On Option Price Information Content and Extraction of Implied Probability Distributions

In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

Discrete distributions when modeling the disability severity score of motor victims

Many European states apply score systems to evaluate the disability severity of non-fatal motor victims under the law of third-party liability. The score is a non-negative integer with an upper bound at 100 that increases with severity. It may be automatically converted into financial terms and thus also reflects the compensation cost for disability. In this paper, discrete regression models are applied to analyze the factors that influence the disability severity score of victims. Standard and zero-altered regression models are compared from two perspectives: an interpretation of the data generating process and the level of statistical fit. The results have implications for traffic safety policy decisions aimed at reducing accident severity. An application using data from Spain is provided.

The effect of skewness and kurtosis on the Kenward-Roger approximation when group distributions differ

This study examined the independent effect of skewness and kurtosis on the robustness of the linear mixed model (LMM), with the Kenward-Roger (KR) procedure, when group distributions are different, sample sizes are small, and sphericity cannot be assumed. Methods: A Monte Carlo simulation study considering a split-plot design involving three groups and four repeated measures was performed. Results: The results showed that when group distributions are different, the effect of skewness on KR robustness is greater than that of kurtosis for the corresponding values. Furthermore, the pairings of skewness and kurtosis with group size were found to be relevant variables when applying this procedure. Conclusions: With sample sizes of 45 and 60, KR is a suitable option for analyzing data when the distributions are: (a) mesokurtic and not highly or extremely skewed, and (b) symmetric with different degrees of kurtosis. With total sample sizes of 30, it is adequate when group sizes are equal and the distributions are: (a) mesokurtic and slightly or moderately skewed, and sphericity is assumed; and (b) symmetric with a moderate or high/extreme violation of kurtosis. Alternative analyses should be considered when the distributions are highly or extremely skewed and samples sizes are small.

On the physical realizability of highly focused electromagnetic field distributions

A method to evaluate the physical realizability of an arbitrary three-dimensional vectorial field distribution in the focal area is proposed. A parameter that measures the similarity between the designed (target) field and the physically achievable beam is provided. This analysis is carried out within the framework of the closest electromagnetic field to a given vectorial function, and the procedure is applied to two illustrative cases.

Regional heterogeneity in wage distributions. Evidence from Spain.

Regional differences in real wages have been shown to be both large and persistent in the U.S. and the U.K., as well as in the economies of other countries. Empirical evidence suggests that wage differentials adjusted for the cost of living cannot only be explained by the unequal spatial distribution of characteristics determining earnings. Rather, average wage gap decomposition reveals the important contribution made by regional heterogeneity in the price assigned to these characteristics. This paper proposes a method for assessing regional disparities in the entire wage distribution and for decomposing the effect of differences across regions in the endowments and prices of the characteristics. The hypothesis forwarded is that the results from previous studies obtained by comparing average regional wages may be partial and nonrobust. Empirical evidence from a matched employer-employee dataset for Spain confirms marked differences in wage distributions between regions, which do not result from worker and firm characteristics but from the increasing role of regional differences in the return to human capital.

Labour segregation and immigrant and native-born wage distributions in Spain: an analysis using matched employer-employee data

This article carries out an empirical examination of the origin of the differences between immigrant and native-born wage structures in the Spanish labour market. Especial attention is given in the analysis to the role played by occupational and workplace segregation of immigrants. Legal immigrants from developing countries exhibit lower mean wages and a more compressed wage structure than native-born workers. By contrast, immigrants from developed countries display higher mean wages and a more dispersed wage structure. The main empirical finding is that the disparities in the wage distributions for the native-born and both groups of immigrants are largely explained by their different observed characteristics, with a particularly important influence in this context of workplace and, particularly, occupational segregation.

Fronts with continuous waiting-time distributions: Theory and application to virus infections

We generalize to arbitrary waiting-time distributions some results which were previously derived for discrete distributions. We show that for any two waiting-time distributions with the same mean delay time, that with higher dispersion will lead to a faster front. Experimental data on the speed of virus infections in a plaque are correctly explained by the theoretical predictions using a Gaussian delay-time distribution, which is more realistic for this system than the Dirac delta distribution considered previously [J. Fort and V. Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett.89, 178101 (2002)]

Speed of travelling fronts: Two-dimensional and ballistic dispersal probability distributions

The speed of traveling fronts for a two-dimensional model of a delayed reactiondispersal process is derived analytically and from simulations of molecular dynamics. We show that the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) versions of a given kernel do not yield always the same speed. It is also shown that the speeds of time-delayed fronts may be higher than those predicted by the corresponding non-delayed models. This result is shown for systems with peaked dispersal kernels which lead to ballistic transport

Aerosol particle size distributions at a traffic exposed site and an urban background location in Oporto, Portugal

Aerosol size distributions from 6 to 700 nm were measured simultaneously at an urban background site and a roadside station in Oporto. The particle number concentration was higher at the traffic exposed site, where up to 90% of the size spectrum was dominated by the nucleation mode. Larger aerosol mode diameters were observed in the urban background site possibly due to the coagulation processes or uptake of gases during transport. Factor analysis has shown that road traffic and the neighbour stationary sources localised upwind affect the urban area thought intra-regional pollutant transport.

Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Static pressure and wall shear stress distributions in air flow in a seven wire-wrapped rod bundle

An experimental investigation is performed in a turbulent flow in a seven wire-wrapped rod bundle, mounted in an open air facility. Static pressure distributions are measured on central and peripheral rods. By using a Preston tube, the wall shear stress profiles are experimentally obtained along the perimeter of the rods. The geometric parameters of the test section are P/D=1.20 and H/D=15. The measuring section is located at L/D=40 from the air inlet. It is observed that the dimensionless static pressure and wall shear stress profiles are nearly independent of the Reynolds number and strongly dependent of the wire-spacer position, with abrupt variations of the parameters in the neighborhood of the wires.

Diameter and height distributions in a gallery forest tree community and some of its main species in central Brazil over a six-year period (1985-1991)

(Diameter and height distributions in a gallery forest tree community and some of its main species in central Brazil over a six-year period (1985-1991)). The diameter and height structure were studied over six years in approximately 64 ha of the Gama gallery forest in Brasília, DF. Trees from 10 cm dbh were measured every three years from 1985 in 151 (10 x 20 m) permanent plots. Natural regeneration (individuals under 10 cm dbh) was measured in subplots within the 200 m² plots. Most individuals and species were under 45 cm diameter and 20 m high while the maximum diameter for individual species ranged from 30 to 95 cm. The diameter structure was typical of a mixed tropical forest with the number of individuals decreasing with increasing size classes and showing little change over the six years. The most abundant species occupy different positions in the canopy and have different size structures.