Good Morning, America! The explosive U.S. awakening to the need for adaptation

Since the early years of the 21st century, and in particular since 2007, the U.S. has been awakening rapidly to the fact that climate change is underway and that even if stringent efforts are undertaken to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, adaptation to the unavoidable impacts from the existing commitment to climate change is still needed and needs to be begun now. This report provides an historical overview of the public, political, and scientific concern with adaptation in the United States. It begins by briefly distinguishing ongoing, historical adaptation to environmental circumstances from deliberate adaptation to human‐induced climate change. It then describes the shift from the early concerns with climate change and adaptation to the more recent awakening to the need for a comprehensive approach to managing the risks from climate change. Ranging from the treatment of the topic in the news media to the drafting of bills in Congress, to state and local government activities with considerable engagement of NGOs, scientists and consultants, it is apparent that adaptation has finally, and explosively, emerged on the political agenda as a legitimate and needed subject for debate. At the same time, the current policy rush is not underlain by widespread public engagement and mobilization nor does it rest on a solid research foundation. Funding for vulnerability and adaptation research, establishing adequate decision support institutions, as well as the building of the necessary capacity in science, the consulting world, and in government agencies, lags far behind the need. (PDF contains 42 pages)

An evaluation of length-frequency sampling procedures and subsequent data analysis for purse seine-caught yellowfin tuna in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: A two-stage sampling design is used to estimate the variances of the numbers of yellowfin in different age groups caught in the eastern Pacific Ocean. For purse seiners, the primary sampling unit (n) is a brine well containing fish from a month-area stratum; the number of fish lengths (m) measured from each well are the secondary units. The fish cannot be selected at random from the wells because of practical limitations. The effects of different sampling methods and other factors on the reliability and precision of statistics derived from the length-frequency data were therefore examined. Modifications are recommended where necessary. Lengths of fish measured during the unloading of six test wells revealed two forms of inherent size stratification: 1) short-term disruptions of existing pattern of sizes, and 2) transition zones between long-term trends in sizes. To some degree, all wells exhibited cyclic changes in mean size and variance during unloading. In half of the wells, it was observed that size selection by the unloaders induced a change in mean size. As a result of stratification, the sequence of sizes removed from all wells was non-random, regardless of whether a well contained fish from a single set or from more than one set. The number of modal sizes in a well was not related to the number of sets. In an additional well composed of fish from several sets, an experiment on vertical mixing indicated that a representative sample of the contents may be restricted to the bottom half of the well. The contents of the test wells were used to generate 25 simulated wells and to compare the results of three sampling methods applied to them. The methods were: (1) random sampling (also used as a standard), (2) protracted sampling, in which the selection process was extended over a large portion of a well, and (3) measuring fish consecutively during removal from the well. Repeated sampling by each method and different combinations indicated that, because the principal source of size variation occurred among primary units, increasing n was the most effective way to reduce the variance estimates of both the age-group sizes and the total number of fish in the landings. Protracted sampling largely circumvented the effects of size stratification, and its performance was essentially comparable to that of random sampling. Sampling by this method is recommended. Consecutive-fish sampling produced more biased estimates with greater variances. Analysis of the 1988 length-frequency samples indicated that, for age groups that appear most frequently in the catch, a minimum sampling frequency of one primary unit in six for each month-area stratum would reduce the coefficients of variation (CV) of their size estimates to approximately 10 percent or less. Additional stratification of samples by set type, rather than month-area alone, further reduced the CV's of scarce age groups, such as the recruits, and potentially improved their accuracy. The CV's of recruitment estimates for completely-fished cohorts during the 198184 period were in the vicinity of 3 to 8 percent. Recruitment estimates and their variances were also relatively insensitive to changes in the individual quarterly catches and variances, respectively, of which they were composed. SPANISH: Se usa un diseño de muestreo de dos etapas para estimar las varianzas de los números de aletas amari11as en distintos grupos de edad capturados en el Océano Pacifico oriental. Para barcos cerqueros, la unidad primaria de muestreo (n) es una bodega de salmuera que contenía peces de un estrato de mes-área; el numero de ta11as de peces (m) medidas de cada bodega es la unidad secundaria. Limitaciones de carácter practico impiden la selección aleatoria de peces de las bodegas. Por 10 tanto, fueron examinados los efectos de distintos métodos de muestreo y otros factores sobre la confiabilidad y precisión de las estadísticas derivadas de los datos de frecuencia de ta11a. Se recomiendan modificaciones donde sean necesarias. Las ta11as de peces medidas durante la descarga de seis bodegas de prueba revelaron dos formas de estratificación inherente por ta11a: 1) perturbaciones a corto plazo en la pauta de ta11as existente, y 2) zonas de transición entre las tendencias a largo plazo en las ta11as. En cierto grado, todas las bodegas mostraron cambios cíclicos en ta11a media y varianza durante la descarga. En la mitad de las bodegas, se observo que selección por ta11a por los descargadores indujo un cambio en la ta11a media. Como resultado de la estratificación, la secuencia de ta11as sacadas de todas las bodegas no fue aleatoria, sin considerar si una bodega contenía peces de un solo lance 0 de mas de uno. El numero de ta11as modales en una bodega no estaba relacionado al numero de lances. En una bodega adicional compuesta de peces de varios lances, un experimento de mezcla vertical indico que una muestra representativa del contenido podría estar limitada a la mitad inferior de la bodega. Se uso el contenido de las bodegas de prueba para generar 25 bodegas simuladas y comparar los resultados de tres métodos de muestreo aplicados a estas. Los métodos fueron: (1) muestreo aleatorio (usado también como norma), (2) muestreo extendido, en el cual el proceso de selección fue extendido sobre una porción grande de una bodega, y (3) medición consecutiva de peces durante la descarga de la bodega. EI muestreo repetido con cada método y distintas combinaciones de n y m indico que, puesto que la fuente principal de variación de ta11a ocurría entre las unidades primarias, aumentar n fue la manera mas eficaz de reducir las estimaciones de la varianza de las ta11as de los grupos de edad y el numero total de peces en los desembarcos. El muestreo extendido evito mayormente los efectos de la estratificación por ta11a, y su desempeño fue esencialmente comparable a aquel del muestreo aleatorio. Se recomienda muestrear con este método. El muestreo de peces consecutivos produjo estimaciones mas sesgadas con mayores varianzas. Un análisis de las muestras de frecuencia de ta11a de 1988 indico que, para los grupos de edad que aparecen con mayor frecuencia en la captura, una frecuencia de muestreo minima de una unidad primaria de cada seis para cada estrato de mes-área reduciría los coeficientes de variación (CV) de las estimaciones de ta11a correspondientes a aproximadamente 10% 0 menos. Una estratificación adicional de las muestras por tipo de lance, y no solamente mes-área, redujo aun mas los CV de los grupos de edad escasos, tales como los reclutas, y mejoró potencialmente su precisión. Los CV de las estimaciones del reclutamiento para las cohortes completamente pescadas durante 1981-1984 fueron alrededor de 3-8%. Las estimaciones del reclutamiento y sus varianzas fueron también relativamente insensibles a cambios en las capturas de trimestres individuales y las varianzas, respectivamente, de las cuales fueron derivadas. (PDF contains 70 pages)

