Short, medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be easily applied to short-term load forecasting (STLF) models for electric power distribution applications. However, they are not typically used in medium and long term load forecasting (MLTLF) electric power models because of the difficulties associated with collecting and processing the necessary data. Virtual instrument (VI) techniques can be applied to electric power load forecasting but this is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the modelling and design of a VI for short, medium and long term load forecasting using ANNs. Three ANN models were built for STLF of electric power. These networks were trained using historical load data and also considering weather data which is known to have a significant affect of the use of electric power (such as wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity). In order to do this a V-shape temperature processing model is proposed. With regards MLTLF, a model was developed using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Results indicate that the forecasting model based on the RBFNN has a high accuracy and stability. Finally, a virtual load forecaster which integrates the VI and the RBFNN is presented.

State-of the art in electric vehicles charging infrastructure

The international introduction of electric vehicles (EVs) will see a change in private passenger car usage, operation and management. There are many stakeholders, but currently it appears that the automotive industry is focused on EV manufacture, governments and policy makers have highlighted the potential environmental and job creation opportunities while the electricity sector is preparing for an additional electrical load on the grid system. If the deployment of EVs is to be successful the introduction of international EV standards, universal charging hardware infrastructure, associated universal peripherals and user-friendly software on public and private property is necessary. The focus of this paper is to establish the state-of-the-art in EV charging infrastructure, which includes a review of existing and proposed international standards, best practice and guidelines under consideration or recommendation.

Electric vehicles and displaced gaseous emission

Electric vehicles (EV) do not emit tailpipe exhaust fumes in the same manner as internal combustion engine vehicles. Optimal benefits can only be achieved, if EVS are deployed effectively, so that the tailpipe emissions are not substituted by additional emissions in the electricity sector. This paper examines the potential contributions that Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles can make in reducing carbon dioxide. The paper presents the results of the generation expansion model for Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland built using the dynamic programming based long term generation expansion planning tool called the Wien Automatic System Planning IV tool. The model optimizes power dispatch using hourly electricity demand curves for each year up to 2020, while incorporating generator characteristics and certain operational requirements such as energy not served and loss of load probability while satisfying constraints on environmental emissions, fuel availability and generator operational and maintenance costs. In order to simulate the effect of PHEV, two distinct charging scenarios are applied based on a peak tariff and an off peak tariff. The importance and influence of the charging regime on the amount of energy used and gaseous emissions displaced is determined and discussed.

Intelligent demand response electric water heating to integrate wind power in Ireland

Dwindling fossil fuel resources and pressures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will result in a more diverse range of generation portfolios for future electricity systems. Irrespective of the portfolio mix the overarching requirement for all electricity suppliers and system operators is that supply instantaneously meets demand and that robust operating standards are maintained to ensure a consistent supply of high quality electricity to end-users. Therefore all electricity market participants will ultimately need to use a variety of tools to balance the power system. Thus the role of demand side management (DSM) with energy storage will be paramount to integrate future diverse generation portfolios. Electric water heating (EWH) has been studied previously, particularly at the domestic level to provide load control, peak shave and to benefit end-users financially with lower bills, particularly in vertically integrated monopolies. In this paper, a continuous Direct Load Control (DLC) EWH algorithm is applied in a liberalized market environment using actual historical electricity system and market data to examine the potential energy savings, cost reductions and electricity system operational improvements.

Integrating wind power using intelligent electric water heating

Dwindling fossil fuel resources and pressures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will result in a more diverse range of generation portfolios for future electricity systems. Irrespective of the portfolio mix the overarching requirement for all electricity suppliers and system operators is to instantaneously meet demand, to operate to standards and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore all electricity market participants will ultimately need to use a variety of tools to balance the power system. Thus the role of demand side management with energy storage will be paramount to integrate future diverse generation portfolios. Electric water heating has been studied previously, particularly at the domestic level to provide load control, peak shave and to bene?t end-users ?nancially with lower bills, particularly in vertically integrated monopolies. In this paper a number of continuous direct load control demand response based electric water heating algorithms are modelled to test the effectiveness of wholesale electricity market signals to study the system bene?ts. The results are compared and contrasted to determine which control algorithm showed the best potential for energy savings, system marginal price savings and wind integration.

