Evolution of reputation in networks: A mean field game approach

This work models the competitive behaviour of individuals who maximize their own utility managing their network of connections with other individuals. Utility is taken as a synonym of reputation in this model. Each agent has to decide between two variables: the quality of connections and the number of connections. Hence, the reputation of an individual is a function of the number and the quality of connections within the network. On the other hand, individuals incur in a cost when they improve their network of contacts. The initial value of the quality and number of connections of each individual is distributed according to an initial (given) distribution. The competition occurs over continuous time and among a continuum of agents. A mean field game approach is adopted to solve the model, leading to an optimal trajectory for the number and quality of connections for each individual.

O Sinclinal de ferro de Torre de Moncorvo: um recurso mineral como catalisador de um Tempolntermitente

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Arquitectura

On the length of bank-firm relationships: an empirical application to a major French bank

NIPE - WP 01/ 2016

Are one factor logarithmic volatility models useful to fit the features of financial data? An application to microsoft data.

This paper provides empirical evidence that continuous time models with one factor of volatility, in some conditions, are able to fit the main characteristics of financial data. It also reports the importance of the feedback factor in capturing the strong volatility clustering of data, caused by a possible change in the pattern of volatility in the last part of the sample. We use the Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) by Gallant and Tauchen (1996) to estimate logarithmic models with one and two stochastic volatility factors (with and without feedback) and to select among them.

Mediation incomplete information bargaining with filtered communication

We analyze a continuous-time bilateral double auction in the presence of two-sided incomplete information and a smallest money unit. A distinguishing feature of our model is that intermediate concessions are not observable by the adversary: they are only communicated to a passive auctioneer. An alternative interpretation is that of mediated bargaining. We show that an equilibrium using only the extreme agreements always exists and display the necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of (perfect Bayesian) equilibra which yield intermediate agreements. For the symmetric case with uniform type distribution we numerically calculate the equilibria. We find that the equilibrium which does not use compromise agreements is the least efficient, however, the rest of the equilibria yield the lower social welfare the higher number of compromise agreements are used.

Coupling and monotonicity of queueing processes

The main purpose of this work is to give a survey of main monotonicity properties of queueing processes based on the coupling method. The literature on this topic is quite extensive, and we do not consider all aspects of this topic. Our more concrete goal is to select the most interesting basic monotonicity results and give simple and elegant proofs. Also we give a few new (or revised) proofs of a few important monotonicity properties for the queue-size and workload processes both in single-server and multi- server systems. The paper is organized as follows. In Section 1, the basic notions and results on coupling method are given. Section 2 contains known coupling results for renewal processes with focus on construction of synchronized renewal instants for a superposition of independent renewal processes. In Section 3, we present basic monotonicity results for the queue-size and workload processes. We consider both discrete-and continuous-time queueing systems with single and multi servers. Less known results on monotonicity of queueing processes with dependent service times and interarrival times are also presented. Section 4 is devoted to monotonicity of general Jackson-type queueing networks with Markovian routing. This section is based on the notable paper [17]. Finally, Section 5 contains elements of stability analysis of regenerative queues and networks, where coupling and monotonicity results play a crucial role to establish minimal suficient stability conditions. Besides, we present some new monotonicity results for tandem networks.

Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper we therefore contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

Dark Clouds or Silver Linings? Knightian Uncertainty and Climate Change

This paper examines the impact of Knightian uncertainty upon optimal climate policy through the prism of a continuous-time real option modelling framework. We analytically determine optimal intertemporal climate policies under ambiguous assessments of climate damages. Additionally, numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the properties of the model. The results indicate that increasing Knightian uncertainty accelerates climate policy, i.e. policy makers become more reluctant to postpone the timing of climate policies into the future.