An integrated approach for evaluating coastal vulnerability in a changing climate

Coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion threaten many coastal communities and ecosystems. With documented increases in both storm frequency and intensity and projected acceleration of sea level rise, incorporating the impacts of climate change and variability into coastal vulnerability assessments is becoming a necessary, yet challenging task. We are developing an integrated approach to probabilistically incorporate the impacts of climate change into coastal vulnerability assessments via a multi-scale, multi-hazard methodology. By examining the combined hazards of episodic flooding/inundation and storm induced coastal change with chronic trends under a range of future climate change scenarios, a quantitative framework can be established to promote more sciencebased decision making in the coastal zone. Our focus here is on an initial application of our method in southern Oregon, United States. (PDF contains 5 pages)

热容型板条激光器的感应折射率计算

高平均功率固体激光器的增益介质由于受热而容易发生畸变,如常用材料YAG,波前畸变和去偏振现象会同时发生,高热负载固体激光介质的热效应已成为制约激光器输出功率进一步提高的严重障碍。给出一种计算热容型板条激光器热感生折射率的方法。把YAG晶体的四阶压光张量从晶胞坐标系转换到实验室坐标系,采用经过坐标转换后的新的张量,可以分析在YAG激光器中任意应力分布引起的热感应双折射。进一步的计算表明,在zigzag板条激光器中,应力双折射率与板条从晶体毛胚上切割成材的角度有关。同时也对热容板条激光器的热效应和应力特性进行了二维的理论性概述。