Day-Ahead Optimal Charging/Discharging Scheduling for Electric Vehicles in Micro-Grids

A micro-grid is an autonomous system which can be operated and connected to an external system or isolated with the help of energy storage systems (ESSs). While the daily output of distributed generators (DGs) strongly depends on the temporal distribution of natural resources such as wind and solar, unregulated electric vehicle (EV) charging demand will deteriorate the imbalance between the daily load and generation curves. In this paper, a statistical model is presented to describe daily EV charging/discharging behaviour. An optimisation problem is proposed to obtain economic operation for the micro-grid based on this model. In day-ahead scheduling, with estimated information of power generation and load demand, optimal charging/discharging of EVs during 24 hours is obtained. A series of numerical optimization solutions in different scenarios is achieved by serial quadratic programming. The results show that optimal charging/discharging of EVs, a daily load curve can better track the generation curve and the network loss and required ESS capacity are both decreased. The paper also demonstrates cost benefits for EVs and operators.

Development of a Bridge Weigh-in-Motion Sensor: Performance comparison using fibre optic and electric resistance strain sensor systems

This paper addresses the problems of effective in situ measurement of the real-time strain for bridge weigh in motion in reinforced concrete bridge structures through the use of optical fiber sensor systems. By undertaking a series of tests, coupled with dynamic loading, the performance of fiber Bragg grating-based sensor systems with various amplification techniques were investigated. In recent years, structural health monitoring (SHM) systems have been developed to monitor bridge deterioration, to assess load levels and hence extend bridge life and safety. Conventional SHM systems, based on measuring strain, can be used to improve knowledge of the bridge's capacity to resist loads but generally give no information on the causes of any increase in stresses. Therefore, it is necessary to find accurate sensors capable of capturing peak strains under dynamic load and suitable methods for attaching these strain sensors to existing and new bridge structures. Additionally, it is important to ensure accurate strain transfer between concrete and steel, adhesives layer, and strain sensor. The results show the benefits in the use of optical fiber networks under these circumstances and their ability to deliver data when conventional sensors cannot capture accurate strains and/or peak strains.

Assessment of Domestic Load Suitable for Smart Consumer Load Participation

This study characterizes the domestic loads suitable to participate in the load participation scheme to make the power system more carbon and economically efficient by shifting the electricity demand profile towards periods when there is plentiful renewable in-feed.

A series of experiments have been performed on a common fridge-freezer, both completely empty and half full. The results presented are ambient temperature, temperature inside the fridge, temperature inside the drawer of the fridge, temperature inside the freezer, thermal time constants, power consumption and electric energy consumed.

The thermal time constants obtained clearly demonstrate the potential of such refrigeration load for Smart Customer Load Participation.

Non-convex dynamic economic/environmental dispatch with plug-in electric vehicle loads

Electric vehicles are a key prospect for future transportation. A large penetration of electric vehicles has the potential to reduce the global fossil fuel consumption and hence the greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. However, the additional stochastic loads imposed by plug-in electric vehicles will possibly introduce significant changes to existing load profiles. In his paper, electric vehicles loads are integrated into an 5-unit system using a non-convex dynamic dispatch model. The actual infrastructure characteristics including valve-point effects, load balance constrains and transmission loss have been included in the model. Multiple load profiles are comparatively studied and compared in terms of economic and environmental impacts in order o identify patterns to charge properly. The study as expected shows ha off-peak charging is the best scenario with respect to using less fuels and producing less emissions.

A self-learning teaching-learning based optimization for dynamic economic/environmental dispatch considering multiple plug-in electric vehicle loads

Economic and environmental load dispatch aims to determine the amount of electricity generated from power plants to meet load demand while minimizing fossil fuel costs and air pollution emissions subject to operational and licensing requirements. These two scheduling problems are commonly formulated with non-smooth cost functions respectively considering various effects and constraints, such as the valve point effect, power balance and ramp rate limits. The expected increase in plug-in electric vehicles is likely to see a significant impact on the power system due to high charging power consumption and significant uncertainty in charging times. In this paper, multiple electric vehicle charging profiles are comparatively integrated into a 24-hour load demand in an economic and environment dispatch model. Self-learning teaching-learning based optimization (TLBO) is employed to solve the non-convex non-linear dispatch problems. Numerical results on well-known benchmark functions, as well as test systems with different scales of generation units show the significance of the new scheduling method.

