Ciclos económicos, capital bancario y nuevas opciones de política económica

El objetivo de este trabajo es utilizar algunos hechos estilizados de la "Gran recesión", específicamente la drástica caída en el nivel de capitalización bancario, para analizar la relación entre los ciclos financieros y los ciclos reales, así como la efectividad de la política monetaria no convencional y las políticas macroprudenciales. Para esto, en el primer capítulo se desarrolla una microfundamentación de la banca a partir de un modelo de Costly State Verification, que es incluido posteriomente en distintas especificaciones de modelos DSGE. Los resultados muestran que: (i) los ciclos financieros y los ciclos económicos pueden relacionarse a partir del deterioro del capital bancario; (ii) Las políticas macroprudenciales y no convencionales son efectivas para moderar los ciclos económicos, pero son costosas en términos de recursos e inflación.

Actores y factores del contexto institucional que permiten entender la discusión y aprobación de la Ley 975 de 2005

El trabajo de investigación es un estudio de caso que pretende analizar la forma en que factores del contexto institucional y la capacidad de influencia de ciertos actores se reflejan en la discusión y aprobación de la Ley 975 de 2005. Factores del contexto institucional y la capacidad de influencia sobre las posiciones asumidas por los actores políticos y sociales en las diferentes etapas del proceso legislativo y sobre las decisiones que se tomaron para la aprobación de la Ley, en torno a dos elementos fundamentales de ésta que son el delito político y la rebaja de penas. Para ello, se tiene en cuenta el enfoque neo-institucional y el concepto de agencia.

Chaotic Patterns in Aeroelastic Signals

This work presents the analysis of nonlinear aeroelastic time series from wing vibrations due to airflow separation during wind tunnel experiments. Surrogate data method is used to justify the application of nonlinear time series analysis to the aeroelastic system, after rejecting the chance for nonstationarity. The singular value decomposition (SVD) approach is used to reconstruct the state space, reducing noise from the aeroelastic time series. Direct analysis of reconstructed trajectories in the state space and the determination of Poincare sections have been employed to investigate complex dynamics and chaotic patterns. With the reconstructed state spaces, qualitative analyses may be done, and the attractors evolutions with parametric variation are presented. Overall results reveal complex system dynamics associated with highly separated flow effects together with nonlinear coupling between aeroelastic modes. Bifurcations to the nonlinear aeroelastic system are observed for two investigations, that is, considering oscillations-induced aeroelastic evolutions with varying freestream speed, and aeroelastic evolutions at constant freestream speed and varying oscillations. Finally, Lyapunov exponent calculation is proceeded in order to infer on chaotic behavior. Poincare mappings also suggest bifurcations and chaos, reinforced by the attainment of maximum positive Lyapunov exponents. Copyright (C) 2009 F. D. Marques and R. M. G. Vasconcellos.

Nominal versus indexed debt: A quantitative horse race

The main arguments in favor and against nominal and indexed debts are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortion, government outlays uncertainty, and contingent-debt service. Our framework also recognizes that contingent debt can be associated with incentive problems and lack of commitment. Thus, the benefits of unexpected inflation are tempered by higher interest rates. We obtain that costs from inflation more than offset the benefits from reducing tax distortions. We further discuss sustainability of nominal debt in developing (volatile) countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abuse liability of intra-nasal midazolam in inhaled-cocaine abusers

Intra-nasally instilled benzodiazepines have been proposed for acute anxiety episodes. However, routes with faster absorption may increase abuse liability. This study compared abuse liability of intra-nasal midazolam between subjects with a history of intra-nasal drug abuse and non-psychiatric subjects on a single-blind randomized controlled trial. Thirty-one inhaled-cocaine abusers and 34 normal volunteers received either 1 mg intra-nasal midazolam or active placebo. Visual analogue scales assessing desire to repeat the experience (ER) and Experience Liking (EL) assessed abuse liability. Profile analysis for repeated measures showed a significant effect of time over ER (F-[5,F-57]=3.311, p=0.011) and EL (F-[5,F-57]=3.947, p=0.004), diagnostic group (cocaine abusers scoring higher on both - F-[5,F-57]=5.229, p=0.026; F-[5,F-57]=4.946, p=0.030), regardless of the administered substance. It is concluded that the intra-nasal route does not seem to pose risks for non-psychiatric individuals, but it may represent a risk in itself for subjects with a history of drug abuse through this path. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

Remuneração executiva e desempenho: evidências empíricas no mercado de capitais brasileiro

