 = 0.80 (0.400 % w/v); X-3 = 0.10 (0.010 % w/v). Additionally, in order to minimize responses (Dvalue), a numerical strategy corresponding to the use of the desirability function was used, which resulted in the following independent variables combinations: X-1 = 0.25 (0.0025 % w/v); X-2 = 0.75 (0.375 % w/v); X-3 = 0. These formulas, derived from the two strategies (graphic and numerical), were submitted to microbial challenge, and the experimental Dvalue obtained was compared to the theoretical Dvalue calculated from the cubic equation. Both Dvalues were similar to all the assays except that related to Staphylococcus aureus. This microorganism, as well as Pseudomonas aeruginosa, presented intense susceptibility to the formulas independently from the preservative and EDTA concentrations. Both formulas derived from graphic and numerical strategies attained the recommended criteria adopted by the official method. It was concluded that the model proposed allowed the optimization of the formulas in their preservation aspect.

Involvement of an Alternative Oxidase in Oxidative Stress and Mycelium-to-Yeast Differentiation in Paracoccidioides brasiliensis

Paracoccidioides brasiliensis is a thermodimorphic human pathogenic fungus that causes paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM), which is the most prevalent systemic mycosis in Latin America. Differentiation from the mycelial to the yeast form (M-to-Y) is an essential step for the establishment of PCM. We evaluated the involvement of mitochondria and intracellular oxidative stress in M-to-Y differentiation. M-to-Y transition was delayed by the inhibition of mitochondrial complexes III and IV or alternative oxidase (AOX) and was blocked by the association of AOX with complex III or IV inhibitors. The expression of P. brasiliensis aox (Pbaox) was developmentally regulated through M-to-Y differentiation, wherein the highest levels were achieved in the first 24 h and during the yeast exponential growth phase; Pbaox was upregulated by oxidative stress. Pbaox was cloned, and its heterologous expression conferred cyanide-resistant respiration in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Escherichia coli and reduced oxidative stress in S. cerevisiae cells. These results reinforce the role of PbAOX in intracellular redox balancing and demonstrate its involvement, as well as that of other components of the mitochondrial respiratory chain complexes, in the early stages of the M-to-Y differentiation of P. brasiliensis.

Preparation, characterization and in vitro cytotoxicity of BSA-based nanospheres containing nanosized magnetic particles and/or photosensitizer

This study reports on the preparation, characterization and in vitro toxicity test of a new nano-drug delivery system (NDDS) based on bovine serum albumin (BSA) nanospheres which incorporates surface-functionalized magnetic nanoparticles (MNP) and/or the silicon(IV) phthalocyanine (NzPc). The new NDDS was engineered for use in photodynamic therapy (PDT) combined with hyperthermia (HPT) to address cancer treatment. The BSA-based nanospheres, hosting NzPc, MNP or both (NzPc and MNP), present spherical shape with hydrodynamic average diameter values ranging from 170 to 450 nm and zeta potential of around -23 mV. No difference on the fluorescence spectrum of the encapsulated NzPc was found regardless of the presence of MNP. Time-dependent fluorescence measurements of the encapsulated NzPc revealed a bi-exponential decay for samples incorporating only NzPc and NzPc plus MNP, in the time window ranging from 1.70 to 5.20 ns. The in vitro assay, using human fibroblasts, revealed no cytotoxic effect in all samples investigated, demonstrating the potential of the tested system as a synergistic NDDS. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anthocyanin synthesis, growth and nutrient uptake in suspension cultures of strawberry cells

Strawberry (Fragaria ananassa cv. Shikinari) cell suspension cultures carried out in shake flasks for 18 d were closely examined for cell growth, anthocyanin synthesis and the development of pigmented cells in relation to the uptake of carbohydrate, extracellular PO4, NO3, NH4, and calcium. Cell viability, extracellular anthocyanin content, pH and electrical conductivity of the broth were also monitored. The specific growth rate of strawberry cells at exponential phase was 0.27 and 0.28 d(-1) based on fresh and dry weight, respectively. Anthocyanin synthesis was observed to increase continuously to a maximum value of 0.86 mg/g fresh cell weight (FCW) at day 6, and was partially growth-associated. Anthocyanin synthesis was linearly related to the increase in pigmented cell ratio, which increased with time and reached a maximum value of ca. 70% at day 6 due to reduction in cell viability and depletion of substrate. Total carbohydrate uptake was closely associated with increase in cell growth, and glucose was utilized in preference to fructose. Nitrate and ammonia were consumed until 9 d of culture, but phosphate was completely absorbed within 4 d. Calcium was assimilated throughout the growth cycle. After 9 d, cell lysis was observed which resulted in the leakage of intracellular substances and a concomitant pH rise. Anthocyanin was never detected in the broth although the broth became darkly pigmented during the lysis period. This suggests that anthocyanin was synthesized only by viable pigmented cells, and degraded rapidly upon cell death and lysis. Based on the results of kinetic analysis, a model was developed by incorporating governing equations for the ratio of pigmented cells into a Bailey and Nicholson's model. This was verified by comparison with the experimental data. The results suggest Bat the model satisfactorily describes the strawberry cell culture process, and may thus be used for process optimization.