Non-Maxwellian electron distributions in time-dependent simulations of low-Z materials illuminated by a high-intensity X-ray laser

The interaction of high intensity X-ray lasers with matter is modeled. A collisional-radiative timedependent module is implemented to study radiation transport in matter from ultrashort and ultraintense X-ray bursts. Inverse bremsstrahlung absorption by free electrons, electron conduction or hydrodynamic effects are not considered. The collisional-radiative system is coupled with the electron distribution evolution treated with a Fokker-Planck approach with additional inelastic terms. The model includes spontaneous emission, resonant photoabsorption, collisional excitation and de-excitation, radiative recombination, photoionization, collisional ionization, three-body recombination, autoionization and dielectronic capture. It is found that for high densities, but still below solid, collisions play an important role and thermalization times are not short enough to ensure a thermal electron distribution. At these densities Maxwellian and non-Maxwellian electron distribution models yield substantial differences in collisional rates, modifying the atomic population dynamics.

Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain

Background: In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health. Objectives: We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007. Methods: To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16x16 km2. In a second step, we used the concentration-response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005-2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures. Results: Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1mg/m3 by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%. Conclusions: Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline infine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.

Uso de modelagem de nicho fundamental na avaliação do padrão de distribuição geográfica de espécies vegetais

Atualmente vêm sendo desenvolvidas e utilizadas várias técnicas de modelagem de distribuição geográfica de espécies com os mais variados objetivos. Algumas dessas técnicas envolvem modelagem baseada em análise ambiental, nas quais os algoritmos procuram por condições ambientais semelhantes àquelas onde as espécies foram encontradas, resultando em áreas potenciais onde as condições ambientais seriam propícias ao desenvolvimento dessas espécies. O presente estudo trata do uso da modelagem preditiva de distribuição geográfica, através da utilização de algoritmo genético e algoritmo de distância, de espécies como ferramenta para a conservação de espécies vegetais, em três situações distintas: modelagem da distribuição do bioma cerrado no estado de São Paulo; previsão da ocorrência de espécies arbóreas visando à restauração da cobertura vegetal na bacia do Médio Paranapanema e modelagem da distribuição de espécies ameaçadas de extinção (Byrsonima subterranea). A metodologia empregada e os resultados obtidos foram considerados satisfatórios para a geração de modelos de distribuição geográfica de espécies vegetais, baseados em dados abióticos, para as regiões de estudo. A eficácia do modelo em predizer a ocorrência de espécies do cerrado é maior se forem utilizados apenas pontos de amostragem com fisionomias de cerrado, excluindo-se áreas de transição. Para minimizar problemas decorrentes da falta de convergência do algoritmo utilizado GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production), foram gerados 100 modelos para cada espécie modelada. O uso de modelagem pode auxiliar no entendimento dos padrões de distribuição de um bioma ou ecossistema em uma análise regional e local.

Adequabilidade ambiental dos biomas brasileiros à ocorrência do lobo-guará (Chrysocyon brachyurus) e efeitos da composição da paisagem em sua ecologia espacial, atividade e movimentação

