Modified particle swarm optimization for day-ahead distributed energy resources scheduling including vehicle-to-grid

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

Day-ahead Resource Scheduling Including Demand Response for Electric Vehicles

The energy resource scheduling is becoming increasingly important, as the use of distributed resources is intensified and massive gridable vehicle (V2G) use is envisaged. This paper presents a methodology for day-ahead energy resource scheduling for smart grids considering the intensive use of distributed generation and V2G. The main focus is the comparison of different EV management approaches in the day-ahead energy resources management, namely uncontrolled charging, smart charging, V2G and Demand Response (DR) programs i n the V2G approach. Three different DR programs are designed and tested (trip reduce, shifting reduce and reduce+shifting). Othe r important contribution of the paper is the comparison between deterministic and computational intelligence techniques to reduce the execution time. The proposed scheduling is solved with a modified particle swarm optimization. Mixed integer non-linear programming is also used for comparison purposes. Full ac power flow calculation is included to allow taking into account the network constraints. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and 2000 V2G resources is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Optimal generation scheduling of wind-CSP systems in day-ahead electricity markets

This paper presents a coordination approach to maximize the total profit of wind power systems coordinated with concentrated solar power systems, having molten-salt thermal energy storage. Both systems are effectively handled by mixed-integer linear programming in the approach, allowing enhancement on the operational during non-insolation periods. Transmission grid constraints and technical operating constraints on both systems are modeled to enable a true management support for the integration of renewable energy sources in day-ahead electricity markets. A representative case study based on real systems is considered to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. © IFIP International Federation for Information Processing 2015.

Da tradução para o palco : o caso de long day's journey in to night de Eugene O'Neill

Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Tradução (Área de Especialização em Inglês)

An exanthematic disease epidemic associated with coxsackievirus B3 infection in a day care center

An epidemic of exanthematic illness in a day care center is described. Ten children aged 7 to 13 months were affected by the illness. The exanthem was characterized by nonconfluent macular or maculopapular lesions that appeared on the face, body and limbs. Fifty percent of the infected children had fever of up to 39ºC at the beginning of the disease. Coxsackievirus B3 (CB3) was isolated from the stool of one ill child. Paired serum samples were obtained from eight ill children and six of them presented seroconversion to CB3. Antibodies to CB3 were detected at titers higher than 16 in a single serum sample collected from the other two patients. Neutralizing antibodies to CB3 were detected in 71.0% of the contact children.

Risk factors and prevalence of antibodies against hepatitis A virus (HAV) in children from day-care centers, in Goiania, Brazil

A seroepidemiologic survey about hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection was carried out in a group comprising 310 children, ranging in age from 3 months to 9 years, from day-care centers, in Goiania, a middle sized city in the central region of Brazil. The biomarkers employed in the investigation of previous infection include total IgG and IgM anti-HAV antibodies, and for the detection of more recent infection, IgM anti-HAV antibodies were analyzed. The study was performed in 1991 and 1992. According to the results, 69.7% of the children presented total IgG/IgM anti-HAV antibodies, with 60% of the group in the age range of 1 to 3 years. Among 10 day-care centers analyzed, the prevalence of the biomarker IgM anti-HAV was 3.2%, with an uniform distribution of the cases in the group of children ranging in age from 1 to 4 years. Multi-variate analysis was performed to investigate the sociodemographic factors that could influence the results. It was verified that the risk for the infection increased with the length of the attendance in the day-care centers, i.e., the risk for children with attendance of one year or more was 4.7 times higher, when compared with children with one month attendance (CI 95% 2.3-9.9). According to the results, hepatitis A is an endemic infection in day-care centers in the study area. The length of attendance in the day-care settings was demonstrated to be a risk factor for the HAV infection. Such findings suggest that if hepatits A vaccination becomes available as a routine policy in our region, the target group should be children under one year. Moreover, those children should receive the vaccine before they start to attend the day-care centers.