Electric vehicles and opportunities to displace tailgate emissions using Smart Charging controls

Under the European Union Renewable Energy Directive each Member State is mandated to ensure that 10% of transport energy (excluding aviation and marine transport) comes from renewable sources by 2020. The Irish Government intends to achieve this target with a number of policies including ensuring that 10% of all vehicles in the transport fleet are powered by electricity by 2020. This paper investigates the impact of the 10% electric vehicle target in Ireland in 2020 using a dynamic programming based long term generation expansion planning model. The model developed optimizes power dispatch using hourly electricity demand curves up to 2020, while incorporating generator characteristics and certain operational requirements such as energy not served and loss of load probability while satisfying constraints on environmental emissions, fuel availability and generator operational and maintenance costs. Two distinct scenarios are analysed based on a peak and off-peak charging regimes in order to simulate the effects of the electric vehicles charging in 2020. The importance and influence of the charging regimes on the amount of energy used and tailgate emissions displaced is then determined.

Synchronous Islanding Control in the Presence of Hydro-electric Generation

This paper introduces a novel load sharing algorithm to enable island synchronization. The system model used for development is based on an actual system for which historical measurement and fault data is available and is used to refine and test the algorithms performance and validity. The electrical system modelled is selected due to its high-level of hydroelectric generation and its history of islanding events. The process of developing the load sharing algorithm includes a number of steps. Firstly, the development of a simulation model to represent the case study accurately - this is validated by way of matching system behavior based on data from historical island events. Next, a generic island simulation is used to develop the load sharing algorithm. The algorithm is then tested against the validated simulation model representing the case study area selected. Finally, a laboratory setup is described which is used as validation method for the novel load sharing algorithm.

Evaluating the use of an urban consolidation centre and electric vehicles in central London

The paper focuses on the role that can be played by urban consolidation centres (UCCs) in reducing freight traffic and its environmental impacts in towns and cities. It is based on the before and after evaluation of a trial led by a major stationery and office supplies company in which urban freight deliveries in central London made from a depot in the suburbs using diesel vehicles were replaced with the use of an urban micro-consolidation centre located in the delivery area together with the use of electrically-assisted cargo tricycles and electric vans. The results show that the total distance travelled and the CO2eq emissions per parcel delivered fell by 20% and 54% respectively as a result of this delivery system. However, the evaluation has also indicated that the distance travelled per parcel rose substantially in the City of London delivery area as a result of the electric vehicles having far smaller load limits in both weight and volume compared with diesel vans. But, at the same time, the trial system was able to virtually eliminate CO2eq emissions per parcel delivered in the City of London. The trial proved successful from the company's perspective in transport, environmental and financial terms. The company therefore decided to continue the operation beyond the end of the trial with it being officially launched during 2010.

Intelligent management of end consumers loads including electric vehicles through a SCADA system

The large penetration of intermittent resources, such as solar and wind generation, involves the use of storage systems in order to improve power system operation. Electric Vehicles (EVs) with gridable capability (V2G) can operate as a means for storing energy. This paper proposes an algorithm to be included in a SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) system, which performs an intelligent management of three types of consumers: domestic, commercial and industrial, that includes the joint management of loads and the charge/discharge of EVs batteries. The proposed methodology has been implemented in a SCADA system developed by the authors of this paper – the SCADA House Intelligent Management (SHIM). Any event in the system, such as a Demand Response (DR) event, triggers the use of an optimization algorithm that performs the optimal energy resources scheduling (including loads and EVs), taking into account the priorities of each load defined by the installation users. A case study considering a specific consumer with several loads and EVs is presented in this paper.

The electric vehicle integration into the power system: an application to the portuguese case

Electric vehicles (EV) offer a great potential to address the integration of renewable energy sources (RES) in the power grid, and thus reduce the dependence on oil as well as the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The high share of wind energy in the Portuguese energy mix expected for 2020 can led to eventual curtailment, especially during the winter when high levels of hydro generation occur. In this paper a methodology based on a unit commitment and economic dispatch is implemented, and a hydro-thermal dispatch is performed in order to evaluate the impact of the EVs integration into the grid. Results show that the considered 10 % penetration of EVs in the Portuguese fleet would increase load in 3 % and would not integrate a significant amount of wind energy because curtailment is already reduced in the absence of EVs. According to the results, the EV is charged mostly with thermal generation and the associated emissions are much higher than if they were calculated based on the generation mix.