Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is There A Causal Link?

[spa] La estimaci��n del impacto del tama��o de la populaci��n sobre la probabilidad de conflicto civil se complica por el sesgo de endogeneidad y las variables omitidas. Este art��culo trata el problema de causalidad utilizando m��todos de variables instrumentales en un panel de 37 pa��ses del ��frica Sub-sahariana en el per��odo 1981-2004. Encontramos que un aumento de la poblaci��n en un 1% aumenta la probabilidad de conflicto civil por un 5.2%.

Development process and initial validation of the ethical conflict in nursing questionnaire-critical care version

Background: Ethical conflicts are arising as a result of the growing complexity of clinical care, coupled with technological advances. Most studies that have developed instruments for measuring ethical conflict base their measures on the variables"frequency" and"degree of conflict". In our view, however, these variables are insufficient for explaining the root of ethical conflicts. Consequently, the present study formulates a conceptual model that also includes the variable"exposure to conflict", as well as considering six"types of ethical conflict". An instrument was then designed to measure the ethical conflicts experienced by nurses who work with critical care patients. The paper describes the development process and validation of this instrument, the Ethical Conflict in Nursing Questionnaire Critical Care Version (ECNQ-CCV). Methods: The sample comprised 205 nursing professionals from the critical care units of two hospitals in Barcelona (Spain). The ECNQ-CCV presents 19 nursing scenarios with the potential to produce ethical conflict in the critical care setting. Exposure to ethical conflict was assessed by means of the Index of Exposure to Ethical Conflict (IEEC), a specific index developed to provide a reference value for each respondent by combining the intensity and frequency of occurrence of each scenario featured in the ECNQ-CCV. Following content validity, construct validity was assessed by means of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), while Cronbach"s alpha was used to evaluate the instrument"s reliability. All analyses were performed using the statistical software PASW v19. Results: Cronbach"s alpha for the ECNQ-CCV as a whole was 0.882, which is higher than the values reported for certain other related instruments. The EFA suggested a unidimensional structure, with one component accounting for 33.41% of the explained variance. Conclusions: The ECNQ-CCV is shown to a valid and reliable instrument for use in critical care units. Its structure is such that the four variables on which our model of ethical conflict is based may be studied separately or in combination. The critical care nurses in this sample present moderate levels of exposure to ethical conflict. This study represents the first evaluation of the ECNQ-CCV.

Development process and initial validation of the ethical conflict in nursing questionnaire-critical care version

Background: Ethical conflicts are arising as a result of the growing complexity of clinical care, coupled with technological advances. Most studies that have developed instruments for measuring ethical conflict base their measures on the variables"frequency" and"degree of conflict". In our view, however, these variables are insufficient for explaining the root of ethical conflicts. Consequently, the present study formulates a conceptual model that also includes the variable"exposure to conflict", as well as considering six"types of ethical conflict". An instrument was then designed to measure the ethical conflicts experienced by nurses who work with critical care patients. The paper describes the development process and validation of this instrument, the Ethical Conflict in Nursing Questionnaire Critical Care Version (ECNQ-CCV). Methods: The sample comprised 205 nursing professionals from the critical care units of two hospitals in Barcelona (Spain). The ECNQ-CCV presents 19 nursing scenarios with the potential to produce ethical conflict in the critical care setting. Exposure to ethical conflict was assessed by means of the Index of Exposure to Ethical Conflict (IEEC), a specific index developed to provide a reference value for each respondent by combining the intensity and frequency of occurrence of each scenario featured in the ECNQ-CCV. Following content validity, construct validity was assessed by means of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), while Cronbach"s alpha was used to evaluate the instrument"s reliability. All analyses were performed using the statistical software PASW v19. Results: Cronbach"s alpha for the ECNQ-CCV as a whole was 0.882, which is higher than the values reported for certain other related instruments. The EFA suggested a unidimensional structure, with one component accounting for 33.41% of the explained variance. Conclusions: The ECNQ-CCV is shown to a valid and reliable instrument for use in critical care units. Its structure is such that the four variables on which our model of ethical conflict is based may be studied separately or in combination. The critical care nurses in this sample present moderate levels of exposure to ethical conflict. This study represents the first evaluation of the ECNQ-CCV.

