Maintenance and construction outsourcing in a public-owned electricity network company

Euroopan sähkösektori on ollut viimeisen vuosikymmenen suurten mullistusten kourissa. Sähkömarkkinoiden avautumisen jälkeen monopoliliiketoimintaa harjoittavien sähköyhtiöiden on ollut pakko parantaa tuottavuuttaan. Ratkaisuksi tähän on etsitty apua huolto- ja rakennustoimintojen ulkoistamisella. Ulkoistaminen on kuitenkin uusi menetelmä tällä sektorilla. Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää syyt, jotka tanskalaisella sähköverkkoyhtiöllä oli huolto- ja rakennustoimintojen ulkoistamiseen, sekä löytää siitä saatavat hyödyt ja siihen sisältyvät riskit. Tutkimus suoritetaan käyttäen apuna kirjallisuutta, saatavilla olevia due diligence-, sekä muita raportteja ja analyysejä, sekä tapausta koskettavien tahojen haastatteluja.Lisäksi sähköverkkoalan asiantuntijoiden kanssa käytyjä konsultointia käytetäänselvitykseen. Tutkimus osoittaa, että perimmäiset ajurit huolto- ja rakennustoimintojen ulkoistamiseen tulivat lainmuutosten ja vapautuneiden sähkömarkkinoiden asettamista paineista. Kunnallisessa organisaatiossa parantaa tehokkuutta ulkoistamalla jotain toimintoja yksityisomisteiselle palvelun tuottajalle. Muut ulkoistamisesta odotetut hyödyt olivat alentuneet kustannukset, virtaviivaisempi organisaation ja sähköverkkoyhtiön tehottomista osista eroon pääseminen ennen sen myymistä.

Regulation of Electricity Transmission and Distribution in Russia

The regulation of electricity transmission and distribution business is an essential issue for any electricity market; it is widely introduced in developed electricity markets of Great Britain, Scandinavian countries and United States of America and other. Those markets which were liberalized recently also need well planned regulation model to be chosen and implemented. In open electricity markets the sectors of electricity distribution and transmission remain monopolies, so called "natural monopolies", as introducing the competition into these sectors in most cases appears to be inefficient. Thatis why regulation becomes very important as its main tasks are: to set reasonable tariffs for customers, to ensure non-discriminating process of electricity transmission and distribution, at the same time to provide distribution companies with incentives to operate efficiently and the owners of the companies with reasonable profits as well; the problem of power quality should be solved at the same time. It should be mentioned also, that there is no incentive scheme which will be suitable for any conditions, that is why it is essential to study differentregulation models in order to form the best one for concrete situation. The aim of this Master's Thesis is to give an overview over theregulation of electricity transmission and distribution in Russia. First, the general information about theory of regulation of natural monopolies will be described; the situation in Russian network business and the importance of regulation process for it will be discussed next. Then there is a detailed description ofexisting regulatory system and the process of tariff calculation with an example. And finally, in the work there is a brief analysis of problems of present scheme of regulation, an attempt to predict the following development of regulationin Russia and the perspectives and risks connected to regulation which could face the companies that try to enter Russian electricity market (such as FORTUM OY).

Profit at Risk as a Risk Management Tool in Deregulated Energy Markets

Euroopan energiamarkkinat ovat olleet viimeisen kymmenen vuoden aikana suurten muutosten alla. Markkinoiden kehitys on ollut huomattavaa myös Iso-Britanniassa, jossa sähkö- ja kaasumarkkinat ovat olleet avoinna kilpailulle jo muutamia vuosia. Ennen markkinoiden avautumista energiyhtiöt pystyivät siirtämään kaikki riskit suoraan asiakkaan kannettaviksi. Markkinoiden avautumisen myötä lisääntynyt kilpailu on kuitenkin pakottanut energiayhtiöitä ajanmukaistamaan näkemyksiään riskeistä. Riskitekijät, joista ei aiemmin tarvinnut välittää, on nyt pystyttävä tunnistamaan ja hallitsemaan. Tämä työ keskittyy hinta- ja volyymiriskien hallintaan. Rahoitusmarkkinoilla pitkään käytettyjä riskienhallintatyökaluja on otettu käyttöön myös energiamarkkinoilla. Energiamarkkinoiden piirteet poikkeavat kuitenkin rahoitusmarkkinoista, eikä näitä työkaluja voida ottaa käyttöön muutoksitta. Silti, jopa muutosten jälkeen rahoitusmarkkinoiden riskienhallitavälineet aliarvioivat energiamarkkinoiden hinta- ja volyymiriskejä. Tässä yhteydessä työssä esitetään Profit at Risk, PaR. PaR on skenaariopohjainen riskienhallinnan työkalu, joka on kehitetty erityisesti energiamarkkinoille ja täten huomioi niiden erikoispiirteet. Työn rungon muodostavat energiamarkkinoiden käyttäytyminen, hinta- ja volyymiriskitekijät sekä pohdinta miten hinta- ja volyymiriskeiltä voidaan suojautua ja miten niitä voidaan hallita. PaR-metodologiaa verrataan perinteisiin riskienhallintamenetelmiin ja työn tavoitteena on tuoda esiin ne tekijät, joiden ansiosta PaR on sopivampi työkalu energiamarkkinoiden riskienhallintaan kuin perinteiset menetelmät. Käytännön esimerkkinä työssä toimii Fortum Energy plus’n PaR –malli. Koska PaR on kehitetty erityisesti energiamarkkinoille, se huomioi täysin markkinoiden aiheuttamat hinta- ja volyymiriskit. Käytännön esimerkki kuitenkin osoittaa, että PaR menetelmästä ei ole riskienhallinnallista hyötyä ellei työkalun käyttäjällä ole täydellistä tietämystä niin energiamarkkinoista kuin markkinoiden muutoksiin vaikuttavien tekijöiden käyttäytymisestä.