O lobo-guará é uma espécie de ampla distribuição na América do Sul, tendo no Brasil sua maior área de ocorrência. No entanto, as modificações das áreas naturais principalmente destinadas à agropecuária tornam a espécie vulnerável à extinção. A investigação objetivou conhecer em larga escala a área de distribuição potencial gerada por atributos ambientais favoráveis e áreas adequadas à sua ocorrência nos biomas brasileiros e investigar como a espécie responde à estrutura da paisagem, avaliando os efeitos de ambientes modificados pelo homem na sua ecologia espacial, nos padrões de atividade e na movimentação. Modelos de distribuição de espécie foram gerados pelo Maxent, utilizando uma base de pontos de localização de presença a partir de 2000 para o Cerrado (Ce), Pantanal (Pa), Mata Atlântica (MA) e Pampas (Pp) e um conjunto de onze variáveis ambientais não correlacionadas (topográficas, climáticas e paisagísticas). Para análises de ecologia espacial, das atividades e de movimentação, utilizou-se localizações de telemetria (GPS) de animais habitantes de áreas protegidas (AP), e indivíduos em paisagens modificados (AM). Análises de áreas de vida (AV) foram realizadas utilizando o estimador AKDE e associadas com classificação da paisagem local. Os modelos de distribuição do lobo-guará apresentaram uma área de distribuição potencial de 78% do total dos biomas. Apesar de possuírem grandes proporções de áreas adequadas (Ce, 90%; Pa, 93%; MA, 65% e Pp, 6%), somente um pequeno percentual (4,4% do Ce e 4,7% da MA) possui adequabilidade ambiental acima de 50%. Dos atributos que favorecem sua presença, a altitude (para todos os biomas), a precipitação (Ce e Pa), diferenças de temperatura e uso e cobertura do solo (Ma e Pp) foram os mais importantes. Em nível local, animais apresentaram média de AV de 90Km2 em AP e 41Km2 em AM, uma diferença significativa (p<0,01) com áreas diretamente proporcionais ao percentual de áreas naturais na paisagem. Ainda, apesar dos padrões regulares de atividade não mostrarem grandes mudanças, o período de repouso foi significativamente maior (p<0,01) entre os animais AM (46% do dia) que em animais AP (25% do dia). Lobos-guarás de AP e AM não apresentaram grandes diferenças no deslocamento diário com média geral de 14km caminhados por dia, com comprimentos de passos de 1Km. Diferenças no comprimento de passo foram relacionadas à composição da diversidade de contato de classes da paisagem com a proporção de ambientes naturais no passo (quanto maior as variáveis, maior o passo). Passos menores refletem menor persistência de movimento interferindo no deslocamento diário. Com os resultados desse estudo identificou-se a MA e Pa muito importantes, mas o Ce como bioma mais adequado à espécie. Foram encontrados indícios de que a estrutura de suas AV, o uso da paisagem, as atividades e movimentação são afetados pela paisagem modificada. Isso pode comprometer a viabilidade populacional, interferindo na presença em uma área e refletindo no seu potencial de distribuição. As estratégias de manejo de uso do solo, e a recuperação e conexão de áreas adequadas são urgentes e necessárias para que o lobo-guará permaneça presente e funcional nas paisagens dos biomas brasileiros.

Macroecología y ecoinformática: sesgos, errores y predicciones en el modelado de distribuciones

Hoy en día es común estudiar los patrones globales de biodiversidad a partir de las predicciones generadas por diferentes modelos de nicho ecológico. Habitualmente, estos modelos se calibran con datos procedentes de bases de datos de libre acceso (e.g. GBIF). Sin embargo, a pesar de la facilidad de descarga y de la accesibilidad de los datos, la información almacenada sobre las localidades donde están presentes las especies suele tener sesgos y errores. Estos problemas en los datos de calibración pueden modificar drásticamente las predicciones de los modelos y con ello pueden enmascarar los patrones macroecológicos reales. El objetivo de este trabajo es investigar qué métodos producen resultados más precisos cuando los datos de calibración incluyen sesgos y cuáles producen mejores resultados cuando los datos de calibración tienen, además de sesgos, errores. Para ello creado una especie virtual, hemos proyectado su distribución en la península ibérica, hemos muestreado su distribución de manera sesgada y hemos calibrado dos tipos de modelos de distribución (Bioclim y Maxent) con muestras de distintos tamaños. Nuestros resultados indican que cuando los datos sólo están sesgados, los resultados de Bioclim son mejores que los de Maxent. Sin embargo, Bioclim es extremadamente sensible a la presencia de errores en los datos de calibración. En estas situaciones, el comportamiento de Maxent es mucho más robusto y las predicciones que proporciona son más ajustadas.

Tradeoffs of different types of species occurrence data for use in systematic conservation planning

Data on the occurrence of species are widely used to inform the design of reserve networks. These data contain commission errors (when a species is mistakenly thought to be present) and omission errors (when a species is mistakenly thought to be absent), and the rates of the two types of error are inversely related. Point locality data can minimize commission errors, but those obtained from museum collections are generally sparse, suffer from substantial spatial bias and contain large omission errors. Geographic ranges generate large commission errors because they assume homogenous species distributions. Predicted distribution data make explicit inferences on species occurrence and their commission and omission errors depend on model structure, on the omission of variables that determine species distribution and on data resolution. Omission errors lead to identifying networks of areas for conservation action that are smaller than required and centred on known species occurrences, thus affecting the comprehensiveness, representativeness and efficiency of selected areas. Commission errors lead to selecting areas not relevant to conservation, thus affecting the representativeness and adequacy of reserve networks. Conservation plans should include an estimation of commission and omission errors in underlying species data and explicitly use this information to influence conservation planning outcomes.