锯齿形板条抽运结构的热效应数值比较

激光二极管抽运的全固态激光器中,除了激光介质的温度分布和热透镜效应以外,抽运、冷却结构对获得高光束质量、高功率激光输出至关重要。基于热传导方程,在相同的抽运功率和传导冷却边界条件下,对单侧面抽运锯齿形(zigzag)板条、单侧面键合锯齿形板条、部分抽运板条三种不同抽运结构的温度分布、热致应力、温度导致的折射率变化进行了详细的分析,并通过光线追迹方法,比较了光束在锯齿形面内和垂直于锯齿形面内的光程差,由光程差曲线分析了激光束的热透镜效应。对三种抽运结构的端面温度、端面变形和端面变形导致的光程差也进行了对比分

Fibre optic installation techniques for pile instrumentation

An innovative technique based on optical fibre sensing that allows continuous strain measurement has recently been introduced in structural health monitoring. Known as Brillouin Optical Time-Domain Reflectometry (BOTDR), this distributed optical fibre sensing technique allows measurement of strain along the full length (up to 10km) of a suitably installed optical fibre. Examples of recent implementations of BOTDR fibre optic sensing in piles are described in this paper. Two examples of distributed optical fibre sensing in piles are demonstrated using different installation techniques. In a load bearing pile, optical cables were attached along the reinforcing bars by equally spaced spot gluing to measure the axial response of pile to ground excavation induced heave and construction loading. Measurement of flexural behaviour of piles is demonstrated in the instrumentation of a secant piled wall where optical fibres were embedded in the concrete by simple endpoint clamping. Both methods have been verified via laboratory works. © 2009 IOS Press.

The response of piled buildings to deep excavations

This paper explores the influence of the piled foundation on the building response to excavation-induced deformations. The influence of the type of foundation, the position of positive and negative skin friction zones, and the flexibility of the piles is evaluated with respect to both horizontal and vertical soil deformations. Case histories from the Netherlands are included from Amsterdam (North South Line) and Rotterdam (a building adjacent to the Willemspoortunnel). Most of the buildings are founded on timber piles ranging in length from 12-17 m. Conclusions are drawn about the interaction between the piled building and the soil deformation. © 2012 Taylor & Francis Group.

Estimation of soil properties and deformations in staged constructions based on mcmc method

This paper presents a Bayesian probabilistic framework to assess soil properties and model uncertainty to better predict excavation-induced deformations using field deformation data. The potential correlations between deformations at different depths are accounted for in the likelihood function needed in the Bayesian approach. The proposed approach also accounts for inclinometer measurement errors. The posterior statistics of the unknown soil properties and the model parameters are computed using the Delayed Rejection (DR) method and the Adaptive Metropolis (AM) method. As an application, the proposed framework is used to assess the unknown soil properties of multiple soil layers using deformation data at different locations and for incremental excavation stages. The developed approach can be used for the design of optimal revisions for supported excavation systems. © 2010 ASCE.

Building damage assessment for deep excavations in Singapore and the influence of building stiffness

One of the biggest issues for underground construction in a densely built-up urban environment is the potentially adverse impact on buildings adjacent to deep excavations. In Singapore, a building damage assessment is usually carried out using a three-staged approach to assess the risk of damage caused by major underground construction projects. However, the tensile strains used for assessing the risk of building damage are often derived using deflection ratios and horizontal strains under 'greenfield' conditions. This ignores the effects of building stiffness and in many cases may be conservative. This paper presents some findings from a study on the response of buildings to deep excavations. Firstly, the paper discusses the settlement response of an actual building - the Singapore Art Museum - adjacent to a deep excavation. By comparing the monitored building settlement with the adjacent ground settlement markers, the influence of building stiffness in modifying the response to excavation-induced settlements is observed. Using the finite element method, a numerical study on the building response to movements induced by deep excavations found a consistent relationship between the building modification factor and a newly defined relative bending stiffness of the building. This relationship can be used as a design guidance to estimate the deflection ratio in a building from the greenfield condition. By comparing the case study results with the design guidance developed from finite element analysis, this paper presents some important characteristics of the influence of building stiffness on building damages for deep excavations.