Prognosis of after spot volumes at the Scandinavian electricity market

The Thesis is dedicated to development of an operative tool to support decision making in after spot trading on the Nordic electricity market. The basics of the Nordic electricity market, trading mechanisms on the spot and after spot markets are presented in the Thesis. Mathematical equations that describe electricity balance condition in the power system are offered. The main driving factors that impact deviation of actual electricity balance from the scheduled one (object) in the power system have been explored and mathematically defined. The behavioral model of the object and principal trends in change of state of the object under an impact of the driving factors are determined with the help of regression analysis made in Microsoft Office Excel. The behavioral model gives an indication for the total regulation volume (Elbas trades volume, volume of regulation market, balance power) for a certain hour that serves as the base input in estimating prices on the after spot markets. Proposals for development of methodologies of forecasting the after spot electricity prices are offered.

Simulation and optimization of IGCC technique for power generation and hydrogen production by using lignite Thar coal and cotton stalk

The purpose of this study was to simulate and to optimize integrated gasification for combine cycle (IGCC) for power generation and hydrogen (H2) production by using low grade Thar lignite coal and cotton stalk. Lignite coal is abundant of moisture and ash content, the idea of addition of cotton stalk is to increase the mass of combustible material per mass of feed use for the process, to reduce the consumption of coal and to increase the cotton stalk efficiently for IGCC process. Aspen plus software is used to simulate the process with different mass ratios of coal to cotton stalk and for optimization: process efficiencies, net power generation and H2 production etc. are considered while environmental hazard emissions are optimized to acceptance level. With the addition of cotton stalk in feed, process efficiencies started to decline along with the net power production. But for H2 production, it gave positive result at start but after 40% cotton stalk addition, H2 production also started to decline. It also affects negatively on environmental hazard emissions and mass of emissions/ net power production increases linearly with the addition of cotton stalk in feed mixture. In summation with the addition of cotton stalk, overall affects seemed to negative. But the effect is more negative after 40% cotton stalk addition so it is concluded that to get maximum process efficiencies and high production less amount of cotton stalk addition in feed is preferable and the maximum level of addition is estimated to 40%. Gasification temperature should keep lower around 1140 °C and prefer technique for studied feed in IGCC is fluidized bed (ash in dry form) rather than ash slagging gasifier

Distributed energy resources in an electricity retailer’s short-term profit optimization

Liberalization of electricity markets has resulted in a competed Nordic electricity market, in which electricity retailers play a key role as electricity suppliers, market intermediaries, and service providers. Although these roles may remain unchanged in the near future, the retailers’ operation may change fundamentally as a result of the emerging smart grid environment. Especially the increasing amount of distributed energy resources (DER), and improving opportunities for their control, are reshaping the operating environment of the retailers. This requires that the retailers’ operation models are developed to match the operating environment, in which the active use of DER plays a major role. Electricity retailers have a clientele, and they operate actively in the electricity markets, which makes them a natural market party to offer new services for end-users aiming at an efficient and market-based use of DER. From the retailer’s point of view, the active use of DER can provide means to adapt the operation to meet the challenges posed by the smart grid environment, and to pursue the ultimate objective of the retailer, which is to maximize the profit of operation. This doctoral dissertation introduces a methodology for the comprehensive use of DER in an electricity retailer’s short-term profit optimization that covers operation in a variety of marketplaces including day-ahead, intra-day, and reserve markets. The analysis results provide data of the key profit-making opportunities and the risks associated with different types of DER use. Therefore, the methodology may serve as an efficient tool for an experienced operator in the planning of the optimal market-based DER use. The key contributions of this doctoral dissertation lie in the analysis and development of the model that allows the retailer to benefit from profit-making opportunities brought by the use of DER in different marketplaces, but also to manage the major risks involved in the active use of DER. In addition, the dissertation introduces an analysis of the economic potential of DER control actions in different marketplaces including the day-ahead Elspot market, balancing power market, and the hourly market of Frequency Containment Reserve for Disturbances (FCR-D).