Reactive Recruitment of Attentional Control in Math Anxiety: An ERP Study of Numeric Conflict Monitoring and Adaptation

This study uses event-related brain potentials (ERPs) to investigate the electrophysiological correlates of numeric conflict monitoring in math-anxious individuals, by analyzing whether math anxiety is related to abnormal processing in early conflict detection (as shown by the N450 component) and/or in a later, response-related stage of processing (as shown by the conflict sustained potential; Conflict-SP). Conflict adaptation effects were also studied by analyzing the effect of the previous trial"s congruence in current interference. To this end, 17 low math-anxious (LMA)and 17 high math-anxious (HMA) individuals were presented with a numerical Stroop task. Groups were extreme in math anxiety but did not differ in trait or state anxiety or in simple math ability. The interference effect of the current trial (incongruent-congruent) and the interference effect preceded by congruence and by incongruity were analyzed both for behavioral measures and for ERPs. A greater interference effect was found for response times in the HMA group than in the LMA one. Regarding ERPs, the LMA group showed a greater N450 component for the interference effect preceded by congruence than when preceded by incongruity, while the HMA group showed greater Conflict-SP amplitude for the interference effect preceded by congruence than when preceded by incongruity. Our study showed that the electrophysiological correlates of numeric interference in HMA individuals comprise the absence of a conflict adaptation effect in the first stage of conflict processing (N450) and an abnormal subsequent up-regulation of cognitive control in order to overcome the conflict (Conflict-SP). More concretely, our study shows that math anxiety is related to a reactive and compensatory recruitment of control resources that is implemented only when previously exposed to a stimuli presenting conflicting information

Europeanisation and Conflict Resolution: The Case of Cyprus

This paper investigates the example of Cyprus as a case study for the Europeanisation of conflict resolution. The argument advanced is that the European Union (EU) impacts the positions of the parts of the conflict (here, Greek Cypriots, Turkish Cypriots and Turkey) but not always towards the resolution of the dispute and compliance with EU conditionality. Conformity with EU conditionality depends on its credibility, which is decreased by the internalisation of the conflict into the EU. In this context, this work contributes to the discussion on Europeanisation and the aptitude of the EU in conflict resolution as well as the role of the EU in the Cyprus conflict during the post-accession years.

Operational sex ratio, sexual conflict and the intensity of sexual selection.

Modern sexual selection theory indicates that reproductive costs rather than the operational sex ratio predict the intensity of sexual selection. We investigated sexual selection in the polygynandrous common lizard Lacerta vivipara. This species shows male aggression, causing high mating costs for females when adult sex ratios (ASR) are male-biased. We manipulated ASR in 12 experimental populations and quantified the intensity of sexual selection based on the relationship between reproductive success and body size. In sharp contrast to classical sexual selection theory predictions, positive directional sexual selection on male size was stronger and positive directional selection on female size weaker in female-biased populations than in male-biased populations. Thus, consistent with modern theory, directional sexual selection on male size was weaker in populations with higher female mating costs. This suggests that the costs of breeding, but not the operational sex ratio, correctly predicted the strength of sexual selection.

Conflict over multiple-partner mating between males and females of the polygynandrous common lizards.

