Demanda por veículos novos no Brasil: uma análise robusta a quebras estruturais

O setor automotivo é bastante representativo na economia nacional, o que motivou a realização deste estudo sobre a demanda por veículos novos no Brasil. No presente trabalho, é abordado um modelo econométrico que permite calcular as elasticidades do preço, da renda e do crédito em relação à demanda por veículos, sob a luz da teoria da cointegração. Analisando-se o período de junho de 2000 a janeiro de 2014, verifica-se a ocorrência de três quebras estruturais. Estas quebras dividem o intervalo de tempo analisado em quatro subperíodos, cada um com uma dinâmica própria. A constatação deste fato, muitas vezes negligenciado na literatura científica prévia, é um dos principais resultados deste trabalho: afinal, conclusões bastante distintas seriam obtidas ao se considerar o período todo sem quebras. Vale também destacar que o crédito se mostrou relevante para a demanda em todos os subperíodos: acredita-se, portanto, ser efetiva a implementação de uma política de estímulo ao setor, por meio do incentivo ao crédito. Por último, comenta-se que, no passado recente, a cada 1% de redução no preço do automóvel, a demanda aumentou numa proporção 30% maior. Este resultado corrobora com a percepção de que a redução de impostos pode alavancar a venda de veículos.

Assessing interdependence among countries' fundamentals and its implications for exchange rate misalignment estimates: An empirical exercise based on GVAR

Exchange rates are important macroeconomic prices and changes in these rates a ect economic activity, prices, interest rates, and trade ows. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that the global vector autoregressions model (GVAR) proposed by Pesaran and co-authors can add relevant information to the literature on measuring exchange rate misalignment. Our empirical exercise suggests that the estimate exchange rate misalignment obtained from GVAR can be quite di erent to that using the traditional cointegrated time series techniques, which treat countries as detached entities. The di erences between the two approaches are more pronounced for small and developing countries. Our results also suggest a strong interdependence among eurozone countries, as expected

Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States

Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that it is possible to calculate the misalignment from a mixed ointegrated vector error correction framework. An empirical exercise using United States' real exchange rate data is performed. The results suggest that the model with mixed frequency data is preferred to the models with same frequency variables

Consumption-wealth ratio and expected stock returns: evidence from panel data

This paper investigates the role of consumption-wealth ratio on predicting future stock returns through a panel approach. We follow the theoretical framework proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), in which a model derived from a nonlinear consumer’s budget constraint is used to settle the link between consumption-wealth ratio and stock returns. Using G7’s quarterly aggregate and financial data ranging from the first quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of 2014, we set an unbalanced panel that we use for both estimating the parameters of the cointegrating residual from the shared trend among consumption, asset wealth and labor income, cay, and performing in and out-of-sample forecasting regressions. Due to the panel structure, we propose different methodologies of estimating cay and making forecasts from the one applied by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001). The results indicate that cay is in fact a strong and robust predictor of future stock return at intermediate and long horizons, but presents a poor performance on predicting one or two-quarter-ahead stock returns.

Avaliando técnicas de nowcasting: uma aplicação do PIB brasileiro

O objetivo deste trabalho é aplicar e avaliar o desempenho do conceito de técnicas de nowcasting para previsão de uma importante variável macroeconômica do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) brasileiro. Nos últimos anos, novas técnicas vêm sendo propostas e aprimoradas. Comparam-se diferentes modelos de nowcasting frente a um benchmarking, avaliando a relevância das variáveis a partir do Autometrics, que foi desenvolvido por Doornik (2011). A proposta é reunir diversos indicadores econômicos da economia brasileira que possam em maior ou menor grau antecipar a variação do PIB. Será utilizada a técnica de variáveis dummies com saturação (proposta por Johansen et. al.) para controlar possíveis quebras e outliers. Esta abordagem é adequada para um ambiente econômico instável, com constantes mudanças ao longo do tempo.

Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates

Exchange rate misalignment assessment is becoming more relevant in recent period particularly after the nancial crisis of 2008. There are di erent methodologies to address real exchange rate misalignment. The real exchange misalignment is de ned as the di erence between actual real e ective exchange rate and some equilibrium norm. Di erent norms are available in the literature. Our paper aims to contribute to the literature by showing that Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach (BEER) adopted by Clark & MacDonald (1999), Ubide et al. (1999), Faruqee (1994), Aguirre & Calderón (2005) and Kubota (2009) among others can be improved in two following manners. The rst one consists of jointly modeling real e ective exchange rate, trade balance and net foreign asset position. The second one has to do with the possibility of explicitly testing over identifying restrictions implied by economic theory and allowing the analyst to show that these restrictions are not falsi ed by the empirical evidence. If the economic based identifying restrictions are not rejected it is also possible to decompose exchange rate misalignment in two pieces, one related to long run fundamentals of exchange rate and the other related to external account imbalances. We also discuss some necessary conditions that should be satis ed for disrcarding trade balance information without compromising exchange rate misalignment assessment. A statistical (but not a theoretical) identifying strategy for calculating exchange rate misalignment is also discussed. We illustrate the advantages of our approach by analyzing the Brazilian case. We show that the traditional approach disregard important information of external accounts equilibrium for this economy.