O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar a relação existente entre remuneração executiva e desempenho em companhias brasileiras de capital aberto listadas na BM&FBOVESPA. A linha teórica parte do pressuposto que o contrato de incentivos corrobora com o alinhamento de interesses entre acionistas e executivos e atua como um mecanismo de governança corporativa a fim de direcionar os esforços dos executivos para maximização de valor da companhia. A amostra foi composta pelas 100 companhias mais líquidas listadas em quantidade de negociações de ações na BM&FBOVESPA durante o período 2010-2012, totalizando 296 observações. Os dados foram extraídos dos Formulários de Referência disponibilizados pela CVM e a partir dos softwares Economática® e Thomson Reuters ®. Foram estabelecidas oito hipóteses de pesquisa e estimados modelos de regressão linear múltipla com a técnica de dados em painel desbalanceado, empregando como variável dependente a remuneração total e a remuneração média individual e como regressores variáveis concernentes ao desempenho operacional, valor de mercado, tamanho, estrutura de propriedade, governança corporativa, além de variáveis de controle. Para verificar os fatores que explicam a utilização de stock options, programa de bônus e maior percentual de remuneração variável foram estimados modelos de regressão logit. Os resultados demonstram que, na amostra selecionada, existe relação positiva entre remuneração executiva e valor de mercado. Verificou-se também que os setores de mineração, química, petróleo e gás exercem influência positiva na remuneração executiva. Não obstante, exerce relação inversa com a remuneração total à concentração acionária, o controle acionário público e o fato da companhia pertencer ao nível 2 ou novo mercado conforme classificação da BMF&BOVESPA. O maior valor de mercado influencia na utilização de stock options, assim como no emprego de bônus, sendo que este também é impactado pelo maior desempenho contábil. Foram empregados também testes de robustez com estimações por efeitos aleatórios, regressões com erros-padrão robustos clusterizados, modelos dinâmicos e os resultados foram similares. Conclui-se que a remuneração executiva está relacionada com o valor corporativo gerando riqueza aos acionistas, mas que a ausência de relação com o desempenho operacional sugere falhas no sistema remuneratório que ainda depende de maior transparência e outros mecanismos de governança para alinhar os interesses entre executivos e acionistas.

When not-for-profit try to influence firms

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

When not-for-profit try to influence firms

I study the influence of not-for-profit entities in companies, through shareholders proposals in the U.S. largest companies. This paper analyzes the not-for-profit entities involved, the issues addressed by the proposals and the financial characteristics of target companies, as well as market reactions and voting outcomes. Results indicate that not-for-profit entities tend to target companies with higher profitability and value more frequently than general investors. Furthermore, the voting outcome is influenced by insider ownership and types of proposals. Finally, market reactions change with profitability, leverage, ownership structure and types of proposals.

Financiamento bancário e o desempenho das empresas em portugal: qual a relação?

Dissertação de mestrado em Economia Monetária, Bancária e Financeira

Governance mechanisms in Spanish financial intermediaries

This paper examines the governance of Spanish Banks around two main issues. First, does a poor economic performance activate those governance interventions that favor the removal of executive directors and the merger of non-performing banks? And second, does the relationship between governance intervention and economic performance vary with the ownership form of the bank? Our results show that a bad performance does activate governance mechanisms in banks, although for the case of Savings Banks intervention is confined to a merger or acquisition. Nevertheless, the distinct ownership structure of Savings Banks does not fully protect non-performing banks from disappearing. Product-market competition compensates for those weak internal governance mechanisms that result from an ownership form which gives voice to several stakeholder groups.

Multinational Firms’ Heterogeneity in Tax Responsiveness: the Role of Transfer Pricing

In this paper we show that the ability of multinational firms to manipulate transfer prices affects the tax sensitivity of foreign direct investment (FDI). We offer a model of international capital allocation where firms are heterogeneous in their ability to manipulate transfer prices. Perhaps paradoxically, we show that the ability to shift profits can make parent companies' investment more sensitive to host-country tax rates, as long as investors expect fisscal authorities to use price and profit detection methods. We then offer a comprehensive empirical study to test our predictions in the case of Japanese FDI. We exploit the finding that the unobservable ability to manipulate transfer prices is correlated with whole ownership of a±liates and R&D expenditure. Based on country, parent firm and sector characteristics, we estimate an investment equation on a sample of 3614 Japanese affiliates in 49 emerging countries. We obtain a greater semi-elasticity of investment to the statutory tax rate in a±liates that are wholly-owned and that have R&D intensive parents. We interpret these results as indirect evidence that abusive transfer pricing is one of the determinants of FDI activity.

Specialization and rent-seeking in moral enforcement: The case of confession

Moral codes are produced and enforced by more or less specialized means and are subject to standard economic forces. This paper argues that the intermediary role played by the Catholic Church between God and Christians, a key difference from Protestantism, faces the standard trade-off of specialization benefits and agency costs. It applies this trade-off hypothesis to confession of sins to priests, an institution that epitomizes such intermediation, showing that this hypothesis fits cognitive, historical and econometric evidence better than a simpler rent-seeking story. In particular, Catholics who confess more often are observed to comply more with the moral code; however, no relationship is observed between mass attendance and moral compliance. The data also links the current decline in confession to the rise in education, which makes moral self-enforcement less costly, and to the productivity gap suffered by confession services, given its necessarily interpersonal nature.