Landscape genetics of Phaedranassa herb. (Amaryllidaceae) in Ecuador

Speciation can be understood as a continuum occurring at different levels, from population to species. The recent molecular revolution in population genetics has opened a pathway towards understanding species evolution. At the same time, speciation patterns can be better explained by incorporating a geographic context, through the use of geographic information systems (GIS). Phaedranassa (Amaryllidaceae) is a genus restricted to one of the world’s most biodiverse hotspots, the Northern Andes. I studied seven Phaedranassa species from Ecuador. Six of these species are endemic to the country. The topographic complexity of the Andes, which creates local microhabitats ranging from moist slopes to dry valleys, might explain the patterns of Phaedranassa species differentiation. With a Bayesian individual assignment approach, I assessed the genetic structure of the genus throughout Ecuador using twelve microsatellite loci. I also used bioclimatic variables and species geographic coordinates under a Maximum Entropy algorithm to generate distribution models of the species. My results show that Phaedranassa species are genetically well-differentiated. Furthermore, with the exception of two species, all Phaedranassa showed non-overlapping distributions. Phaedranassa viridiflora and P. glauciflora were the only species in which the model predicted a broad species distribution, but genetic evidence indicates that these findings are likely an artifact of species delimitation issues. Both genetic differentiation and nonoverlapping geographic distribution suggest that allopatric divergence could be the general model of genetic differentiation. Evidence of sympatric speciation was found in two geographically and genetically distinct groups of P. viridiflora. Additionally, I report the first register of natural hybridization for the genus. The findings of this research show that the genetic differentiation of species in an intricate landscape as the Andes does not necessarily show a unique trend. Although allopatric speciation is the most common form of speciation, I found evidence of sympatric speciation and hybridization. These results show that the processes of speciation in the Andes have followed several pathways. The mixture of these processes contributes to the high biodiversity of the region.

Mapped cetacean habitat suitability and richness in the Azores, links to ArcGIS files

Marine spatial planning and ecological research call for high-resolution species distribution data. However, those data are still not available for most marine large vertebrates. The dynamic nature of oceanographic processes and the wide-ranging behavior of many marine vertebrates create further difficulties, as distribution data must incorporate both the spatial and temporal dimensions. Cetaceans play an essential role in structuring and maintaining marine ecosystems and face increasing threats from human activities. The Azores holds a high diversity of cetaceans but the information about spatial and temporal patterns of distribution for this marine megafauna group in the region is still very limited. To tackle this issue, we created monthly predictive cetacean distribution maps for spring and summer months, using data collected by the Azores Fisheries Observer Programme between 2004 and 2009. We then combined the individual predictive maps to obtain species richness maps for the same period. Our results reflect a great heterogeneity in distribution among species and within species among different months. This heterogeneity reflects a contrasting influence of oceanographic processes on the distribution of cetacean species. However, some persistent areas of increased species richness could also be identified from our results. We argue that policies aimed at effectively protecting cetaceans and their habitats must include the principle of dynamic ocean management coupled with other area-based management such as marine spatial planning.

Adaptive management, international co-operation and planning for marine conservation hotspots in a changing climate

Acknowledgements This work received funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland) and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (Grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.

Adaptive management, international co-operation and planning for marine conservation hotspots in a changing climate

Acknowledgements This work received funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland) and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (Grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.

Ecophysiology of Adonis distorta, a high-mountain species endemic of the Central Apennines

Morphological, anatomical and physiological plant and leaf traits of A. distorta, an endemic species of the Central Apennines on the Majella Massif, growing at 2,675 m a.s.l, were analyzed. The length of the phenological cycle starts immediately after the snowmelt at the end of May, lasting 128 ± 10 days. The low A. distorta height  (Hmax= 64 ± 4 mm) and total leaf area (TLA= 38 ± 9 cm2) associated to a high leaf mass area (LMA =11.8±0.6 mg cm−2) and a relatively high leaf tissue density (LTD = 124.6±14.3 mg cm−3) seem to be adaptive traits to the stress factors of the environment where it grows. From a physiological point of view, the high A. distorta photosynthetic rates (PN =19.6 ± 2.3 µmol m−2 s−1) and total chlorophyll content (Chla+b = 0.88 ± 0.13 mg g−1) in July are justified by the favorable temperature. PN decreases by 87% in September at the beginning of plant senescence. Photosynthesis and leaf respiration (RD) variations allow A. distorta to maintain a positive carbon balance during the growing season becoming indicative of the efficiency of plant carbon use. The results could be an important tool for conservation programmes of the A. distorta wild populations.