The optimal number of mate partners for females rarely coincides with that for males, leading to a potential sexual conflict over multiple-partner mating. This suggests that the population sex ratio may affect multiple-partner mating and thus multiple paternity. We investigate the relationship between multiple paternity and the population sex ratio in the polygynandrous common lizard (Lacerta vivipara). In six populations the adult sex ratio was biased toward males, and in another six populations the adult sex ratio was biased toward females, the latter corresponding to the average adult sex ratio encountered in natural populations. In males the frequency and the degree of polygyny were lower in male-biased populations, as expected if competition among males determines polygyny. In females the frequency of polyandry was not different between treatments, and polyandrous females produced larger clutches, suggesting that polyandry might be adaptive. However, in male-biased populations females suffered from reduced reproductive success compared to female-biased populations, and the number of mate partners increased with female body size in polyandrous females. Polyandrous females of male-biased populations showed disproportionately more mating scars, indicating that polyandrous females of male-biased populations had more interactions with males and suggesting that the degree of multiple paternity is controlled by male sexual harassment. Our results thus imply that polyandry may be hierarchically controlled, with females controlling when to mate with multiple partners and male sexual harassment being a proximate determinant of the degree of multiple paternity. The results are also consistent with a sexual conflict in which male behaviors are harmful to females.

World Polarization in carbon emissions, potential conflict and groups: an updated revision

Typically, conflicts in world environmental negotiations are related, amongst other aspects, to the level of polarization of the countries in groups with conflicting interests. Given the predictable relationship between polarization and conflict, it would seem logical to evaluate the degree to which the distribution of countries ��� for example, in terms of their CO2 emissions per capita ��� would be structured through groups which in themselves are antagonistic, as well as their evolution over time. This paper takes the concept of polarization to explore this distribution for the period 1992-2010, looking at different analytic approaches related to the concept. Specifically, it makes a comparative evaluation of the results associated with endogenous multi-polarization measures (i.e. EGR and DER indices), exogenous measures (i.e. Z-K or multidimensional index) and strict bipolarization measures (i.e. Wolfson���s measure). Indeed, the interest lies not only in evaluating the global situation of polarization by comparing the different approaches and their temporal patterns, but also in examining the explanatory capacity of the different proxy groups used as a possible reference for designing global environmental policy from a group premise. JEL codes: D39; Q43; Q56. Key words: polarization; carbon emissions; conflict;

Essays on the Economics of Conflict and Migration

Les conflits civils sont des ��v��nements dramatiques qui poussent les individus hors de leurs pays d'origine. Mais si l'��migration ��tait elle-m��me une force pacificatrice? Dans les deux premiers chapitres, je me suis int��ress��e �� l'impact de l'��migration sur l'incidence des conflits civils dans les pays d'origine. Tout d'abord, je construis un mod��le th��orique d'��quilibre g��n��ral, dans lequel le niveau de conflit d'��quilibre est d��termin�� par la ratio de combattants dans l'��conomie. Dans ce mod��le, l'��migration d��courage les conflits en r��duisant les gains d'une r��bellion, tout en augmentant le co��t d'opportunit�� des combats. La principale pr��diction du mod��le est que le conflit diminue avec le niveau du salaire ��tranger net des co��ts de migration. Dans le deuxi��me chapitre, je teste cette pr��diction empiriquement. En utilisant une variable instrumentale, je d��montre que l'��migration vers les pays d��velopp��s diminue l'incidence de guerres civiles dans les pays d'origine. Ces r��sultats prouvent qu'en ouvrant leurs fronti��res, les pays d'accueil pourraient contribuer �� sauver des vies, aussi bien celles des migrants que celles des habitants rest��s dans leur pays. De plus, les conflits civils tendent �� d��truire des soci��t��s en traumatisant les personnes touch��es, augmentant ainsi le risque des conflits futurs. Afin de mieux comprendre ce cercle vicieux et de pouvoir y rem��dier, le troisi��me chapitre d��termine si les enfants ayant v��cu la guerre ont une tendance �� ��tre plus violent que des co-nationaux n��s apr��s la guerre. L'analyse se concentre sur les demandeurs d'asile en Suisse : Cette population est int��ressante puisque l'allocation des demandeurs d'asile entre cantons est al��atoire, ce qui pr��vient le choix d'un canton avec un taux de criminalit�� plus ��lev��. Les r��sultats d��montrent un effet de traumatisme caus�� par la guerre augmentant ainsi le risque de criminalit�� dans la vie adulte. Cependant, l'analyse de politiques publiques montre que la mise en place de politiques judicieuses permet d'��viter les cons��quences de l'exposition �� la guerre. En particulier, en offrant aux nouveaux arrivants l'acc��s au march�� de travail ainsi que des perspectives �� long-terme, la Suisse peut ��liminer compl��tement l'effet du traumatisme sur la criminalit��.