A review of the costs and benefits of demand response for electricity in the UK

The recent policy discussion in the UK on the economic case for demand response (DR) calls for a reflection on available evidence regarding its costs and benefits. Existing studies tend to consider the size of investments and returns of certain forms of DR in isolation and do not consider economic welfare effects. From review of existing studies, policy documents, and some simple modelling of benefits of DR in providing reserve for unforeseen events, we demonstrate that the economic case for DR in UK electricity markets is positive. Consideration of economic welfare gains is provided.

Privatisation and cross-border electricity trade: from internal market to European Supergrid?

he perspective European Supergrid would consist of an integrated power system network, where electricity demands from one country could be met by generation from another country. This paper makes use of a bi-linear fixed-effects model to analyse the determinants for trading electricity across borders among 34 countries connected by the European Supergrid. The key question that this paper aims to address is the extent to which the privatisation of European electricity markets has brought about higher cross-border trade of electricity. The analysis makes use of distance, price ratios, gate closure times, size of peaks and aggregate demand as standard determinants. Controlling for other standard determinants, it is concluded that privatisation in most cases led to higher power exchange and that the benefits are more significant where privatisation measures have been in place for a longer period.

Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.

Forecasting Electricity Prices and their volatilities using Unobserved Components.

The liberalization of electricity markets more than ten years ago in the vast majority of developed countries has introduced the need of modelling and forecasting electricity prices and volatilities, both in the short and long term. Thus, there is a need of providing methodology that is able to deal with the most important features of electricity price series, which are well known for presenting not only structure in conditional mean but also time-varying conditional variances. In this work we propose a new model, which allows to extract conditionally heteroskedastic common factors from the vector of electricity prices. These common factors are jointly estimated as well as their relationship with the original vector of series, and the dynamics affecting both their conditional mean and variance. The estimation of the model is carried out under the state-space formulation. The new model proposed is applied to extract seasonal common dynamic factors as well as common volatility factors for electricity prices and the estimation results are used to forecast electricity prices and their volatilities in the Spanish zone of the Iberian Market. Several simplified/alternative models are also considered as benchmarks to illustrate that the proposed approach is superior to all of them in terms of explanatory and predictive power.

Nationwide impact and vehicle to grid application of electric vehicles mobility using an activity based model

This paper describes the impact of electric mobility on the transmission grid in Flanders region (Belgium), using a micro-simulation activity based models. These models are used to provide temporal and spatial estimation of energy and power demanded by electric vehicles (EVs) in different mobility zones. The increment in the load demand due to electric mobility is added to the background load demand in these mobility areas and the effects over the transmission substations are analyzed. From this information, the total storage capacity per zone is evaluated and some strategies for EV aggregator are proposed, allowing the aggregator to fulfill bids on the electricity markets.

Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

Unit Commitment and Electricity Prices Forecasting for Market Strategy Preparation in Interconnected Systems

In this paper we present a solution for building a better strategy to take part in external electricity markets. For an optimal strategy development, both the internal system costs as well as the future values of the series of electricity prices in external markets need to be known. But in practice, the real problems that must be faced are that both future electricity prices and costs are unknown. Thus, the first ones must be modeled and forecasted and the costs must be calculated. Our methodology for building an optimal strategy consists of three steps: The first step is modeling and forecasting market prices in external systems. The second step is the cost calculation on internal system taking into account the expected prices in the first step. The third step is based on the results of the previous steps, and consists of preparing the bids for external markets. The main goal is to reduce consumers' costs unlike many others that are oriented to increase GenCo's profits.

Competition in Illinois retail electric markets in 2003.

A report by the Illinois Commerce Commission required by Section 16-120(b) of the Electric Service Customer Choice and Rate Relief Law of 1997, which directs the Commission to monitor and analyze the state of competition in Illinois electricity markets.

Drága-e a megújuló? – A hazai megújuló villamosenergia-termelés hatása a villamos energia árára (Is the renewable energy expensive? – Impact of the Hungarian renewable based power generation on electricity price)

A tanulmány arra keresi a választ, hogy a megújuló alapú áramtermelők támogatása csökkentőleg hathat- e a villamos energia nagykereskedelmi és kiskereskedelmi árára. Ez utóbbi tartalmazza a megújulók támogatásának összegét is. Számos elméleti cikk rámutatott arra, hogy nemcsak a nagykereskedelmi árak, hanem a kiskereskedelmi villamosenergia-árak is csökkenhetnek a drágább, megújuló alapú áramtermelők támogatása révén. A tanulmány során egy villamosenergia-piacokat szimuláló modell segítségével modellezi a szerző, hogy a különböző mennyiségű szélerőművi és fotovoltaikus kapacitás támogatása hogyan hat a magyarországi nagykereskedelmi és kiskereskedelmi árakra. _____ Impact of the Hungarian renewable based power generation on electricity price The aim of this paper is to answer the question whether the support of renewable power generation could decrease the wholesale and retail electricity prices. The latter one includes the support of renewables. Several studies point out that not only the wholesale, but the retail electricity prices could decrease when supporting the more expensive, renewable power generation. A model, which simulates the electricity markets, is used in order to analyse the impact of different level of wind and photo voltaic power generator support fee on Hungarian wholesale and retail electricity prices.