Global Warming and Fat Tailed-uncertainty: Rethinking the Timing and Intensity of Climate Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme natural events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

A Folk Theorem for Games when Frequent Monitoring Decreases Noise

This paper studies frequent monitoring in an infinitely repeated game with imperfect public information and discounting, where players observe the state of a continuous time Brownian process at moments in time of length _. It shows that a limit folk theorem can be achieved with imperfect public monitoring when players monitor each other at the highest frequency, i.e., _. The approach assumes that the expected joint output depends exclusively on the action profile simultaneously and privately decided by the players at the beginning of each period of the game, but not on _. The strong decreasing effect on the expected immediate gains from deviation when the interval between actions shrinks, and the associated increase precision of the public signals, make the result possible in the limit. JEL: C72/73, D82, L20. KEYWORDS: Repeated Games, Frequent Monitoring, Public Monitoring, Brownian Motion.

L’impacte de les institucions internacionals sobre la Unió Europea: presa de decisions, integració i europeïtzació

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Center for European Integration de la Freie Universität Berlin, Alemania, entre 2007 i 2009. El tema central del projecte consisteix en la descripció matemàtica de processos espai-temporals mitjançant la teoria dels Continuous-Time Random Walks. L'aportació més significativa del nostre treball en aquest camp consisteix en considerar per primera vegada la interacció entre diversos processos actuant de manera acoblada, ja que fins ara els models existents es limitaven a l'estudi de processos individuals o independents. Aquesta idea fa possible, per exemple, plantejar un sistema de transport en l'espai i a la vegada un procés de reacció (una reacció química, per exemple), i estudiar estadísticament com cada un pot alterar el comportament de l'altre. Això suposa un salt qualitatiu important en la descripció de processos de reacció-dispersió, ja que els nostres models permeten incorporar patrons de dispersió i comportaments temporals (cicles de vida) força realistes en comparació amb els models convencionals. Per tal de completar aquest treball teòric ha estat necessari també desenvolupar algunes eines numèriques (models de xarxa) per facilitar la implementació dels models. En la vessant pràctica, hem aplicat aquestes idees al cas de la dinàmica entre virus i el sistema immunològic que té lloc quan es produeix una infecció a l'organisme. Diferents estudis experimentals portats a terme els últims anys mostren com la resposta immunològica dels organismes superiors presenta una dinàmica temporal força complexa (per exemple, en el cas de la resposta programada). Per aquest motiu, les nostres tècniques matemàtiques són d'especial utilitat per a l'anàlisi d'aquests sistemes. Finalment, altres possibles aplicacions dels models, com ara l'estudi d'invasions biològiques, també han estat considerades.

Melanopsin as a sleep modulator: circadian gating of the direct effects of light on sleep and altered sleep homeostasis in Opn4(-/-) mice.

Light influences sleep and alertness either indirectly through a well-characterized circadian pathway or directly through yet poorly understood mechanisms. Melanopsin (Opn4) is a retinal photopigment crucial for conveying nonvisual light information to the brain. Through extensive characterization of sleep and the electrocorticogram (ECoG) in melanopsin-deficient (Opn4(-/-)) mice under various light-dark (LD) schedules, we assessed the role of melanopsin in mediating the effects of light on sleep and ECoG activity. In control mice, a light pulse given during the habitual dark period readily induced sleep, whereas a dark pulse given during the habitual light period induced waking with pronounced theta (7-10 Hz) and gamma (40-70 Hz) activity, the ECoG correlates of alertness. In contrast, light failed to induce sleep in Opn4(-/-) mice, and the dark-pulse-induced increase in theta and gamma activity was delayed. A 24-h recording under a LD 1-hratio1-h schedule revealed that the failure to respond to light in Opn4(-/-) mice was restricted to the subjective dark period. Light induced c-Fos immunoreactivity in the suprachiasmatic nuclei (SCN) and in sleep-active ventrolateral preoptic (VLPO) neurons was importantly reduced in Opn4(-/-) mice, implicating both sleep-regulatory structures in the melanopsin-mediated effects of light. In addition to these acute light effects, Opn4(-/-) mice slept 1 h less during the 12-h light period of a LD 12ratio12 schedule owing to a lengthening of waking bouts. Despite this reduction in sleep time, ECoG delta power, a marker of sleep need, was decreased in Opn4(-/-) mice for most of the (subjective) dark period. Delta power reached after a 6-h sleep deprivation was similarly reduced in Opn4(-/-) mice. In mice, melanopsin's contribution to the direct effects of light on sleep is limited to the dark or active period, suggesting that at this circadian phase, melanopsin compensates for circadian variations in the photo sensitivity of other light-encoding pathways such as rod and cones. Our study, furthermore, demonstrates that lack of melanopsin alters sleep homeostasis. These findings call for a reevaluation of the role of light on mammalian physiology and behavior.