Growth of crack-free AlGaN film on thin AlN interlayer by MOCVD

We have studied the effect of low-temperature-deposited (LT) and high-temperature-deposited (FIT) AlN interlayer with various thickness on AlGaN film grown on GaN using c-plane sapphire as substrate. All the Al0.25Ga0.75N films thicker than 1 mum with LT-AlN interlayer or with HT-AlN interlayer were free of cracks, however, their surfaces were different: the Al0.25Ga0.75N films with LT-AlN interlayer showed smooth surface, while those with HT-AlN interlayer exhibit rough surface morphology. The results of X-ray double crystal diffraction and Rutherford backscattering showed that all of the AlGaN films were under compressive strain in the parallel direction. The compressive strain resulted from the effect of interlayer-induced stress relieving and the thermal mismatch for the samples with LT-AlN interlayer, and it was due to the thermal mismatch between AlGaN and the underlying layers for those with HT-AlN interlayer. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Crack-free GaN/Si(111) epitaxial layers grown with InAlGaN alloy as compliant interlayer by metalorganic chemical vapor deposition

A new method is demonstrated to be effective in reducing mismatch-induced tensile stress and suppressing the formation of cracks by inserting InAlGaN interlayers during the growth of GaN upon Si (1 1 1) substrate. Compared with GaN film without quaternary interlayer, GaN layer grown on InAlGaN compliant layers shows a five times brighter integrated PL intensity and a (0 0 0 2) High-resolution X-ray diffraction (HRXRD) curve width of 18 arcmin. Its chi(min), derived from Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS), is about 2.0%, which means that the crystalline quality of this layer is very good. Quaternary InAlGaN layers, which are used as buffer layers firstly, can play a compliant role to endure the large mismatch-induced stress and reduce cracks during the growth of GaN epitaxy. The mechanisms leading to crack density reduction are investigated and results show that the phase immiscibility and the weak In-N bond make interlayer to offer tenability in the lattice parameters and release the thermal stress. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Light-excited structural instability of a-Si : H.

With the accumulation of experimental data, it has been recognized by many that the light-induced metastable change of a-Si:H, Staebler-Wronski effect (SWE), may be related to a structural instability of the whole a-Si:H network. However, direct evidence of such a structural change is still lacking. In the present paper, the efforts of our laboratory in this direction will be reviewed, including the light-induced changes of Si-H bond absorption, low frequency dielectric response, and an apparent photo-dilation effect.

STUDY ON LOW-FREQUENCY RAMAN SPECTRA OF n-DECYLAMMONIUM CHLORIDE

The low-frequency Raman spectrum of n-decylammonium chloride was measured as a function of temperature in the temperature range from 290 to 340K, and the longitudinal acoustical mode vibration band was assigned. The results showed that there are two phase transitions at 313K and 321K, respectively. The phase transition at 313K is mainly induced by change of hydrocarbon chain conformations, while that at 321K is mainly induced by change of order degree of molecular packing. The results suggest low-frequency Raman spectroscopy is a useful probe of structural phase transition for long-chain compounds.

Midlatitude daytime D region ionosphere variations measured from radio atmospherics

We measured the midlatitude daytime ionospheric D region electron density profile height variations in July and August 2005 near Duke University by using radio atmospherics (or sferics for short), which are the high-power, broadband very low frequency (VLF) signals launched by lightning discharges. As expected, the measured daytime D region electron density profile heights showed temporal variations quantitatively correlated with solar zenith angle changes. In the midlatitude geographical regions near Duke University, the observed quiet time heights decreased from ∼80 km near sunrise to ∼71 km near noon when the solar zenith angle was minimum. The measured height quantitative dependence on the solar zenith angle was slightly different from the low-latitude measurement given in a previous work. We also observed unexpected spatial variations not linked to the solar zenith angle on some days, with 15% of days exhibiting regional differences larger than 0.5 km. In these 2 months, 14 days had sudden height drops caused by solar flare X-rays, with a minimum height of 63.4 km observed. The induced height change during a solar flare event was approximately proportional to the logarithm of the X-ray flux. In the long waveband (wavelength, 1-8 Å), an increase in flux by a factor of 10 resulted in 6.3 km decrease of the height at the flux peak time, nearly a perfect agreement with the previous measurement. During the rising and decaying phases of the solar flare, the height changes correlated more consistently with the short, rather than the long, wavelength X-ray flux changes. © 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.