Conflicto, colaboraci��n y consenso en la ense��anza de las ciencias sociales = Conflict, collaboration and consensus in the teaching of the Social sciences

This article suggests the study of the key concept of conflict as a means of implementing a critical and communicativecurriculum based on the study of relevant social themes. To this end we put forward the principal characteristics of thecritical/communicative curriculum. We offer a didactic proposal about conflict and explain the results of its application intwo Secondary Education classrooms

K��sitteen pre-conflict k��siteanalyysi

Maailmassa on t��ll��kin hetkell�� k��ynniss�� useita sotaan rinnastettavia aseellisia selkkauksia. K��site sota on kuitenkin menett��nyt merkityst����n ja sen on korvanneet k��sitteet kuten aseellinen selkkaus ja konflikti. Kansainv��lisess�� ja humanitaarisessa oikeudessa on ep��onnistuttu k��sitteiden m����rittelyss��, mik�� on luonut haasteita lakien ja s����d��sten tulkintaan. Sodankuvan muutoksen ja kansainv��lisen oikeuden kehittymisen my��t�� my��s sodan julistus on menett��nyt merkityksens��, mik�� on johtanut siihen, ett�� aseellisten selkkausten ja konfliktien alkuajankohtaa on hyvin vaikea m����ritell��. T��ss�� tutkimuksessa avataan ja selvennet����n k��sitteen pre-conflict merkitys k��siteanalyysin avulla. P����m����r��n�� ei ole k����nt���� k��sitett�� suomeksi, vaan tuottaa lis���� tietoa k��sitteest��. Tutkimusaineistona k��ytet����n EU:n, YK:n sek�� Naton virallisia tiedotteita vuonna 2011 alkaneesta Syyrian tilanteesta. Analyysin avulla saavutetaan ymm��rrys EU:n, YK:n sek�� Naton k��sitteiden k��yt��lle, jonka avulla k��sitteen pre-conflict ominaispiirteet, s����nn��nmukaisuudet ja syysuhteet kyet����n tunnistamaan. Analyysin ensimm��isess�� osassa keskityt����n k��sitteen osien alkuper��n tunnistamiseen ja analyysin tavoitteiden asettamiseen. Seuraavassa osassa Syyrian tilanteelle suoritetaan perusteellinen analyysi, jonka avulla k��sitteen ominaispiirteet kyet����n tunnistamaan. P����k��site erotetaan sen l��hik��sitteist�� sota, sis��llissota sek�� kriisi ja sen pohjalta k��sitteelle luodaan ennakkoehdot ja seuraukset. Lopuksi pragmaattisuuden tavoittelemiseksi k��sitteelle luodaan malliesimerkki Syyrian tilanteeseen sitoen. Tutkielma tiivistyy empiiriseen malliin, josta k��sitteen tarkasteleminen yksinkertaistuu. Laajan kirjallisuuskatsauksen tuloksena voidaan k��sitteen todeta tarkoittavan aikaa ennen konfliktia. K��site konflikti on rinnastettavissa kansainv��lisess�� oikeuden tunnistamaan aseelliseen selkkaukseen. Keskeisimm��t tutkimustulokset liittyv��t k��sitteen pre-conflict ajalliseen rajaukseen. Ajallisesti pre-conflict-ajan alku rajautuu yksitt��iseen tapahtumaan, mink�� j��lkeen tilanne ei tule p����ttym����n ennen kuin aseellinen selkkaus on saavuttanut ratkaisunsa. Pre-conflict-aika rajaa rauhanajan sek�� erilaiset yhteiskunnalliset h��iri��tilanteet ajasta, jolloin h��iri��tilanteet eskaloituvat aseelliseksi selkkaukseksi sek�� aikaan jolloin tilanne on jo eskaloitunut aseelliseksi selkkaukseksi. Kohdistettaessa tutkimusta aikaan ennen aseellisen selkkauksen alkua saadaan tietoa eskaloitumisen syist��, jolloin ennaltaehk��isev��t toimenpiteet olisivat hy��dynnett��viss�� alkavissa tilanteissa. Sotilaallisiin kriiseihin tai aseellisiin selkkauksiin liittyy voimakeinojen k��ytt��, joita s����nnell����n kansallisessa lains����d��nn��ss��. Voimank��ytt�� perustuu osittain kansainv��lisen oikeuteen ja niiden sopimuksiin, joissa s����det����n muun muassa suhteellisen voimank��yt��n periaate. Siin�� miss�� rauhanaikana varaudutaan erin��isiin uhkatilanteisiin ja laaditaan suunnitelmia h��iri��tiloja ja poikkeusoloja varten, tulisi my��s varautua poistamalla k��sitteisiin liittyv��t ep��selvyydet. Laatimalla malleja, joiden avulla alkavat tilanteet tai aseelliset selkkaukset tunnistetaan ajoissa, mahdollistetaan oikeanaikainen p����t��ksenteko ja ennaltaehk��isev��t toimenpiteet.