Carbon isotope excursions and microfacies changes in marine Permian-Triassic boundary sections in Hungary

Several Permian-Triassic boundary sections occur in various structural units within Hungary. These sections represent different facies zones of the western Palaeotethys margin. The Gardony core in the NE part of the Transdanubian Range typically represents the inner ramp, while the Balvany section in the Bukk Mountains of northern Hungary represents an outer ramp setting. The two sections have different patterns for their delta(13)C values. The Balvany section shows a continuous change towards more negative delta(13)C values starting at the first biotic decline, followed by a sharp, quasi-symmetric negative peak at the second decline. The appearance of the delta(13)C peak has no relationship to the lithology and occurs within a shale with low overall carbonate content, indicating that the peak is not related to diagenesis or other secondary influences. Instead, the shift and the peak reflect primary processes related to changes in environmental conditions. The continuous shift in delta(13)C values is most probably related to a decrease in bioproductivity, whereas the sharp peak can be attributed to an addition of C strongly depleted in (13)C to the ocean-atmosphere system. The most plausible model is a massive release of methane-hydrate. The quasi-symmetric pattern suggests a rapid warming-cooling cycle or physical unroofing of sediments through slope-failure and releasing methane-hydrate. The Gidony-1 core shows a continuous negative delta(13)C shift starting below the P-T boundary. However, the detailed analyses revealed a sharp delta(13)C peak in the boundary interval, just below the major biotic decline, although its magnitude doesn't reach that observed in the Balvany section. Based on careful textural examination and high-resolution stable isotope microanalyses we suggest that the suppression of the delta(13)C peak that is common in the oolitic boundary sections is due to combined effects of condensed sedimentation, sediment reworking and erosion, as well as perhaps diagenesis. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

An in vitro model for dengue virus infection that exhibits human monocyte infection, multiple cytokine production and dexamethasone immunomodulation

An important cytokine role in dengue fever pathogenesis has been described. These molecules can be associated with haemorrhagic manifestations, coagulation disorders, hypotension and shock, all symptoms implicated in vascular permeability and disease worsening conditions. Several immunological diseases have been treated by cytokine modulation and dexamethasone is utilized clinically to treat pathologies with inflammatory and autoimmune ethiologies. We established an in vitro model with human monocytes infected by dengue virus-2 for evaluating immunomodulatory and antiviral activities of potential pharmaceutical products. Flow cytometry analysis demonstrated significant dengue antigen detection in target cells two days after infection. TNF-alpha, IFN-alpha, IL-6 and IL-10 are produced by in vitro infected monocytes and are significantly detected in cell culture supernatants by multiplex microbead immunoassay. Dexamethasone action was tested for the first time for its modulation in dengue infection, presenting optimistic results in both decreasing cell infection rates and inhibiting TNF-alpha, IFN-alpha and IL-10 production. This model is proposed for novel drug trials yet to be applyed for dengue fever.

Analysis and Monte Carlo simulations of a model for the spread of infectious diseases in heterogeneous metapopulations

We present a study of the continuous-time equations governing the dynamics of a susceptible infected-susceptible model on heterogeneous metapopulations. These equations have been recently proposed as an alternative formulation for the spread of infectious diseases in metapopulations in a continuous-time framework. Individual-based Monte Carlo simulations of epidemic spread in uncorrelated networks are also performed revealing a good agreement with analytical predictions under the assumption of simultaneous transmission or recovery and migration processes