Occurence of Giardia lamblia in children of municipal day-care centers from Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil

Considering that the number of day-care centers for pre-school-age children has expanded rapidly in developing countries, and that these institutions presenting conditions that facilitate the transmission of many enteric agents, a parasitological survey was carried out in three municipal day-cares from Botucatu: two in the urban area (one in downtown area and the other one in the city periphery area) and the third in the rural area. Three separate stool specimens were collected from 147 children ranging from 0 to 72 months old and 20 staff members. Each stool specimen was processed by Lutz and zinc sulfate flotation methods. The frequency of giardiasis observed among children of downtown, periphery and rural day-cares was 69.6%, 52.7% and 69.6%, respectively. Only one employee was positive for G. lamblia. The examination of three stool specimens increased the positivity for G. lamblia: from the ninety three final positive examinations, 24 (25.5%) and 8 (8.5%) were positives only after examination of the second and third samples, respectively. Others intestinal organisms like Ascaris lumbricoides (20.4%), Trichuris trichiura (19.0%). Hymenolepis nana (8.8%), Entamoeba coli (22.4%) and Blastocystis hominis (32.0%) were frequently found in the children. There was no significant association among localization of the day-cares, sex of the children and the levels of G. lamblia infection. According to the age, G. lamblia was found mainly in children between 12 to 47 months old.

A longitudinal study of enterobiasis in three day care centers of Havana City

Pinworm infection was prospectively studied during one year in 469 children attending three day care centers. Each child was examined at six months intervals using up to three perianal swabs with adhesive tape. Those found infected were treated with mebendazole. At the beginning of the study we found a prevalence of 28% that dropped to 13% and 12% in the following study periods. The reinfection rate was twice the incidence rate in both study periods. We also found a small percentage (10%) of the children reinfected in most or all study periods. There was a high correlation between reinfection and perianal itching. Our results add further knowledge to the epidemiology of intestinal parasites in day care centers.

Cytomegalovirus infection in a day-care center in the municipality of São Paulo

The prevalence of antibodies against cytomegalovirus (CMV) and the incidence of CMV infection were tested in 98 children aged 5 to 36 months who attended the day-care center of a University hospital in São Paulo. At the beginning of the study the overall prevalence of anti-CMV IgG antibodies was 44% (43/98). Saliva and/or urine samples were obtained from 38 of the 43 children that were seropositive at the beginning of the study for isolation of the virus, and 52.6% of these children were found to excrete CMV in one of the two materials. Among the 37 children that were initially seronegative from whom it was possible to obtain a new blood sample 6 to 12 months later, 22 (59.5%) presented seroconversion. The rate of viral excretion through urine or saliva from the children that seroconverted was 50%. These results indicate that CMV infection is frequent and occurs early among the children who attend this day-care center. However, controlled studies using molecular epidemiology techniques are needed to define more precisely the role of day-care centers in CMV dissemination.

Multi-objective Parallel Particle Swarm Optimization for Day-ahead Vehicle-To-Grid Scheduling

This paper presents a methodology for multi-objective day-ahead energy resource scheduling for smart grids considering intensive use of distributed generation and Vehicle- To-Grid (V2G). The main focus is the application of weighted Pareto to a multi-objective parallel particle swarm approach aiming to solve the dual-objective V2G scheduling: minimizing total operation costs and maximizing V2G income. A realistic mathematical formulation, considering the network constraints and V2G charging and discharging efficiencies is presented and parallel computing is applied to the Pareto weights. AC power flow calculation is included in the metaheuristics approach to allow taking into account the network constraints. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and 1800 V2G resources is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Stochastic Framework for Strategic Decision-making of Load-serving Entities for Day-ahead Market

The deregulation of electricity markets has diversified the range of financial transaction modes between independent system operator (ISO), generation companies (GENCO) and load-serving entities (LSE) as the main interacting players of a day-ahead market (DAM). LSEs sell electricity to end-users and retail customers. The LSE that owns distributed generation (DG) or energy storage units can supply part of its serving loads when the nodal price of electricity rises. This opportunity stimulates them to have storage or generation facilities at the buses with higher locational marginal prices (LMP). The short-term advantage of this model is reducing the risk of financial losses for LSEs in DAMs and its long-term benefit for the LSEs and the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand. This model also enables the LSEs to manage the financial risks with a stochastic programming framework.