Liminal Monster and the Conflict Between Human and Machine: The Shrike in Dan Simmons��� Hyperion and The Fall of Hyperion

Tarkastelen tutkielmassani Dan Simmonsin kaksiosaista tieteisfiktioteosta, joka koostuu romaaneista Hyperion ja The Fall of Hyperion. Keskityn teoksissa esiintyv����n Shrike-hirvi����n, joka edustaa ihmiskunnan pelk����m���� potentiaalista konfliktia ihmisten ja koneiden v��lill��. Pelko ja konflikti ovat keskeisi�� teemoja paitsi tieteisfiktiossa, my��s hirvi��teoksissa yleens��, ja n��iden kahden k��ytt�� samassa kertomuksessa luo otolliset edellytykset nyky-yhteiskunnan ahdistusten kuvaamiseen. Hirvi��it�� ja tieteisfiktiota on t��t�� nyky�� tutkittu melko laajalti, mutta Shrike on aiemmin j����nyt v��h��lle huomiolle. L��ht��kohtaisen teoreettisen viitekehyksen tutkimukselleni ovat luoneet Jeffrey Cohenin Monster Theory: Reading Culture, Stephen Asman On Monsters: An Unnatural History of Our Worst Fears sek�� Holly Lynn Baumgartnerin ja Roger Davisin At the Interface: Hosting the Monster. Teoksista kokoamani hirvi��teorian kautta tarkastelen sit��, miten Shriken puoliksi orgaaninen ja puoliksi keinotekoinen keho heijastaa niit�� romaaneissa esiintyvi�� osa-alueita, joista tulevaisuudenpelko ja ihmisten ja koneiden v��liseen konfliktin uhka koostuu. Koska Shrike on puoliksi orgaaninen ja puoliksi keinotekoinen, se on n��iden ominaisuuksien kynnyksell��; t��ss�� risteytyneess�� kehossa yhdistyv��t molemmat ����rip����t, jolloin t��m�� keho my��s symboloi osapuolten v��list�� konfliktia. Konfliktin lis��ksi Shrike ilment���� niit�� vastakkaisuuksia, joista ihmisten ja koneiden v��lisen konfliktin pelko rakentuu: itseytt�� ja toiseutta, houkuttelevuutta ja luotaanty��nt��vyytt��, menneisyytt�� ja tulevaisuutta sek�� utopiaa ja dystopiaa.