Setting standards: Information accumulation in development

We propose a model in which economic relations and institutions in advancedand less developed economies differ as these societies have access to different amounts of information. This lack of information makes it hard to give the right incentives to managers and entrepreneurs. We argue that differences in the amount of information arise because of the differences in the scale of activities in rich and poor economies; namely, there is too little repetition of similar activities in pooreconomies, thus insufficient information to set the appropriate standards for firm performance. Our model predicts a number of institutional and structural transformations as the economy accumulates capital and information.

Naudan lietelannan käsittelymenetelmien taloudellinen vertailu

Maataloudessa syntyvä lanta on arvokas lannoite ja maanparannusaine, jonka käsittelystä aiheutuu sekä kustannuksia että ympäristövaikutuksia. Muita haasteita ovat esimerkiksi lannan mikrobit, lannan levitykseen soveltuvan ajankohdan lyhyys, lannan ravinteiden sovittaminen kasvien tarpeisiin ja lannan ravinteiden määrä suhteessa levityskelpoisen peltoalan määrään. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tunnistaa naudan lietelannan käsittelyketjuihin liittyvät kustannukset ja osoittaa eri käsittelyketjujen kustannusten eroavaisuudet. Tavoitteena oli myös tunnistaa ja osoittaa käsittelyketjujen laadulliset erot. Kustannukset selvitettiin kustannuslaskelmin ja laadulliset erot SWOT-menetelmällä. Tutkimuksen kohteeksi valittiin 6 tilakokoluokkaa ja käsittelyketjuiksi lietelanta-, kompostointi- ja mädätysketju. Tutkimuksessa alhaisimmat kustannukset olivat lietelantaketjulla, jonka kustannukset 25 – 250 naudan tilalla olivat 5 200 – 6 600 €/a ja yksikkökustannukset 1 – 9 €/m3. Mädätysketjun kustannukset vastaavissa tilakokoluokissa olivat noin 33 000 – 50 000 €/a ja yksikkökustannukset 8 – 55 €/m3. Kompostointiketjun kustannukset olivat 35 000 – 143 000 €/a ja yksikkökustannukset 24 – 58 €/m3. Lietelantaketjun edullisuus johtui vähäisistä laite- ja rakennusinvestoinneista ja pienistä työmääristä ja kompostointiketjun kalleus suurista tukiaine- ja investointikustannuksista. Käsittelyketjujen asettaminen paremmuusjärjestykseen oli hankalaa. Työn määrä oli pienin lietelantaketjussa ja toiseksi pienin suurilla tiloilla mädätysketjussa. Kompostointiketjulla itse levitykseen kuluva aika oli pienin. Ravinteiden osalta mädätysketju oli parhain ja kompostointiketju huonoin. Ympäristövaikutuksiltaan ja hajuhaitoiltaan kompostointi- ja mädätysketju olivat parhaimmat. Mikrobien osalta parhain oli kompostointiketju.

Läpinäkyvyys venäläisissä pörssiyhtiöissä - yhtiöiden Internetissä julkaisema informaatio

Tutkielman ensisijaisena tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten corporate governance eli hyvä hallintotapa on kehittynyt Venäjällä. Tutkimuksessa keskityttiin eritoten yritystoiminnan läpinäkyvyyteen ja siihen, minkälaista informaatiota yritysten pitäisi vuosittain julkaista. Tutkimuksessa tutkittiin minkälaista informaatiota Moskovan pörssiin listautuneet yritykset julkaisevat. Tavoitteena oli tutkia, julkaisevatko yritykset informaatiota OECD:n corporate governancve suositusten mukaisesti. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytettiin havaintotutkimusta. Tutkimuksessa saatiin selkeä kuvasiitä, mitä corporate governance tarkoittaa ja siitä miten se on kehittynyt Venäjällä. Tutkimuksen aineisto kerättiin Moskovan pörssiin listautuneista yrityksistä, koska Venäjä tutkimuskohteena on mielenkiintoinen ja koska corporate governance teema on vasta viime vuosina tullut ajankohtaiseksi venäläisissä yrityksissä. Tutkimuksessa saadut tulokset osoittavat, että yritykset julkaisevat informaatiota melko hajanaisesti ja pörssi joutuu edelleen tyytymään puutteelliseen informaatioon. Venäjän yritystoiminnasta puuttuu vakaus, ja instituutiot eivät vielätue corporate governance -suositusten toimeenpanemista ainakaan kovin hyvin. Myös toimiala ja yrityksen omistusrakenne vaikuttavat jonkin verran siihen, minkälaista tietoa yritys tuottaa. Eri toimialojen välillä on huomattaviakin eroja sen suhteen, miten kattavasti niistä on saatavissa informaatiota. Omistusrakenne on tämän tutkimuksen yrityksissä erilainen kuin Venäjällä yleensä ja ulkomaista omistusta on paljon.