End-to-end modelling for an ecosystem approach to fisheries in the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem

This work represents an original contribution to the methodology for ecosystem models' development as well as the rst attempt of an end-to-end (E2E) model of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE). The main purpose of the developed model is to build a tool for ecosystem-based management and decision making, reason why the credibility of the model is essential, and this can be assessed through confrontation to data. Additionally, the NHCE exhibits a high climatic and oceanographic variability at several scales, the major source of interannual variability being the interruption of the upwelling seasonality by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which has direct e ects on larval survival and sh recruitment success. Fishing activity can also be highly variable, depending on the abundance and accessibility of the main shery resources. This context brings the two main methodological questions addressed in this thesis, through the development of an end-to-end model coupling the high trophic level model OSMOSE to the hydrodynamics and biogeochemical model ROMS-PISCES: i) how to calibrate ecosystem models using time series data and ii) how to incorporate the impact of the interannual variability of the environment and shing. First, this thesis highlights some issues related to the confrontation of complex ecosystem models to data and proposes a methodology for a sequential multi-phases calibration of ecosystem models. We propose two criteria to classify the parameters of a model: the model dependency and the time variability of the parameters. Then, these criteria along with the availability of approximate initial estimates are used as decision rules to determine which parameters need to be estimated, and their precedence order in the sequential calibration process. Additionally, a new Evolutionary Algorithm designed for the calibration of stochastic models (e.g Individual Based Model) and optimized for maximum likelihood estimation has been developed and applied to the calibration of the OSMOSE model to time series data. The environmental variability is explicit in the model: the ROMS-PISCES model forces the OSMOSE model and drives potential bottom-up e ects up the foodweb through plankton and sh trophic interactions, as well as through changes in the spatial distribution of sh. The latter e ect was taken into account using presence/ absence species distribution models which are traditionally assessed through a confusion matrix and the statistical metrics associated to it. However, when considering the prediction of the habitat against time, the variability in the spatial distribution of the habitat can be summarized and validated using the emerging patterns from the shape of the spatial distributions. We modeled the potential habitat of the main species of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem using several sources of information ( sheries, scienti c surveys and satellite monitoring of vessels) jointly with environmental data from remote sensing and in situ observations, from 1992 to 2008. The potential habitat was predicted over the study period with monthly resolution, and the model was validated using quantitative and qualitative information of the system using a pattern oriented approach. The nal ROMS-PISCES-OSMOSE E2E ecosystem model for the NHCE was calibrated using our evolutionary algorithm and a likelihood approach to t monthly time series data of landings, abundance indices and catch at length distributions from 1992 to 2008. To conclude, some potential applications of the model for shery management are presented and their limitations and perspectives discussed.

The invasion risk in the Pacific Northwest of two closely related grass species in the Genus Cortaderia

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Different Transitions towards Learning at University: Exploring the Heterogeneity of Motivational Processes

Transitions processes in higher education are characterized by new learning situations which pose challenges to most students. This chapter explores the heterogeneity of reactions to these challenges from a perspective of regulation processes. The Integrated Model of Learning and Action is used to identity different patterns of motivational regulation amongst students at university by using mixed distribution models. Six subpopulations of motivational regulation could be identified: students with self-determined, pragmatic, strategic, negative, anxious and insecure learning motivation. Findings about these patterns can be used to design didactic measures that will support students’ learning processes.

Evolução da distribuição da lontra (lutra lutra L.) na península ibérica: modelos a diferentes escalas e a sua projeção no espaço e no tempo

A Lontra Euroasiática foi alvo de quatro prospeções na Península Ibérica (1990-2008). Em 2003, foi publicado um modelo de distribuição da lontra, com base nos dados de presença/ausência das prospeções publicadas em 1998. Dadas as suas características, este tipo de modelos pode tornar-se um elemento chave nas estratégias de recuperação da lontra como também, de outras espécies, se comprovada a sua fiabilidade e capacidade de antecipar tendências na distribuição das mesmas. Assim, esta dissertação confrontou as previsões do modelo com os dados de distribuição de 2008, a fim de identificar potências áreas de discordância. Os resultados revelam que, o modelo de distribuição de lontra proposto, apesar de ter por base dados de 1998 e de não considerar explicitamente processos biológicos, conseguiu captar o essencial da relação espécie-ambiente, resultando num bom desempenho preditivo para a distribuição da mesma em Espanha, uma década depois da sua construção; Evolution of otter (Lutra lutra L.) distribution in the Iberian Peninsula: Models at different scales and their projection through space and time Abstract: The Eurasian otter was already surveyed four times in the Iberian Peninsula (1990-2008). In 2003, a distribution model for the otter based on presence/absence data from the survey published in 1998, was published. This type of models has advantages that can make it in a key element for otter conservation strategies and also, for other species, but only, if their reliability and capability to predict species distribution tendencies are validated. The present thesis compares the model predictions with 2008 data, in order to find potential mismatch areas. Results suggest that, although the distribution model for the otter was based on data from 1998 and, doesn’t include explicitly biological mechanisms, it managed to correctly identify the essence of the species-environment relationship, what was translated in a good predictive performance for its actual distribution in Spain, after a decade of its construction.