Influência das principais commodities agropecuárias e de variáveis macroeconômicas sobre os preços da terra agrícola no Brasil

Este trabalho tem como proposta investigar como o preço de terras de uso rural no Brasil é afetado pelos preços e exportações das principais commodities agropecuárias, bem como por variáveis macroeconômicas, como taxa básica de juros, taxa de câmbio, taxa de inflação e disponibilidade de crédito agrícola. Para tal foram consideradas as produções agrícola de algodão, café, cana-de-açúcar (e seus principais produtos açúcar e etanol), milho e soja, a produção pecuária de carne bovina e a produção industrial de celulose de fibra curta com foco em sua principal matéria prima, os plantios reflorestados de eucalipto. Em linha com estudos anteriores, foi encontrada evidência empírica de que o preço da terra possui cointegração com algumas das variáveis agrícolas, pecuárias e florestais citadas, em especial em estados com maior vocação agropecuária e/ou para silvicultura. Quanto às variáveis macroeconômicas, apenas a taxa básica de juros apresentou cointegração com o preço de terras para todos os estados avaliados, taxa de câmbio e disponibilidade de crédito rural não aparecem como variáveis estatisticamente significantes. Conclui-se que, para estados com notável participação na balança comercial brasileira de produtos agrossilvipastoris, é possível obter um modelo de equilibro de longo prazo entre o preço da terra de uso rural e as variáveis destacadas acima, de modo que investidores do setor possam utilizá-lo como ferramenta de projeção no auxílio da tomada de decisão além de avaliar potenciais impactos no valor de seus ativos A inovação do presente estudo está em testar as hipóteses de cointegração para cada um dos estados da federação.

Characterization of the genetic diversity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in São Paulo city, Brazil

Background: Tuberculosis is a major health problem in São Paulo, Brazil, which is the most populous and one of the most cosmopolitan cities in South America. To characterize the genetic diversity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the population of this city, the genotyping techniques of spoligotyping and MIRU were applied to 93 isolates collected in two consecutive years from 93 different tuberculosis patients residing in São Paulo city and attending the Clemente Ferreira Institute (the reference clinic for the treatment of tuberculosis). Findings. Spoligotyping generated 53 different spoligotype patterns. Fifty-one isolates (54.8%) were grouped into 13 spoligotyping clusters. Seventy- two strains (77.4%) showed spoligotypes described in the international databases (SpolDB4, SITVIT), and 21 (22.6%) showed unidentified patterns. The most frequent spoligotype families were Latin American Mediterranean (LAM) (26 isolates), followed by the T family (24 isolates) and Haarlem (H) (11 isolates), which together accounted for 65.4% of all the isolates. These three families represent the major genotypes found in Africa, Central America, South America and Europe. Six Spoligo-International- types (designated SITs by the database) comprised 51.8% (37/72) of all the identified spoligotypes (SIT53, SIT50, SIT42, SIT60, SIT17 and SIT1). Other SITs found in this study indicated the great genetic diversity of M. tuberculosis, reflecting the remarkable ethnic diversity of São Paulo city inhabitants. The MIRU technique was more discriminatory and did not identify any genetic clusters with 100% similarity among the 93 isolates. The allelic analysis showed that MIRU loci 26, 40, 23 and 10 were the most discriminatory. When MIRU and spoligotyping techniques were combined, all isolates grouped in the 13 spoligotyping clusters were separated. Conclusions: Our data indicated the genomic stability of over 50% of spoligotypes identified in São Paulo and the great genetic diversity of M. tuberculosis isolates in the remaining SITs, reflecting the large ethnic mix of the São Paulo city inhabitants. The results also indicated that in this city, M. tuberculosis isolates acquired drug resistance independently of genotype and that resistance was more dependent on the selective pressure of treatment failure and the environmental circumstances of patients. © 2011 Leite et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Visualizing the ac magnetic susceptibility of superconducting films via magneto-optical imaging

We have established a link between the global ac response and the local flux distribution of superconducting films by combining magnetic ac susceptibility, dc magnetization, and magneto-optical measurements. The investigated samples are three Nb films: a plain specimen, used as a reference sample, and other two films patterned with square arrays of antidots. At low temperatures and small ac amplitudes of the excitation field, the Meissner screening prevents penetration of flux into the sample. Above a certain ac drive threshold, flux avalanches are triggered during the first cycle of the ac excitation. The subsequent periodic removal, inversion, and rise of flux occurs essentially through the already-created dendrites, giving rise to an ac susceptibility signal weakly dependent on the applied field. The intradendrite flux oscillation is followed, at higher values of the excitation field, by a more drastic process consisting of creation of new dendrites and antidendrites. In this more invasive regime, the ac susceptibility shows a clear field dependence. At higher temperatures a smooth penetration occurs, and the flux profile is characteristic of a critical state. We have also shown that the regime dominated by vortex avalanches can be reliably identified by ac susceptibility measurements. © 2011 American Physical Society.

Morphology of flux avalanches in patterned superconducting films

It is well known that under certain circumstances, magnetic fields applied perpendicularly to the plane of superconducting films can trigger flux avalanches. In such cases, the penetration has a tree-like profile. However, in samples where a regular array of antidots, ADs, is present, the avalanches follow the rows of ADs as if they were guiding lines for the abrupt penetration. In this work, we used the magnetooptical imaging technique to study the morphology of flux avalanches in two Nb films with a square lattice of square ADs, each one with a different lateral size, and a plain film for reference. We show that the morphology of the flux avalanches is greatly influenced by the size of the interstitial region. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Análise comparada do IGP e IPCs no período 1999-2005: impactos distributivos

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Dívida pública brasileira (1822-2004): sua história e os efeitos sobre o crescimento econômico

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)