Decision support tool for Virtual Power Players: Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization applied to Day-ahead Vehicle-To-Grid Scheduling

This paper presents a decision support tool methodology to help virtual power players (VPPs) in the Smart Grid (SGs) context to solve the day-ahead energy resource scheduling considering the intensive use of Distributed Generation (DG) and Vehicle-To-Grid (V2G). The main focus is the application of a new hybrid method combing a particle swarm approach and a deterministic technique based on mixedinteger linear programming (MILP) to solve the day-ahead scheduling minimizing total operation costs from the aggregator point of view. A realistic mathematical formulation, considering the electric network constraints and V2G charging and discharging efficiencies is presented. Full AC power flow calculation is included in the hybrid method to allow taking into account the network constraints. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and 1800 V2G resources is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Incentive-based demand response programs designed by asset-light retailers for day-ahead market

Following the deregulation experience of retail electricity markets in most countries, the majority of the new entrants of the liberalized retail market were pure REP (retail electricity providers). These entities were subject to financial risks because of the unexpected price variations, price spikes, volatile loads and the potential for market power exertion by GENCO (generation companies). A REP can manage the market risks by employing the DR (demand response) programs and using its' generation and storage assets at the distribution network to serve the customers. The proposed model suggests how a REP with light physical assets, such as DG (distributed generation) units and ESS (energy storage systems), can survive in a competitive retail market. The paper discusses the effective risk management strategies for the REPs to deal with the uncertainties of the DAM (day-ahead market) and how to hedge the financial losses in the market. A two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated. It aims to establish the financial incentive-based DR programs and the optimal dispatch of the DG units and ESSs. The uncertainty of the forecasted day-ahead load demand and electricity price is also taken into account with a scenario-based approach. The principal advantage of this model for REPs is reducing the risk of financial losses in DAMs, and the main benefit for the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand and reducing the peak demand.

Cytomegalovirus infection in children with Down syndrome in a day-care center in Brazil

This study evaluates the transmission of CMV infection in 120 children aged 1 to 15 years with Down syndrome who attended a day-care center for handicapped children in São Paulo, Brazil. A blood sample was obtained from each children at the beginning of the study for detection of IgG and IgM cytomegalovirus (CMV) antibodies by an immunofluorescence assay. Samples of saliva and urine were obtained every 3 months from the children with CMV antibodies to detect shedding of the virus by culture in human foreskin fibroblasts, by detection of pp65 CMV-antigen and by a nested PCR assay. The prevalence of anti CMV-IgG antibodies was 76.6% (92/120), and IgM anti-CMV antibodies were detected in 13% (12/92) of the seropositive children. During the first viral evaluation, CMV was detected in the urine and/or saliva in 39/90 (43.3%) of the seropositive children. In the second and third evaluations, CMV was detected in 41/89 (46%) and in 35/89 (39.3%) children, respectively. Detection of CMV was shown both in urine and saliva in 28/39 (71.8%), 19/41(46.3%) and 20/35 (57.1%) of the children excreting the virus, respectively. Additionally, in 33/49 (67.4%) of the excreters CMV could be demonstrated in urine or saliva in at least two out of the three virological evaluations carried out sequentially in a six month period. Of the 28 initially seronegative children, 26 were re-examined for anti-CMV IgG antibodies about 18 months after the negative sample; seroconversion was found in 10/26 (38.5%). Taking all 536 samples of urine or saliva examined by virus culture and pp65 antigen detection during the study into account, 159 (29.6%) were positive by virus culture and 59 (11%) gave a positive result with the pp65 assay. These data demonstrate the high prevalence of CMV shedding and the high risk of CMV infection in children with Down syndrome attending a day-care center for mentally handicapped patients. The virus culture was more sensitive than the pp65 CMV antigen assay for CMV detection in both urine and saliva samples.